Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Security

401. Nuclear Weapons with 21st Century Technology: A Conversation with John Borrie

Author:: John Borrie and Fletcher Security Review Staff
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: John Borrie is the research coordinate and program lead at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. He’s currently working on continuing and expanding dialogues about disarmament and the impact of nuclear weapons on humanitarian affairs. He previously worked on weapons control for both the International Committee of the Red Cross and as a New Zealand diplomat. Borrie holds a doctorate in philosophy from the University of Bradford.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Interview
Political Geography:: United Nations and Global Focus

402. Resilient Power: A New Model for Grid Security

Author:: Lewis Milford and Samantha Donalds
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In the last few years, Washington has been preoccupied with a debate about the security of the nation’s electric grid. The debate is as old as the grid itself: as electrification has come to drive all commerce and government, making it a key element of the country’s national security, what is the best way to protect the grid from terrorist, weather, or cyber-related threats or attacks? As with most things of a political nature, where you stand depends on where you sit. Proponents of coal, oil, and nuclear make the argument that traditional large-scale power plants are not only vital to grid stability, but also that this centralized generation model is the only economically or techno- logically feasible option.[1] It’s an old argument wrapped in new national security rhetoric, and it’s increasingly straining against the facts. More and more analysis and real-life examples show that distributed renewable energy, combined with energy storage technologies, can provide reliable power more affordably and reliably than the centralized generation alternatives...
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

403. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 11 Issue 07: Southeast Asia’s Evolving and Resilient Militant Landscape

Author:: Nur Aziemah Azman, V. Arianti, Amalina Abdul Nasir, Sylvia Windya Laksmi, and Kenneth Yeo
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Islamic State’s (IS) territorial losses and military defeat in Iraq and Syria have not weakened the militant landscape in Southeast Asia. Rather, the regional threat landscape has become more resilient and competitive, with pro-IS militant groups exhibiting better operational capabilities, knowledge of explosive-making and networking linkages. Moreover, pro-IS groups in the region have found traction by exploiting local issues to spread the terror group’s extremist ideology. Several major challenges have emerged from the recent setback to IS in the Middle East. First is the issue of returning foreign fighters (FTFs) and how to deal with them. Such returnees pose a plethora of legal, political and security challenges to Southeast countries, particularly Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. A second challenge is IS’ efforts to declare new wilayat (provinces) in different parts of the world. While IS has officially declared the East Asia wilayat based in the Philippines, the declaration of new wilayat cannot be ruled out as witnessed in South Asia and Africa. Further, terrorist groups such as IS constantly require increasing financial resources to expand and sustain their operations. In Southeast Asia, IS-linked groups have set up Islamic charities to raise funds and conceal their activities. Against this backdrop, the September issue of the Counter Terrorists Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles looking at different aspects and dimensions of Southeast Asia’s threat landscape in the post-territorial caliphate environment. The first article by V. Arianti and Nur Aziemah Azman argues that the IS fighters in Indonesia may continue to empower their affiliated groups in the country. According to the authors, this is evident by the apparent attempts by Indonesian IS fighters in Syria to create a wilayah (province) in Indonesia by strengthening two Indonesian militant groups, the Mujahidin Indonesia Timur (MIT, Mujahidin of Eastern Indonesia) and Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD, Congregation of Supporters of IS). IS acknowledged Indonesia as part of its East Asia Wilayah (encompassing primarily the Philippines and Indonesia) in July 2018. In the second article, Sylvia Windya Laksmi examines the nexus between charities and terrorism financing, through the case-study of the IS-affiliated Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) in Indonesia. Given recent reports of convictions around the world of non-profit organisations that misuse their revenues to finance the activities of terrorists, the article details three themes that emerge from JAD’s activities in Indonesia: (i) sham charities set up by the group as a conduit to generate funds to ensure its sustainability; (ii) funds raised for charitable causes funneled into terrorist activities and (iii) social media used to not only recruit members but also raise funds. Given IS’ focus on global expansion in the post-caliphate era, the multi-pronged threat posed by its affiliate networks in Indonesia and surrounding region, of which terrorism financing is a component, will need to be addressed by policymakers and security agencies going forward. The next article by Amalina Abdul Nasir upholds that despite numerous setbacks in Syria, IS is quite determined to stay alive in Malaysia. The pro-IS Malaysian militant groups are exploiting local issues to advance the terror group’s extremist ideology. In this new phase, according to the author, Malaysian IS supporters have acquired better bomb-making capabilities and fostered deeper operational linkages with foreign militants. Moreover, Malaysia is also dealing with the issue of returning fighters. The Malaysian policymakers need to ensure an effective rehabilitation policy in dealing with returning militants and to continue to carefully manage the ethnic and religious climate in Malaysia so as to minimise exploitation of related local issues by pro-IS groups. Finally, Kenneth Yeo discusses the prospects for a consolidation of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) in the Southern Philippines following IS‘ territorial losses this year. According to the author, IS’ weakened presence in the Iraq-Syria theatre has positioned the Philippines as an attractive destination for FTFs in Southeast Asia given its status as an alternate conflict theatre within jihadist discourse. The article argues there could be a consolidation of rebel forces in hotspots such as Mindanao, with IS affiliated groups seeking to complement local fighters with FTFs and youth militants to launch attacks and gain territory. With the added impetus of a leadership transition within IS’ networks in the Philippines, comprehensive counter-terrorism measures are needed to address these developments, which also have regional implications.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

404. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 11 Issue 06: June Issue

Author:: Abdul Basit, Iftekharul Bashar, Amresh Lavan Gunasingham, and Jade Hutchinson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Current narratives on terrorism and violent extremism by governments, policymakers and law enforcement agencies are largely Islam-centric with an overt focus on the military defeat of terrorist groups. This issue firstly looks into the assumed link between a reduction or elimination of territorial control by terrorist groups and their so-called ‘defeat’. Using the Islamic State (IS) as a study, this issue explicates further on a group’s cross-border/global networks, linkages and ideological spread to assert that the victory-defeat framework against IS is flawed, as its threat has transformed into a network of smaller cells and geographically dispersed cells. Secondly, this issue looks at the rising threat of far-right extremism and terrorism; a phenomenon which has been under-explored, given the Islam-centric nature of terrorism in recent decades. For instance, it has been reported that 71 percent of fatalities linked to terrorism between 2008 and 2017 in the United States were committed by far-right extremists and white supremacists. This issue specifically examines the recent Christchurch terrorist attack in New Zealand by a far-right extremist and possible implications for the Asia Pacific region. In the first article, Abdul Basit discusses the narrative of defeat against IS after US forces eliminated its last physical stronghold in Syria. It is argued that while IS territory shrank considerably, the group is still active with its ideological appeal attracting smaller networks and cells globally. The author states that IS has managed to remain relevant and active despite losing its physical sanctuaries due to three reasons: (i) revising the ideological narrative; (ii) organisational restructuring; and (iii) forming new networks. This is likely to have far-reaching implications on the global threat landscape that will witness a rise in low-end urban terrorism, more competition from rival groups and reactionary violence from right-wing extremists. Next, Amresh Gunasingham studies the recent attacks in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday that heightened post-war ethnic tensions and brought forth civil war traumas amidst an ongoing political crisis. The article examines the possibility of a communication gap among security agencies that prevented early detection of one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in the country’s history. It further details the motivations for the attack as: (i) the Wahhabi factor; (ii) anti-Muslim violence furthering radicalization; and (iii) the possible links to IS. Possible implications and responses to the attack include a rise in anti-Muslim sentiments and violence with tightened security measures imposed by the state. In order to ensure long-term stability, the state needs measures to promote ethnic and religious harmony with strong counter-terrorism legislation. Iftekharul Bashar details the threat landscape in Western Myanmar, focusing on (i) Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an ethno-nationalist group and (ii) IS and Al-Qaeda (AQ), both Islamist terrorist groups. The article argues that the threat brought on by ethnic violence and Islamist terrorism is facilitated by grievances of the local Rohingya Muslims and motivations for revenge and active presence of IS and AQ networks in the South and Southeast Asia region. The exploitation of the local refugee crisis by IS and AQ coupled with ARSA’s resilience requires comprehensive responses that centre on communal harmony in addition to hard-power measures. Lastly, Jade Hutchinson discusses the far-right terrorist threat, specifically in light of the Christchurch shooting at two mosques in New Zealand in March 2019 where 51 people were killed. The article focuses on the attack, the attacker, his links to other far-right extremist groups and the key role the Internet and social media played in facilitating the attack. This incident in New Zealand signals the possibility of further copycat attacks in Australia and other countries, further recruitment towards far-right extremism online and the need to devise policies to effectively counter far-right extremism in the online space.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Refugees, Islamic State, Political stability, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: South Asia, Middle East, Sri Lanka, Syria, New Zealand, Myanmar, and United States of America

405. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 11 Issue 02: Geographically Diverse, Organisationally Complex and Gender Inclusive Islamist Terrorist Landscape

Author:: Amalina Abdul Nasir, Mustapha Kulungu, and Shafi Mostofa
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The landscape of Islamist terrorism is diverse, multifaceted and fractious, simultaneously characterised by inter and intra-group rivalries and various forms of cooperation at the operational, tactical and strategic levels. It cuts across geographical, gender and ideological lines/boundaries. More importantly, it evolves at a very rapid pace resulting in fluid security and conflict environments in different geographical locales. For instance, there are local groups like Nigerian Boko Haram that are trying to globalise their jihadist agenda through affiliations with the Islamic State (IS). However, this cooperation is not entirely collegial and is marked by friction and a trust deficit on both ends. In contrast, Al-Qaeda’s (AQ) South Asian affiliate, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), despite its regional character is localising its recruitment and operational strategies to avoid visibility from media and security agencies. AQIS is abstaining from violence while Boko Haram is engaging in violence to gain public attention. At the same time, the evolution of the terrorist landscape in Indonesia and Malaysia from Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and AQ-dominated to IS-led and inspired, has affected the recruitment and participation of women. The growing involvement of female militants in diverse roles gives rise to further security threats. In this issue, the first article by Mustapha Kulungu examines the genesis of Boko Haram in Nigeria as a local movement representing grievances of Muslims to its transformation as an operationally strong terrorist group. The author writes that the growing links over the last few years between IS and Boko Haram have added to the lethality and brutality of the latter, which has relied on narratives of Muslim victimhood in Nigeria to expand its footprint outside the country. The article analyses Boko Haram’s organisational structure, operational strategies, sources of funding and ideological ambitions. While it is argued that Boko Haram’s growing capabilities will undermine the US’ interests in Africa, enhancing US-Nigerian security cooperation may act as a counter Boko Haram’s threat. The second article by Shafi Mostofa discusses AQIS’ online and offline propaganda operations in Bangladesh and the various political and ideological narratives the group has used to grow further. Along with issuing several online videos and pamphlets, AQIS publishes two Bengali language magazines: Al-Balagh and Azan. In these publications, AQIS has frequently invoked four themes to justify its activities in Bangladesh. These four themes are: Indian hegemonic ambitions in South Asia, Muslim persecution, religious credentials of the head of a Muslim state and Islamic values. The author argues that AQIS is targeting affluent Bangladeshi youth for recruitment. AQIS’ continued online propaganda is likely to have negative security implications. As such, the author recommends adoption of long-term kinetic and non-kinetic counter-terrorism and counter-extremism strategies to neutralise AQIS. The last article by Amalina Abdul Nasir observes how women’s roles in terrorism have evolved in Indonesia and Malaysia from JI to an IS-dominated threat landscape. Overall, the roles of women have become more diverse due to IS’ physical inroads in the region, particularly in light of online recruitment through the open and close media platforms. The author discusses the evolution of women’s roles from wives and mothers to suicide bombers and combatants as recently witnessed in Indonesia and Malaysia. This development will need to be addressed by counter-terrorism agencies so as to mitigate its impact on the security threat landscape. It also requires an examination of the current perception of women in terrorist groups, and developing policies that factor in the gender-inclusive nature of the terrorist landscape in parts of Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, Africa, South Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East, North Africa, Nigeria, and Southeast Asia

406. Differences between Third World Security Approaches and Postcolonial Security Approaches: State, Culture and Modernity

Author:: Neslihan Dikmen-Alsancak
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to discuss the differences between the theoretical outlooks of the Third World security approaches and the postcolonial security approaches to security studies. This article is composed of four parts. In the first part, the article investigates what the Third World security approaches and the postcolonial security approaches understand of the concepts of the Third World and postcolonialism. Subsequent three parts discuss differences between the critiques of these two approaches to security studies with respect to three concepts of state, culture, and modernity. Thus, this article compares the critiques of these approaches to security studies and their contributions to critical approaches to security.
Topic:: Security, Post Colonialism, and Third World
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

407. Rethinking International Security: Feminist Critiques in International Relations

Author:: Ayşe Ömür Atmaca and Pınar Gozen Ercan
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The discipline of International Relations (IR) has defined its boundaries through masculine terms, which makes women and gender relations hardly visible. Nevertheless, women have always been an inseparable part of interstate relations, and the world’s most important problems cannot be treated separately from gender politics. On grounds of the basic assumptions of feminist IR theories, the aim of this study is to analyse how feminism offers new ways to understand contemporary issues of international security. In this vein, feminist IR literature is analysed from the perspective of security, and feminist critiques are exemplified through the concept of the “Responsibility to Protect”.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Feminism, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

408. The Indo-Pak Rivalry and the Kashmir Issue: A Historical Analysis in the Security Context of the South Asia

Author:: Syed Shahbaz Hussain, Ghulam Mustafa, Muhammad Imran, and Adnan Nawaz
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The Kashmir issue is a primary source of resentment between India and Pakistan. It is considered the oldest issue on the schedule of the Security Council yet to be resolved. This divisive issue remained unsolved and has become the nuclear flashpoint. The peace of the South Asian region is severely contingent upon the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute. It is not only the pivot of bitterness in the bilateral relation of India and Pakistan, it also a continuous threat to the regional peace in South Asia. This study critically assesses and evaluated the issue in the perspective of historical facts and current context regarding Kashmir. Chronological data presented and describe that the Kashmir issue has deteriorated the fragile security of South Asian region and remained a continuous threat of nuclear escalation in the region. Kashmir issue has severe implications for populace of Kashmir as well as for the region
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Human Rights, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

409. Asian Space Race is Rhetoric or Reality: Implication for South Asia

Author:: Fazal Abbas Awan
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: South Asian region is now facing a new star because Space is an advantageous frontier for military uses. Space technology has two aspects on the name of security such as Militarization and Weaponization. These terms cannot properly differentiate the difference between security and threat for space. All current and previous super powers are working on space for more than five decades in the name of technology and security. Now these super powers are going to make grouping on space for getting hegemony not only on earth but also in space. As a result, the challenges in space have triggered and magnified the security dilemma for the South Asian rivals, interconnecting China, India, and Pakistan in the context of an international security complex. Indian foreign policy for other regional countries and applying strategy of Kautilya to defeat their enemy by using name of South Asian Satellite is new wave of race.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Space, and Satellite
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and India

410. Underlying Implicating factors of U.S. War on Terror and its Unintended Consequences for Pakistan

Author:: Asifa Jahangir
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Pakistan‟s reactive foreign policy attitudes and actions negate (or seem contradictory to) the core principle of realist paradigm, which says that intentions may vary independently without having any influential peer-pressure. Holistically, the critical analysis of Pakistan‟s foreign policy history exhibits that this country always chooses to pursue a reactive policy rather than proactive one. The best and recent example is Pakistan‟s dealing with Afghanistan problem since 9/11. This study uses archival evidence of long-simmering tensions about the continuing Afghanistan War and its unexpected consequences of Pakistan‟s policy decision to examine hypotheses derived from Barry Buzan‟s Regional Security Complex Theory. This paper aims to make the following inquiries: (1) how did Pakistan react in the response to U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and its War on Terror? (2) What have been the factors implicating Pakistan in Afghanistan War? (3) Why has Pakistan been failed in designing a proactive policy to prevent the challenges surfaced from enduring Afghan conflict and pose the serious threats to its security? (4) What are the unintended consequences of Pakistan‟s reactionary policy towards Afghanistan and in which direction have these outcomes guided Pakistan towards? While foreseeing the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and its spillover effect on region, this paper will provide Pakistan‟s proactive strategies in the form of National Action Plan and CPEC so as to overcome such possible effects in future over the internal security situation and economic condition of the country.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

411. Back to the Russia-U.S.-China “Triangle”?

Author:: S. Trush
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: FOr SeVeral MONThS, the world expert community has been actively discussing the obvious resurgence of the russia-the U.S.-China “triangle.” This happens every time when the key, or even “sacral,” prob- lem of international interaction – the problem of security – comes to the fore. The high level of confrontation inside two of the three sides of the “triangle” – the U.S. vs. russia and China vs. the U.S. – predetermined this resurgence against the background of donald Trump’s non-orthodox and unyielding foreign policy. he brought to the white house his “no-nonsense” approach to add more prominence to the traditional efforts of american pragmatists to keep russia and China apart. his obvious preference for Moscow and his clear intention to rely on it to oppose China were defused by an unprece- dented attack launched against him by the anti-Trump opposition inside the United States. due to the internal balance of power, russia was cho- sen as the potentially most promising target with the best foreign policy dividends perfectly suited to the task of either pushing the president out of the white house or at least, narrowing down his political leeway. This attack and the fairly painful Korean issue created a pause in the america-China relations obvious in the first year of the new administra- tion that ended late in 2017 by the “tough and realistic” description in the National Security Strategy of the United States of “revisionist powers of russia and China.... that challenge american power.” This launched an aggressive trade war with China; today, it has become abundantly clear that it is part of the exacerbated systemic confrontation with China over economic, technological and military leadership.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

412. Strategic Stability in the Early 21st Century

Author:: A. Orlov
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: one hunDReD YeaRs ago, mankind entered the 20th century as the “golden age” of realized ideals of freedom and humanism. Reality proved to be different: this was the cruelest and the bloodiest period in the histo- ry of modern civilization. The new generation of political dreamers, with anglo-saxon roots in the first place, expected the 21st century to become a period of a more or less stable development of the world led by the united states with the help of its closest satellites. In his The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership, Zbigniew Brzezinski (who together with henry Kissinger can be described as a “classic” of the contemporary geopoliti- cal thought) wrote that since the end of the Cold War the united states “assumed the unique global security role” and “america’s global socio- cultural celebrity makes it the world’s center of attention.”1 he arrived here at a fairly debatable (as later developments showed) conclusion that “america’s role in ensuring the security of its allies ... justifies it in seek- ing more security for itself than is predictably attainable by other states.”2 This trend of military-political thinking that dominated across the ocean in the 1990s and early 2000s has not changed in fifteen years that elapsed since the time when the maître of american political science wrote the lines quoted above. Formally a Democrat and President Jimmy Carter's national security advisor in the latter half of the 1970s, he nur- tured the ideas that differ but little from those of the present master of the White house, a conservative Republican determined to “make america great again,” that is, to restore its role of the unquestioned world leader in all trends and in all hypostases. nothing what President Trump has said so far clarifies when, in his opinion, america lost its greatness. It seems that he piles the accusations on Democrat obama whom he called a “softy” and who allegedly allowed the adversaries to push america into a tight corner from which the country is scrambling out under his guid- ance. let’s go several decades back. The end of the Cold War, the victory in which Washington arrogant- ly “appropriated” and its rise, at least in its own eyes, became a watershed of sorts in american understanding of the contemporary realities and of certain basic postulates that for a long time remained the cornerstone of the perception of the world by Washington and Moscow. This relates, first and foremost, to the strategic security concept. Brzezinski admitted: “It was until the late 1950s and perhaps not even until the Cuban Missile Crisis that america was jarred into recognition that modern technology has made vulnerable a thing of the past.”3 “The intense national debate on these issues [in the united states] eventually led to a consensus that a relationship of stable deterrence with the soviet union was attainable only through mutual restraint.”4 henry Kissinger fully agrees with the above. In his World Order, he has written: “strategic stability was defined as a balance in which neither side would use its weapons of mass destruction because the adversary was always able to inflict an unacceptable level of destruction in retalia- tion.”5 This adds special importance to what anatoly Dobrynin, soviet ambassador to the u.s., had to say in his book In Confidence: Moscow’s Ambassador to Six Cold War Presidents about his talk to Robert Mcnamara, united states secretary of Defense, in april 1967: “Mcnamara explained that u.s. nuclear doctrine was grounded in the idea that the united states should be ready to absorb a surprise nuclear- missile strike while preserving its capability to hit back and cause irreparable damage to the enemy. as far as he could understand, Mcnamara said, the soviet military doctrine was based on the same prin- ciple. he was convinced that both sides possessed such capability. It was precisely this factor that in a peculiar way provided the stability and ade- quately guaranteed that neither of the two great powers would attack the other, because each well knew that an attack on the other meant suicide.”6 Colonel-general Yury Baluyevsky, a prominent soviet and Russian military theoretician who served as Chief of the general staff of the armed Forces of the Russian Federation, has pointed out the fol- lowing: “[The] term strategic stability has been used for a fairly long time to assess the situation in the world. at first it was limited to the relations between the two superpowers – the soviet union and the united states – and described them as the mutually assured destruction of the sides and the rest of the world in a global nuclear war.... This stability is a product of nuclear arms race that resulted in the parity of strategic offensive armaments of the ussR and the u.s. and the situation of the so-called nuclear stalemate.”
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

413. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Great Power Competition

Author:: Christopher C. Harmon, T. J. Linzy, Jack Vahram Kalpakian, Bruce I. Gudmundsson, Ryan Burke, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, Zsofia Budai, Kevin Johnston, Blagovest Tashev, Michael Purcell, David McLaughlin, Kashish Parpiani, Daniel De Wit, and Timothy Chess
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In this issue of MCU Journal, the authors discuss various concepts of power and great power competition. For generations, scholars have debated changes in power and how that evolution could potentially impact the United States, its allies, and those hovering on the edge of greatness in whatever form that may take. The concept of power has taken on many meanings as the character of warfare has adapted to the time—hard power, soft power, sea power, airpower, space power, great power, combat power, etc. So how do we define such an abstract concept as power? The Department of Defense (DOD) defines combat power as “the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force which a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time.” Clearly, power must be projected; and for our purposes, that means an entity has the “ability . . . to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, to contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability.”
Topic:: Security, NATO, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, History, Power Politics, Armed Forces, Navy, Populism, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, Geography, Ottoman Empire, Information Technology, and Clash of Civilizations
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Sudan, India, Norway, Asia, France, North America, Egypt, Arctic, United States of America, and Antarctica

414. Three boards: security, economy and the new unknown. The complicated relationship between China and Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Michal Lubina
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Two decades ago, when China economically entered Western Europe for the first time, two dominant narratives emerged. The first one claimed that China’s involvement constitutes a great development opportunity for European continent; the other one declared that it’s a serious security threat. Those two discourses on China remain dominant until now and the opportunity vs. threat dichotomy can now also be applied to Chinese’s policy towards Central and Eastern Europe. Th e answer for the dichotomy is both. China’s engagement means a great opportunity for development for Central and Eastern Europe. Th e success, however, is uncertain. It may never fulfill due to external factors and the drawbacks may overshadow the benefits.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Central Europe

415. Regionalism and Security: The Case of Mercosur and the Absence of Defense Issues

Author:: Alejandro Frenkel
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Despite being established on a commercial basis, Mercosur gradually incorporated other areas of cooperation during its first years, such as health, labor and environment. However, issues like defense were never included in the institutional scheme. On this basis, this article analyses a specific set of factors that were crucial to undermine the possibilities of building a security mechanism in the Southern Cone. These factors are the bloc one-dimension, the divergent civilian control of the armed forces and the different visions of security among member countries.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, and South America

416. Manufacturers and Security Providers: A Conceptual Essay

Author:: Silviu Petre and Ella Ciuperca
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to contribute to the theoretical clarification of certain widely used terms in scholarly literature as well as in public statements made by policymakers, pundits, media people but insufficiently exaplained, namely security producers and security consumers. Although frequently present, neither political science nor international relations literature have grappled with them, therefore rendering scholars incapable to grasp the complexity of inter-state position.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, and Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

417. Africa and the Threats to Its Security

Author:: Francisco Proenca Garcia
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This essay begins by addressing the security context in Africa and the structural violence that is felt throughout the Continent. Later, it addresses the main threats that are manifest in such a differentiated space, emphasizing that in the current context it seems to be the fragility of the States the greatest threat, incapable of guaranteeing their inhabitants the ultimate ends - security, justice and well-being. Despite the failure of the state, people continue to live in these spaces, having various forms of social organization, which subsist and compete with other state structures, in the collection of taxes, in the use of force and also having different forms of social responsibility over the populations they control. The second threat emphasized in the essay, is one of those social structures that seek to impose itself in several geographic spaces: global subversion, which today is materialized in the two main factions of the global jihadist movement (al-Qaeda and Daesh), which seek the conquest of spaces and power also in Africa, using not only political mechanisms, but also, and when necessary, violent actions. Finally, a spectral analysis of other security threats in Africa, whether natural, such as climate change and pandemics, or man-made, such as organized crime and piracy, is presented.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Piracy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa

418. Disengaging from Violent Extremism

Author:: Ingvild Magnaes Gjelsvik
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Disengagement, rehabilitation and reintegration for members of violent extremist groups during ongoing conflict is a tricky matter. Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programmes are normally implemented after a peace agreement is in place. However, this does not apply to south central Somalia, as well as other conflict-ridden areas around the world today. Providing adequate security for those wanting to leave violent extremist groups is arguably a key element for success for programmes operating in such contexts. This article looks at some of the security challenges the Defector Rehabilitation Programme (DRP) for al-Shabaab members has encountered in south central Somalia. The lessons learnt presented in this article were mainly gathered through discussions and presentations made at a training held in Nairobi in November 2017 by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) for programme staff in the DRP. Interviews and conversations were also carried out with staff members and partners involved in different stages of the programme, and practitioners and stakeholders working to prevent or counter violent extremism in Somalia, during field trips to south central Somalia between 2013 and 2017.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Peace, and Rehabilitation
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

419. Regional security cooperation in Africa: An evaluation of the Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Elimination of the Lord’s Resistance Army

Author:: Andrea Prah
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article provides an analysis of less traditional forms of regional security cooperation in Africa through the case study of the Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Elimination of the Lord’s Resistance Army (RCI-LRA) in Central Africa. It explores the progress and shortcomings of this task force. It argues that although its successes were limited by its militarised mandate and approach, the operation has been largely effective in downgrading the threat status of the Lord’s Resistance Army. This example of regional cooperation offers important lessons for other arrangements which deal with similar threats. This type of response represents an emerging trend in security cooperation in Africa and it is clear that task forces of this structure are becoming more frequent in dealing with transnational violence as opposed to more traditional cooperative arrangements organised through the African Union’s African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA).
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

420. Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria

Author:: Aduku A. Akubo and Benjamin Ikani Okolo
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This study attempts to draw attention to the Boko Haram insurgency and its implications for national security in Nigeria. Using a historical method of research and content analysis, it adopts a descriptive and exploratory approach. It shows how the Boko Haram insurgency has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation evident from the human casualties, human rights abuses, population displacement and refugee debacle, livelihood crisis, and public insecurity – which portend negatively for the maintenance of national security in Nigeria. The study discusses how the counter-terrorism in northeast Nigeria appears to have caused more harm than good and how the terrorist conflict is far from reaching a stalemate ripe for resolution. It is recommended that the Nigerian government should refocus its efforts on a people-centric, community-based and intelligence-driven, whole-of-government approach to better police its borders, improve the capacity of the security forces, enhance interagency cooperation and improve cooperation in the sub-region. The Government should empower the local communities to reach out to the perpetrators of the insurgency with a message of peace and reconciliation. A shift to a restorative and community justice approach may be a pointer to a lasting solution.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Boko Haram, and Community
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

421. State Fragility and Conflict Nexus

Author:: Yonas Adeto
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Although research on natural resource and ethnic identity-based conflict abounds, studies which critically examine how the state fragility–conflict nexus shapes the contemporary security of the Horn of Africa are rather limited. Qualitatively designed, this study attempts to explore and explain security implications of such a nexus. Analysis of the regional security complex (RSC) and empirical data from the field reveal that conflict dynamics feed and fuel state fragility in the Horn of Africa sub-region. The presence of extra-regional security actors, who are competing for military bases along the coast of Djibouti, the spill-over effects of violence in Yemen, and the Iran–Saudi power rivalry, together with incompetent regional political leadership, tend to shape the security of the Horn. Hence, a new and innovative approach to contemporary security and political commitment are sine qua non since the existing institutions and policies are not fully capable of coping with the need for a new security regionalism. It is hoped that the recent rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia, albeit at an embryonic stage, is and will be a positive force capable of bringing about a paradigm shift in security structure, and inducing a viable and sustainable economic, political and security community in the Horn of Africa.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Fragile States, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa

422. Biopolitics and Necropolitics on the Northern Border / La biopolítica y la necropolítica en la seguridad ciudadana de Tijuana

Author:: R. Guy Emerson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article explores the functioning of citizen security. It is developed with reference to the initiatives in Tijuana, Mexico, and reveals how citizen security operates through technologies that simultaneously generate both compatible citizens and abject non-citizens. Both groups become an integral part of citizen security and operate within a logic through which one tries to ensure the life of the former (biopolitics) and the exclusion of the latter is generated (the necropolitics). From biopolitics, the population is understood through surveillance measures that allow the accumulation of information and the analysis of data. These concern the observed patterns of behavior within this population, with the aim of managing random events and populations outside of what is empirically normal. These abnormal populations are then regulated through initiatives composed of the National Program for the Prevention of Crime (PRONAPRED), with the purpose of giving them certain life skills to overcome their risk situations. On the other hand, non-citizens are treated based on an exclusionary inclusion (the necropolitics). In practice, this implies that the non-citizen population is seen as an object of hierarchical surveillance. The latter is designed to regulate movement and limit the danger that these non-citizens represent for public safety. Similarly, non-citizen individuals are marginalized to the extent that their inclusion in the PRONAPRED security programs makes possible their eventual expulsion from Mexico. Thus, the article concludes that citizen security determines and exacerbates the citizen / non-citizen distinction, a distinction that can mean life or death.
Topic:: Security, Citizenship, Biopolitics, and Necropolitics
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

423. Drug Trafficking between Latin America and Africa: A contemporary Case between Security and Global Governance / Narcotráfico entre América Latina y África: un caso contemporáneo entre seguridad y gobernanza global

Author:: Mohamed Badine El Yattioui and Claudia Barona Castañeda
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: In this paper, we will analyze two regions and the relationship between them, concerning drug trafficking (excepting Morocco, a hashish producer), posing a great variability challenges for State Security and their formal cooperation and even further, a real concern of global governance matter. How to create original and international instruments adapted to fight this illegal market, which has an impact on Europe?
Topic:: Security, International Affairs, Narcotics Trafficking, Drugs, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Africa and Latin America

424. The Strategic Price of Neglect

Author:: Peter Schechter
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Latin America is a good mirror of our times; an apt measurement of the zeitgeist of doubt. Having cemented its democracies and reformed its economies, some of America’s closest Latin American friends are reassessing their options and realigning their interests away from the United States. Our closest regional friends are realizing that the United States may no longer be the fulcrum of Latin America’s future. While America’s soft power—its culture, innovation, and ethos—are still highly attractive, the fact is Europe, Asia, and China are capturing much of the region’s political imagination and economic attention. At a time of fast change, it is hard to think strategically. Yet, strategy is what will be needed to re-prioritize Latin America within U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and United States of America

425. Security Challenges of the New Colombian Administration

Author:: David E. Spencer
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Colombia faces one of the most complex security situations in its recent history, as it is simultaneously confronted by four intertwined security challenges—increased drug production, increased organized crime, peace negotiation complications, and a volatile border with Venezuela—that have formed a perfect Gordian Knot. The new administration led by President Iván Duque must cut this knot to maintain the security advances made by its preceding administrations during the past two decades.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Crime, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

426. Taking Responsibility in a Dangerous World

Author:: Federica Mogherini
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The NATO partnership is indeed evolving, and some analysts describe a growing rift across the ocean. Yet transatlantic cooperation today is more important than ever. Beyond any disagreement we might have, European and American interests very often coincide. On most foreign policy issues—from Ukraine to Syria, from Africa’s security to North Korea—transatlantic cooperation is in great shape. During the five-year term of the current EU leadership, the European Union and NATO have signed two historic Joint Declarations, which have opened a whole new phase in our partnership. Our two organizations share 22 Members and the same set of values: our mandates are different but—most importantly—they are complementary. While NATO remains the pillar of Europe’s collective defense, there are tasks that can only be performed by an organization of a different nature, such as the European Union (EU). The EU contribution to our common security is unique and increasingly relevant in our dangerous world.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

427. Pathologies of Centralized State-Building

Author:: Jennifer Murtazashvili
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The international community, led by the United States, has invested trillions of dollars in state-building efforts during the past two decades. Yet despite this commitment of substantial resources, conflict and violence remain a challenge in fragile states. It therefore seems especially important to consider the reasons why state-building has not lived up to its expectations. One plausible explanation for the failure of state-building in Afghanistan is that the government remains extremely centralized in all critical dimensions, including the power of the executive, subnational governance, judicial institutions, public budgeting and finance, and the national security forces. Of these, only the Afghan National Army has implemented meaningful reforms. In the other areas, almost no reform has occurred compared to the institutional status quo before 2001. A consequence is that most Afghans continue to experience the same type of centralized, predatory state that they endured prior to 2001. Paradoxically, by resurrecting the centralized, predatory state, the stabilization effort continues to give rise to an antigovernment insurgency across the country.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Governance, and State Building
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

428. The Digital Maginot Line: Autonomous Warfare and Strategic Incoherence

Author:: Michael P. Ferguson
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Just as the Maginot Line created an illusion of security, guaranteed standoff, and physical protection that made its shattering during the blitzkrieg of 1940 all the more shocking to the French polity, the pursuit of militarized robotics and autonomous systems (RAS) and artificial intelligence (AI) has led many to believe that the key to a more efficient and secure future lay within these technologies. The United States Armed Forces owe themselves and their civilian leaders honesty regarding a prudent approach to integrating AI and a pragmatic vision of the threats and risks associated with relying on these systems to achieve future policy goals.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

429. The Domestic Politics of Nuclear Choices

Author:: Elizabeth N. Saunders
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: When and how do domestic politics influence a state's nuclear choices? Recent scholarship on nuclear security develops many domestic-political explanations for different nuclear decisions. These explanations are partly the result of two welcome trends: first, scholars have expanded the nuclear timeline, examining state behavior before and after nuclear proliferation; and second, scholars have moved beyond blunt distinctions between democracies and autocracies to more fine-grained understandings of domestic constraints. But without linkages between them, new domestic-political findings could be dismissed as a laundry list of factors that do not explain significant variation in nuclear decisions. This review essay assesses recent research on domestic politics and nuclear security, and develops a framework that illuminates when and how domestic-political mechanisms are likely to affect nuclear choices. In contrast to most previous domestic arguments, many of the newer domestic-political mechanisms posited in the literature are in some way top-down; that is, they show leaders deliberately maintaining or loosening control over nuclear choices. Two dimensions govern the extent and nature of domestic-political influence on nuclear choices: the degree of threat uncertainty and the costs and benefits to leaders of expanding the circle of domestic actors involved in a nuclear decision. The framework developed in this review essay helps make sense of several cases explored in the recent nuclear security literature. It also has implications for understanding when and how domestic-political arguments might diverge from the predictions of security-based analyses.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Domestic Politics, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iran, and North Korea

430. Buying Allies: Payment Practices in Multilateral Military Coalition-Building

Author:: Marina Henke
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Many countries serving in multilateral military coalitions are “paid” to do so, either in cash or in concessions relating to other international issues. An examination of hundreds of declassified archival sources as well as elite interviews relating to the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization operation in Afghanistan, the United Nations–African Union operation in Darfur, and the African Union operation in Somalia reveals that these payment practices follow a systematic pattern: pivotal states provide the means to cover such payments. These states reason that rewarding third parties to serve in multilateral coalitions holds important political benefits. Moreover, two distinct types of payment schemes exist: deployment subsidies and political side deals. Three types of states are most likely to receive such payments: (1) states that are inadequately resourced to deploy; (2) states that are perceived by the pivotal states as critical contributors to the coalition endeavor; and (3) opportunistic states that perceive a coalition deployment as an opportunity to negotiate a quid pro quo. These findings provide a novel perspective on what international burden sharing looks like in practice. Moreover, they raise important questions about the efficiency and effectiveness of such payment practices in multilateral military deployments.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Kuwait, Vietnam, Korea, and Somalia

431. Winter 2018 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:: Ruben Safrastyan
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:: Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:: SECURITY ISSUES IN EURASIA ARTSRUN HOVHANNISYAN ASIA-PACIFIC THEATER IN FOCUS: COMPARISON OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS OF NEAR-PEER COMPETITORS, CURRENT ISSUES ...........4 TINA KHARATYAN THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF AZERBAIJAN: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS AND POLICY IMPLICATION ...............21 HRANUSH DERMOYAN THE 2016 COUP ATTEMPT IN TURKEY: A RESULT OF CHANGING CIVIL-MILITARY BALANCE IN TURKEY .........................41 LIANA HAYRAPETYAN RADICAL ISLAM IN RUSSIA: THE CASE OF TATARSTAN ..................61 THE ARAB WORLD IN TRANSITION ARAKS PASHAYAN SAUDI ARABIA-QATAR. FROM COOPERATION TO CONFRONTATION ................................................................................80 GOR GEVORGYAN THE NEW STRATEGY OF THE U. S. MIDDLE EAST POLICY AND EGYPT ..................................................................................90 MUSHEGH GHAHRIYAN THE KURDISH FACTOR IN IRAQ-GULF ARAB STATES RELATIONS .....................................................................100 SOUTH CAUCASUS: REGIONAL CONFLICTS AND CHALLENGES LILIT GALSTYAN RUSSIA AND THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT: SPOILING THROUGH MEDIATION? ...................................................... 114 ZURAB TARGAMADZE CONFLICTS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF NATIONALISM: CASE OF GEORGIA ...................................................................................133 KRISTINE MARGARYAN AZERBAIJAN’S INVOLVEMENT IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM ......................................................................................................................146
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Military Affairs, Weapons, Conflict, Coup, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, South Caucasus, and Asia-Pacific

432. Winter 2019 issue of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:: Ruben Safrastyan
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:: Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:: ARMENIA IN THE REGIONAL CONTEXT SAREN ABGARYAN BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE AND THE INCREASING RELEVANCE OF ARMENIA-CHINA BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATY ...................... 4 MANE BABAJANYAN TACKLING ARMENIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS IN THE POST-SOVIET AGE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES .............. 21 ANNA KARAPETYAN THE NEW DYNAMICS ՕF THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE INTERNAL PROCESSES IN ARMENIA IN 2018 .......................................................................................................... 47 RESOURCE COMPETITION IN THE MIDDLE EAST ARAM ABAJYAN THE ROLE OF GULF REGION’S ENERGY SUPPLIERS IN CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY AT THE TURN OF THE 21ST CENTURY ............. 62 SHOGHIK TADEVOSYAN HYDRO-HEGEMONY IN ACTION: THE PROBLEM OF WATER IN THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT ................................................. 82 WORKSHOP DEDICATED TO CONTEMPORARY EURASIA ............ 106
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Water, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: China, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Palestine, Armenia, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

433. The North Korean Factor in the Sino-Russian Alliance

Author:: Stephen Blank
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Kim-Putin summit in April 2019 and the abortive Trump-Kim summit in February 2019 compel us to review Korean issues from the regional security standpoint, rather than primarily as a proliferation question. Despite apparent failure of the Trump-Kim summit, the search for denuclearization and peace in Korea will continue. North Korea is obviously resuming discussions with Russia and China to decide their future course of action, inasmuch as Kim went to Vladivostok. The summit with Putin in April only reinforced those considerations, as it is clear from the subsequent press conference that Kim asked Putin to transmit his views to Washington and that Putin agreed to do so. Likewise, Washington must rethink its approach. Instead of emphasizing denuclearization, Washington would likely benefit from viewing Korean issues primarily as regional security questions. Certainly, Russia and China do so. Therefore, rethinking Russo-Chinese ties to North Korea offers valuable insights in the quest for a lasting Korean peace, especially as Russia and China have become allies.5 The argument of a Sino-Russian alliance is admittedly a minority view among scholars, but the mounting evidence of their alliance is apparent not only in regard to Korea—as the other chapters in this collection show—but in larger military-political affairs as well.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and North Korea

434. Sino-Russian Relations, South Korea, and North Korea

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This examination of the relations among these four governments assesses the ever-closer China-Russia relationship featuring stronger strategic alignment against the United States and its interests in many parts of the world, including the Korean Peninsula. It also considers how the Sino-Russian relationship reacted to the major changes in the Korean Peninsula brought on by the string of remarkable developments on the peninsula since 2017. Those developments include: the Donald Trump administration’s heavy pressure against North Korean nuclear weapons development in 2017; North Korea’s abrupt shift away from confrontation and toward negotiations with the U.S. and South Korea in early 2018; the subsequent dramatic shift toward top-level U.S.-North Korea negotiations to ease tensions and improve relations seen in Trump’s meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June 2018 and February 2019; and active, related North Korean summitry with South Korea and China. In this period, China and Russia in relations with South Korea and North Korea repeatedly worked together to offset U.S. pressures and undermine U.S. influence. Developments over the past two years have seen China emerge as a critically important player with a major role in all aspects of negotiations involving the crisis caused by North Korea’s rapid development and repeated testing of nuclear weapons and related development and testing of ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead as far as the continental U.S. By contrast, Russia’s role and influence have declined in importance. The failed revival of the Six-Party Talks, in which Russia and Japan played a direct role along with North and South Korea, China, and the U.S. in dealing with the North Korean nuclear weapons crisis, and the current regional dynamic focused on only the four latter powers means that Moscow and Tokyo have been marginalized by recent developments. Such an outcome challenges the Russian government of President Vladimir Putin and its drive to play a prominent role as a leading world power on issues important to Russian interests. Demonstrating new prominence, Putin hosted visiting Kim during a brief summit long sought by Russia in Vladivostok on April 25. The Russian leader said North Korea’s security concerns would be better met with international guarantees involving Russia and China rather than bilateral North Korean agreements with the U.S. Up until this point, Russia had been playing second fiddle to Beijing, repeatedly siding with China in matters regarding the Korean Peninsula. China, for its part, seemed comfortable with close cooperative relations with Russia as it deals with Korean matters. Whatever differences the two may have over Korean issues have been difficult to discern amid their collaboration and cooperation, which focus on weakening the American position in Korea and Northeast Asia.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

435. The China-Russia-North Korea Triangle After Kim Jong-un's Turn to Diplomacy

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The triangle of Beijing-Moscow-Pyongyang has great significance for the geopolitics of not only Northeast Asia, but the globe. It played a critical role in the 1950 launching of the Korean War, when the Cold War took shape. It became the subject of much speculation in the 2000s, when the Six-Party Talks offered hope that the post-Cold War framework could become one of trust based on shared interests in peace and stability and joint prosperity focused on Northeast Asia. Today, it is again worthy of close attention, as diplomacy has intensified in an atmosphere of increasing polarization. Various alternatives for the future of this triangle have recently been suggested. The options offered for the emerging China-Russia-North Korea triangle include the following. One, a North Korean defection centered on a deal with the United States and an understanding with South Korea allowing for gradual inter-Korean integration with economics in the forefront. Two, a Chinese sphere of influence, which Russia is too weak to resist and North Korea prefers to the danger of regime change through Korean integration and U.S. demands for openness and human rights. Three, a balanced triangular alliance, where North Korea resumes playing off its allies in Beijing and Moscow without having to take the side of either, but this time without a serious split between the two great powers. Four, maximum autonomy of Pyongyang carving space among the five states most concerned with its destiny, leaving this triangle with no more significance than the triangle with the U.S. and South Korea. Fast-moving, diplomatic developments in 2018-2019 provide some evidence for assessing these alternative outcomes.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and North Korea

436. Poland’s Energy Security Strategy

Author:: Zuzanna Samson
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Poland, as one of the European countries experiencing the most significant economic growth in recent years, permanently relies on coal power. There are plenty of reasons behind this condition, however, wanting to become one of the European leaders Poland ought to diversify its energy sources and lower the share of those harmful to the natural environment. Some changes have already been implemented, nevertheless the Polish government is mostly reluctant to diminish the role of coal mines. Moreover, the current actions taken to diversify sources of natural gas imports are dependent on Polish foreign policy and international alliances. The author analyzes changes in the Polish energy security strategy in recent years and compares them with provisions established during COP24. The article analyzes the Polish energy market with the share of individual sources and examines the possibility to increase the share of those alternative to coal in the near future.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

437. The Role of the Arctic in Chinese Naval Strategy

Author:: Ryan D. Martinson
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In her recent China Brief article, Dr. Anne-Marie Brady examined the prospect of China deploying military power to the Arctic (China Brief, December 10). Applying the methods she used in her pathbreaking 2017 book, Brady draws from authoritative Chinese sources to demonstrate the growing importance of the Arctic in China’s strategic calculus. [1] She also cites a host of other indications that Beijing intends to send naval forces—especially submarines—north through the Bering Strait. Her research provides important context for an oracular 2019 U.S. Department of Defense claim that China could be laying the foundation for naval operations in the Arctic (Department of Defense, May 2). Building on the excellent work done by Brady and others, this article argues that the available evidence allows for more categorical conclusions about China’s Arctic intentions. Specifically, the Chinese Navy has formally decided to incorporate Arctic ambitions into its naval strategy, and Chinese scientists and engineers are already conducting research to help it realize these ambitions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Territory
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Arctic

438. China’s 2020 Economic Agenda: Maintaining Stability Amid Flux

Author:: Yun Jiang and Adam Ni
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China’s top annual economic policy gathering, the Central Economic Work Conference (中央经济工作会议, Zhongyang jingji gongzuo huiyi), or CEWC, was held between December 10 and 12 in Beijing. This year’s CEWC focused on the theme of “achieving developmental progress on the basis of first ensuring stability” (稳字当头, 稳中求进 / wen zi dangtou, wen zhong qiu jin) (Xinhua, December 12)—thereby continuing a theme stressed during the meeting of the National People’s Congress in March of this year (China Brief, March 22). Given increasing economic risks and political challenges, both domestic and international, the party-state’s focus on the supremacy of stability is unsurprising. Importantly, the CEWC reiterates that the goal of achieving a “moderately prosperous society” (小康社会, xiaokang shehui) by the end of 2020 is “a priority among priorities” (重中之重, zhong zhong zhi zhong). This article examines the key outcomes of the 2019 CEWC, which set the overall direction of China’s economic policy agenda for 2020. In doing so, we highlight a central underlying tension: on the one hand, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to keep a steady ship at a time of economic and strategic flux; on the other, maintaining strong economic growth requires ambitious developmental goals and economic reform imperatives, which have added pressure for bold policy actions. How well Chinese policymakers can navigate this tension in 2020 has important ramifications for both China’s national development and the CCP’s political legitimacy.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Legitimacy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

439. Citizenship Deprivation under the European Convention-System

Author:: Louise Reyntjens
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In response to Islamic-inspired terrorism and the growing trend of foreign fighters, European governments are increasingly relying on citizenship deprivation as a security tool. This paper will focus on the question of how the fundamental rights of individuals deprived of their citizenship are affected and which protection is offered for them by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’). In many countries, these new and broader deprivation powers were left unaccompanied by stronger (procedural) safeguards that protect the human rights they might affect. Unlike the Universal Declaration of Human Rights or the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the ECHR does not provide for an explicit right to citizenship. The question therefore rises what protection, if any, is offered by the ECHR system against citizenship deprivation and for the right to citizenship. Through a case study of the Belgian measure of citizenship deprivation, the (implicit) protection provided by the Convention-system is demonstrated.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Citizenship, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

440. The Influence of strategic culture on shaping security policy

Author:: Adrian Mitrega and Marian Kozub
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: The aim of the article is to present the role that strategic culture plays in creating and shaping security of the future. Taking account of the purpose of this paper, the main research problem took the form of the following question: To what extent does strategic culture have an influence on shaping security of the future? Methods: In order to achieve the aim of this paper and solve the main research problem, the following research methods will be applied: method of analysis, synthesis and method of conclusion.The empirical methods facilitate examination of processes with the aim of drawing conclusions. The article uses research method such as observation. Results: Strategic culture is not a dogma or a camera through which we can look into the past or the future. It is a tool useful for understanding how and what the circumstances are in which a country defines appropriate measures and goals to achieve its goals regarding security. Conclusions: Strategic culture can help to understand the real cultural identity of a particular entity (such as a country or an organization) and its role in the system of international relations in a better way. Therefore, it can contribute to a better understanding of security policy implemented by the entity and what is more, the analysis of strategic culture can lead to a better understanding of the opponent's strategic behaviour on the basis on how the opponent defines victory, defeat, loss or suffering.
Topic:: Security, Future, and Strategic Culture
Political Geography:: Global Focus

441. The impact of crime on security in tourism

Author:: Hrvoje Mataković
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: Tourism has become one of the main economic sectors of the 21st century. Today, tourism is facing various security threats such as terrorism, crime and potential armed conflicts, and the most common security threat to tourism is crime. The aim of this paper is to analyse how crime affects security in tourism and to describe the consequences of crime for tourism. Methods: A descriptive method was used in this paper to explain the concept of security in tourism and to analyse the relationship between tourism and crime. The data was drawn from the scientific and professional literature and policy documents on this subject. Results: The impact of crime on tourism can be seen on two levels: the macro and micro levels. The impact of crime on the macro level refers to its effects on society in general, on the social community or tourist destination, and the impact of crime at the micro level refers to the effects of crime on individuals. The most significant impact of crime on a tourist destination is the negative image of the destination, resulting in reduced tourist demand. The impact of crime on the micro level is evident in the influence on the behaviour and attitudes of tourists, and their decision to visit or revisit a destination where criminal incidents happen. Conclusions: Crime can have a very negative impact on tourism and security in tourism can not be taken for granted, so it is necessary to make significant efforts to ensure a safe environment for tourists. In order to prevent crime and to create a safe environment for tourists, it is necessary to ensure the cooperation all stakeholders involved in tourism: the tourism industry, local community, national authorities, police and state agencies.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Tourism, and Victimization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

442. China and its wests – evolution of security dynamics and its consequences for the defence industries of the involved actors

Author:: Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: OBJECTIVES: The research objective of the paper is to analyse the recent, ever more pronounced shifts and changes in security dynamics between China and its “Wests”. METHODS: The methods used in the study consist of in-depth going qualitative research and analysis of Western journals as well as an investigation and translation of primary Chinese sources. RESULTS: Each cooperation effort and security partnership between China and the analysed partners means that the defence capabilities of one player will affect those of the other. This is a matter of concern for those who are currently in a position that relies on the import of military and intelligence equipment from stronger actors, as such a relationship may provide easier access and leverage for giants such as China to influence their domestic foreign policy and security agendas. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study shed light on the on-going relevance of the question: is it possible to find space in which actors can achieve their own security objectives that is beneficial for the development of their defence industries without challenging the foreign policies of one another? Can competition between China and the actors it interacts with be conducted primarily in the political and economic field, with security relations only focusing on peaceful imports and exports instead of an arms race? One may only speculate.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

443. Sanitary aviation in post-war Poland – historical outline

Author:: Robert Wit Rezner
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: The aim of this research paper is to present the history of sanitary aviation in postwar Poland since 1945 up till now. In the course of research the following methods were used: analysis, synthesis, abstraction and generalization. The outcome of the research is presentation of the 74 year history of restoring aviation as an element of medical rescue system in postwar Poland. Methods: In the course of research the following theoretical research methods were used: analysis, synthesis, abstraction and generalization. Results: It has been proved that due to great involvement of Polish aviators the operational capacity of medical service system was restored in a short period of time benefitting by the pre war experience and that of other dynamically developing countries of Western Europe. The historical facts had crucial influence on the present make up of Aviation Emergency Medical Service. Conclusions: Presently the formation owns modern aircraft and equipment compliant with worldwide standards of HEMS Helicopter Emergency Medical Service.
Topic:: Security, History, Medicine, and Aviation
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

444. Social structure determinants of Polish military manpower

Author:: Roman Kopka
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: This paper sets out to identify the key elements of Polish social structure that are critical to the manpower of the Polish Armed Forces. So far, there has been little discussion, in either the literature or ongoing public polemics, regarding the dependence of the Armed Forces on the shape of the social structure in the context of ensuring state security. Methods: This work is predominantly based on the analysis of available literature: scientific articles, legal acts and the results from the survey research conducted by specialised institutions, in particular, Polish Central Statistical Office. Results: On the basis of the presented analysis, it appears that it is the current Polish social structure that constitutes the major problem in the context of the insufficient personnel numbers in the Polish Armed Forces. The present state is below the expectations and needs of the Polish Army, mainly due to the lack of young people with special technical education. The earnings in the private sector by far outweigh the remuneration levels offered in the military, which effectively deters young people from undertaking service for the benefit of state security.On the basis of the presented analysis, it appears that it is the current Polish social structure that constitutes the major problem in the context of the insufficient personnel numbers in the Polish Armed Forces. The present state is below the expectations and needs of the Polish Army, mainly due to the lack of young people with special technical education. The earnings in the private sector by far outweigh the remuneration levels offered in the military, which effectively deters young people from undertaking service for the benefit of state security. Conclusions: The research material presented in this work reflects on the current state and the aggravation of the important social problem – deficiency of manpower in the Polish Armed Forces. It has been shown that apart from the financial background and the quantities of the personnel appointed to military service, it is its quality – in the aspect of special technical education – that is yet another crucial condition.The research material presented in this work reflects on the current state and the aggravation of the important social problem – deficiency of manpower in the Polish Armed Forces. It has been shown that apart from the financial background and the quantities of the personnel appointed to military service, it is its quality – in the aspect of special technical education – that is yet another crucial condition.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Military, and Social Structure
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

445. Modern aspects of the development of security in air transport under the conditions of air terrorism

Author:: Daniel Michalski and Adam Radomyski
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: The authors determined the following aim of this article: identifying threats generated by air terrorism as well as characterizing the forms, methods, and manners. Methods: Authors used theoretical methods of research. The article presents research findings with regard to the organization and operation of security systems in civil air transport. At the article, the authors focused on air terrorism and security system in the airport. Results: The presented results of the study are not limited only to the theoretical aspects of terrorism. Authors also characterize organizational and technical undertakings that have already been implemented into security systems in aviation by national and intergovernmental institutions, responsible for its protection. Conclusions: Regardless of the form of air terrorism and applied means, an important issue is a fact that every attempt to intercept an aerial asset is attractive for terrorists, due to the fact that each time it causes not only damage or destruction of the machine itself and the death of passengers, but it is also a real threat to airport infrastructure, installations and urban residents. In addition, the events are accompanied by high-profile media coverage.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Transportation, and Airports
Political Geography:: Global Focus

446. Russia's return to the superpower status

Author:: Mirosław Minkina
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: The elite of Russian power and Russian society have never come to terms with the collapse of the Soviet Union. They also did not accept the world order with the primary role of the United States. The purpose of this article is to characterize the policy of the Russian Federation, which is aimed at rebuilding the superpower position of this state, and to identify the reasons that clearly define Russia’s determination in this respect. Methods: Achieving the formulated goal will be possible by answering the question: Why does Russia strive to rebuild the status of the global superpower and what actions it undertakes in its policy? This question is the main research problem, which the authors of the article have taken up. In order to solve the indicated problem, theoretical methods will be used in the form of: source and literature criticiam, analysis, synthesis and inference. Results: Nobody negates the fact that Russia is still one of the largest countries in the world. Nonetheless, it is much smaller and weaker than the USSR. By means of assertive, not to say aggressive, and anti-western politics it demands to be recognized as a superpower eligible to decide on the international order. However, in the contemporary world, the territory decides about the superpower status to a much smaller extent. Conclusions: The foundations of the Russian superpower status are weak, and the popular anti-western narrative is not conducive to strengthening the Kremlin's position internationally.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, and Superpower
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

447. Recent U.S. and International Assessment of Baltic Security Developments

Author:: Bert Chapman
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: Examining analysis of Baltic security developments from U.S. government and military resources, scholarly journal articles, and multinational public policy research institute assessments. Methods: Analyzing content and rhetoric within these resources to learn how those producing these materials view Baltic security developments and their viewpoints on how the U.S. and its allies should respond to these developments focusing on increasing Russian regional assertiveness. Results: Provides interpretations of Baltic security developments, Russian Baltic policy, and U.S. and NATO responses ot these developments in materials produced by U.S. civilian and military policymakers and multinational scholarly analysis. Includes performance assessments of U.S. programs including the European Deterrence Initiative and potential Russian military activity in the Baltics as reflected in varying reports by the U.S. Government, military, and multinational public policy research institutions. Conclusions: Recommends U.S. and NATO countries recognize a new Cold War exists with a revisionist Russia. Advocates continuing NATO military exercise, upgrading civilian and military infrastructure protection, and enhancing U.S. and allied preparedness. Urges ongoing and candid dialogue between NATO and Russia to keep this situation from erupting into war. Insists the U.S. and its allies adroitly respond to Russian attempts to influence and manipulate public opinion toward Moscow. Expresses concern that U.S. partisan division over 2016 Russian interference in U.S. presidential election makes achieving greater Baltic policy cohesion difficult. Advocates warning Russia of devastating consequences of attempts to militarily invade or subvert Baltic countries.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Geopolitics, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, United States of America, and Baltic States

448. Combating destabilising forces in modern operations. Research report

Author:: Wojciech Robert Więcek
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Undertaking to determine scientifically substantiated conditions for the functioning of destabilising forces and methods for countering them in contemporary operations fits in the broad scope of security. This paper reports the results of the study that employed survey methodology to investigate the matter of destabilising forces in order to provide the contribution to the current body of literature in the field. Recently published scientific and non-scientific studies in Polish and English on destabilising forces, despite the semantic differences, refer to a large extent to the problem of acting and combating such groups. The paper puts forward a series of conclusions and proposals with the intention of inspiring the critical evaluation and to encourage substantive polemics in the pages of specialist scientific periodicals. This material may serve as the basis for further detailed research into destabilising forces – the subject that is not only a pressing current issue, but above all a prospective area for research as part of the security sciences.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Research, Destabilization, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

449. Lithuania in European Union common security and defence policy context

Author:: Donatas Palavenis
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: EU Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) that encompasses 29 nations is gaining momentum. The aim of this study is to acknowledge ongoing developments in EU CSDP and define their impact for Lithuanian defence and security policy. Comparative scientific literature and document analysis method was used throughout this study. Article firstly reviews a path of EU CSDP developments, outlines roles and responsibilities of EU structures and examines current activities in CSDP framework with the focus to Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Second part is devoted to consider Lithuanian’s role in current EU CSDP context, to outline decisions that Lithuanian authorities made to implement new PESCO initiative. Study reveals that: CSDP remains adaptive framework for EU; established procedures ensure CSDP is in compromise with all of nations; PESCO initiative signals positive outcomes while reinforcing idea of “EU Strategic autonomy”. Furthermore it was indentified that: approved National Security Strategy backs current EU initiatives; PESCO could provide flexible response options without duplicating NATO’s efforts; national participation in PESCO initiatives will enable improvements in cyber security and will enable rapid access for possible EU and NATO troops deployments; participation in PESCO negotiation phase reached given political aims to seek more extensive projects and position nation within core members of EU. Lithuanian policies’ shift for deeper engagement in CSDP is likely shaped by recognition that strategic trans-Atlantic partnership is not certain anymore, as well as UK role at post-Brexit period as 3rd party.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Security, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Lithuania

450. European Union common security and defence policy and Latvian involvement in EU battlegroups

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: In this article, the author analyses types of Europeanisation: top-down, bottom-up, horizontal, circular, and looks at Latvian involvement in the EU CSDP capability project - EU Battlegroups. Additionally, the author analyses the EU CSDP strategies in 2003 and 2016 with emphasis on key threats and key directions of action for the security of the EU. If it is necessary, EU Battlegroups can become involved to secure the EU. In the article, the author examines Latvian involvement in EU Battlegroups and changes in political planning documents and legal acts regarding EU Battlegroups. The author shows that for the future, it is necessary to involve an EU Battlegroup in real action in the area of operations, and that it is necessary to initiate discussions on a possible review and evaluation of the format of the EU Battlegroup.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Latvia

451. Concerns on the issue of defence expenditure in the post-crisis Greece

Author:: Odysseus Katsaitis, Konstantine Kondylis, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The paper aims to tackle a controversial issue, namely the anticipated developments regarding defence expenditure once the Greek economy returns to growth. Such a comeback is expected to occur following a prolonged recessionary period during which defence spending cuts were a top priority, as recommended by the IMF, the ECB and the EC, members of the so-called “Troika”. The paper uses both conventional econometrics as well as neural networks to consider and evaluate the hierarchy’s ordering of the determinants used in such a demand for defence expenditure based on their explanatory power. While the role of property resources is certainly pronounced, as expected, human resources variables also seem to be able to explain defence spending developments, especially in the recent past. A forecasting investigation based on this background points to a number of interesting conclusions on the anticipated developments concerning defence spending in the future as well as on the determinants of such developments which might represent a threat to NATO cohesion.
Topic:: Security, Crisis Management, Economic Security, Arms Race, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

452. Preparing for future security challenges with practitioner research

Author:: David Last, Travis Morris, and Bernadette Dececchi
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Mid-sized countries face a changing security environment, and cannot be certain that the knowledge and practices of the past will serve the future. The officers, professors, and researchers in defence universities are the custodians of military sciences that must adapt to these changing situations. Practitioner research should be modelled and encouraged in defence universities as a vehicle for advancing military sciences to meet new challenges. Previous practitioner research in higher and adult education has highlighted the need for experiential learning in other professions. The authors report on practitioner research by professors at pre-commission military academies to improve cadets’ understanding of peace and conflict. Military and police education is often experience-based, but there are few reports of practitioner research on its effectiveness, nor of combining peace and conflict education with out-of-classroom experiences. Legitimation Code Theory provides tools for understanding different teaching approaches. Comparing four cases of practitioner research on experiential learning the authors present models for practitioner research on teaching peace and conflict through out-of-classroom experiences, and conclude with means of evaluating learning experiences by pre-commission cadets, drawing on legitimation code theory. This is increasingly important for military academies striving to meet academic standards, but also to preserve professional values and young officer motivation to confront new challenges.
Topic:: Security, Education, Armed Forces, Research, Future, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

453. The royal military college of Canada: Responding to the call for change

Author:: Harry J. Kowal
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The Royal Military College of Canada (RMC) has a very proud history of producing quality officers for over 140 years, delivering excellence in education, research and military training that is responsive to the needs of Canada, the Defence community and the ever-changing global security environment. RMC is unique as it is a military unit that is also a recognized university. The primary mission of RMC is to support the Regular Officer Training Plan (ROTP) by educating, developing and inspiring bilingual and fit, ethical leaders to serve the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and Canada with distinction. Since RMC opened its doors in 1876 to the fi rst 18 cadets, there have been a number of studies that have examined the RMC program and that have been the catalyst for positive change. T ese pivotal moments in history have been indispensable for RMC to remain relevant and continually improve. Of late, there has been a significant amount of attention placed on RMC again, defi ning another pivotal moment in RMC’s history that has become the catalyst for change once again. In October 2016, the Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), General Jonathan Vance, initiated a Special Staff Assistance Visit (SSAV) to ensure the high standards expected of RMC are upheld and the Auditor General (AG) of Canada, Mr. Michael Ferguson, completed an audit of the ROTP at RMC, the results of which were presented to Parliament in November 2017. Many changes are already in place, but there is more work to do. With a look at governance, the four-pillar program and the call for change, this paper outlines what steps RMC has and will be taken to posture this ‘university with a difference’ for success for years to come.
Topic:: Security, Education, Armed Forces, Training, and Military
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

454. Non-military determinants of the Russian Federation policy

Author:: Bogdan Grenda
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study analyses various non-military factors in shaping the security policy of the Russian Federation. This work undertakes to establish their substance, content and scope, and to draw the conditions and trends in the political, economic and social security of modern Russia in the context of its international ambitions, role and state security. In the work theoretical method analysis, synthesis, abstracting and generalization were used. Based on the results of the research, it was determined that the specificity of its location definitely exerts an adverse effect on Russian state security. The reconstruction of imperial Russia is among the key goals set forth by Vladimir Putin in Russia’s foreign and military policy. In fact, the entire economic, political and military activity of Russia is subordinated to this goal. With regard to the economic and social state, the dependence of the Russian Federation on the extraction and export of crude oil and natural gas is an obvious indication of the constraints of its economy. Moscow’s particular interests are formulated in official state documents, such as the Military Doctrine and the National Security Strategy. These documents identify not only external and internal threats to state security but above all indicate the means and methods of possible deterrence.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Social Security, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

455. Hybridity – a ‘new’ method to accomplish dominance

Author:: Leszek Elak and Zdzislaw Sliwa
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The term ‘hybrid warfare’ proved to be very popular among academics, military thinkers and professionals leading to a variety of definitions and approaches. It was linked with the new generation concept popularised by Russian military thought. The essence of the hybridity is not new, as using a combination of military and non-military instruments is as old as mankind and is recognised but interpreted differently. The paper examines both the concept and its implementation based on case studies and theoretical considerations. It debates possible ways of using it to confront targeted nations by a combination of a variety of tools and approaches.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Hybrid Warfare, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

456. Preparation of Polish police officers for peace missions

Author:: Kamil Kuć and Walentyna Trzcińska
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Conflicts in the 21st century have forced qualitative changes in the way of training missionary personnel. Police forces are currently used in various joint operations, which include, among others, elements of the fight against terrorism, ensuring the security of civilians and training of security forces. New types of operations require corrected preparation systems. This article analyses the previous way of preparing such units as Individual Police Officers, Specialized Police Teams, Formed Police Units, as well as the issue related to the training modification proposal, and one of them is the implementation of the virtual game “Gaming for Peace” as a supplement to the training gap through modern and more effective training.
Topic:: Security, Peacekeeping, Training, and Police
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

457. “Autonomisation” of security and defence systems

Author:: Artur Kuptel
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Development of systems with an evolving level of autonomy is among the most controversial and yet promising aspects of military forces’ modernisation. The application of quasi- artificial intelligence in combat machines opens a new uncharted area of possibilities. In essence, these modifications aim to reduce the extent of human interference in the functioning of unmanned systems virtually to none. The potential risks are explored in dangerous scenarios, which consider that apart from offering far-reaching advantages of using platforms with autonomic capabilities, they can be used against humanity. These scenarios assume a pivotal role in forecasting possible directions for development of the armed forces. This paper attempts to determine the essence of combat systems autonomy while focusing on a few of the most sensitive issues. For a transparent and credible debate on combat systems autonomy, it is adviseable that no ambiguity is present in terminological, ethical, legal and technological complexities, whose misinterpretation may become a source of unnecessary understatements or even lead to distortion of the debate.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

458. Climate Change: Conflict and Cooperation (Full Issue)

Author:: Meagan Torello, Rafael Leal-Arcas, Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia, Carmel Davis, Ziad Al Achkar, Ang Zhao, Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, Molly Jahn, Therese Adam, Peter J. Schraeder, Juan Macias-Amoretti, and Karim Bejjit
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: In the first issue of our 20th volume, the cooperative and conflictual nature of climate change in international relations is explored. Rafael Leal-Arcas analyzes the necessity of a symbiotic relationship between bottom-up and top-down negotiations to implement clean energy consumption. Following, Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia begin this issue's dialogue on climate change and security. Carmel Davis discusses the effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa's ability to develop and subsequently mitigate conflict. Similarly, Ziad Al Achkar outlines the economic, environmental, and security threats in the Arctic as its ice continues to melt. Zhao Ang then discusses China's ability and incentives to pursuing a greener economy. Following, Buddikha Jayamaha, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn discuss the security and development of climate change implications in the Sahel region. The main portion of this issue proudly concludes with the Journal's interview with former Swiss Ambassador Therese Adam on climate change negotiations and the great potential for civil society engagement. Following the climate change portion of this issue, we feature a special sup-topic: Africa Rising. Here, Peter Schraeder discusses the effects of President Donald Trump's foreign policy in Africa. Juan Macías-Amoretti analyzes the role of Islam in Moroccan politics, while Karim Bejjit concludes with a discussion on Morocco's growing relationship with the AU.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Islam, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, Asia, North Africa, Switzerland, Morocco, Sahel, and Global Focus

459. Implications of Climate Change for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Increased Conflict and Fragmentation

Author:: Carmel Davis
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: What are the implications of climate change for security in low-income countries? As global warming approaches and passes 1.5°C, climate change will reduce income, disrupt social relations, and fragment authority. I focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) because its large agricultural sector is sensitive to climate change and will likely see effects earlier than in other regions. The first section discusses climate change, particularly on the large agricultural sector in SSA. The next two sections analyze two channels by which climate change will affect SSA. First, a survey of quantitative analyses demonstrates a correlation between the level and growth of income and the outbreak of civil wars; climate change will likely decease income in the agricultural sector so the frequency of civil war outbreak will likely increase. Second, climate change will reduce the salience of then-current qualitative strategies of survival and increase the salience of new ones, which will likely increase social disruption and reduce government authority. The last sections discuss adaptation and conclude that a major effect of climate change will be fragmented authority and increased disorder in low-income areas.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Civil War, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa

460. The Thirty Years Climate Warning: Climate Change, Security, and the Responsibility to Prepare

Author:: Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: The end of the Cold War coincided with the beginning of global awareness about the risks of climate change. This paper analyzes a thirty-year period beginning with the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and ending in the present year of 2018. This period is characterized by unprecedented social, political, economic and climatic shifts, as well as first-time technological change-including improvements in our ability to predict future changes in the climate and their implications for international security.1 Importantly, while some of these changes have caught the international security community off-guard, we have seen the climate risks coming for many decades. The combination of unprecedented risks and foresight underscore a “Responsibility to Prepare.” This involves taking all possible steps to avoid an unmanageable climate, and climate-proofing of our security institutions at national, regional and international levels.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Cold War, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

461. Russian Diplomacy: Challenging the West

Author:: Charles E Ziegler
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: According to classical realism, diplomacy is the means by which states defend their interests and achieve their objectives short of war, using a mixture of persuasion, compromise, and the threat of force. In the quartercentury since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian diplomacy has evolved from a passive, Western-orientation toward a muscular, multilateral and assertive posture. In the immediate post-perestroika years Russian diplomacy reflected the nascent democratic character of the new Russia, and the search for a new post-Soviet identity. Since Vladimir Putin ascended to the presidency, Russian diplomacy has become highly effective at several diplomatic issues. These include: Promoting and representing Russian national interests; defending key principles of sovereignty; non-interference in internal affairs; and respect for Russia as a great power; consolidating the former Soviet space as a privileged sphere of Russian influence; and addressing Russia’s vital security concerns in the Eurasian region, including concerns with The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) expansion eastward.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, History, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Soviet Union

462. La crítica neoconservadora a la política exterior de Donald Trump

Author:: Manuel Iglesias Cavicchioli
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Si los neoconservadores se significaron por su obstinada y radical oposición a la política exterior de Barack Obama, su crítica al desempeño presidencial de Donald Trump no puede decirse que sea de menor entidad. Los neoconservadores consideran que la irrupción política del magnate supone una amenaza para la democracia americana, implicando, asimismo, una deriva de importante calado en el seno del Partido Republicano. A partir de un análisis comparativo entre las ideas fundamentales del ‘trumpismo’ y del neoconservadurismo, este artículo se centrará en estudiar cómo, según la visión neoconservadora, la ‘America First’ foreign policy, al claudicar de las responsabilidades globales de los Estados Unidos, pone en peligro el orden mundial liberal y, en última instancia, la seguridad americana y la seguridad internacional. Finalmente, se prestará atención a la existencia de ciertas coincidencias entre Trump y los neoconservadores y se valorará la posibilidad de una relativa influencia neoconservadora en determinados ámbitos de la política exterior de los Estados Unidos.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, and Neoconservatism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

463. The Role of Trauma in Romania’s Ontological Security

Author:: Loretta Salajan
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper analyses Romania’s foreign policy during the first post-communist years, by employing a theoretical viewpoint based on ontological security and trauma. It un- covers the elite efforts to secure the post-totalitarian state’s identity and international course. Romania’s search for ontological security featured the articulation of narratives of victim- hood, which were linked with its proclaimed western European identity. The Romanian identity narrative has long struggled between “the West” and “the East”, trying to cope with traumatic historical events. These discursive themes and ontological insecurities were crys- tallized in the controversy surrounding the Romanian-Soviet “Friendship Treaty” (1991). Key Romanian officials displayed different typical responses to cultural trauma and debated the state’s path to ontological security, which was reflected in the foreign policy positions.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Culture, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Romania

464. Security Dilemma in South Asian Context

Author:: Ghulam Qumber, Waseem Ishaque, and Saqib Riaz
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The paper through the lens of Security Dilemma, implores the international institutions in general and USA in concert with China in particular, to take the driving seat to forestall any eventuality of a nuclear catastrophe to take place in South Asian security architecture. The world is reminded that the Indian ploy of resorting to „Bilateralism‟, has neither borne any dividends in the past 70 years in thwarting the Security Dilemma, nor is likely to resolve any thing at their own any time soon, before it is too late.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Power Politics, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

465. Prospects of Internationalizing Nuclear Security: An Appraisal

Author:: Ahmed Minhas, Farhat Konain Shujahi, and Ghulam Qumber
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Nuclear security has always been a sensitive area for international cooperation and even for sharing the best practices. States have been guarding the information about their nuclear security measures. With the introduction of terrorism phenomenon after 9/11 incident, the international community has been conscious about possibility of an act of nuclear or radiological terrorism. The US President Barack Obama undertook the task of securing the world from this new kind of terrorism and initiated process of Nuclear Security Summits (NSS)from 2010-2016 in which 53 heads of states were invited. It was the highest forum at which nuclear security was discussed; although, cautiously. NSS entrusted IAEA with the lead role in nuclear security at parallel with the nuclear safety. How the IAEA stands up to its added responsibilities in the post NSS process has to be seen in times to come. Pakistan has also come a long way in perfecting its nuclear security measures especially under the challenging scenario of Global War on Terror (GWOT) being contested within and around Pakistan’s geographical borders. Despite the challenging security environments, Pakistan’s nuclear security measures remained steadfast and not a single terrorist act happened. An appraisal of Pakistani nuclear security approach would be useful for nuclear technology aspirant states as a model of nuclear security best practices.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

466. Intervention fever: The politics of Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch

Author:: Deniz Çıtak
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On January 20, 2018 at 17:00 local time, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) entered Afrin, a city in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan named the military operation “Operation Olive Branch” (Zeytin Dalı Harekâtı) for the region’s many olive trees. According to Turkey, the operation does not violate international law because the operation was against the PYD and YPG as an act of self-defense, aiming to guarantee the security of Turkey’s borders. For Turkey, the links between the PKK and Syrian Kurdish groups classify Kurdish activity in northern Syria as a threat to Turkey’s domestic security.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

467. Threat Multiplier: The Growing Security Implications of Climate Change: A Conversation with Sherri Goodman

Author:: Sherri Goodman and Eli Stiefel
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Sherri Goodman is an experienced leader and senior executive, lawyer and director in the fields of national security, energy, science, oceans and environment. She is a Senior Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center and CNA (Center for Naval Analyses), and a Senior Advisor for International Security at the Center for Climate and Security. At CNA, Goodman also served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel and was the founder and Executive Director of the CNA Military Advisory Board, whose landmark reports include National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007), and National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change (2014), Advanced Energy and US National Security (2017), and The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict (2017), among others. Previously, she served as the President and CEO of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. From 1993-2001, Goodman served as the first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security).
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

468. From Energy to Climate Security: The EU’s Evolving Views

Author:: Ellen Scholl
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) has increasingly interconnected energy and climate policy, with the formulation of the Energy Union as one notable — if yet incomplete — step in this direction. In addition to the linkages between energy policy and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet climate goals under the Paris Agreement, the EU has been increasingly vocal about the link between climate and security, and under- taken (at least rhetorical) efforts to incorporate climate security concerns into broader externally focused policy areas. This shift toward a focus on climate security, however, raises questions of how energy security and climate security relate, the impact of the former on the latter, and how the Energy Union fits into this shift, as well as how the EU characterizes climate risk and how this relates to geopolitical risks in its broader neighborhood. It also begs the question of how to go beyond identifying and conceptualizing the security risks posed by climate change to addressing them. This paper charts changes in the EU’s energy and climate security discourse, focusing on their intersection in the Energy Union and the EU’s promotion of the energy transition to lower carbon forms of energy, and the relevant risks in the European neighborhood. The paper concludes that while the EU has evolved to include climate priorities and climate risks into foreign and security policy thinking, the complicated relation- ship between climate change and security complicates efforts to operationalize this in the EU, in relations with the broader European neighborhood, and beyond...
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

469. In a World of War, Could it Be ‘From Russia with Love’: A Conversation with Igor Istomin

Author:: Igor Istomin and Akshobh Giridharadas
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Igor A. Istomin is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Issues at MGIMO University. He holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees from MGIMO University as well as an undergraduate degree from Saint Petersburg State University. Istomin teaches undergraduate and graduate classes in methods of applied analysis of international affairs. He is an executive editor at International Trends, a leading Russian academic journal. He is also a visiting fellow at the School of International and Public Affairs at Jilin University in China. Istomin is the author of more than 50 publications on U.S. foreign policy, relations in the Euro-Atlantic space, and international security. His most recent book is The Logic of State Behavior in International Politics (2017). He has also prepared policy reports and papers for the Russian International Affairs Council, the Valdai Discussion Club, the Center for Strategic Research in Moscow, and the European Leadership Network.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

470. Building Trust and Confidence in International Security: A Conversation with OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger

Author:: Thomas Greminger and Ryan Rogers
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Ambassador Thomas Greminger was appointed Secretary General of the OSCE on 18 July 2017 for a three- year term. Ambassador Greminger joined the diplomatic service of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) in 1990 and has held numerous senior management positions during his career. Prior to his appoint- ment as OSCE Secretary General, he was Deputy Director General of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, overseeing an annual budget of USD 730 million and 900 staff in Bern and abroad. From 2010 to 2015, Greminger was the Permanent Representative of Switzerland to the OSCE, serving as Chair of the Permanent Council during Switzerland’s 2014 OSCE Chairmanship. Prior to his assignment at the Per- manent Delegation of Switzerland to the OSCE, Greminger was Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affair’s Human Security Division, Switzerland’s competence centre for peace, human rights, and humanitarian and migration policy. Thomas Greminger holds a PhD in history from the University of Zurich and the rank of Lieutenant Colonel (General Staff) in the Swiss Armed Forces. He has authored a number of publications on military history, conflict management, peacekeeping, development and human rights. His mother tongue is German; he speaks fluent English and French, and has a working knowledge of Portuguese. In 2012, he was awarded the OSCE white ribbon for his long-standing support for gender equality.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and European Union

471. The Future of Strategic Intelligence

Author:: Robert Hutchings
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: We begin with a puzzle: the need for strategic analysis is more important than ever in this period of great flux and uncertainty, but the disdain for analysis of any kind has never been greater than under the administration of President Donald J. Trump. The very premise that leaders need reasonably objective intelligence analysis to inform their policy decisions – a premise that has guided every U.S. administration since World War II – is under assault. If we are to rebuild our capacity for strategic thinking, we need to go back to the beginning. When President Harry Truman created the strategic intelligence function at the end of World War II, he understood that the United States had been thrust into a global role for which it was not prepared. The world was simply too complex, and American interests too extensive, to operate on the basis of impulse or ad hoc decision making. Moreover, when Truman issued National Intelligence Authority No. 5 on July 8, 1946, instructing the Director of Central Intelligence to “accomplish the evaluation and dissemination of strategic intelligence,” he deliberately set up this function outside of the White House, the Department of State, and the military, so that strategic analysis would be kept at a critical distance from policy making. Yet Truman, like every president since, was ambivalent about the role of strategic intelligence and the degree of autonomy it ought to have. The story actually begins earlier, when President Franklin Roosevelt, in a military order of June 13, 1942, formally established the Office of Strategic Services with William J. “Wild Bill” Donovan at its head, and directed it to “collect and analyze... strategic information” and to “plan and operate special services.” The cloak- and-dagger wartime operations of the OSS are the stuff of legend, as are the notable figures recruited to serve, including the poets Archibald MacLeish and Stephen Vincent Benét, the banker Paul Mellon, the psychologist Carl Jung, the philosopher Herbert Marcuse, the anthropologist Margaret Mead, and the movie director John Ford. Less well known is its role in strategic intelligence analysis through its Research and Analysis (R&A) Branch, led initially by James Phinney Baxter III, president of Williams College, and after 1943 by Harvard historian William Langer, identified in war correspondence as “OSS 117.”
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, History, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

472. Historical Trajectory of the U.S.-Russia Relationship: Perception and Misperception: A Conversation with Professor Tatiana Shakleina

Author:: Tatiana Shakleina and Ryan Rogers
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Professor Tatiana Shakleina sat down with the Fletcher Security Review in November 2017 in conjunction with the Conference on U.S.-Russia Relations between The Fletcher School and Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). In a detailed and engaging conversation that spanned over 25 years of history, Professor Shakleina traced the post-Cold War origins of the current tension between the United States and Russia. While personnel within the Trump Administration have moved on to new positions or left government altogether since the interview, Professor Shakleina’s rich historical overview of post-Cold War U.S.-Russia relations remains extremely relevant in understanding the recent trajectory and current state of the bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, Government, History, Bilateral Relations, and Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

473. Looking Inward to Improve National Security: A Conversation with Former Congressman Christopher Gibson

Author:: Christopher Gibson
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Chris Gibson is a former Republican Congressman from upstate New York, and is currently the Stanley Kaplan Distinguished Visiting Professor of American Foreign Policy at Williams College. Prior to his congressional service, Mr. Gibson had a 24-year career as an Army officer before retiring as a Colonel. His services included tours in the First Gulf War, the Balkans, multiple combat tours in Iraq and a humanitarian tour to Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. His new book Rally Point addresses the current divisions within U.S. politics and the risks we face if they continue to inhibit the U.S. government from fulfilling its necessary functions.
Topic:: Security, Government, National Security, and Interview
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

474. The Ghost: The Secret Life of CIA Spymaster James Jesus Angleton by Jefferson Morley

Author:: Jefferson Morley and Brian O'Keefe
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In his new biography The Ghost: The Secret Life of CIA Spymaster James Jesus Angleton, veteran journalist Jefferson Morley probes an enigma others have chronicled but none satisfactorily explained. Angleton, “a founding father of U.S. mass-surveillance policies,” joined the Agency’s predecessor, the OSS, in its early years and reigned as chief of its Counterintelligence Staff for an extraordinary two decades until his abrupt retirement in 1974.[1] His personal mystique and complicated tenure have given rise to a small but formidable contingent of biographies, novels, and film characters. What Morley adds to the intrigue is a refusal to be seduced by the beguiling charm of his subject, preferring instead to deliberately scrutinize Angleton’s expansive power, ideological intransigence, and lasting influence. Morley’s timeline spans Angleton’s career, though he peppers his narrative with nods to formative experiences at Yale, post-CIA pursuits, and family affairs. The story unfolds chronologically through four tersely titled and equally distributed sections (Poetry, Power, Impunity, Legend), each of which is further demarcated under a dozen or more pithy subheadings (Mole, Oswald, Kim...). Readers might experience the rhythm as too serial for the genre, and while the chronological method is helpful in charting Angleton’s ascent, Morley rarely lingers long enough with a scene to breathe life into its cast. Save a few animated vignettes, the reader is less a participant in the sensory and internal worlds of Morley’s subjects than a recipient of his detective digging, sundry sources, and interpretive reflections...
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, History, Book Review, and Surveillance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

475. Energy Security in Armenia and the South Caucasus

Author:: Ursula Kazarian
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The independent development of renewable energy resources — and especially solar energy production, in the short term — may present the best opportunity for both intrastate and interstate autonomy in the South Caucasus, and may particularly benefit the Republic of Armenia, whose current energy portfolio is almost entirely supplied, owned, and, until recently, operated by Russia.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

476. Energy and Security in Mexico: The Real Winners of a Drug War

Author:: Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The rapid growth of organized crime in Mexico and the government’s response have driven an unprecedented rise in violence and impelled major structural economic changes, including the recent passage of energy reform. My latest book entitled Los Zetas Inc. asserts that these phenomena are a direct and intended result of the emergence of the brutal Zetas criminal organization and the corporate business model they have advanced in Mexico. Because the Zetas share some characteristics with legal transnational businesses that operate in the energy and private security industries, the criminal corporation is compared in the book with ExxonMobil, Halliburton, and Blackwater (renamed “Academi” and now a Constellis company). Combining vivid interview commentary with in-depth analysis of organized crime as a transnational and corporate phenomenon, I propose a new theoretical framework for understanding the emerging face, new structure, and economic implications of organized crime in Mexico. Arguing that the armed conflict between criminal corporations (like the Zetas) and the Mexican state resembles a civil war, I identify the key winners and losers of this episode in Mexico’s most recent history. The groups that seem to have benefited — or will potentially benefit — the most (directly or indirectly) from the novel criminal scheme introduced by the Zetas, the Mexican government’s reaction to it, and the resulting brutality appear to be corporate actors in the energy sector, transnational financial companies, private security firms (including private prison companies), and the United States border-security/military-industrial complex.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Energy Policy, and Drugs
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

477. U.S.-Russia Relations: Energy Security & Beyond: A Conversation with Dr. Celeste Wallander

Author:: Ishan Khokar and Celeste Wallander
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Celeste Wallander is President and CEO of the U.S.-Russia Foundation. She served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia/Eurasia on the National Security Council (2013-2017), as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia (2009 to July 2012), professor at American University (2009-2013), visiting professor at Georgetown University (2006-2008), Director for Russia/Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (2001-2006), Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (2000- 2001), and professor of Government at Harvard (1989-2000). She is the author of over 80 publications on European and Eurasian security issues, focused on Russian foreign and defense strategy. She received her Ph.D. (1990), M.Phil. (1986) and M.A. (1985) degrees from Yale University. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Atlantic Council of the United States, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Interview
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

478. Human Trafficking and Climate Change: Understanding the Disastrous Relationship

Author:: Alice C. Hill
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Human trafficking is a horrendous crime: it degrades human security and undermines the rights of people around the globe. Although the exact number of victims worldwide remains elusive, the extent of human trafficking stands to increase in coming years for several reasons, including the accelerating rate of climate change. A warming world will almost certainly bring more disasters that result in greater displacement of people from their homes and livelihoods. This, in turn, puts them at greater risk of trafficking. Human trafficking is a highly lucrative crime, with few perpetrators successfully prosecuted and transnational criminal and terrorist groups repeatedly using it as a source of revenue. These factors, in combination with worsening climate change impacts will, in all likelihood, yield ever more human trafficking victims. At its core, human trafficking involves forcing another against his or her will to work, perform sex acts, or succumb to debt bondage. Despite its name, the crime does not necessarily involve movement: the key element is coercion. Over 170 nations have signaled their opposition to human trafficking by joining the United Nations Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, and virtually all countries have registered official opposition to trafficking in humans. Despite these pronouncements, human trafficking occurs with staggering frequency. While precise estimates of the number of persons trafficked are difficult to obtain, the U.S. Department of State speculated in its 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report that there may be “tens of millions” of victims worldwide.[1] Other international organizations “estimate that about 25 million people are victims” of human trafficking in the world.[2] In all likelihood, those numbers will grow due in part to the increasing effects of climate change...
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Crime, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

479. Outlook: Chechnya and Terrorism, Putin and Kadyrov: A Conversation with Julie Wilhelmsen

Author:: Julie Wilhelmsen and Maia Brown-Jackson
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Julie Wilhelmsen is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. She conducts research in the fields of critical security studies, Russian foreign and security policies and the radicalization of Islam in Eurasia. Wilhelmsen has also written about convergence in Russian and Chinese interests in Central Asia and about Russian approaches to the fight against terrorism. She holds a master’s degree in post-Soviet and Russian studies from the London School of Economics and holds a PhD in Political Science at the University of Oslo.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Soviet Union, and Chechnya

480. Understanding Myanmar: History and Current Perspectives: A Conversation with Derek Mitchell

Author:: Derek Mitchell and Maia Brown-Jackson
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Derek Mitchell is senior advisor to the Asia Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Ambassador Mitchell was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on June 29, 2012, as the first U.S. ambassador to the Republic of the Union of Myanmar in 22 years. He took up his post in July 2012, and departed March 2016. Ambassador Mitchell has authored numerous books, articles, and opinion pieces on Asian security affairs. He received an M.A. in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a B.A. from the University of Virginia.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

481. Intersectionality of Conflict in Africa The African Union’s Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) Mechanism

Author:: Frederic Gateretse-Ngoga
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Over the years the African continent has made significant strides in ensuring its voice is heard on the global scene. Despite this progress, Africa is still not perceived as a credible business partner. Although Africa has experienced significant economic growth, it is still considered “jobless” growth. A “youth bulge” is also appearing across the continent, which can be both an asset and a ticking time bomb. Overall, Africa continues to witness diverse threats to its peace and security, ranging from communal, ethno-religious, and pastoralist conflicts to violent extremism, and most recently, the increasing impacts of climate change. Combined, these threats have claimed an enormous number of lives and properties, displaced millions, and destroyed sources of livelihoods all while stunting socio-economic progress. It is critical for the African Union (AU) and its member states to collectively address the root causes and to understand the multidimensionality of security in Africa to avoid further bloodshed. Understanding what breeds instability is essential in preventing the outbreak of violence and conflict. Instability is often caused by four main factors: power contestation, lack of inclusivity, unequal distribution of resources, and impunity. If these root causes are not addressed in a timely manner, instability is inevitable. Over the years, several strategies have been employed at national, regional, and continental levels to address conflicts. We are perplexed by the dynamics of the existing threats, as well as the patterns of the emerging threats. Assessments reveal an increasing inter-relatedness of the existing and emerging threats and predict their escalation if they are not adequately addressed in a timely manner. More often than not, the signs of potential violent conflicts exist, but the corresponding responses are relatively weak or late. This trend has compelled world leaders to advocate for prevention at the earliest stage given the enormous humanitarian, psychological, and socio-economic costs of violence. As such, the imperatives of matching early warning with early response to prevent and or mitigate violent conflicts cannot be overemphasized. However, these strategies should not be implemented separately or haphazardly, but in concerted and coordinated manners to ensure tangible impacts...
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and African Union

482. Identity and Conflict, Permanent Deconfliction or Eventual Reset? A Conversation with U.S. Army Colonel Robert E. Hamilton

Author:: Robert Hamilton
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: U.S. Army Colonel Robert E. Hamilton is a Black Sea Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and is a professor in the Department of National Security and Strategy at the U.S. Army War College. He has served as a strategic war planner and country desk officer at U.S. Central Command, as the Chief of Regional Engage- ment for Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan, and as the Chief of the Office of Defense Cooperation at the U.S. Embassy in Georgia and as the Deputy Chief of the Security Assistance Office at the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan. Colonel Hamilton was a U.S. Army War College fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, where he authored several articles on the war between Russia and Georgia and the security situation in the former Soviet Union. Colonel Hamilton holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia. Colonel Robert Hamilton spoke with The Fletcher Security Review in early November 2017 at Fletcher’s Religion, Law and Diplomacy Conference. The following conversation is an excerpt from their extensive interview.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Syrian War, Identities, and Interview
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

483. Where Are We Now? Important U.S.-Russia Geo-Strategic Flashpoints: A Conversation with Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas

Author:: Evelyn Farkas and Ryan Rogers
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a national security analyst for NBC/MSNBC. She served from 2012 to 2015 as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia/Ukraine/ Eurasia, responsible for policy toward Russia, the Black Sea, Balkans, and Caucasus regions and conventional arms control. From 2010 to 2012 she served as senior adviser to the supreme allied commander Europe and special adviser to the secretary of defense for the NATO Summit. Prior to that, she was a senior fellow at the American Security Project, and executive director of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism. From April 2001 to April 2008, she served as a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Asia Pacific, Western Hemisphere, Special Operations Command, peace and stability operations, combatting terrorism, counternarcotics, homeland defense, and export control policy. Dr. Farkas obtained her MA and PhD from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a member of the board of trustees of Franklin & Marshall College and Aspen Institute Socrates Seminar, and Harold Rosenthal Fellowship advisory boards. She has received several Department of Defense and foreign awards and an honorary doctorate from Franklin & Marshall College. In January 2018, Dr. Farkas discussed a range of issues concerning Russia and the post-Soviet space with the Fletcher Security Review. The conversation took place in the run-up to the March 2018 presidential elections in Moscow and before President Putin’s highly publicized Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, in which he unveiled a number of new nuclear weapon systems currently under development by the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Syria, North America, and United States of America

484. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 10, Issue 03: Emergence of Post-‘Islamic State’ (IS) Threat Environment

Author:: C. Nna-Emeka Okereke, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff, and Abdul Basit
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The continuing terrorist attacks in the West and different parts of Asia and Africa underscore the resilience, adaptability and regenerative nature of the prevailing global terrorist threat. With these attacks, the contours of the post-IS threat environment are now becoming increasing clear. It entails four major issues: a decentralised threat landscape, the challenge of returning foreign fighters from Iraq and Syria, the emergence of new IS hotspots in the Philippines, Afghanistan and parts of Africa, and cyber radicalisation. This requires continued vigilance, collaborative responses and sharing of best practices between security institutions and intelligentsia. In the context of continuing terrorist threat, the massacre of over 500 civilians in Eastern Ghouta in Syria by the Bashar Al-Assad regime is concerning for several reasons. The brutal use of violence will continue to fuel jihadist recruitment, strengthen the extremist narrative and create space for IS-linked and other militant groups to survive. Whether it is Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan, the absence of conflict stabilisation has undermined counter-terrorism efforts in these war-torn territories. The imagery of civilian killings in Ghouta plays right into the hands of groups like Al-Qaeda and IS as these groups continue to be the by-products of anarchy and lawlessness in active conflict zones. Against this backdrop, the first article by Abdul Basit explores the urban footprint of pro-IS jihadists in South Asia. The author observes that the dissemination of IS ideology of Jihadi-Takfiri-Salafism has galvanised a new generation of South Asia jihadists, which is narrowly sectarian, brutally violent and tech savvy. This pro-IS generation of jihadists uses various social media platforms for propaganda dissemination, recruitment and operational planning. In recent months, they have moved from open-end to encrypted social media applications. This development coupled with their segregated cell-formations makes their detection challenging. In conclusion, the author suggests that in addition to robust social media monitoring capabilities and operational preparedness, various South Asia governments would also require robust counter-ideological responses to overcome and neutralise IS appeal in this generation of South Asia jihadists. Highlighting the threat from social media, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff examines the trajectory of online radicalisation of a young Filipino girl, whose quest to atone herself from a ‘sinful’ past life exposed her to IS-recruiters online. The recruiters encouraged her to undertake the so-called ‘hijra’, after which she emerged as the head of IS’ female wing in Marawi (Mindanao, Phillipines). Syed highlights the need for a proactive approach by the governments and mainstream Islamic scholars to impart correct interpretations of key Islamic concepts such as jihad, caliphate, hijra and takfir to Muslim youth. It is argued that these efforts will circumvent the exploitation of these concepts by violent-extremist groups. Departing from the discussion on Islamist terrorist groups, this issue carries an article by C. Nna-Emeka Okereke focusing on the dynamics of the current indigenous Anglophone (English-speaking population) crisis in Cameroon and the escalating violence between the community in the northwest and southwest and the government. The Anglophone community is resentful towards what is perceived to be their marginalisation and the erosion of their unique identity as a result of various government actions relating to issues such as the creation of a centralised state from a two-state federation, and status of the English language. A segment of the Anglophone community has resorted to violence to address its grievances, conducting arson attacks and bombings targeting schools, government and security personnel. The instability has resulted in the displacement of thousands of refugees into Nigeria and poses security challenges to the country as it goes into the Presidential elections, and to the entire Lake Chad Basin.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Philippines, North Africa, Syria, and Asia-Pacific

485. Navy Classification: Proposal for a Comparative Methodology

Author:: Francisco Eduardo Alves de Almeida and Ricardo Pereira Cabral
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Classification of navies according to their relative power has been a challenge for the academic area that works with issues in the field of Security and Defense. Qualitative ratings have been presented by renowned researchers such as Colin Gray, Hervé Coutau-Begarie and Michael Morris, however these attempts have stumbled in its simplicity and little scope. From studies based on open access sources, this paper tries to develop a comparative methodology that would not only take into account qualitative but also quantitative factors. This innovative method was used to classify the navy of the different states in a ranking of power taking into account parameters such as the number of means, shipbuilding capacity, number of bases and arsenals, naval assets and availability of resources, among others, in order to rank naval powers. This methodology aims to reduce uncertainties in the classification of navies and serve as a reference for future works in the academic area that are dedicated to the fields of Security and Defense.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Maritime, and Classification
Political Geography:: Global Focus

486. Military Expenditures and the Armed Forces Actions in South America: An Appreciation About the Regional Defense Convergence

Author:: Graciela De Conti Pagliari
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: It is investigated the approximation in defense and security in South America. The hypothesis tested considers that these countries just tend an approximation whereby the costs are less linked to a changing in their individual policies. In this way, they propose just a superficial consensus rather than incorporate joint policies. Therefore, the analysis focuses on the confidence measures in relation to the military expenditures adopted since the SADC foundation, as well as the military forces functions to verify if – in that instance – the measures served to empower the convergences in defense, and – in the case of these – if, in the face of the highlighted common defense problems, the attributions have converged.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Spending
Political Geography:: South America

487. Regional Cooperation in Public Security: Assessment of UNASUR's Normative Framework

Author:: Juliana Viggiano
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This paper considers the normative framework that support regional cooperative practices in public security based on the activities carried out by UNASUR’s South American Council on Citizen Security, Justice and Coordination of Actions against Transnational Organized Crime. The article discusses differences and similarities between the conceptions of cooperation and public policies, analyzes the documents produced within the Council and presents limitations, obstacles and opportunities identified from the reading of these documents with regard to regional cooperation in public security.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: South America

488. Armament Modernization in South America: Empirical and Theoretical Pressures on the Dualistic Views of Regional Security

Author:: Rafael Duarte Villa
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Research that focuses on security systems in South America usually identifies the existence of two regional security subsystems: one in the Andean countries of the North, with more traditional characteristics such as militarized tensions at the borders and intense drug trafficking problems; and a second one located in the Southern Cone, with security and integration regimes, which could qualify as a security community. This is what we call a dualistic view of security. This paper challenges this thesis to show that contemporary developments and concerns about the purchase of sophisticated weaponry by some South American countries, especially Chile, Venezuela, and Brazil in the first two decades of this century are critical points for the idea of a permanent (democratic) peace zone located only in the Southern Cone. In fact, arms purchases transform the South American region into a single regional security complex with tensions and militarized representations in both the Andean system and the Southern Cone.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Venezuela, and Chile

489. Peace Missions and Civil-Military Relations: Reflections on the Brazilian Case

Author:: Adriana A. Marques
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The article discusses the interconnections between the participation of the Brazilian military in peace missions and civil-military relations in the country. For its elaboration a bibliographical revision and the collection of primary sources, like governmental documents, articles published in newspapers and magazines and interviews were realized. It is concluded that, instead of contributing to the improvement of the articulation between foreign policy and defense policy, the Brazilian participation in peace operations has been instrumentalised by the political class and indirectly contributing to the militarization of public security and the policialization of the armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Peace, Civilians, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

490. Subnational Experiences in the Defense Industry Promotion Policies: The Case of Rio Grande Do Sul

Author:: Christiano Cruz Ambrosias
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article has as its main objective to present initiatives of the Government of the State of Rio Grande do Sul for the promotion of the defense industry of Rio Grande do Sul in recent years. Subnational entities have an important role to play in strengthening the national defense industry and, through the formulation and implementation of well-defined public policies, are able to act as facilitators and catalysts for national initiatives at the local level. This article seeks to bring examples that demonstrate the various public policies that can be implemented by subnational entities in developed countries (Australia, Canada and France) and developing countries (South Africa, India and Mexico), comparing them with what has been done in the Brazilian case.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Nationalism, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Canada, India, France, South Africa, Australia, and Mexico

491. Pakistan’s Search for Security through Reliable Balance of Power and Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Hassan Masood
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: At the time of independence Pakistan faced severe insecurity emanating from a fractured geography, non-existent constitutional framework, weak economy, and military capability in the face of an overwhelmingly powerful and hostile India. The paper explores Pakistan’s efforts for establishing a reliable balance of power with India first by joining the collective security later supplementing it by joining alliances. It argues that the secession of East Pakistan was the turning point establishing the unreliability of the erstwhile basis of balance of power, leading Pakistan to the development of nuclear weapons as a reliable basis for a Pakistan-India balance of power while retaining the earlier two bases.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

492. Rise of Extremism and Growing Threats of Transnational Terrorism

Author:: Murad Ali and Reema Murad
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Extremism, though not a new phenomenon, has undergone complete metamorphosis in the South Asian context. While in Sri Lanka, the discriminatory policy of ruling Sinhalese towards Tamil minority was reason of latter’s taking up arms to assert their identity, India is inflicting war on the assertive Kashmiris who are struggling for the recognition of their right of self-determination. At the same time, the ultra-right government of the BJP is encouraging religious extremism. With his baggage of Gujarat pogrom, Prime Minister Modi is treading a dangerous path of fanning Hindu nationalism. Afghanistan was subjected to the communist elements under the Babrak Karmal regime which had the backing of the Soviet Union and the traditional Afghan society was not receptive to the foreign ideology. People stood up against the direct Soviet intervention which they took as heretic. They were supported in their armed struggle by the US and Pakistan. As Soviets withdrew ignominiously from Afghanistan, the warlords went into civil war to assert themselves which created a vacuum filled by the Taliban. The US attacked Afghanistan to remove Taliban who were thought to have be harbouring the perpetrators of September 11, 2001 attack. The Kabul government however couldn’t win the confidence of the people and Taliban resurgence has cost the country dearly with ramifications for Pakistan. The element of extremism and violence was introduced in Pakistan was in Afghanistan after the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 and got different and colossal dimensions post September 11, 2001 tragedy. In Pakistan, the Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan were formed after the Lal Masjid operation. There is hardly any parallel in history to match the devastating terrorist rampages costing huge loss of life and property. Unfortunately, the neighbouring India is fishing in the troubled waters to achieve some petty gains. While Afghanistan has its own circumstances and hence its responses to end the imbroglio, Pakistan has a long way to go end the menace of extremism as well as terrorism, of course in conjunction with Afghanistan, without which peace cannot return to the region.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Sri Lanka

493. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Superpowers

Author:: Ed Erickson, Christian H. Heller, T. J. Linzy, Mallory Needleman, Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, Keith D. Dickson, Jamie Shea, Ivan Falasca, Steven A. Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: There are a variety of reasons to study geopolitical rivalries, and analysts, officers, and politicians are rediscovering such reasons amid the tensions of the last several years. The best reason to study geopolitical rivalries is the simplest: our need to better understand how power works globally. Power not only recurs in human and state affairs but it is also at their very core. Today’s new lexicon—superpower, hyperpower, and great power—is only another reminder of the reality of the various ways that power manifests itself. Power protects and preserves, but a polity without it may be lost within mere decades. Keith D. Dickson’s article in this issue of MCU Journal, “The Challenge of the Sole Superpower in the Postmodern World Order,” illuminates how fuzzy some readers may be in their understanding of this problem; his article on postmodernism calls us to the labor of understanding and reasoning through the hard realities. Ed Erickson’s survey of modern power is replete with cases in which a grand state simply fell, as from a pedestal in a crash upon a stone floor. Modern Japan, always richly talented, rose suddenly as a world actor in the late nineteenth century, but the Japanese Empire fell much more quickly in the mid-twentieth century. A state’s power—or lack thereof—is an unforgiving reality. This issue of MCU Journal, with its focus on rivalries and competition between states, is refreshingly broad in its selection of factors—from competing for or generating power. Dr. Erickson recalls that Alfred Thayer Mahan settled on six conditions for sea power, all still vital. Other authors writing for this issue emphasize, by turns, sea power (Steven Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus); cyberpower (Jamie Shea); alliances (T. J. Linzy and Ivan Falasca); information (Dickson); and proxies (Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, and others).
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Islam, Terrorism, War, History, Power Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Seapower, Cities, Ottoman Empire, Hybrid Warfare, Cyberspace, Soviet Union, and Safavid Empire
Political Geography:: Britain, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Lithuania, Georgia, North Africa, Syria, North America, and United States of America

494. Round Table I – Regional Security

Author:: Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: I am delighted to be in Warsaw on this panel. In 1994 when I graduated with a PhD, and held my first academic post, the first international conference I went to was in Wrocław, and obviously I had to travel through Warsaw. So, it’s really nice to be back in Poland and have the opportunity to present in the capital when older and wiser. Today, I am going to try and look at how we understand the rationality, the logic of Russia’s foreign policy, particularly the destabilization efforts against neighbours and come to a conclusion has to how sustainable and long-term this approach will be. Will it gradually diminish or is it set to stay as it is or even increase? To try and understand Russia’s foreign policy, we need to look into the domestic eco- nomic, political, and social system created by a system-forming figure that is President Vladimir Putin. The two key data points here really are two strategic vulnerabilities that Russia has to deal with. The first is the hydrocarbon dependence, 50% of GDP and 70% of exports, and 98% of corporate tax. The vulnerability is that Russia is dependent on hy- drocarbon revenues but cannot affect the price of oil globally (which sets the price of gas). Oil can be priced at $110pb or at $25pb and the shift can take place over a matter of months. The second vulnerability is the popularity of the president. When Putin has de-modernized Russia, de-institutionalized and de-globalized Russia it means that if his popularity decreases then you have an existential crisis within the federation. The destabi- lizing question is: “If not Putin, then whom?” There are no contingency plans, no succession mechanism to replace the leader. So, essentially we are looking at Russia’s foreign policy operating in a context where the economy is in the toilet as reflected in a 0.2% average GDP growth since 2009; 2012 – 0% growth and since 2012 when Kudrin resigned from the government. Normally, the popularity of a president – as was the case in the first 8 years of Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 – tracks the economy, or maybe lags a little bit behind. As economic performance increases and revenues distributed to the population, so the popularity of the president. So, this is very abnormal politics.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

495. Change of the Security Environment in the Transatlantic Region and its Impact on the Evolution of Foreign and Security Policy of the State

Author:: Valeriy Kravchenko
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: The analysis report includes research of the main trends and their components of relevant change in the European security environment; considers political steps of the main international actors within the sphere of the security architecture of the region. The author de- scribes the possibilities of enhancing a regional cooperation, an implementation of multilateral initiatives in the context of modern security challenges. The report reviews the effect of these changes on the defense policy of Ukraine, suggests and substantiates appropriate recommen- dations for Ukrainian public authorities on the need for more active involvement in the forma- tion of the new sub-regional security system.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

496. Round Table I – Regional Security

Author:: Matthew Rhodes
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: I will try to talk about a little bit about what NATO in particular as a core part of this community has been doing to respond. A starting point is to recognize that this confer- ence is taking place at almost exactly the one year anniversary of NATO’s summit here in Warsaw. I had an opportunity to participate during this summit at the parallel Warsaw Summit Experts Forum that was organized by NATO together with the Polish Institute of International Affairs here in Warsaw. While the adults were meeting in the Warsaw National Stadium about 300 other professors and experts such as myself were meeting in a circus tent across the parking lot. Sometimes this felt a little bit silly but it was very interesting to hear firsthand from many of the people attending the main summit and one of the open- ing speakers there was President Duda. One thing that stuck with me was his remark that for him this summit was the second most important thing that had happened for Poland since the end of the Cold War and the only thing that topped it was Poland’s entry to NATO itself, so for him this was really a big deal. What I will try to do in my time is to talk a little bit about why the Warsaw Summit was so important for President Duda and other leaders of the alliance, and try to reflect on where we are a year after that summit and what remains to be done for NATO to respond to the Russian threat especially of hybrid warfare.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and North America

497. Crime, citizenship and race: Latin American dilemmas in security doctrine

Author:: José Oviedo Pérez
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: Latin America (LA) over the past century has experienced a period of relative interstate peace, free from the bloody wars typically seen in other global regions, such as Europe (CENTENO, 2002; MARES, 2001). The region, however, is also the most violent and unsafe in the world. Los Cabos, Mexico, the deadliest city in the world in 2017, boasts about 111.33 deaths per every 100,000 residents (SEGURIDAD, JUSTICIA Y PAZ, 2018: 3), making many of the region’s urban areas resemble combat zones. This paradoxically results in LA having what some scholars term a “violent” or “hybrid” peace (BATTAGLIO, 2012; MARES, 2001). This article discusses and analyses the historical trajectory that contributed to this development, specifically analyzing post-Cold War security doctrine in the region through a racial lens. Using historical process-tracing and a review of previous academic literature, we describe how the constitution of national identities, as well as state articulations of “citizenship” and “crime,” has resulted in a specific way of viewing and treating afro-descend-ent people across LA. This process has also contributed to the current security crisis across the hemisphere.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Race, Citizenship, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Latin America

498. Japan’s new assertiveness: institutional change and Japan’s securitization of China

Author:: Kai Schulze
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: In recent years, Japan's foreign policy elite has started to increasingly securitize China in their security discourse. The harsher tone from Tokyo is widely evaluated as a direct reaction to China’s own assertive behavior since 2009/2010. Yet, the change in the Japanese government’s rhetoric had started changing before 2010. In order to close this gap, the present article sheds light on an alternative causal variable that has been overlooked in the literature: a change in Japan’s security institutions, more specifically, the upgrade of the Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense, in 2007. While utilizing discursive institutionalism and securitization-approaches, the present article demonstrates that a strong correlation indeed exists between the institutional shift and the change in Japan’s defense whitepapers in the 2007–10 period. It thus opens up a research avenue for the further scrutiny of the hitherto understudied but significant causal linkage in the study of contemporary Japanese security policy toward China
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

499. Detecting patterns in North Korean military provocations: what machine-learning tells us

Author:: Taehee Whang, Michael Lammbrau, and Hyung-min Joo
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: For the past two decades, North Korea has made a series of military provocations, destabilizing the regional security of East Asia. In particular, Pyongyang has launched several conventional attacks on South Korea. Although these attacks seem unpredictable and random, we attempt in this article to find some patterns in North Korean provocations. To this end, we employ a machine-learning technique to analyze news articles of the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) from 1997 to 2013. Based on five key words (‘years,’ ‘signed,’ ‘assembly,’ ‘June,’ and ‘Japanese’), our model identifies North Korean provocations with 82% accuracy. Further investigation into these attack words and the contexts in which they appear produces significant insights into the ways in which we can detect North Korean provocations.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Asia-Pacific

500. Britain’s Post-Colonial Foreign Policy Towards the Persian Gulf Security (1971-1991): An Alternative Approach

Author:: Esra Cavusoglu
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf in 1971, started a new era in the region with new political order and new security map. Iran and Saudi Arabia emerged as the guardians of the status quo to be filling the power vacuum left by the British in behalf of the West. Britain adopted a new post-imperial role in the region along with new post-colonial foreign policy in the post-withdrawal context. British policy towards the regional security is analysed in this article with central focus on the shift emerged in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution in the British policy. After 1979, Iran, no longer a Western ally, has been defined as the major internal threat for the regional security following the major external threat of the Soviet expansion in the British foreign policy. This paper argues that the shift in the British policy came along with a sectarianist approach towards the region. The sectarianization emerged with the securitization of the Gulf based on “Iran threat” within the determinants of the Anglo-American alliance on the regional security. The sectarianist discourse adopted by the British foreign policy was employed as an effective tool of the securitization of the Gulf that was deepened during the regional conflicts, the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Persian Gulf

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
…
12
13

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS