Content Type: Journal Article / Topic: Security

151. A Revitalized NATO and Its "New Strategic Concept" Amin Global and Regional Changes

Author:: E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the postCovid period and the United Nations Climate Change Conference declared a “code red” emergency for the climate crisis at COP 27, a strategically calculated move came from Russian President Vladimir Putin to unlawfully invade Ukraine. From the beginning, the invasion of Ukraine has generated impacts much larger and more transformative than any previous crisis, triggering serious crisis-ridden developments in the international system and globalization and forcing national governments and global actors to recalibrate and reposition. It is in this global and broader context NATO’s Madrid Summit and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. This paper argues that the summit is historic, necessary, but not sufficient. To substantiate this argument, it analyzes is NATO’s new strategic concept in detail, exploring its critical importance, its transformative effect and the six challenges that it faces.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

152. NATO's Changing Priorities

Author:: Ahmet O Evin
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of the Western alliance and brought the transatlantic partners closer to one another. As a result, NATO, which has undergone several changes since the end of the Cold War, has regained its key role as the cornerstone of the West’s collective security interests. In its enhanced position, NATO also appears to be emerging as the champion of the liberal order as well as the universal values embraced by transatlantic partners. Yet, it may also be facing new challenges both from within, particularly in the case of a prolonged conflict in Europe, and from China, which is demonstrating increasing rivalry to the West.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

153. Russia's Assault on Ukraine: Fallout From the War

Author:: Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has already taken a severe toll on much of the world and will cause much more harm the longer it continues. Moreover, it does not seem likely to end soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that Russia has barely begun its military operation in Ukraine. He has clearly stated his goal of taking the entire Donbas. Success in that endeavor may motivate him to continue the fight for other objectives, including the major industrial center of Kharkiv, the key Black Sea port of Odesa, and perhaps even Kyiv and its environs. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his goal is to push Russia back to the line it occupied on 23 February. His Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has spoken of winning back the entire Donbas and liberating “the rest of our territory.” The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has predicted that a “grinding struggle” may continue for a long time. This article will explore some of the consequences of the war already in evidence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

154. The Historical Roots of NATO Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:: Matteo Gerlini
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The new strategic concept of the alliance looks at the Mediterranean situation as a shift in the engagement with a history that is as old as the origins of the Western bloc. In this history, the Italian role has been an example for the other Mediterranean countries that later joined NATO. The steps in the construction of the Atlantic coalition started also in Mediterranean with U.S. military engagement grounded in Truman’s doctrine. Twenty years late, the North Atlantic Council’s report on the alliance’s future tasks examined crucial “exposed areas” for NATO, and first among them was the Mediterranean. After the collapse of the Soviet system, NATO worked on a relationship of coexistence and cooperation with Russia. The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has thwarted years of discussion and work, but the partnerships promoted by NATO with the countries of the so-called enlarged Mediterranean stand as a success story.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

155. The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO

Author:: Diana Morais, Samantha Turner, and Katharine A.M. Wright
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In a ground-breaking move, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) features prominently in NATO’s Strategic Concept for the first time, a powerful signal that it will form a central part of NATO’s changing priorities going forward. At the same time, there have been significant gendered silences in NATO and its allies’ response to the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining these policy aspirations. This is despite over a decade of significant investment in the WPS architecture across NATO’s political and military structures, including the creation of a high-level Special Representative on Women, Peace, and Security, reporting directly to the Secretary General and supporting a comprehensive WPS policy adopted in conjunction with NATO partners. Focus therefore needs to be given to what NATO can do to operationalize the WPS aspirations of the new Strategic Concept in practice.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

156. A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks

Author:: Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine launched on 24 February 2022 upended Europe’s security order. The invasion was a wake-up call that peace in the continent should not be taken for granted and a catalyst for change at European and transatlantic level. The EU adopted a long-term Strategic Compass for security and defense. NATO, no longer “braindead,” issued a new Strategic Concept for the coming decade and is expanding. While there is convergence in strategic outlooks, questions remain on how both organizations will cooperate and coordinate their actions, implement the investment, troops and capabilities’ goals set in each document as well as deal with countries such as China.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

157. NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption

Author:: Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022 was potentially transformative. Allied leaders agreed to a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense posture and to continue the fight against terrorism. They committed to long-term support for Ukraine, they invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance, and they unveiled a new NATO Strategic Concept. Alliance members must now translate words into deeds. They must move from deterrence by reinforcement to deterrence by denial. They must bolster their resilience to disruptive forces. They need to offer Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other partners what they need to defend themselves. They must address the China challenge. And they must rebalance transatlantic defense burdens by boosting European capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

158. NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario

Author:: Lorenzo Somigli
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The secure defense of NATO members does not depend on the Kyiv frontline; the southern flank is the most unguarded. This paper deals with the Mediterranean, a closed sea without borders which globalized before globalization, examining some strategic alternatives for Western allies. The Mediterranean is a point of contact, a diaphragm, and a battlefield. In addition, the central Mediterranean is a relevant area where Russia and China have their foot in the door because of the disengagement of France and Italy and the lack of attention of NATO. It is precisely on this weaker frontier that NATO must relaunch its commitment and presence. Defending marine spaces determines the continent’s safety. So, losing the Mediterranean can be disastrous. And finally, it examines Italian policy in the Mediterranean to date and the reasons why Italy can and must correct the strabismus of the USA, which is completely looking at the Indo-Pacific, and of imagines a peripheral Europe without politics.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Activism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

159. Change an Continuity in NATO's Nuclear Priorities

Author:: Spenser A. Warren
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s new Strategic Concept highlights areas of change and continuity in nuclear priorities. These priorities will be driven by a combination of global and domestic political factors. In this article, I argue that the continued threat posed by Russia, the growth of the anti-nuclear movement in Europe, the rise of China, and the emergence of new nuclear technologies will drive NATO nuclear priorities for the foreseeable future. Russian aggression drives continuity in NATO nuclear priorities, as Russia has been, and will remain, the primary threat to NATO security. Meanwhile, the other factors will combine to force changes to NATO nuclear priorities and policies.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

160. The Abraham Accords - Israel and the Middle East - What Next?

Author:: Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 was a turning point in Israel’s standing in the Middle East. The accords created a positive atmosphere that helped promote regional cooperation in security and the economy. This positive change does not, however, provide an answer to some of the fundamental challenges that Israel is facing, which cast their shadows on the entire region, such as the Iranian threat - Tehran’s regional ambitions and its efforts to gain nuclear capabilities; but first and foremost, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is getting further and further away from a solution, and may flare up and damage regional stability and hinder the progress in Israeli-Arab relations, which was achieved following the signing of the Abraham accords.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

161. As Israel Looks East, The Gulf is Both a Way Station and a Destination

Author:: Gerald M. Feiestein
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Israelis and Gulf Arabs became closer amid shared fears of an aggressive and powerful administration in Tehran, which boasted of its influence over four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a). With the signing of the Abraham Accords, states on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict decided that the benefits of establishing relations with Israel outweighed the risks. They reasoned that if they advocated for increased coordination between Israel and the Arab world, it would increase pressure on the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel. This article focuses on the regional factors that led to the signing of the Abraham Accords and carefully reviews this important historical document.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

162. The Two-State Delusion

Author:: Efraim Karsh
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In the 85 years since the evocation of the two-state solution (i.e., a Jewish state and a Palestinian Arab state living side by side in peace and security), not a single Palestinian Arab leader has ever evinced any true liking for the idea or acted in a way signifying an unqualified embrace of it. Allowing their anti-Jewish hatred and obsession with violence to get the better of them, Palestinian leaders have repeatedly dragged their hapless constituents into disastrous conflicts that culminated in their collective undoing and continued statelessness. So long as Palestinian society does not undergo a comprehensive transformation that will sweep the corrupt and oppressive PLO and Hamas regimes from power, eliminate endemic violence from political and social life, and teach the virtues of coexistence with Israel, the two-state solution will remain a pipe dream.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, State Building, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

163. Peace, Security, or the Economy? Israeli Narratives About the Abraham Accords

Author:: Maia Carter Hallward and Taib Biygautane
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In 2020 several Arab states announced U.S.-brokered full normalization agreements with Israel, absent any explicit compromises on Israel’s side vis-à-vis the Palestinians, a significant shift from traditionally held positions. While several of these states already had informal security, intelligence, and trade relations with Israel and, except for Sudan, were never at war with Israel, these agreements represented a significant shift in historical Arab-Israeli relations and thus required discursive justification to a range of audiences, including the Arab and Israeli publics. This article looks specifically at how the Abraham Accords were framed in the Israeli press and takes an initial look at the extent to which the Accords have impacted Israel’s economic and security situation.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

164. Selective Reconciliation: The Rapprochement Between Israel and the Gulf Monarchies

Author:: Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The September 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was the culmination of a multi-year process. Later two other Arab monarchies, Morocco, and Jordan jointed them in improving their relations with the Jewish State while the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members opted not to join the Accords. This article focuses on Gulf Kingdoms and argues that the improvement in Israeli-Arab relations is explained by a growing realization that in Iran, both sides have a common enemy; the failings of America’s Middle East policy; the anticipated economic and security benefits to be gained from improved relations; and the diminished importance of the Palestinian issue for Arab societies and governments.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Jordan, and Morocco

165. From Terrorism to Banditry: Mass Abductions of Schoolchildren in Nigeria

Author:: Freedom C. Onuoha and Joseph Chukwunonso Akogwu
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Kidnapping in Nigeria is not a new phenomenon but has assumed an alarming dimension in recent times. Acts of kidnapping are increasingly perpetrated by different criminal elements, such as militias, gangs, ritualists, and terrorists, among others, for a variety of reasons. However, the increased frequency, geographical spread, and operational sophistication of kidnapping for ransom (K4R) is a major source of concern for individuals, organisations, the diplomatic community, and, indeed, the Nigerian Government. Much of the concern is about the safety of the victims as well as the cost of this expanding criminal enterprise. For instance, Nigeria’s main geopolitical intelligence platform, SBM Intelligence, estimated that between 2011 and 2020, Nigerians paid at least US$18.34 million (₦7 billion) in ransoms to kidnappers.[1] In the first half of 2021, 2 371 people were kidnapped and the sum of about US$23.84 million (N10 billion) was demanded in ransoms in Nigeria.[2] The targets are as diverse as the actors who benefit from and the factors that underpin the upsurge in K4R. Expatriates, businesspeople, schoolchildren, women, politicians, government officials, diplomats, and traditional rulers, among others, are increasingly being targeted by criminal gangs.[3] The wanton predation on schoolchildren through mass abduction by armed groups that are ideologically or economically motivated is the latest worrisome trend in the pattern of criminal victimisation in Nigeria. This article examines the trajectory of the mass abduction of schoolchildren in northern Nigeria, highlighting the drivers of mass abduction and evaluating emerging responses by the government.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Governance, Leadership, Peace, and Abductions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

166. Introducción a “Recursos desiguales: retos de la seguridad en la encrucijada de la sostenibilidad”

Author:: Rosa Ana Alija Fernández
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En lo que va de década,el mundo está asistiendo a una sucesión vertiginosa de amenazas a la seguridad: desde la agresión de Rusia a Ucrania, que ha reavivado tensiones militares entre potencias que parecen evocarla Guerra Fría–con amenaza nuclearincluida–,hasta la pandemia de la COVID-19, la carestía de alimentos, la escasez de energía, o los efectos de la aceleración del cambio climático yla degradación medioambiental. Calificar este último bloque de “nuevas amenazas” sería despreciar la realidad de buena parte de la población mundial, que lleva décadas experimentándolas, y que ya fueron señaladascomo amenazas a la paz y la seguridad por Kofi Annan en su informe Un concepto más amplio de la libertad(SGNU, 2005: párr. 78). Lo que resulta realmente novedoso es que ahora están impactando de lleno en los países desarrollados, que ya no pueden limitarse a tratar de repeler los efectos de estosfenómenos en otros puntos del planetacomo parte de su agenda de seguridadnacional(Wilkin, 2002: 634, 641).Por el contrario, empiezan a constatar que la rápida expansión desde los años 90 del modelo económico neoliberal en un planeta que dispone de recursos limitados está generando ya riesgos a supropia seguridad nacional, además de a la seguridad internacional.Así, poco ha tardado en comenzar a materializarsela previsión realizada porPaul Rogers,quienha señalado que en las dos próximas décadas habrá tres factores predominantes de inseguridad global: i) una turbulenta economía mundial basada en un sistema neoliberal fallido que está incrementando las brechas socioeconómicas, ii) los límites medioambientales a la actividad humana, y iii) el arraigo de una cultura de la seguridad centrada en el uso de fuerza militar como respuesta a las amenazas, incapaz de asegurar la paz y la estabilidad en un mundo socioeconómicamente dividido y medioambientalmente constreñido (Rogers,2019: 139).
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

167. De la Agenda para la Paz a Nuestra Agenda Común: la “sostenibilidad” de la paz

Author:: Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El presente artículo analiza el alcance de las agendas políticas de la Naciones Unidas en relación con la paz y la seguridadinternacionales.La percepción integral de las relaciones entre “paz”, “seguridad”y “desarrollo”justifica las nuevas perspectivas multidimensionales, preventivas ysostenibles de toda actividad de construcción y consolidación de la paz, que sigue siendo el principal propósito de esta Organización.En Nuestra Agenda Común(2021), el Secretario General contempla acciones concretas de muy diversa índoley diversidad de materias paraerradica las causas últimas que generan inseguridad y que son un obstáculo para el desarrollo sostenibleal que aspira la comunidad internacional de conformidad con laAgenda 2030. Apuesta porunamayor inversión en prevención y consolidación de la pazcon medidasque van desde el control de armamentos hasta la financiación de las estructuras de consolidación de la paz, pasando por la erradicación de la violencia, en particular contra la mujer,y la búsqueda de nuevos modelos asociativos y cooperativos, pero más allá de los acuerdos previstos en el capítulo VIII de la Carta.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

168. Divergencias chino-estadounidenses y reconfiguración de la política exterior latinoamericana. Introducción al número especial

Author:: Pablo Biderbost and Guillermo Boscán Carrasquero
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados Unidos y China en el contexto latinoamericano. Pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de estas potencias en la región y la adaptación que han debido realizar, en el contexto de su política exterior, los estados latinoamericanos. A tales efectos, se analizan dimensiones tanto vinculadas a la seguridad como a las relaciones comerciales entre estas naciones y los, en la actualidad, dos estados dominantes del escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, and United States of America

169. “The Same Procedure as Every Year”: U.S. Counterterrorism Policy since 9/11

Author:: Dorle Hellmuth
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: The quote above refers to the recurring dialogue between Miss Sophie, a sophisticated English lady, and her butler James in a British comedy sketch from 1963. Miss Sophie every year celebrates her birthday by holding a festive dinner for her friends, Mr. Pomeroy, Mr. Winterbottom, Sir Toby, and Admiral von Schneider. Unfortunately, Miss Sophie has long outlived all her friends, so she is the only one seated at the table; her guests are represented by her butler James, who ends up waiting on the imaginary guests and consuming all of their alcoholic beverages while toasting Miss Sophie. All four courses of the dinner follow the same pattern: Miss Sophie will choose the beverage that best fits with the course, followed by James asking, “The same procedure as last year, Miss Sophie?” and Miss Sophie answering, “The same procedure as every year, James!” The exchange might also be used to describe U.S. counter-terrorism strategy since the 9/11 attacks. Even though Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump could not be more different in terms of their political outlooks, personalities, and leadership styles, there has been a remarkable continuity in their approaches. Since 9/11, U.S. counter-terrorism policies have focused on externalizing the terrorism threat, designed to prevent the enemy from coming close to the U.S. homeland, by means of border security and surveillance measures, and tie them up offshore, either on far away battlefields, at Guantanamo Bay detention camp, or in other overseas prisons.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Leadership, 9/11, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

170. American Statesmanship: Contrasting Views of Leadership

Author:: Michael P. Federici
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: As George Washington contemplated attending the Constitutional Convention in 1787, he worried that if the meeting failed it would stain his reputation and jeopardize his place as father of the American republic. Given the support for and failures of the Articles of Confederation, Washington had good reason to worry that either the convention would not produce an alternative to the Articles or that it would produce one that was as ineffective and short-lived. However much Washington may have been motivated by vanity, he was predisposed to expect that failure was a common outcome of politics, in some cases because providence or fate controlled the outcome, not human agency. In instances when and to the degree that outcomes depended on human agency, Washington knew that human beings were prone to vices that were contrary to the higher ends of politics. Thus, he was not inclined to overestimate the possibilities of politics even though he had reasons to believe that providence was on his side
Topic:: Security, Development, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

171. Paving the way to the Security Council: NGOs’ activism on women’s and children’s issues

Author:: Yamya Rocha Rebelo
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The relationship between the United Nations Security Council and Non- Governmental Organizations has scarcely been considered in scholarship on international security. This lack of academic interest contrasts with accounts on the engagement of NGOs in the production and advancement of UNSC discussions on women and children. By drawing on international relations and social movements’ theoretical contributions, the paper traces NGOs’ strategies to participate in UNSC thematic debates. By looking at the actions of the Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict and the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace, and Security, the analysis finds that NGOs have built coalitions among themselves and maintained networks with friendly countries and UN specialized agencies to capitalize on favorable political and institutional opportunities and expand the access to the security sector.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Children, Women, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

172. National Defense and Development: Dialogues Between the Meaning of Helio Jaguaribe's "Autonomy" Concept And the National Strategy of Defense

Author:: Pedro Nogueira de Gama
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: In his studies on development, international relations and national defense issues, political scientist Hélio Jaguaribe reflected on Brazil’s “autonomy” since the country is inserted in the interstate capitalist system. First approved in 2008, the National Defense Strategy was created with the aim of promoting a modernization of the Brazilian defense structure. This article proposes to understand the meanings of “autonomy” in the strategic thinking of Jaguaribe. In addition, it presents a potential dialogue between his formulations and the guidelines of the National Defense Strategy in its different versions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Capitalism, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

173. The Reform of the Brazilian Anti-Dumping Regime: A Partial Review of the Determinants and the Implications of Degree 8,058/2013

Author:: Rafael Pentiado Poerschke, Helio Henkin, and Ricardo Dias da Silva
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study considers the development and reform of the anti-dumping regime in Brazil as a ratification example of the multilateral trading system proposed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Brazil's history of leadership in the WTO Rounds, as well as its emergence among users of temporary barriers illustrates the fact that developing countries participate, with some success, in the endorsement and strengthening of the multilateral system itself. Using the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) as a model for its own regulatory framework, this practice ensures that domestic legislation will have greater compliance to international obligations and avoid constraints via the Dispute Settlement Body. Finally, the case of Decree 8,058/2013 highlighted the importance that specialized agents in the middle management of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) have in the management and improvement of the Brazilian public policy.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

174. Colombian Military Transformation: Strategic Reality and Overcoming Resistances

Author:: Victor M. Mijares and Paula Alejandra Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: After the signing of peace in Colombia, attention has been directed to the difficult process of implementing the agreements. This complex scenario has downplayed the problem of Colombian military transformation. The basis of that transformation, the Damasco doctrine, the, has encountered resistance within the Colombian Military Forces. Through the application of a process tracing method, we infer that there is a non-linear process, but in progress towards the fulfillment of the objectives of the doctrine. Thus, we identify three drivers that are making this transformation progress: a renewed confrontation with Venezuela; the changing nature of the domestic conflict; and the Colombia’s NATO global partner status.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Training
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

175. The US Strategy for Short-Term Military Artificial Intelligence Development (2020-2030)

Author:: Daniel Barreiros and Italo Barreto Poty
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article analyses the US Department of Defense initiative formalized in the Summary of the 2018 Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy. The conclusion is that the US emphasis on the use of artificial intelligence to expand C4ISR capabilities (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance) and the denunciation of “ethical risks’’ involving Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are narrative strategies aimed at dealing in the short term with the inability of the US technology agencies to master autonomous military platform technologies and with the Russian resolve on the development of these lethal autonomous military platforms.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

176. The Enduring Relevance of Naval Power: Reflections on Defence, Security and Power Projection of Sea Frontier

Author:: Samuel Oyewole
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The sea/maritime domain is a critical frontier of human exploration and exploitation for food production, transportation, commerce, research, communication, mining, defence, security, power projection and prestige in international system. These made it a frontier of strategic cooperation, competition and conflict. Consequently, the sea has been militarised by littoral states, which have led to the rise of naval powers, across time and space. Naval power is strategically relevant in defence, security and power projection, as evident in its roles in warfare, deterrence, policing, and diplomacy across history. This is even more pronounced during the golden age of naval power, when the roles of the navy were decisive in outcomes of war, territorial defence and conquest, empire building and maintenance, bargaining, industrialisation, commerce and global policing. However, the strategic relevance of naval power has undergone notable changes with the rise of air, nuclear and space powers. Against this background, this article examines the enduring strategic relevance of naval power over the last century, vis-à-vis its challenges and prospects among other instruments of force and frontiers of defence, security and power projection that have emerged.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

177. Prioritization of Multilaterialsm Agreements on Export Control of Defense Products and Sensitive Technologies by Hierarchical Analysis Process

Author:: Luiz Octavio Gaviao, Luciano Dias Dutra, and Sergio Kostin
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This paper proposes a model to support the decision to choose which multilateral export control regime of defense products and sensitive technologies in which Brazil does not yet participate, namely, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and Zangger Committee, should be prioritized for adhesion. For the development of this model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used, considered adequate for solving problems where criteria are qualitative and decisions tend to be based on personal experiences. The hierarchical structure of the problem used seven criteria (Country Legislation, Regulatory System, Licensing Structure, Enforcement Capacity, International Cooperation, Costs of Adhesion and Benefits for the Defense Industrial Base) to compare the three mentioned agreements. A questionnaire was set up and specialists related to National Defense were selected to answer them, after which their answers were collected, standardized, processed and analyzed. At the end, the agreements were ordered by preference to support decision making, illustrating the application of the proposed model.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

178. Defense Expenditure and Strategic Capabilities: Dissimilarities Among South American Countries

Author:: Angela Nogueira Neves and Tassio Franchi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: We take into account that interpretations of security complexes, traditions of long peace, and violent peace do not fully explain how South American countries are organized regarding Defense. Given those, we ran a cluster analysis with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Military Balance report with economic defense expenditure and capabilities investment from South American countries to identify how they are organized, determining those that are most similar to each other (which would form complexes) and how they differ from the others (dissimilarities). The results showed four different clusters: the first formed by Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia; the second by Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay; the third only by the Guyana; and the fourth, formed only by Uruguay. We interpreted these clusters considering the history of conflicts, current countries threats and treaties.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: South America

179. Globalization and the Changing Concept of NATO

Author:: Umair Pervez Khan and Kashaf Sohail
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been the most important and successful multilateral military cum political organization, pursuing the agenda of exporting democracy globally and ensuring the mutual defense of its allies. Historically, NATO was formed against the threat of communism emanating from USSR (Russia). The alliance did not use military option till the end of the cold war between the west and USSR, but post-cold war, it transformed and operated in Balkans, South Asia, Horn of Africa, and Middle East. The 9/11 incident further enhanced the military role of the organization and gave it ample reason to act internationally for ensuring the global security. America, being the leader of the alliance used it for fighting the so-called global war on terrorism and its adventures in Middle East. Nevertheless, in the last two decades the organization went through various changes and is now continuously in the state of transformation. The wave of populism which had influenced the very concept of globalization has posed serious challenges for the alliance. The Trump rhetoric of “America first”, BREXIT, challenges of migration, changing demography of Europe, assertion of Russia in global politics, confrontation between the NATO allies like Turkey and France, and rise of China are few factors which may affect the future of the so-called intergovernmental military alliance. This article concurrently discusses the new challenges for the NATO and sheds light on the possible options to the strategy of Biden administration to reverse the policies of its predecessor which have influenced the cooperation of different allies of NATO. In the end researcher has tried to put forth few recommendations which may help the policy makers to cope with the challenges NATO is facing. The study is qualitative and analytical in nature whereas primary as well as secondary sources are used for data collection.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

180. Security Studies in International Relations: Evolution, Approaches and Contemporary Challenges

Author:: Ali Muhammad and Sugeng Riyanto
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article examines the growth and evolution of security studies since its emergence to the end the Cold War. Security studies as a subfield in international relations was dominated by realist approach during the Cold War. However, by the of the cold war, the concept of security was debated between the widener–deepener. Not only about the concept, but variety of theoretical approaches also emerged to challenge the traditional realist/liberal approach, such as, constructivism, critical theory, feminism, human security and postcolonialism. There were crucial differences in how these competing approaches constituted referent objects, the sectors to which security is applicable, and epistemological position as well.
Topic:: Security, Political Theory, Intellectual History, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

181. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Springboard for a New Middle East Security Architecture

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Iran nuclear deal could be the first building block in a new Middle East security architecture.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

182. What to Expect from Biden in the Middle East

Author:: William B. Quandt
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A Biden administration is likely to rewrite a lot of Trump’s Middle East policies, but the Israel-Palestine issue may not be a priority.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

183. “Reconciliation” in the Communiqué of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Author:: Ibrahim Awad
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A lengthy diplomatic process is still needed to pave the way toward a true Arab rapprochement.c
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

184. The Rise of the United Arab Emirates

Author:: Abdullkhaleq Abdulla
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: By harnessing national confidence, proactively dealing with regional security concerns and exercising geopolitical cooperation, the UAE is positioning itself as a regional powerhouse.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: United Arab Emirates and Gulf Nations

185. Maintaining the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The once booming strategic alliance between Riyadh and Washington has weathered a number of regional storms but is beginning to show wear and tear.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

186. Solving the Nuclear Stalemate between Iran and the United States

Author:: Gawdat Bahgat
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and provide an effective security apparatus across the region, all Middle Eastern countries need to move beyond a zero-sum mentality.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

187. Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation

Author:: Sharmine Narwani
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To realize shared priorities and fulfill the Persian Gulf’s potential as a global cornerstone for energy and trade, hardline Gulf states must acquiesce to waning U.S. hegemony and pursue reconciliation with Iran.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

188. Saving a Water-Stressed Middle East

Author:: Neda Zawahri
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Inefficient water management exacerbates water insecurity in the MENA region, already the area most vulnerable to the catastrophic impact of the climate crisis. Building adaptive capacity is critical to ensure national and individual water security.
Topic:: Security, Water, Infrastructure, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

189. Who Feels Climate Anxiety?

Author:: Sarah Jaquette Ray
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the simplest terms, the answer is: it depends on who perceives it as a threat, and what “anxiety” means to them.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

190. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Game Changer in the Indo-Pacific: The View from Japan

Author:: Glen S. Fukushima
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic that struck in late 2019 has affected the world profoundly, and Japan is no exception. But the direct impact on Japan has been relatively small considering the number of cases of infections and deaths relative to the size of Japan’s population, particularly considering its elderly population and high density. For instance, among the G7 countries, Japan has had the fewest cases of infections (4,690 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 32,276 in Canada, 40,620 in Germany, 64,804 in the United Kingdom, 66,828 in Italy, 86,283 in France, and 99,652 in the United States. Similarly, among the G7 countries, Japan has had by far the fewest number of deaths (81 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 638 in Canada, 996 in Germany, 1,601 in France, 1,776 in the United States, 1,870 in the United Kingdom, and 2,004 in Italy. This chapter argues that although the direct disruptions to Japan resulting from the pandemic have been less than to the other G7 countries, the effect of the pandemic on other nations with strong geopolitical importance to Japan—in particular, the United States and China—coupled with changes in Japan’s domestic political and economic environment have accelerated changes in geopolitical posture and direction that were already in progress in Japan. The fundamental geopolitical challenge facing Japan is how to ensure its military security, political independence, and economic prosperity in the face of a less reliable and less predictable United States and a more powerful and more assertive China. For Japan, the ideal resolution of this challenge is to maintain positive and constructive relations with both countries, while recognizing the reality that even as economic ties with China—whether in trade, investment, finance, tourism, or the exchange of people—are growing relative to ties with the United States, political and security ties (and the sharing of common values) with the United States remain the centerpiece of Japan’s foreign policy. Given this context, it is only natural that Japan would seek to diversify and strengthen its relationships with other countries, regions, economic arrangements, and international organizations and institutions. This diversification, which could be seen since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, has gained momentum in recent years, and the pandemic has served only to accelerate it. The analysis proceeds through the examination of the following: 1) pandemic chronology; 2) Japan’s domestic politics; 3) relations with the United States; 4) relations with China; 5) Japan’s diversification strategy; and 6) conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

191. How COVID-19 Has Affected the Geopolitics of Korea

Author:: Jung-Yeop Woo
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has not gone away, and observers are now discussing possible long-term effects of the pandemic, including on geopolitics. A report by the European Parliament discussed five COVID-generated factors that could impact the geopolitical environment, i.e., supply chains, health multilateralism, digital diplomacy, climate change, and democratic activism. It predicted a reshuffling of value chains, where cooperation within the same “bloc” would be strengthened, while states continue their reshoring efforts, consequently shifting the current geopolitical environment. The report pointed out that the pandemic necessitated thorough scientific cooperation and information sharing beyond the level that the WHO had initially offered, suggesting changes in patterns of behavior, as in adapting to digital platforms while opening opportunities for nations to counter climate change and strengthen their geopolitical positions. Moreover, it also looked at the number of protests resulting from the pandemic and its economic effects and suggested that such pressure would encourage governments to mollify inequality. Missing is optimism that countries will be stirred to pursue common interests. Missing too is the geopolitical fallout from acutely worsening Sino-U.S. relations, as in South Korea, which stands at the forefront of states facing pressure from both sides. With the unforeseen disruption in both global and domestic economies, much attention has been paid to the effect of COVID-19 on the economic side rather than the political side, perhaps because many did not expect that the pandemic would last this long. However, recent disruptions are clearly rife with serious political implications, both domestically and globally. Above all, as seen from Seoul, their impact on the relationship between Beijing and Washington demonstrated how much the economic forces could spill into geopolitics. Koreans follow this impact attentively, realizing that worsening Sino-U.S. ties may reverberate on one or both powers, increasing pressure on Seoul’s efforts to sustain a precarious balance for the sake of its North Korean policy and its hope for regional stability. Many nations in the Indo-Pacific have recently struggled between the United States and China, trying to find the most advantageous equilibrium between security and economy. South Korea has uniquely stood on the frontlines, as in 2016-17 when it bowed to the U.S. and deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense targeting North Korea, which was met with strong Chinese pressure—strict economic sanctions through unofficial channels and demands to promise the “three noes” that restricted further missile defense deployment to deescalate the tension. President Biden’s new measures to bridge security and economy through multilateralism call for Seoul to choose between acceding to U.S. requests or risking China’s threats to respond aggressively—even as some anti-THAAD sanctions remain in place. President Xi Jinping’s warnings point to China’s harsh response. South Korean concerns have grown because of the relationship between the current global supply chains and geopolitics, which is a preoccupation of the Biden administration. Situated at the juncture of supply networks centering around China, South Korea’s economy is almost certain to be heavily hit. Furthermore, the pandemic brought ongoing pressures for de-globalization and de-dollarization to the forefront with major ramifications for Seoul. Much of the anxiety has focused on the geopolitics of deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. The former is warning Seoul against joining the Quad, agreeing to trilateralism with Japan and the U.S., and tilting the balance away from China in the Sino-U.S.-ROK triangle. Meanwhile, the Biden administration, even before it clarifies its regional strategy, is nudging Seoul in precisely the opposite direction. The year 2020 raised challenging issues for Seoul, which loom in 2021 as more severe geopolitical tests for the Moon administration. To properly gauge the effect of COVID-19 on South Korea’s geopolitics, it is crucial to understand the world before the pandemic. Has COVID-19 functioned as an independent variable in South Korean geopolitics? If there is a discernable difference, we have to see whether that difference was caused by COVID-19. This paper proceeds in four parts: 1) outlining the pre-pandemic status quo up until 2020; 2) assessing how COVID-19 affected international geopolitics; 3) examining how it influenced South Korea’s supply chain and geopolitics; and 4) analyzing ongoing discourse on South Korea’s strategic choice amid the U.S.-China rivalry. These sections are followed by brief conclusions on implications for policy choices.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

192. China, ASEAN, and the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Joseph Chinyong Liow
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: For Southeast Asia, the COVID-19 pandemic was not only a public health crisis. It also provided an occasion for China to deepen its engagement in the region by dint of its own successful containment of the virus within its borders, and the resources it possessed to extend help to regional countries battling COVID-19 and its consequences, including economic, on their own shores. While Chinese help was welcomed, Southeast Asia also sought to avoid being beholden to any single external power. To that end, Southeast Asian states have actively pursued such diversification not only through efforts at reinforcing cooperation within ASEAN but also by using ASEAN as a vehicle to engage external powers. At the end of 2019, Chinese health authorities reported a cluster of pneumonia cases that had emerged in Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, which eventually led to the confirmation of a novel coronavirus. Several weeks later in January, the pandemic struck Southeast Asian shores when the first case outside of China was detected in Thailand. Within a few months, the world found itself in the grip of a global pandemic. By the end of January 2021, there were more than 100 million recorded cases of the COVID-19 infection, with over two million deaths. While the fatality rates are lower than those of previous pandemics of the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) strain, it has by far been the most infectious, prompting Singapore foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan to opine that with the pandemic “we are facing a global life and death crisis which requires extraordinary measures.” Threats posed by pandemics are not new to Southeast Asia. In the last two decades alone, the region had been beset by several transnational health crises, of which SARS and the H5N1 Avian Flu were arguably the most lethal. What is striking about the current climate, however, is the backdrop against which the pandemic is playing out: the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the further bifurcation of an international order that was already threatening to come undone because of the intensification of Sino-U.S. rivalry and American withdrawal from multilateralism under Donald J. Trump. Southeast Asian states found themselves increasingly compelled to reassess their relationships with external powers. Taking the present pandemic as a point of entry, this paper considers its impact on Southeast Asia’s relations with China and the U.S. The paper makes three main arguments. First, it contends that Sino-U.S. rivalry has sharpened over the COVID-19 pandemic by dint of the politicization of this public health crisis by both parties. Second, it argues that China has identified and seized upon opportunities presented by the pandemic to enhance its regional and global standing through continued support for multilateralism and economic engagement through initiatives such as the BRI, in turn creating favorable conditions for the advancement of its foreign policy interests. Conversely, because of the severe deficiencies in how the Trump administration handled the pandemic domestically, the Biden administration will have to prioritize its domestic challenges at the expense of greater bandwidth and resources for foreign policy, especially in Southeast Asia, a region that since the end of the Vietnam War has never featured prominently in Washington’s pursuit of its overseas interests. Third, it posits that while Southeast Asia has doubtless benefited from Chinese support during this crisis, the region remains skeptical of Chinese strategic intent and concerned about overreliance. States have tried to diversify relations with regional powers while strengthening cooperation within ASEAN. The paper first looks, by way of background, at how the pandemic emerged as the latest arena of Sino-U.S. rivalry. It then explores how China has handled the pandemic domestically, where its success has allowed it to expand its influence as a putative provider of “global public goods.” In the interest of brevity, the paper then focuses on ASEAN by documenting collective regional efforts and strategies to navigate great power rivalry in the realm of global public health.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

193. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific: A View from the United States

Author:: Jacques deLisle
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic poses significant geopolitical challenges and presents opportunities for the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration bungled the crisis, damaging the U.S.’s standing as a paragon of competence in public health, and functional governance more generally. The international face of the U.S. response deepened preexisting concerns—especially significant in the Indo-Pacific—that the U.S. had retreated from its post-Second World War and post-Cold War role of providing international public goods and leadership and supporting international institutions. Opportunities for the U.S. amid the crisis and in its aftermath stem primarily from shortcomings or unappealing features in China’s handling of the epidemic, and stumbles in China’s self-presentation as a provider of foreign assistance and international cooperation, and from U.S. policies—many of them embraced by the Biden administration—that could correct missteps and ameliorate trends that have diminished U.S. standing (especially during Donald Trump’s presidency). For the U.S. to reap potential gains, it also must adapt its policies to the implications of some Indo-Pacific states’ comparatively successful responses to the pandemic, and the pandemic-spotlighted nature of contemporary international problems.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

194. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Gamechanger in the Indo-Pacific: The View from China

Author:: Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped or influenced China’s geopolitical outlook and its grand strategy for the years to come? This is a question that will determine China’s relationship with the United States, the Indo-Pacific region, and the rest of the world. In the Chinese strategic community, the pandemic has been regarded as a “watershed” event that has reshaped the structure of the international system and the power equilibrium. Its importance is elevated to the same status as the end of World War II, which determined the bipolar international system between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War which began thirty years of U.S. hegemony in a unipolar world. Although China began as a sheer loser in the pandemic given its culpability in the origin of COVID and its early poor management of the domestic spread of the disease, Beijing believes that it has eventually emerged as a pure winner in the pandemic: the relative gain China has made vis-à-vis the U.S.’s bigger losses in disease control, national power, economic growth, global leadership, and credibility has strengthened Chinese confidence that the tide is turning in China’s favor. The “effectiveness” of the Chinese political system, as manifested in its domestic disease control, has reinforced China’s ideological conviction of its superiority. As China uses COVID diplomacy to demonstrate the superiority and desirability of its political system, the pandemic is perceived as an opportunity for it to shape the new international order and promote China’s desired “Community of Common Destiny.” Challenges remain, as the U.S. revamps its alliance system under the Biden administration and as regional powers and Western countries grow increasingly concerned and anxious about China’s growing confidence and capabilities. However, for China, the pandemic has been a great opportunity, and China has emerged from it as a pure winner. It is an interesting question as to how the pandemic has changed the nature and the dynamics of the great power competition between the U.S. and China. Most would agree that the pandemic exacerbated, accelerated, and aggravated the deterioration of relations that the U.S. and China had already been experiencing before 2020. However, the differences lie in the degree, intensity, velocity, and extensiveness of the damage. Without the pandemic, the downward slope U.S. and China had already been on would not have come to a state of “freefall” in 2020. And that “freefall” period has long-lasting and significant implications for their bilateral relations in the post-COVID world. The damaged trust, confidence, and credibility, and the deeply entrenched sense of hostility, or even antagonism, have made any effort to repair the relations extremely difficult, if not completely impossible. And this reality will affect the regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region for the many years and decades to come.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

195. Georgia After the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Mamuka Tsereteli
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The outcome of the Second Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia significantly transformed the geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus, with implications for the wider Black Sea‑Caspian region. The unsettled political geography of the South Caucasus and the ethno‑political separatism fueled by external actors since the early 1990s left bleeding wounds on the bodies of the newly re‑emerged sovereign states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. These conflicts have determined the trajectory of the geopolitical developments of the region for the last 30 years, including on the foreign policy orientations of these new states. The conflicts in the South Caucasus were the primary challenge for transforming the strategic assets of this region into greater political and economic success. Three major conflict areas in the South Caucasus were former autonomous regions, created in the early Soviet period: Nagorno‑Karabakh, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, what was called South Ossetia. (Briefly: the latter term was introduced by the Soviets in the 1920s as a name for the newly created autonomous area in Georgia, populated by Ossetians alongside ethnic Georgians. The historic homeland of Ossetians is located to the north of the Greater Caucasus mountains. Following the Soviet tradition of planting ethno‑political time bombs, Ossetia proper—located in the Russian Federation—was named North Ossetia, while the Tskhinvali region of Georgia—with the Ossetian population at the time concentrated in the border areas with Russia—was named South Ossetia.) As of today, all three of these areas are self‑proclaimed independent states, are formally ruled by de facto governments, and saw fierce military confrontation in the early 1990s. In 2008, the Tskhinvali region became the battleground between Russian and Georgian forces. In 2020, Azerbaijan regained through a combination of military action and diplomatic brinksmanship all seven regions outside of Nagorno‑ Karabakh that had been occupied by Armenia, as well as one‑third of the former Nagorno‑Karabakh region. In the case of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, as of mid‑2021, these territories remain, in reality, governed by Russian occupational forces. The Russian military influence was inserted into Karabakh after the war that ended on November 10th, 2020, with Russian peacekeepers playing an increasing role in the governance of the region. In terms of geopolitical orientation, Armenia willingly allowed Russian troops onto its territory, seeing them as a security guarantee and deterrent against Azerbaijan. Georgia aligned itself with the Western powers, determined to join NATO and the EU. The conflicts on Georgian territory are seen as punishment from Russia for Georgia’s pro‑Western focus. As a result, there has been a heavy Russian military presence in the separatist areas of Georgia since the Russian invasion to Georgia in 2008.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

196. From Struggle to Permanent Failure Why the Karabakh Attempt at Secession Failed

Author:: Azer Babayev
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: After 44 days of fighting, the Second Karabakh War came to an end on 10 November 2020 as a result of a Russian‑brokered ceasefire agreement. The most important questions here appear to be: what led to this dangerous military escalation, and what does it mean for the conflict, given that it seems to have now entered into a (new) political phase, again? In the declining Soviet Union, what was originally a status dispute over the autonomous Nagorno‑Karabakh region escalated into an international violent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Following the end of a bloody war in 1994 (the First Karabakh War, 1992‑ 1994), a fragile situation around the conflict region took root: the “frozen conflict,” as it came to be known, lasted for nearly three decades and led to conditions of neither war nor peace. And during this period, it was feared that the longer the sides had to wait for a peace agreement to be reached, the more likely the conflict would re‑escalate and eventually erupt again into a hot war. As it turned out, this is exactly what happened: an all‑out six‑week war erupted again unexpectedly between the conflict parties in late September 2020, and, as a result, the Armenian side more or less capitulated. But first things first: in the First Karabakh War, Azerbaijan suffered a major defeat, ceding to Armenian forces not only the secessionist region itself but also seven surrounding territories. These other lands were, as a whole, twice the size of Nagorno‑ Karabakh itself and contained five times the old oblast’s population, the entirety of which was expelled by the time an armistice was signed in 1994. And that is why during this war the UN Security Council responded by passing four resolutions demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied areas of Azerbaijan. However, the UN resolutions failed to have any effect. Since that time, no international protagonists felt a strong, compelling need to try to resolve the Nagorno‑ Karabakh conflict. In addition, all international actors dismissed the idea of “power mediation.” Moreover, although Russia as a key international actor is directly involved in all the conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union, its involvement in the Nagorno‑Karabakh dispute has been rather indirect: in the Karabakh case, Moscow has been both a critical and a questionable actor. On the one hand, the Kremlin has taken a central position in mediating a peaceful settlement to the conflict while, on the other hand, it has been delivering weapons to both sides. This last represents perhaps the most striking situation regarding the international dimension of the conflict. Russia is militarily allied with Armenia and has a military presence in the country. It has provided security guarantees to Yerevan, primarily through their shared membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which neutralized to a certain extent the potential effects of Russian arms being sold to financially strong Azerbaijan on a purely commercial basis.
Topic:: Security, War, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

197. Beijing’s Long Way to the Gulf Region Oil, Security, Geopolitics

Author:: Fuad Shahbazov
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooperation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a region that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. The deepening political and economic cooperation between China and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has received increasing attention from the region’s more established strategic players: foremost the United States, but also the UK as well as the EU and some of its member states. Indeed, the region’s apparent geopolitical challenges— such as the American withdrawal from the Middle East, the escalation of sectarian wars in the region, the outbreak and development of the Syrian conflict followed by the spread of Islamic radicalism and similar threats—have encouraged the Arab states in the Gulf (as well as Iran) to look more to the East for new reliable partners. This has provided China with an opportunity to obtain a foothold in the region, which sits adjacent to the Silk Road region and is therefore of significant and lasting interest to readers of Baku Dialogues. With the rapid growth of its economy and consequent heightened energy demands, China is viewed as a potential investor by the oil rich GCC states, each of which needs to diversify its economy. Ongoing Western sanctions directed against Iran also make China an attractive proposition for Tehran. Although the Chinese interest in, and policy towards, the region is increasingly complex, this new axis between the Gulf region (especially the Arab half) and China has not received much attention from the think tank and academic communities—at least in the West.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Gulf Nations

198. Ukraine’s Strategic Relations with the South Caucasus With References to Turkey and Russia

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: kraine’s relations with the three Southern Caucasian states of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia have been varied during the three decades since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has paid greater attention to pro‑Western Georgia and multivectoral Azerbaijan, and the least attention to pro‑Russian Armenia. In Soviet times, the Ukrainian and Georgian dissident and nationalist movements maintained close ties, and this influenced the development of friendly relations between Ukraine and Georgia in the post‑Soviet era. From the late 1990s onwards, Ukraine and Georgia made joining both NATO and the EU priority goals, which also played a role in bringing Kyiv and Tbilisi together. Azerbaijan pursued a multi‑vector foreign policy of integration without membership in these two institutions, managing to be cautiously pro‑Western but at the same time not anti‑Russian. Armenia, on the other hand, has been a member of all Russian‑led regional integration projects since the early 1990s, and therefore Kyiv has had few common interests with Yerevan. Relations with Armenia have deteriorated since 2014 because of Armenia’s support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the presence of Armenian mercenaries fighting against Ukraine in the ranks of Russia’s proxies in the Donbas. During the Second Karabakh War, the Ukrainian media, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and all political parties (except one pro‑Russian one) enthusiastically supported Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine

199. Mexico 2018-2021: Pandemic, Crisis, Security and Geopolitics/México 2018-2021: Pandemia, Crisis, Seguridad y Geopolítica

Author:: Raúl Benítez Manaut
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article starts from the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic re-evaluates the concept of multidimensional security, which emerged from the 2003 meeting of the Organization of American States. It is argued that, at the level of hemispheric geopolitics, it is in the three most populous countries, under the nationalist and populist leaderships of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, where the pandemic has wreaked the most havoc. The similarities in the initial handling of the pandemic, its minus-valuation, the so-called Fourth Transformation policy and its characteristics, deployed by President López Obrador in Mexico and its effect on the militarization of the country are analyzed as well as the impact of the pandemic on the population and the great economic crisis induced. It is concluded that Mexico is experiencing a "militarization with popular support", and that the pandemic has favored the public image of the military. / El artículo se desarrolla sobre la hipótesis de que la pandemia COVID-19 revalora el concepto de seguridad multidimensional, desprendido de la reunión de la Organización de Estados Americanos de 2003. Se afirma que, a nivel de la geopolítica del hemisferio, es en los tres países más poblados, los liderazgos nacionalistas y populistas de Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro y Andrés Manuel López Obrador, donde la pandemia ha causado más estragos. Se analizan las similitudes en el manejo inicial de la pandemia, su minusvaloración, la llamada política de la Cuarta Transformación y sus características, desplegada por el presidente López Obrador en México y el efecto que tiene en la militarización del país; el impacto de la pandemia en la población y la gran crisis económica inducida. Se concluye que México vive una “militarización con respaldo popular”, y que la pandemia ha sido un elemento que ha favorecido a los militares en su imagen pública.
Topic:: Security, Populism, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and United States of America

200. The "Venezuela Factor": COVID-19 in times of Bolivarian Revolution/El “factor Venezuela”: Covid-19 En Tiempos De Revolución Bolivariana

Author:: Rafael Rincón-Urdaneta Zerpa
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 pandemic has exposed gaps and vulnerabilities around the world and, at the same time, has highlighted the demand for more cooperation and commitment from countries to address global risks and challenges. However, not all nations are in a position to meet these demands. In Latin America, hard hit by the pandemic, Venezuela appears as one of the most critical countries. COVID-19 has arrived in a country whose institutional and economic deterioration has been affected by two decades of steep decline. Its democratic institutions are among the worst evaluated on the planet and its economic and social situation has been dramatically reported with the massive exodus of Venezuelans. This article presents a very general diagnosis of what could be called "the Venezuela factor" in the regional context under the prism of COVID-19. / La pandemia del COVID-19 ha expuesto falencias y vulnerabilidades en todo el mundo y ha advertido la demanda de más cooperación y compromiso por parte de los países para enfrentar los riesgos y desafíos globales. Sin embargo, no todas las naciones están en condiciones de asumir estas exigencias. En América Latina, duramente golpeada por la pandemia, Venezuela aparece como uno de los factores más críticos. El COVID-19 ha llegado a un país cuyo deterioro institucional y económico supera las dos décadas de acentuado declive. Sus instituciones democráticas se encuentran entre las peor evaluadas del planeta y su situación económica y social se ha expresado dramáticamente en el éxodo masivo de venezolanos. En este artículo se presenta un diagnóstico muy general de lo que podría llamarse «el factor Venezuela» en el contexto regional bajo el prisma del COVID-19.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Leadership, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Venezuela

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS