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Begin New Search Topic Security Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Oxford Analytica

11. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

12. CIAO: International — Organic Pollutants

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
Topic:
Security and Environment
Political Geography:
Russia

13. Russia — Intelligence Influence

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia

14. Lebanon — Border Deployment Doubts

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

15. International -- Problematic Piracy

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
Topic:
Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore

16. Colombia -- Peace Process

Author:
first last
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

17. Europe—Defence Cooperation

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
European defence cooperation will be a key issue at this week's European Council (EC) summit. It looks likely that ministers will agree that Europe should move towards an autonomous military capability independent of NATO. However, significant problems remain before these plans can be realised in operational terms.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

18. Russia—Caucasian Consequences

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Caucasus

19. Russia—Dagestan Crisis

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The present incursion of Islamic rebels into Dagestan is not the prelude to a re-run of the Chechen war across the Russian periphery. However, it highlights Moscow's failure to adequately monitor developments in the North Caucasus region and the lack of military preparedness for dealing with internal rebellions. Despite the potential for increased violence, weak central government control is likely to prevail across the region, but only because for the majority of the local population, the alternatives appear even less palatable.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Islam
Political Geography:
Russia and North Caucasus

20. Iran — Protest Aftermath

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East