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2. False Dichotomy: Stability Versus Reform in the Arab World
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- To cling to current short-sighted policies and to help sustain dysfunctional states in the Middle East for the sake of short-term security would condemn the region to poverty and further instability, which threaten to have negative consequences for US interests.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
3. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria
4. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
5. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World
- Author:
- Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
6. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
7. Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer and Melanie J. Teplinsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Cyber has become the new conflict arena. It ranks as one of the greatest national security challenges facing the United States for three reasons. First, as the revelations about the National Security Agency's (NSA's) activities suggest, cyber offense has far outpaced cyber defense. Second, cyber capabilities are prevalent worldwide and increasingly are being used to achieve the strategic goals of nations and actors adverse to the United States. Third, it is highly unlikely that cyber espionage and other cyber intrusions will soon cease. While the NSA disclosures focus on the United States and the United Kingdom, there is little doubt that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others are engaged in significant cyber activities. The fundamental question is whether the cyber realm can, consistent with the national interest, be made more stable and secure.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, and North Korea
8. Zooming in on Syria: Adapting US Policy to Local Realities
- Author:
- Faysal Itani and Nathaniel Rosenblatt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the conflict in Syria enters its fourth year, US policy has consistently failed to achieve its stated object: a negotiated political transition based on the mutual consent of the regime and opposition. The United States and its Western allies have focused on summits and high-level diplomacy as the most effective means to that laudable end. This approach ignores an essential missing ingredient: an opposition able to coordinate different anti-regime forces, exercise agency on their behalf, and provide decent local governance, without which Syrians will continue to suffer and fight irrespective of whether the regime is overthrown.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Syria, and North America
9. The Hard Reality for International Climate Agreements in the United States
- Author:
- Bill Brownell and Scott Stone
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The release of the second installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report on March 31, 2014, provoked the usual calls for urgent and immediate action in response to climate change, including in particular at the international level in the form of a new climate treaty built upon domestic regulatory regimes. Irrespective of whether these calls for action are overly strident or carefully measured, the law plays a central role. In almost any discussion, the breadth and stringency of national and sub-national regulations and the extent to which a treaty can make them “legally binding” assumes paramount importance. But this emphasis on law is misplaced, because it runs headlong into the hard reality that would confront any international climate agreement in the US Senate. And given the soaring use of coal around the world, it also draws attention and resources away from far more achievable opportunities to develop and deploy advanced coal technologies that would allow the world's most abundant, accessible, and affordable energy resource to meet critical energy needs in balance with each country's environmental, economic, and security priorities.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
10. NATO's Framework Nations: Capabilities for an Unpredictable World
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the Ukraine crisis demonstrates, in an unpredictable world, military capabilities can be a critical factor. The longstanding goals of the United States and its NATO allies have been to create a Europe whole and free, and globally to support such goals through collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. Ukraine raises the issue of how best to accomplish those ends. As part of the Ukraine response, there have been and will continue to be diplomatic, economic, and energy efforts. However, one key element will be to create more effective integrated capabilities that will support NATO's military tasks, and thus the values and goals that NATO represents.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Ukraine, and North America
11. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy
- Author:
- Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia
12. Losing Syria and Iraq to Jihadists
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Jihadists are steadily capturing territory and resources and establishing a state in Syria and Iraq. The most capable jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), now controls swathes of territory, energy resources, and sophisticated military hardware in both countries. Although the extremists are currently occupied with fighting other nonregime armed groups and the Syrian and Iraqi regimes, these efforts are a means to an end: building a state from which to confront and target the United States, its allies, and its interests in the region. These jihadist groups also bring boundless suffering to the populations they control, and serve as a magnet for and inspiration to jihadists worldwide.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria