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Begin New Search Topic Globalization Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

1. Global Rebalancing: The Dangerous Obsession

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The current emphasis on global rebalancing—which aims to reduce trade deficits and surpluses—is misguided. Trade deficits and surpluses narrowed significantly during the Great Recession, can be financed and eased over time, and are largely the result of domestic forces—making further global rebalancing unlikely. The obsession with global rebalancing stokes currency and protectionist tensions and diverts attention from what is really needed—reforms at home. Rather than focusing on global rebalancing, countries should concentrate more on fixing their domestic problems and expanding their domestic demand at the maximum sustainable rate.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

2. Five Surprises of the Great Recession

Author:
Uri Dadush and Vera Eidelman
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Latin America

3. The G20 Meetings: No Common Framework, No Consensus

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Participants in the recently completed G20 meeting in London agreed on a number of measures, some substantial and some merely symbolic, but they sidestepped the real issues dividing the major economic powers and, in so doing, failed to address the root causes of the global trade and investment imbalances. This was almost inevitable. China, Europe, and the United States have incompatible conceptual frameworks for understanding the causes of the global financial crisis; furthermore, their conflicting domestic political constraints make agreement on solutions hard to reach. Europeans believe that the root cause of the crisis was excessively deregulated financial systems, and they are skeptical about U.S. and Chinese calls for fiscal expansion, worrying that excessive spending would prolong the imbalances and make the ultimate adjustment more difficult. China also believes that the roots of the crisis lie within the structure of the global financial system, although Beijing insists that it was mainly the reserve status of the U.S. dollar that permitted imbalances to develop to unsustainable levels. China is particularly vulnerable to trade protection and seeks to maintain open markets for its continued export of domestic overcapacity. Like the United States, it is pushing for more aggressive, globally coordinated fiscal expansion. However, because of rigidities in its financial system and development model, its fiscal response to the crisis may exacerbate the difficult global adjustment and may, ironically, increase the chances of trade friction. In a time of contracting demand, the United States controls two-thirds of the most valuable resource in the world: net demand. Consequently, it is U.S. policies that will determine the pace and direction of the global recovery, along with the institutional framework that will govern trade and investment relationships for decades to come. The crisis puts the United States more firmly at the center of the emerging world order than ever. So far, the United States has not understood the need to consider the global outcomes of its recovery policies. Until the major powers can reach consensus about the roots of the imbalance and cooperate on policies to promote recovery, it is likely that the world economy will get worse before it gets better. The United States will drive the recovery process, but in order to do so effectively it will need to recognize its position of strength and negotiate the appropriate agreements with other major powers, especially China, on the pace and nature of the adjustment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and London

4. Migrants and the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Uri Dadush and Lauren Falcao
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than 200 million people reside in a country that is not their birthplace. This “diaspora nation” of migrants outranks all but four of the world's countries in population. These migrants make an immense economic contribution both to their host country and to their home country, primarily through transfers of money they earn back to their home country, which are known as “remittances.” About 82 percent of migrants originate in developing countries, and their remittances, which amounted to an estimated $305 billion in 2008, represent an essential source of foreign exchange for these countries, as well as a major instrument in the fight against poverty.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Migration, Immigration, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, America, and Dubai

5. Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In September, the Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would launch an investigation into imports of seamless steel pipes from China. That same month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.–China Business Council, two groups that in the past have defended Chinese policies, testified to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative that Chinese contracting rules, technical standards, and licensing requirements were protectionist.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

6. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

7. China's Looming Crisis—Inflation Returns

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Surging food prices in China indicate a serious risk of inflationary overheating. Past steps to control inflation caused social protest and deadly unrest. China faces the same risk now. China could avoid severe inflation by learning from its past failures and quickly raising interest rates—but politics make this unlikely. “Cooling off” policies in the future will thus be harsher than necessary. Beyond short-term fixes, China should increase imports of fine grains, with long-term U.S. supply assurances, both to stabilize prices and to promote lucrative farm diversification. U.S. intelligence analysis of this overheating risk should refute the conventional wisdom that China's growth is export-led—it is clearly domestically driven. Policy makers need to realize that China's rapid economic rise is homegrown and sustainable. The United States should quietly remind China that harsh handling of inflation-related unrest could seriously damage U.S.-China relations—especially in a U.S. election year.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

8. U.S. Living Standards in an Era of Globalization

Author:
Sandra Polaski
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. wages have stagnated for the past three decades, while the workforce has also faced an erosion of job security, health care, and pension plans. This increasing economic insecurity has coincided with rapid globalization. Is there a causal relationship between the two?
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

9. Job Anxiety Is Real-And It's Global

Author:
Sandra Polaski
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
These are not normal times. Two changes in the past decade have produced a huge global oversupply of labor and intense competition for an expanding array of jobs. First, the Cold War's end threw millions of workers, who formerly produced only for the socialist bloc, onto the global labor market. And second, that market has become integrated by technological change that now permits outsourcing of service as well as manufacturing jobs. The current economic recovery will not solve the resulting global mismatch of supply and demand, and it cannot be addressed by the United States alone. Many current policies aggravate the problem. This paper proposes that the United States revise its policies and devote a concerted effort to get the major countries to work together to expand employment at that global level.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

10. Decoding Cancun: Hard Decisions for a Development Round

Author:
George Perkovich, Sandra Polaski, John Audley, and Scott Vaughan
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Following the riotous 1999 meeting in Seattle, and a near failure in Doha in 2001, the World Trade Organization dedicated the current round of trade liberalization talks to “development.” Negotiators will meet in Cancun, Mexico, in September amid competing claims regarding what steps are necessary to make trade serve development goals. The catch phrases of international trade—“comparative advantage,” “the development round,” “trade not aid,” and “level playing field”—hide tough choices for both developing and developed country governments. Getting trade rules right is not sufficient for development, but getting them wrong can cripple it. The authors outline the policies that governments and international institutions will need to avoid a debacle at Cancun and to assist developing countries in achieving long-lasting growth.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Mexico