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Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 25 Years

1. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:
Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. How Sweden Can Use its EU Presidency to Build the Civilian Security Dimension of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Michal Baranowski, Mikołaj Bronert, Maximilian Kaminski, and Elene Kintsurashvili
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) lacks a security dimension and this is an urgent reform need. In particular, the EU should become the leading provider of civilian security support in the EaP countries, particularly Ukraine. But significant weaknesses in this policy field inhibit its capability to do so. Sweden’s long-term focus on the EaP, its experience in augmenting domestic cyber and hybrid resilience as well as in placing the civilian aspect at the heart of its national security, and it its leading contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions put it in a unique position to be a champion of the security dimension of the EaP during its presidency of the Council of the EU. Sweden can do so by pushing for: a EU-NATO memorandum of understanding on the EaP; the provision of a rapid financing mechanism to assist EaP countries in nonmilitary defense; a more coordinated training, planning, and implementing process for CSDP missions between EU actors and the EaP countries; a more targeted approach towards EaP countries; and prioritization of deepening of cooperation with EaP countries in the domain of hybrid threats.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Sweden, and Central Europe

3. Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer. On January 9, the UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2672 extending the provision of cross-border humanitarian aid into northwest Syria for another six months. In the immediate term, the vote is good news for Syrian civilians suffering through one of their worst energy crises since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. But the main problem persists—absent an alternative mechanism outside the Security Council, cross-border aid will remain bound to Russia’s increasing political and security demands in Syria, which are ultimately tied to the situation in Ukraine as well. Many were surprised by Moscow’s decision to approve the new resolution. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly threatened to veto previous resolutions, and the West has largely given in to its demands by steadily diluting the aid mechanism. From that perspective, this month’s vote appeared to be a welcome sign of the Biden administration’s willingness to stand its ground on Syria despite dealing with a complex Russian challenge in Ukraine. Moscow did not even resort to its frequent tactic of abstaining from the final vote in order to signal its displeasure with the mechanism.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, UN Security Council, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4. Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges

Author:
Henry Rome
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs. On January 11, President Ebrahim Raisi submitted his budget proposal to the Majlis for the Iranian year 2023/24. Drafted amid the most severe protests the Islamic Republic has faced since its establishment in 1979, the proposal includes no economic olive branches to the people and avoids structural reforms that could help rein in inflation and fuel growth.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Budget, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

5. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:
Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

6. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin

Author:
Neeha Susan Jacob, Anwesha Mallick, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin (PMAY-G) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship ‘Housing for All’ scheme. The scheme aims to provide monetary assistance for the construction of a pucca house with basic amenities to all rural houseless families and those living in dilapidated and kutcha houses. Using government data, this brief reports on trends in: ■ Allocations and cost estimates; ■ Releases and expenditures; ■ Target completion and physical progress of house construction; and ■ Payments to eligible citizens.
Topic:
Budget, Housing, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

7. Budget Brief: Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM)

Author:
Neeha Susan Jacob, Sidharth Santhosh, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) rural drinking water programme to provide functional tap connections to every household for drinking, cooking, and other domestic needs on a sustainable basis by 2024. It subsumes the National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP). This brief uses government data to report on: ■ GoI allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise trends; ■ Progress on coverage; and ■ Paani Samitis for Operations and Maintenance (O and M).
Topic:
Water, Governance, Budget, Rural, Sustainability, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

8. Budget Brief: Samagra Shiksha

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Avani Kapur, and Sidharth Santhosh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Samagra Shiksha is Government of India’s (GoI’s) school education programme covering preprimary to higher-secondary levels. Launched in April 2018, the scheme is the primary vehicle to implement the provisions under the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act, 2009, and the goals for school education envisaged under the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020. After a year of reopening of schools, post the COVID-19 pandemic, this brief uses government data to analyse Samagra Shiksha performance based on: ■ Trends in allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise approved budgets; ■ School enrolment trends pre and post COVID-19 pandemic; and ■ Learning outcomes and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Budget, COVID-19, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9. Budget Brief: National Health Mission

Author:
Avani Kapur, Ritwik Shukla, and Sharad Pandey
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
National Health Mission (NHM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) largest public health programme, which aims to achieve universal access to quality healthcare. It consists of two sub-missions: ■ National Rural Health Mission (NRHM); and ■ National Urban Health Mission (NUHM). This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ NHM finances, including proposed and approved budgets, releases, and expenditures; ■ Staff and bed availability; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10. Budget Brief: Ayushman Bharat

Author:
Madhur Sharma, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Ayushman Bharat, under the aegis of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), was launched by Government of India (GoI) on 23 September 2018. This brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY); ■ Establishment of Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs); ■ Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM); and ■ Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM).
Topic:
Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

11. Budget Brief: Smart Cities Mission

Author:
Anwesha Mallick, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Smart Cities Mission (SCM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) urban rejuvenation mission launched on 25 June 2015. The Mission was initiated with the objective of providing core infrastructure, and decent quality of life to its citizens, along with a clean and sustainable environment. The brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Allocations and releases; ■ Utilisation of funds; ■ Project cost and completion rates; and ■ Funding through Public Private Partnership (PPP).
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Budget, Smart Cities, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

12. Budget Brief: Food Subsidy and the National Food Security Act

Author:
Jenny Susan John, Avani Kapur, and Ria Kasliwal
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Food Subsidy is provided by the Government of India (GoI) for the supply and distribution of foodgrains and other essential commodities. With the passing of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in 2013, nutritional security became a right. Under the Act, adequate quantities of quality food at affordable prices are to be provided to two-thirds of India’s population. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Allocations and releases under Food Subsidy; ■ Trends in foodgrain allocations, offtake, and distribution under NFSA and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY); ■ Coverage under NFSA; and ■ Implementation under ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ (ONORC).
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Food Security, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13. Budget Brief: Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0

Author:
Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, the Government of India (GoI) restructured the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), POSHAN (Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment) Abhiyaan, and the Scheme for Adolescent Girls (SAG) into Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0, also known as Poshan 2.0. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Required funds, allocations, and releases; ■ Governance, including human resources; ■ Changes in coverage; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Budget, Children, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

14. Budget Brief: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

Author:
Ria Kasliwal, Mridusmita Bordoloi, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship scheme to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on the trends for: ■ Allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Paid wages and delayed compensations; and ■ Employment demanded and provided.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Employment, Rural, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

15. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana and Janani Suraksha Yojana

Author:
Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Jenny Susan John
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This brief reports on two maternity benefit schemes of the Government of India (GoI): a) Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provides partial wage compensation to improve health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women and lactating mothers for two live births; and b) Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) incentivises institutional and safe delivery for reducing infant and maternal mortality. Using government data, this brief reports on: ■ Trends in finances; ■ Coverage and payments; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:
Budget, Women, Public Spending, and Pregnancy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman

Author:
Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, and Madhur Sharma
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The National Programme of PM POSHAN, previously known as the National Scheme for Mid-Day Meals in schools (MDM), is a scheme to provide one hot cooked meal in government and government-aided schools, with an aim to improve the nutritional status of students. This brief reports on trends for PM POSHAN performance along the following parameters: ■ Past trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; ■ Coverage and provision of meals to students; and ■ Management Information System (MIS) and Automated Monitoring System (AMS).
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Food Security, Public Spending, and Schools
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

17. Women, Peace and Security and the 2022 National Security Strategy

Author:
Hans Hogrefe and Cassandra Zavislak
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
This brief examines the inclusion of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy, and compares it to the ways in which the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy addresses the full participation of women in our national security interests.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

18. Reflections on Victim-Centered Accountability in Ukraine

Author:
Kelli Muddell and Anna Myriam Roccatello
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Since Russian invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, the world has witnessed innumerable war crimes and other human rights violations, including indiscriminate attacks against civilians, summary executions, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), unlawful detentions, and forced deportation. In response, officials in Ukraine and members of the international community have launched multiple—and unprecedently expansive—efforts to investigate and prosecute these atrocities. Most, however, narrowly focus on criminal prosecution and often overlook the immediate needs and perspectives of victims. This paper examines the various actions that have been taken or are under consideration to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other human rights violations in Ukraine. It explores the myriad challenges they face and how tools from the field of transitional justice can be applied in tandem to deliver justice and reparation to victims and lay the foundation for a more inclusive and democratic Ukraine. The paper makes the case that criminal accountability is but one dimension of justice. For Ukrainians most acutely affected by the war, such as victims of torture and SGBV, as well as broad sectors of the civilian population whose lives have been upended and who now find themselves in desperate need, justice in fact entails a number of remedies including humanitarian assistance based on acknowledgment and repair. The authors further argue that the ongoing initiatives to investigate crimes committed in the war offer an opportunity. Specifically, the vast amount of documentation that government, civil society, and international actors have been gathering for use as evidence in criminal proceedings can be harnessed to advance other justice-related objectives. For instance, this information could serve a truth-seeking process that aims to establish a victim-centered historical record of the war and could inform the design of a more coordinated and forward-looking assistance program, including a much-needed reparations program.
Topic:
Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Peace, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Truth and Reconciliation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

19. ASEAN’s Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author:
Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms’ responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

20. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework

Author:
Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Dongmei Chen, Alin Halimaussadiah, and Vida Hardjono
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global net-zero economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, ASEAN, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

21. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0

Author:
Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

22. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries

Author:
Raihan M. Ramadhan and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Industry, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

23. Redefining Indonesia’s Digital Economy

Author:
Militcyano Samuel Sapulette and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The Indonesian digital economy is the largest and most attractive investment destination amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). The sector has grown more than fourfold in the last 4 years and has supported other sectors. Amid the exponential growth, digital businesses are facing what is called a ‘tech winter’ in which start-ups are likely to experience slowdowns or even bankruptcy. In addition, although the digital transformation helps businesses improve productivity and drive economic growth, it has consequences for employment and wages, particularly for less skilled workers. While the potential of the digital economy must be continuously harnessed, some key initiatives need to be implemented to mitigate its negative effects.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Investment, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

24. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia

Author:
Ivana Markus and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia’s economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

25. ASEAN Digital Community 2040

Author:
Lili Yan Ing and Ivana Markus
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries’ preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

26. Structural Transformation and the Global Production Value Chain: Potential Impact of the Cambodia-Republic of Korea FTA on Cambodia

Author:
Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy based on the impact of the CKFTA in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It summarises the key results of the CKFTA study that examined the impact of the CKFTA on the Cambodian economy – specifically quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and structural transformation of the economy in the global and regional value chains. The policy brief also highlights the key benefits of the CKFTA to the Cambodian economy.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Cambodia

27. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration

Author:
Mima Sefrina
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases – recovery, implementation, and transformation – and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Digital Economy, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

28. Fostering ASEAN’s Digital Future through Cybersecurity Policies and Human Empowerment

Author:
Michelle Chandra Kasih
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The adoption of advanced technology comes with the risk of cyberattacks. Despite the remarkable prospects of the digital economy, the cost of cyberattacks has reached millions of United States (US) dollars and is projected to increase. Investment is needed to provide cybersecurity to help secure the growth of the digital and sustainable economy and anticipate more advanced attacks. As investment in cybersecurity has started to grow in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), challenges are present in the intangible form of inexistent or strict policies, skill shortages, and insufficient public awareness, which can halt the effectiveness of such investment. This policy brief proposes three policy recommendations to ensure successful investment in cybersecurity: Ensure that cybersecurity policies and legal frameworks are not underdeveloped or overly restrictive. Support small businesses in earning customer trust through cost-effective guidelines. Incentivise and maintain partnerships for education, research, and capacity building with moral and ethical education for future experts. Raise cyber hygiene and establish integrative reporting platforms that help people identify and detect cyber risk.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

29. Development of the Blue Economy in Viet Nam

Author:
Vo Tri Thanh
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Viet Nam is exploring various models to promote long-term economic growth and sustainable development, including the blue economy. Viet Nam’s policy documents have no formal definition of the marine economy or the newer concept of the blue economy. However, the policy documents have increasingly captured the essence of the blue economy, especially related to sustainable development. While lacking frequent updates and sufficient scope, the available statistics show the importance of the marine economy in the country. Viet Nam has various advantages for blue economy development, including high levels of sea traffic, a large sea area, a long coastline, and abundant marine resources. New opportunities for blue economy development can arise from consumers’ attention to sustainable development, improvement of the related legal framework, and cooperation with partners and foreign investors. However, Viet Nam needs to improve the awareness of local authorities and people, strengthen institutions for blue economy development, and upgrade the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters and climate change at sea, including via international cooperation.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Sustainability, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

30. Malaysia’s Blue Economy: Position, Initiatives, and Challenges

Author:
Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, and Tamat Sarmidi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Malaysia leverages the economic activities in and around its oceans, seas, and coastal areas, as its maritime space is double the country’s land area. The marine-based or blue economy contributes about 23% of Malaysia’s GDP. Realising the importance of the blue economy led Malaysian policymakers to incorporate the concept of the blue economy in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, which was developed in consultation with relevant ministries and organisations. Although the blue economy has been identified as a key area of growth for Malaysia, its development faces numerous challenges such as the absence of a comprehensive national ocean policy and marine spatial plan, overlapping jurisdiction amongst government agencies, and shortage of labour. Thus, a systematic approach is necessary to analyse the gaps in the ‘8i-ecosystem’ to ensure the effective development and management of Malaysia's blue economy. To ensure that the initiatives for the blue economy in Malaysia are on track and delivering the intended outcomes, appropriate monitoring and evaluation approaches and mechanisms must be in place.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Services, Trade, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Southeast Asia

31. Developing the Blue Economy in Indonesia

Author:
Keanu Can Can and Teguh Dartano
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
During Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, it has highlighted the blue economy as a key sector for the region’s sustainable future. A greener and bluer economy requires both environmental and societal balance. In prioritising the sector, Indonesia recognises both the steep challenges and the abundant potential associated with the blue economy, alongside the need for international and inter-sectoral cooperation to fully leverage the sector’s capacity for a more inclusive and equitable future. This brief explores Indonesia’s existing progress in harnessing its blue economy, what challenges lie ahead, and what strategic initiatives Indonesia must undertake to pave a pathway towards a blue economic transformation.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

32. ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045

Author:
Lili Yan Ing, Imam Pambagyo, Yessi Vadila, Ivana Markus, and Livia Feliciani Nazara
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation has profoundly reshaped not only the way we work but also the way we live. It has shifted the focus of goods and services trade, emphasising not only what is produced and traded, but also how it is traded, customised, and delivered. The rapid digital transformation within the ASEAN region has ushered in an array of risks and challenges. These challenges encompass a spectrum of concerns, ranging from the safeguarding of data privacy and fortification against cyber threats to grappling with intensified competition and addressing the ever-widening digital divide. To fully embrace the opportunities presented by the digital age, ASEAN must lay the foundation for an ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045, that can serve as a vision for ASEAN in embracing a new era. This visionary pursuit must be anchored in four pivotal cornerstones: robust data governance, the infusion of value-added principles, the establishment of seamless digital connectivity, and the propagation of digital inclusivity.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Innovation, Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

33. Developing a National Blue Economy Framework for Lao PDR

Author:
Aloun Phonvisay
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief discusses the development of a national blue economy framework for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) to capitalise on the country’s rich water and forest resources in a sustainable manner. The framework would promote sustainable development of the blue economy, identify priority areas for investment, enhance stakeholder capacity, and promote the Lao PDR blue economy. The priority sectors identified for investment include fisheries, forest carbon, inland marine connectivity, and hydropower development.
Topic:
Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Laos

34. A Strategy for US Public Diplomacy in the Age of Disinformation

Author:
Bret Schafer, Rachael Dean Wilson, and Jessica Brandt
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
“Would you rather have the bitter truth or more sweet lies?” This is the question posed by an assertive series of videos produced by the State Department in recent months, targeting Russian audiences, that juxtapose statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin with evidence that he is lying about the course of the war in Ukraine. DOWNLOAD PDF The effort, alongside revelations laid bare by Washington and its allies at the start of the war, reflects a new understanding: that the information domain is perhaps the most consequential terrain that Putin is contesting and that it is an essential theater of the broader, emerging, persistent, asymmetric competition between liberal democracies and their authoritarian challengers. As part of this competition, autocrats—in Moscow and Beijing, but also elsewhere—have leveraged multiple asymmetries. Both Russia and China operate vast propaganda networks that use multiple modes of communication—from state media websites to popular social media accounts to leading search engines—to disseminate their preferred, often slanted, versions of events. Both have spread multiple, sometimes conflicting, conspiracy theories designed to deflect blame for their own malfeasance, undermine the soft power of the United States, and erode the idea that there is such a thing as objective truth. Both also deploy proxy influencers to agitate anti-American sentiment and frequently engage in “whataboutism” to cast US policy as hypocritical to audiences around the world. Some of this content is targeted at broad swaths of the public within Western societies—in Russia’s case with the goal of polarizing them, and in so doing, weakening Europe and the United States from within. Other content is targeted at the global south, with the goal of eroding popular support for Western policies and, in China’s case, promoting alternatives to the Western model. For the United States, like other democracies, an open information environment confers enormous long-term advantages, but it also creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited using low-cost tools and tactics, often with plausible deniability. Where democracies depend on the idea that the truth is knowable and citizens can discern it to govern themselves, autocracies have no such need for a vibrant, open, trusted information environment. In fact, autocrats benefit from widespread public skepticism in the notion of objective truth. Because autocratic regimes tightly control their own information environments, they are more insulated from criticism than democratic ones. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping effectively ban many Western social media platforms from operating within their borders in order to close space for dissent, all the while using them quite effectively to target audiences abroad. In doing so, unlike their democratic competitors, autocrats face few normative constraints on lying—a dynamic they freely exploit. As a result, autocrats have made remarkable advances in the contest that is now underway in the information domain. To push back on these advances, the United States should leverage its own asymmetric advantages—including its economic might, cyber capabilities, soft power, and the legitimacy that comes from democratic governance—recognizing that successful competitors play to their strengths. A focal point of US strategy should be to harness truthful information to contest the information domain, recognizing that competition in this realm is ongoing and there is a first mover advantage to setting the terms of the debate. Such an approach should entail simultaneously highlighting the strengths of liberal democracies (such as their openness to new information and ability to course correct, innovate, and improve) and the failures and false promises of authoritarian regimes (like kleptocracy and repression). It must do so not just to reach those who live in closed spaces, such as Russia and China, but to reach those who live in countries that are backsliding or where democracy is not fully consolidated. This paper—which is based on conversations with more than a dozen subject-matter experts, including current and former diplomats—offers recommendations for updating US public diplomacy to compete successfully with Russia and China. The focus, however, is limited to US international broadcasting and strategic communication activities and does not include recommendations to improve other elements of US public diplomacy, including but not limited to cultural diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges. The authors recognize that public diplomacy is not merely about crafting a winning message and that an effective US approach must include activities that lie outside of the information domain. This paper should therefore be viewed as an attempt at improving a piece of, but not the whole, public diplomacy puzzle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

35. Assessing the Risk of Foreign Influence in UK Search Results

Author:
Bret Schafer and Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As the de facto gateway to the vast troves of information available online, search services play a critical role in the modern information ecosystem. They are often the starting points for people’s questions about the world around them, from the innocuous to the deeply consequential. The results generated by search algorithms can therefore influence everything from consumer behavior to people’s political and social preferences, often in ways that are imperceptible to users of those systems. Given this significant power, search services are also targets of those who seek to manipulate information to advance a particular, and at times malign, agenda. This includes those working for or on behalf of autocratic foreign governments, who can attempt to leverage search results to whitewash human rights abuses, attack opponents, or interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The threat is particularly acute with well-resourced states that operate global state-backed media outlets, troll farms, and other state-aligned information outlets that allow them to exploit search services through strategic content production, search engine optimization, or intentional manipulation. DOWNLOAD PDF To evaluate this potential risk, we analyzed data over a 30-day period across six search products on four search services (Google Search, Google News, Microsoft Bing, Bing News, Yandex Search, and Baidu Search) to assess the prominence of foreign state-linked websites, or those that reproduce content from those websites, in search returns for queries related to topics of national importance to the United Kingdom. Importantly, we could not assess, nor was it our intention to assess, whether the prominence of any state-linked sources in search results was the result of deliberate manipulation by those states or merely the product of search algorithms determining that the content produced by those sites was relevant to a given query. We also did not assess the relative quality of any individual state media outlets. We recognize that state-backed information sources exist on a broad spectrum in terms of their authoritativeness and journalistic standards, and that a connection to a foreign state is not necessarily problematic and should not be viewed by search services as an inherent risk. In short, our efforts to understand the prominence of state-linked sources in search results should not be viewed as an attempt to document wrongdoing, either by the sources themselves or by the search services that surfaced those sources. In addition, although we attempted to select topics that were important to UK interests instead of those that favored the interests of any one foreign government, some of the chosen queries—notably those related to the war against Ukraine—were more likely to be the focus of messaging from certain countries. Results from this study should therefore not be used as comparative data points to suggest that any one state is more influential in UK search results than any other. Instead, the goal of this research was simply to gain a better understanding of how and how often content from websites with direct or indirect links to foreign states—primarily state-backed media outlets but also websites directly or indirectly linked to foreign governments or foreign intelligence services—surfaced in search results in the four constituent countries of the UK. Though we offer several illustrative examples highlighting specific vulnerabilities uncovered by our research, the bulk of this report is focused on assessing a potential risk of foreign interference by identifying the types of variables—from the topic searched for to the language used—that regularly generated search results from state-linked websites, without assessing whether the content of those search results is potentially illegal under the UK’s newly created Foreign Interference Offense included in the National Security Act 2023. We did, however, pay particular attention to the presence of content produced by media outlets currently sanctioned by the UK government, namely Russian state media outlets that were sanctioned after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

36. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy

Author:
Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

37. An Heir and a Spare? How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since October 27, the Houthis have launched three medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel, a first since Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the country in 1991. The Yemen-based jihadists have also launched at least eight salvos of cruise missiles and long-range explosive drones focused on the southern port of Eilat. Moreover, they have attacked U.S. assets directly during the Hamas-Israel war, shooting down one MQ-9 Reaper drone and routing numerous missiles near Navy vessels. If Iran continues to develop the group’s capabilities, the Houthis may provide the broader “axis of resistance” with a potent new chess piece. In this timely Policy Note, Michael Knights assesses the rising Houthi threat and explains how the United States and its allies can respond more assertively and effectively. A revamped policy would recognize the intimate alliance between the Houthis and Iran—which has never been a “marriage of convenience,” as some analysts have imagined—and seek to counter the group’s aggression with the goal of securing U.S. interests and providing a better future for the Yemeni people.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Deterrence, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

38. Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena": The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In April, Islamic State fighters in Mali seized villages surrounding the city of Menaka, marking the group’s first territorial conquest since losing its final Syrian foothold in 2019. The human cost of these advances has been steep. By May, at least 150,000 individuals had reportedly been displaced, and civilians have been subjected to targeted killings, kidnappings, and looting. The offensive occurred amid a string of regional of security setbacks: namely, France’s August 2022 military withdrawal (which followed the Malian junta’s expressed preference for Russia’s Wagner Group), the April 2023 dissolution of the UN mission in Mali, and the junta’s decision earlier this month to form a tripartite alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger, thereby undermining the French-led G5 Sahel framework designed to thwart jihadist actors in the region. In this amply illustrated Policy Note, Aaron Zelin and Sarah Cahn explain that while the United States may have limited room for maneuver in Mali today, it can promote regional stability and U.S. national interests by pursuing further sanctions against local Islamic State officials and exploring constructive arrangements with nearby African states.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Mali

39. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo

Author:
Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

40. A "System of Systems" Approach to Countering Drones: Examining Recent Operations from the Middle East to Ukraine

Author:
Eric Feely
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Drones have proliferated over the past decade, offering a cheap, effective precision-strike capability and leading to an inflection point wherein the United States can no longer count on complete air superiority. As former U.S. Central Command head Kenneth McKenzie put it, “Until we are able to develop and field a networked capability to detect and defeat [drones], the advantage will remain with the attacker.” The United States and other countries have therefore begun investing in counter-drone systems to complement and augment legacy air defense systems that have already proven effective in the role. Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere suggest that progress in drone technology will require corresponding adjustments in counter-drone capabilities to fill gaps and lower the costs of interception. In this lavishly illustrated Policy Note, Eric Feely details counter-drone approaches used in recent conflicts and what they could mean for the future of warfare. Military officials, he writes, are not seeking a silver bullet on this front, but rather advances based on existing layered, interoperable systems capable of providing kinetic and nonkinetic solutions.
Topic:
Security, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

41. The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles: Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses

Author:
Farzin Nadimi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 25, 2023, Iran’s minister of defense, Gen. Mohammad Reza Qaraei Ashtiani, unveiled the so-called fourth generation of the Khoramshahr liquid-fuel ballistic missile—aka Kheibar—amid heightened tensions with Israel and the West regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and renewed talk of preventive strikes against Iran’s key nuclear sites. Ashtiani spoke at the Hakimiyeh Aerospace Industries Organization complex, east of Tehran, against a backdrop with the new missile and a large model of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock. The name Kheibar comes from a fortified oasis settlement north of Medina, Saudi Arabia, inhabited by Jewish tribes before the Islamic era. In AD 628, the Jews there were defeated by Muslim armies led by Ali ibn Abi Talib, who has become a legendary figure in Shia Islam. The message to Israel implicit in the Kheibar announcement was therefore unmistakable. The Khoramshahr is Iran’s most advanced liquid-fuel ballistic missile and probably the first using storable liquid fuel, with its first version having been introduced at a military parade on September 22, 2017. The missile is believed to have much in common technically with the North Korean Hwasong-10—itself based on the retired Russian R-27 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Iran is thought to have received several Hwasong-10 missiles from North Korea in 2005 for reverse engineering purposes. The Khoramshahr is also Iran’s first departure from the Russian Scud and scaled Scud-generation propulsion systems.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

42. How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Author:
Grant Rumley and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Ukraine war is spurring profound changes in the global arms market as Russia, long a top exporter, grapples with battlefield losses, Western sanctions, and reputational damage to its weaponry. Countries that routinely bought arms from Moscow have started considering alternative sources, emerging exporters have amplified their sales pitches, and governments worldwide are seeking to build up their domestic defense industrial bases to safeguard against market turbulence in the age of intensifying great power competition. The Middle East—long one of the world’s principal arms importing regions—sits at the forefront of this new global landscape. In this timely Policy Note, defense expert Grant Rumley and French diplomat-in-residence Louis Dugit-Gros survey the arms marketplace following the Ukraine invasion. They see both opportunities and potential risks for Western states, and argue for steps such as reinforcing Ukraine’s defense industrial base to eventually compete with Russia’s, establishing longer-term security cooperation plans with Middle East partners, and taking action to strengthen the European defense industrial base.
Topic:
Security, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

43. The Regent of Allah: Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During his lengthy tenure as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has shown a knack for consolidating power by creating layers of bureaucracy in military, economic, and religious affairs. In turn, he has liberally purged officials who have hinted at disloyalty to him, the Islamic Republic, or its governing doctrine, velayat-e faqih (rule of the jurisprudent). But Khamenei does not lack for personal complexity. As a younger man, he dressed casually, flaunted his love of literature, and composed poetry. And as a leader, he has often demonstrated flexibility—coined as “heroic flexibility” in the case of the 2015 nuclear deal—at times of national risk or strained social cohesion. He has likewise blessed the rise of relatively moderate presidents such as Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani when he thought their leadership would reinforce national stability. In this wide-ranging study, former Qom theologian Mehdi Khalaji details Khamenei’s political ascent, from his role as an influential cleric in Mashhad to his presidency under Ruhollah Khomeini and his surprising appointment as Supreme Leader. Whoever succeeds him, the author makes plain, will inherit an infrastructure designed to preserve Iran’s authoritarian system and suppress rumblings of internal dissent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Political Islam, and Ali Khamenei
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

44. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis

Author:
Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
Topic:
Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

45. Arming the Revolution: Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23

Author:
Henry Rome
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Islamic Republic boasts a large and expanding nuclear program, the most capable missile and drone force in the Middle East, and a broad network of proxies that threaten U.S. interests. Nevertheless, scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending. Although the data is publicly available, tabulating it is more difficult than one might assume, and three particular hazards await: (1) conversion of Iranian rials to dollars at unrealistic rates, (2) reliance on spending plans as opposed to actual spending, and (3) undercounting. Thus, any attempt to understand Iran’s military spending must scrupulously avoid such traps. In this Policy Note, Iran expert Henry Rome offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing domestic trends and comparisons with regional rivals. The findings show how spending surged following the 2015 nuclear deal and plummeted following the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018. They also suggest that a new nuclear accord with Washington will likely prompt another increase, demanding a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

46. Is Iran Looking to Inspire Shia Homegrown Violent Extremist Attacks?

Author:
Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An October 2018 report by the National Counterterrorism Center defined Shia homegrown violent extremists as “individuals who are inspired or influenced by state actors such as Iran, foreign terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, or Shia militant groups but who do not belong to these groups and are not directed by them.” At the time, the prospect of such Shia violence was largely theoretical, and officials could identify no tangible threats on American soil. But the January 2020 targeted killing of Iranian Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani changed the picture, and U.S. officials could now point to a “catalyzing event,” as envisioned in the NCTC brief. Last year’s attack against writer Salman Rushdie and another at a Las Vegas hotel exemplified how Iran-inspired individuals were motivated to act. In this Policy Note, experts Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt explore lone-offender Shia violence largely through the lens of social media. Closer tracking of online networks, they argue, could illuminate this flourishing virtual activity and how it might lead to real-world harm.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

47. Saudi Normalization with Israel, Domestic 'Transformation,' and U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it. The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Normalization, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

48. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia­—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

49. Turkish Backlash: How Street Interviews Spread Anti–Syrian Refugee Sentiment

Author:
Sude Akgundogdu
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In early February, two major earthquakes shook Turkey’s southeast, as well as parts of Syria, claiming at least 45,000 Turkish lives in what has become the biggest natural disaster in modern Turkish history. The country’s most pressing challenge is to provide relief for the more than 13 million citizens who live in areas directly affected by the tremors. In the meantime, however, in addition to exposing egregious zoning and building code violations, the powerful quakes have revealed new dimensions of anti-Syrian feeling in Turkey. In the days that followed, gruesome videos circulated on social media showing vigilantes battering individuals they accused of looting in the affected provinces. Syrian refugees have seen their noncitizen status exacerbated by local resentment, resulting in limited access to earthquake relief resources; they have likewise been especially vulnerable to the vigilantism. “Looting” and “Syrian” have become synonymous in some corners of social media, fueling public resentment centered on the refugee population. But hate directed at Syrians on the Turkish web is nothing new. Turkey has seen an overall uptick in anti-refugee violence since 2021, often targeting Syrians. In a particularly violent episode in August 2021, residents of the Altindag district in Ankara vandalized and looted Syrian-run businesses and homes. Across 2022 and into 2023, even before the earthquakes, hate crimes against Syrians have continued to increase. Turkey hosts at least 4 million refugees—3.7 million of them Syrian nationals or stateless people who have migrated from Syria. This is an almost 5 percent addition to Turkey’s existing population, which stood at about 74 million before their arrival, making it the largest influx to Turkey since the Balkan Wars of 1912–13, amid the Ottoman Empire’s collapse. Since the Syrian war began in 2011, the Turkish government has welcomed large numbers of Syrian refugees and given them “temporary protected status.” While the public in general welcomed them, since Turkey fell into recession in 2018, tolerance has worn thin. This public unease has found expression in a media trend known as “street interviews,” which simultaneously spread intolerance and misinformation regarding Turkey’s Syrian refugee population. By way of context, the Turkish government has cracked down on conventional media over the past decade and a half, giving loyal media a monopoly on information and pushing Turkish citizens to seek alternative sources of news. Creative new initiatives have emerged as a result, some anchored in social media, and while these can fill gaps and contribute in meaningful ways, some, such as street interviews, are quasi-journalistic and can disseminate dangerous messages. If the Turkish government does not ease its hold over the media, other such trends will likely persist and continue shaping public opinion, hurting chiefly Turkey’s vulnerable Syrian population.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Refugees, Discrimination, Syrian War, and Hate Speech
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

50. Disaster Dynamics: Assessing Middle East Responses to the Turkey-Syria Earthquake and Other Destructive Events

Author:
Sarah Cahn and Erik Yavorsky
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The massive earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria as of February 28—one of the worst Middle East natural disasters in recent memory—has touched the hearts of leaders and peoples across the world, triggering a flow of urgently needed humanitarian support. Regional states, too, have provided rescue and relief assistance. From the outset, however, politics has played an important role in shaping the scope and direction of such aid. In fact, the politics of humanitarian aid follows a pattern discernible based on previous regional responses to crises, including the 2020 Beirut port explosion and—before it—the 2014 Gaza war.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Foreign Aid, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria