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You searched for: Content Type Policy Brief Remove constraint Content Type: Policy Brief Publishing Institution Oxford Analytica Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Oxford Analytica Topic Politics Remove constraint Topic: Politics
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  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
  • Topic: Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, North Ireland
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Philippines, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Germany
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Leftist Ion Iliescu and far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor will contest the second round of the presidential election on December 10. Tudor has a real chance of defeating Iliescu. He came a strong second in the first round, owing to disgust with the outgoing coalition, a popular anti-corruption platform and a shift away from extremist rhetoric. The PRM is an unpredictable, potentially destructive force with links to the Ceausescu era and dubious security circles and, now, the ability to obstruct reforms in parliament. Iliescu's weak credentials on reform and minority questions may hinder his attempts to form a common front against Tudor.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Romania
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Washington, Colombia
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Political Geography: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza
  • Author: Caspar Fithin
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Politics, Reform
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana