Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: Oxford Analytica / Political Geography: Europe

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:: Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the progress towards completing the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP). Amid continuing difficulties in key areas, pressure is growing for further advances in completing the single market for capital and financial services.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece focuses on the role of ERM II in the East European accession candidate countries. The EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism has emerged as the primary vehicle for the integration of the CEEC-10 accession countries into the European Monetary Union.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: US trade officials said last week that EU estimates of damages arising from US export subsidies were exaggerated. EU trade officials have asked the WTO to approve 4 billion dollars worth of trade sanctions against the United States, after the latter lost an appeal before the WTO on the tax treatment of foreign-source income — judged to be illegal export subsidies. Washington must amend its tax laws or face the prospect of retaliatory trade restrictions.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Washington

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the ECB's monetary and communication policy. The Governing Council of the ECB has appeared fairly unmoved either by widespread criticism of its communication policy or by growing pressure for lower interest rates. The ECB has no choice but to remain committed to its price stability mandate, despite the change in economic climate. However, in doing so, it remains vulnerable to the dilemmas posed by the combination of strong independence and a narrow mandate.
Topic:: Economics and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Middle East

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