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  • Author: Joseph Fewsmith
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Robert L. Hirsch
  • Publication Date: 10-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. The good news is that commercially viable mitigation options are ready for implementation. The bad news is that unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Government
  • Author: Albert Zaccor
  • Publication Date: 08-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: There is widespread recognition that the struggle against international terrorism relies heavily on the cooperation of our partners and allies. The National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States declares that the U.S. will hold partners responsible for doing their part in the struggle -- including efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and trafficking of illicit drugs -- but admits that weaker nations may not be able to fulfill that responsibility. That strategy and other subordinate strategies call for U.S. assistance to those states that lack the capacity to counter effectively those threats. This places foreign assistance and building partner and allied security capabilities at the center of the struggle against terrorism and related transnational threats.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Development, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jan Neutze, Philipa Tucker
  • Publication Date: 08-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: A senior delegation from the Atlantic Council of the United States, led by W. Bowman Cutter and Paula Stern, visited key government, parliamentary, and private sector stakeholders in Frankfurt, Berlin, and Brussels in spring 2005. The delegation presented the findings of the Atlantic Council report, "The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?" to numerous business, government, and think tank audiences. This report summarizes the delegation's discussions.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Germany, Berlin
  • Author: Jason S. Purcell (ed), Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
  • Publication Date: 07-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Vienna
  • Author: Franklin D. Kramer, C. Richard Nelson
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: This report provides the working group's insights about the future of overseas bases derived from U.S. experience over the last 60 years. It highlights key assumptions about the future security environment, proposes recommendations and identifies issues that need further study.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: By the beginning of 2005, the improvement in relations between Russia and the West had lost momentum and come to a standstill, as serious concerns emerged in the United States and Europe about developments in Russia. European and U.S. commentators who disagree over economic policies and Iraq find themselves in broad critical consensus about Russian political and economic evolution. Will the term that has been moribund since the death of the Cold War — “containment” — emerge as an option for those in the United States and Europe making policy toward Russia? Already some argue for isolating Russia from Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics; will they encourage the building of a new fence around Russia? Or will there be a new effort at engagement, albeit one that is more cautious about Russia's future in the West?
  • Topic: Cold War, Development, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin
  • Publication Date: 03-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Today, hunger, poverty, and desperation remain prevalent throughout much of the developing world. If we are to live in a 21st century more prone to peace than violence, the developed countries must move expeditiously to address the developing countries' energy and water problems. The availability, accessibility and affordability of energy and water are vital to the economic development that is required to alleviate global poverty and to address environmental degradation.
  • Topic: Development, Energy Policy, Environment, Poverty
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell
  • Publication Date: 02-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For the past decade, both the United States and the governments of Europe — including the European Union — have sought to engage Russia with the goal of having a stable and democratic country increasingly integrated into the western political and economic system. Recently, however, many U.S. and European observers have become concerned that the Russian government seems to be moving in a more authoritarian direction, centralizing government decision-making, while backsliding on some reforms and neglecting others. Although economic growth has been robust, there is less confidence about the application of the rule of law. Instability persists in many of the states neighboring Russia, offering opportunities for regional conflict and for misunderstanding between Russia and the West.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: David L. Aaron, Frances G. Burwell, C. Richard Nelson, Anna M. Beauchesne, K. Jack Riley, Brian Zimmer
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: On September 11, 2001, the world was introduced to a new type of terrorism, one that was truly global in its organization and its impact. In both Europe and the United States, it was immediately clear that an effective response would require new levels of cooperation across the Atlantic and around the world. The initial response was in part military, as NATO invoked its mutual defense clause for the first time ever and a military campaign began in Afghanistan. But equally important was the decision by both the European Union and the United States to boost the capacity of their domestic law enforcement agencies and judiciary to respond to global terrorism and to look for ways to cooperate with each other in doing so. Since then, U.S.-EU cooperation in combating terrorism has been one of the success stories of transatlantic relations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Europe
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell, W. Bowman Cutter, Paula Stern, Peter S. Rashish
  • Publication Date: 11-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The United States and the European Union maintain the world's largest and most significant economic relationship, which in turn is a foundation supporting the transatlantic political partnership. By some estimates, the transatlantic economy — including two-way trade and foreign affiliate sales — totals $2.5 trillion and is responsible for 14 million jobs in the United States and Europe. It is not just the scale of the transactions, however; the transatlantic economy is deeply interconnected through impressive levels of foreign direct investment in both directions. Together, the United States and the EU have been key players in managing the global economy through the World Trade Organization, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. They have been responsible for the major accomplishments in international trade liberalization of the last 40 years, and have spurred the adoption of global standards in a wide range of sectors.
  • Topic: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Geoffrey Kemp, Bruce Stokes, William Drozdiak, Flynt L. Leverett, Christopher J. Makins, Christopher Caldwell
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Europeans and Americans view the Middle East through historical lenses of different hues. Their different experiences of the region and differing priorities and interests greatly contributed to the transatlantic rift over the war in Iraq and other issues in 2003. During 2004, however, there have been some more hopeful signs of potential transatlantic rapprochement over the broader Middle East. The prospective advantages of closer U.S.-European cooperation on the Middle East remain enormous. With a new U.S. administration due to take office in January 2005, it is timely to review the prospects for such cooperation.
  • Topic: International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell, William Drozdiak, Richard R. Burt, Donald K. Bandler, Eric Melby, Morton I. Abramowitz
  • Publication Date: 08-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: In December 2004, the European Union will decide whether to begin negotiations ultimately leading to Turkey's membership. This will be a crucial decision not only for the European Union and Turkey, but also for the United States and transatlantic relations. For strategic reasons, the United States has long been a strong advocate of Turkish accession to the EU, in the belief that membership is in the long-term interests of all the parties. But if the decision in December is to be positive, the EU must first determine that Turkey has met the “Copenhagen criteria,” and the EU must also reconcile its concerns about Turkey's impact on European social integration and governance. The United States can contribute to a positive decision by pursuing an active but differentiated approach.
  • Topic: International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Richard A. Clarke, C. Richard Nelson, Barry R. McCaffrey
  • Publication Date: 06-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic agree that a successful global effort to confront terrorism will require a multi–faceted approach that draws on the strengths and unique assets of many international organizations. One such, the European Union (EU), has already taken a leading role in coordinating national efforts in areas closely tied to many of that organization's key functions (i.e. judicial and law–enforcement cooperation, financial controls and border security). Similarly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has and ought to have an important role coordinating other aspects of Western national responses, notably – though not exclusively – those in which military forces are likely to play a primary or a supporting part.
  • Topic: NATO, International Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Stuart E. Eizenstat
  • Publication Date: 04-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The 1990s saw a cascade of contentious sanctions legislation. Congress passed the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, including an amendment to the Sovereign Immunities Act, which permits lawsuits against governments on the terrorism list – a major step in denying foreign governments normal immunity from suit in U.S. courts. The Iran–Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) was also passed in 1996, with the goal of discouraging third–country companies from investing in Iran or Libya. This sparked outrage from European countries, which objected to the act's “extra–territorial” reach, and from the European Union (EU) institutionally, which responded with a law barring any European company from complying with the legislation (and with similar provisions regarding Cuban trade under the controversial Helms–Burton Act).
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, Arthur K. Cebrowski, Jacques Lanxade, Michel Maisonneuve, Montgomery C. Meigs, Andrew J. Goodpaster
  • Publication Date: 04-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The substantially changed world security environment of the 21st century demands comparably substantial changes within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ). These amount to a full-scale transformation to re-align the Alliance to meet new, more uncertain challenges. This transformation, however, is complicated by the lack of common purpose among member nations and deep fractures within NATO. Nevertheless, the continuing value of NATO is incontestable and I trust that sufficient common interests will be found for the members and partners to go forward with the transformation required to reshape the Alliance so that it may act in concert against new risks and dangers.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, North Atlantic
  • Author: Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, Yang Jike
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, India, Asia
  • Author: Walter B. Slocombe, C. Richard Nelson, Michael P.C. Carns, Jacques S. Gansler
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The prospect of North Korea developing both nuclear weapons and long–range missiles has been at the core of the U.S. rationale for early deployment of a missile defense and of Japan's interest in defense for itself. In the face of North Korea's missile programs and its acknowledgement of an active program to develop nuclear weapons, the problem of defense against those weapons assumes new urgency — as does the question of how defenses affect the broader dynamic of security in Northeast Asia.
  • Topic: Security, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, Chester A. Crocker
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The current U.S. strategy towards Libya – an implicit strategy of isolation – was developed for a very different international context than the one that currently exists. Put in place during the 1980s, the strategy was appropriate for the Cold War context and for dealing with Libya's hostile behavior at the time. Since then, however, both the general context and specific Libyan behavior have changed, rendering the current set of accumulated laws and regulations that govern U.S. relations with Libya outdated and inappropriate. Furthermore, the current strategy provides no vision for U.S.–Libyan relations once the remaining issues surrounding the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 are resolved. Thus, U.S. strategy needs to be changed to reflect better the new environment and new opportunities.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States