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2. International — Steel Glut
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- OECD members meet in Paris today and tomorrow in the fourth high-level forum on reducing global steel production capacity. The world steel trade is more unsettled than at any time in the last twenty years. Surplus capacity is holding prices down and harming otherwise competitive manufacturers.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
3. International — Global Economy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
4. Eastern Europe — Monetary Integration
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece focuses on the role of ERM II in the East European accession candidate countries. The EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism has emerged as the primary vehicle for the integration of the CEEC-10 accession countries into the European Monetary Union.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5. Argentina — Beleaguered Banks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of the economic crisis on the Argentine banking sector. The collapse of the peso-dollar peg dealt a serious blow to the already weakened Argentine banking system, which now faces a significant restructuring process.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
6. European Union — Insecure Recovery
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7. International — Steel Fortress
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The United States on March 5 announced tariffs on the vast majority of US steel imports. Despite rumours that he would impose moderate duties, US President Bush levied 30% tariffs on the types of steel accounting for about three-quarters of steel imports. Given that these duties follow hundreds of anti-dumping duties imposed on steel products over the past three years, the decision means that virtually no foreign steel will be sold in the United States. It will also have a host of unforeseen international consequences.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
8. South-East Asia — Investment Lessons
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece focuses on mixed successes of intra-regional mergers and acquisitions in South-east Asia. Large South-east Asian firms have been enthusiastic investors within the region, with mixed results. Successful intra-regional investment is important for developing a greater domestic demand structure in the region and reducing reliance on external demand.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
9. International — Nuclear Terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar on November 15 threatened widespread destruction in the United States. Mullah Omar's ambiguous threat of large-scale destruction and Osama bin Laden's explicit claim to possess nuclear weapons raise questions about the likelihood of nuclear terrorism and highlight the importance of protecting sources of highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Technical barriers need not be considered sufficient to prevent the use of nuclear devices by terrorist groups. Nuclear weapon standards are much lower for terrorist groups than for states, potentially making their production less challenging. Acquisition of sufficient qualities and quantities of fissile material is the most formidable obstacle to nuclear terrorist capabilities. Therefore, stringent guarding of access to such material is the best defence against nuclear terrorism.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Taliban
10. International — IMF Crisis Decisions
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IMF's major shareholders have shown little willingness to provide new funds to Argentina. In deferring further assistance, the United States and other G7 shareholders have set limits on the international financial community's role in resolving a major emerging market financial crisis. The slowing global economy could provide an early test of these limits as it exposes weaknesses in other emerging markets — particularly those with larger geopolitical profiles than Argentina. Argentina's predicament highlights the Fund's paradox in wanting, on the one hand, to facilitate orderly resolution of crises (and prevent calamitous social impacts) and, on the other hand, to encourage markets to appropriately price risk by proving that non-optimal outcomes are possible. The risk of such outcomes is the basis upon which investors demand higher premiums from emerging market borrowers.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Argentina