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162. The United States and the Global Future
- Author:
- Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
163. Iran's Internal Politics: The Supreme Leader Grows Ever Lonelier at the Top
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the nuclear standoff between Iran and much of the rest of the world deepens, Iranian domestic politics are in turmoil. Trying to reduce endemic conflict within the system, the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has succeeded in recent years in expelling discordant voices and closing off institutional loopholes for dissent.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran
164. Rethinking US Relations with a Changing Egypt
- Author:
- Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With Egypt in the midst of a political transition, this is a crucial time to rethink the US's relationship with Egypt, argues Atlantic Council Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Michele Dunne in this policy brief for the Project on Middle East Democracy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
165. The Transatlantic Bargain After "the Pivot"
- Author:
- Barry Pavel and Jeffrey Lightfoot
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The "tough love" farewell speech of former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last June was more than a major policy speech on the state of NATO. His remarks were also highly symbolic, coming from a legendary Cold Warrior whose forty-year career had been oriented around the transatlantic relationship. Secretary Gates used his final appearance at the bully pulpit not only to warn Europeans that declining defense budgets risked undermining the credibility of the Alliance among US policymakers, but also that a new wave of American decision-makers would not necessarily share his generation's knowledge of, concern for, or sentimental attachment to the transatlantic alliance.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and North America
166. The Strategic Rationale for Promoting Transatlantic Values in a Globalized World
- Author:
- Jeffrey Lightfoot and Simona Kordosova
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Imagine for a moment if in the autumn of 1945 the great leaders of the transatlantic community had let the ravages and cynicism of war strip them of their vision, ambition, and hope for a better future for mankind. Who could have blamed Jean Monnet, Harry Truman, Robert Schumann, George Marshall, and others if they had decided that the idea of forging an enduring Atlantic community of shared security, prosperity, and values was just too difficult to achieve and too hard to explain to their embittered and weary citizens? Yet without their sheer will to overcome Europe's history of chauvinistic bloodshed and America's instincts for insularity, the world would be far less safe and free.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
167. Rethinking the Russia Reset
- Author:
- Svante Cornell and Frances Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The first phase of the US "Reset" of its relations with Russia has concluded. Launching a second phase will not be easy: with the Russian presidential elections in March, there will be only a brief window for moving US-Russia relations forward before the US presidential contest moves into full gear. Although the result of the Russian election was widely seen as pre-ordained, the protests following the parliamentary and presidential contests have added uncertainty. A new Putin administration will be challenged by many reformers, but the external impact of that growing internal divide is unclear.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia
168. The US Cyber Policy Reboot
- Author:
- Jason Healey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Over the course of 2011, the United States government released a coordinated set of policies that represents the most energetic cyber statecraft in nearly a decade.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
169. It's Time to Put the Nuclear Issue Behind Us: The Chicago Summit Has More Urgent Priorities than Nuclear Theology
- Author:
- Kori Schake, Lord Robertson, and Franklin C. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Slightly over two years ago, NATO was embroiled in an internal controversy of its own creation which bore within it the seeds of a deep crisis within the Alliance. Several governments, impelled by a heady mix of domestic politics and a newly fashionable interest in nuclear disarmament among certain elites, actively sought the removal of US nuclear weapons from the European portion of the Alliance. In doing so, they raised serious questions about their adherence to the central core of the Alliance: the Article 5 guarantee.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
170. Security Challenges to Libya's Quest for Democracy
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Fadel Lamen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The fragile progress towards a more pluralistic, if not yet democratic, Libya is threatened by several serious security problems. Car bombings, political assassinations of high ranking officials, attacks on foreign diplomatic staff and NGOs, and violent quarrels between armed militiamen have become daily events. It is in the interests of the United States and other members of the international community to aid Libya's nascent government in achieving national reconciliation to avoid an otherwise inevitable descent into anarchy.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- United States, Libya, and North Africa
171. When "Not My Problem" Isn't Enough: Political Neutrality and National Responsibility in Cyber Conflict
- Author:
- Jason Healey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the Internet makes us all neighbors, more nations are likely to be affected by conflicts in cyberspace than in the air, land, or sea. Nations are increasingly looking to limit potential cyber conflicts using the same devices that have limited more traditional wars: treaties, conventions, and norms.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
172. A New Framework for US-China Economic Relations
- Author:
- Henry M. Paulson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For nearly four decades, there has been a broad consensus among US policy and opinion leaders that China's success will, ultimately, be good for the United States. But this long-standing consensus is now fraying. We need a new consensus, based on an updated framework that reflects the reality that China is no longer a "developing" economy but an increasingly established one.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North America
173. Beyond the Ballot Box: Egypt's Constitutional Challenge
- Author:
- Mara Revkin and Yussef Auf
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- All eyes are on the ballot box as Egypt prepares for the second round of the first post-Mubarak presidential election on June 16-17, a controversial run-off between the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP, the party founded by the Muslim Brotherhood) candidate Mohamed Morsi and Hosni Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, two of the most polarizing candidates in the race who together won only 49 percent of the votes cast in the first stage of polling on May 23-24. Egyptians are now faced with a choice between Islamists—who already hold a parliamentary majority and now stand to gain control of two out of the three branches of government—and a symbol of the former regime and military establishment.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
174. Baltic Energy Security: Building a European Energy Future
- Author:
- Mihaela Carstei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Historically, energy security has played a central role in shaping the national security strategy and interests of the Baltic states. The diverse challenges that exist in the region make it necessary to focus on identifying areas of cooperation between the countries as they pursue diversified oil and gas supplies.This is crucial to achieve a regional approach to the European Union's common energy security goals.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
175. Preparing for Cyber 9/12
- Author:
- Jason Healey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Experts have warned about a massive surprise cyber attack since at least 1991, when Winn Schwartau testified to Congress about the dangers of an "electronic Pearl Harbor." More recently, the analogy has changed to a "cyber 9/11" but the fear is generally the same: the dependence of modern economies and societies on cyberspace means a digital attack could fundamentally disrupt our way of life and be remembered for decades as the day everything changed.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
176. Water Insecurity: A Threat for Pakistan and India
- Author:
- Shahid Ahmad
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For over thirty years (1960-90), the Indus Water Treaty has proved to be an outstanding example of conflict resolution between India and Pakistan. Due to the increase in water stress in the basin states since the early 90s, the Treaty has come under strain. It may find it difficult to survive into the next decade, even though there is no exit clause in the Treaty. Rising Pakistani demand and the continued building of hydro-power and other dams by India on the western rivers may further threaten the Treaty. What is the reality behind the emerging debates between the two basin states on water access and usage?
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Europe, South Asia, India, and Southeast Asia
177. India's Water Challenges
- Author:
- Suresh P. Prabhu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Threats of international water conflicts have garnered headlines in many parts of the world including South Asia. Yet, there are almost no examples of outright water war in history. Instead, national water tensions and issues in water management continue to bedevil South Asia and the largest country in the region. India's population currently stands at 1.2 billion people and is expected to reach 1.6 to 1.8 billion by 2050. For a country that already ranks among the lower rungs of the United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index, faced by the stresses of such population growth, India will have to design a plan to satisfy basic human needs for survival, and identify—and maximize—the use of key inputs that drive India's economic growth. One common source that cuts across all criteria for basic survival and economic development is water. It is predicted that by 2050, the per capita availability of water at the national level will drop by 40 to 50 percent due to rapid population growth and commercial use. The main sectors that are heavily dependent on water, such as India's agriculture and power generation, will also affect the quality of water available, both for other productive sectors and for public use. The demand for, availability, and varying use of water all have an impact on India's water resource management and its relations with neighboring countries.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Water
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Southeast Asia
178. Economic Policies in Egypt: Populism or Reform?
- Author:
- Mohsin Khan and Svetlana Milbert
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring that swept the Middle East last year dramatically altered the political landscape of the region for the better with the overthrow of autocratic regimes. But it also generated considerable uncertainty over the future of economic policies and economic reforms in the Arab world. Will the political transition triggered by the Arab Spring lead to a continuation of the market-oriented economic reforms that most Arab countries had embarked upon over the past two decades, or will more populist regimes emerge that will undo these reforms and adopt economic policies that cater primarily to the immediate demands of the restive public?
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
179. France: Back to the Future
- Author:
- Nicholas Dungan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Vive la différence! or Plus ça change, plus c'est la môme chose? Which French expression best describes François Hollande and his socialist majority, elected in May and June to govern France for the next five years? The correct answer is: both.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
180. Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections 2012: A Critical Moment for Democracy
- Author:
- Anna Borshchevskaya
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On October 28, 2012, Ukraine will hold parliamentary elections—the country's sixth since gaining independence in 1991 and first since presidential and local elections that took place in January-February and October 2010, respectively.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine