Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: and within 25 Years / Topic: Security

1. Understanding EU-NATO Cooperation: How Member States Matter

Author:: Pınar Atakara
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: “Understanding EU-NATO Cooperation: How Member States Matter” by Nele Marianne Ewers-Peters conducts a distinctly member-state based theoretical examination of interorganizational cooperation between the EU and NATO. Ewers-Peters mainly intends to demonstrate member states’ foreign/security policy orientations, roles and positions affecting the functionality and dys-functionality of Euro-Atlantic security, between the period of the end of the Cold War and 2021. The book is composed of seven chapters including conclusion and implications. By providing 28 face-to-face semi-structured interviews carried out in Berlin and Brussels between February 2017 and February 2018, with different member states’ representatives (see Appendix A.), as well as document analysis of primary and secondary sources, the book relies on well-designed qualitative research.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

2. Vernacular Border Security: Citizens’ Narratives of Europe’s ‘Migration Crisis’

Author:: Muhammed Onur Çöpoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: After the waters of the Mediterranean Sea washed the dead body of Alan Kurdi ashore in 2015, issues of migration, border security, and European Union (EU) migration policy gained more widespread interest. Although many scholars deal with the issue from different angles by focusing on the roles of different ‘agents’ and their roles in the politics of the EU’s 2015 ‘migration crisis’, Vernacular Border Security: Citizens’ Narratives of Europe’s ‘Migration Crisis’ argues that there is no comprehensive study analyzing the EU citizens itself (p. 4). Problematizing the passive recipient role given to the EU citizens, Nick Vaughan-Williams critically intervenes, problematizing contemporary scholarship’s “propensity to speak for, rather than to (or, perhaps better, with) ‘ordinary people’…”.1 Asking “[w]hy is it that the intensification of EU border security appears to have heightened rather than diminished border anxieties among EU citizens?” (p. 3), Vaughan- Williams highlights a theoretical and methodological shift in studying border security, one that juxtaposes ‘top-down’ elite narratives of border security with ‘bottom-up’ investigations of ordinary EU citizens’ knowledge on the issue. Chapter 1 justifies this unique theoretical shift, namely the ‘vernacular turn’ in critical security studies. Connecting elite and vernacular narratives becomes a must if we are to transcend dominant securitizing narratives of migration and see alternative ways of ‘living with’ strangers (p. 3-4). Forming such a connection allows us to understand better the interconnected relationship between the macro-level of national border security and border anxieties at the micro-level of citizens. And, in the final analysis, it is important to see how these elite narratives are both reproduced and contested locally in citizens’ everyday lives. Chapter 1 also contributes to vernacular security studies by conceptualizing ‘vernacular narratives’, which has been absent so far in the theoretical discussion (p.12).
Topic:: Security, Migration, Refugee Crisis, Book Review, Borders, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Europe

3. Russia, Ukraine, and Lasting Peace in Europe

Author:: Nicolai N. Petro
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Among the many competing narratives that drive the war in Ukraine, the healing of the Ukrainian people themselves is often overlooked. That is because current Western policy overlooks the Other Ukraine, whose disagreement with the policies of the Ukrainian government since 2014 led up to this conflict. The Western response to Russia’s invasion has been tailored to punishing Russia, but not necessarily to healing the domestic tension within Ukraine. This article suggests that only a reconciliation within Ukrainecan bring lasting social harmony to Ukraine and peace to Europe as a whole.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

4. From East to North: New Frontiers for the EU-NATO Arctic Defence

Author:: Luca Cinciripini
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: After a geopolitical phase of peace and international cooperation, the Arctic is witnessing renewed military tensions, particularly between Russia, NATO, and European Union (EU) member countries. The multilateral governance that has so far governed the fate of the Arctic is being challenged by the confrontation between Russia and the West. In addition, climate warming opens up new trade routes. It provides access to immense deposits of raw materials, accelerating competition among actors partly by including external players such as China. To assess the future trajectory of European defense governance on the northern flank, it is necessary to view the Arctic and Baltic as a single region in light of common critical factors.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

5. Concerns for Food Security in the Mediterranean and Turkiye

Author:: Gun Unal
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resumed after a hiatus of many months, it prompted the European Union and 17 other countries to cut off relations with Russia and Belarus. Most of the goods and food that people in the West use now come from foreign plantations and factories. The length of the war will significantly affect the extent to which it disrupts global food supplies and the intensity of the resulting food crisis. A symptom of this movement, and a warning against overreliance on Russian energy supplies, is the European Political Community. While the article’s focus is on the potential impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on food supplies throughout the world, it also serves to remind readers that there is more to a crisis than a shortage of Russian oil and gas.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

6. Why Romania is a NATO "Model Ally?"

Author:: Petre Roman
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s eastward expansion was a fundamental geopolitical process that allowed countries to be prepared for the worst, the Russian revanche, by pursuing the best, the most successful path for democracy. Romania, which emerged from the tremendous communist Ceausescu regime, strongly wanted NATO membership and, after the first encouraging meetings in 1990, officially entered in 2004. However, Romania has been already back then contributed to many Western missions. Due to its geographical position, Romania is central to all NATO objectives. Now, Romania and Poland are the pivots of NATO’s defensive complex in the “postsoviet space”: Poland protects the Baltic Sea, Romania the Black Sea, where the Russian old-imperial appetites remain; Romania still defends the precious grain corridor. Furthermore, Romania is a “model ally”. There is a solid pro-Atlantic and pro-American sentiment in the country.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Romania

7. Towards a Fuzzy World Order: What Role for NATO

Author:: Richard Higgott and Simon Reich
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Bi-polarity, multi-polarity, the end of globalization, or Cold War v. 2.0. New explanations of world order abound. Often, they are asserted rather than reasoned by pundits looking for their 15 minutes of fame. This paper is much more modest. It eschews grand statements about world order. Rather we demonstrate that the future is far less clear cut and predetermined. Yes, a global binary is emerging around U.S.-China competition, but it is what we describe as fuzzy bifurcation. If our analysis is accurate, then it affects the behavior of other actors differently than a tight bi-polar system. In this paper we look at the implications of a fuzzy bifurcation of world order for that most important of alliances – NATO.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8. Rebuilding "Greater Russia" and the Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Roger E Kanet
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: This article examines Vladimir Putin's commitment to rebuilding "Greater Russia" and its implications in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Putin's vision involves re-establishing the former Soviet Union and extending Russian dominance beyond its borders, fueled by a belief in the historical and cultural ties between Russians and Ukrainians. The article explores Russia's assertive and unilateralist approach to international politics, its military interventions in neighboring countries, and the justifications used to expand Moscow's control over former Soviet territories. Highlighting the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its devastating consequences, the author raises questions about Putin's long-term goals and whether they involve recreating "Greater Russia" or countering perceived threats from the West and neighboring states. The author contends that despite other factors that might play a role in influencing Russian policy, the re-establishment of Moscow’s influence/ control over as much post-Soviet territory as possible – the recreation of “Greater Russia” -- is the most important role – not NATO expansion, although it no doubt was an issue. If the Russians are successful in dominating Ukraine, other former Soviet areas – for example, the Baltics – are likely to become targets of future expansion.
Topic:: Security, Imperialism, Hegemony, Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9. Africa’s Quest for Reform of the United Nations Security Council: A Just Cause Curbed by Unrealistic Proposals

Author:: Niguse Mandefero Alene, Mohammed Seid Ali, and Kebede Yimam Tadesse
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The debate around viable global governance has become increasingly topical, particularly from the perspective of countries in the Global South. Concerning Africa, despite the continent’s quest to reform the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), existing research has failed to comprehensively address the topic. Consequently, this article explores the arguments and challenges surrounding Africa’s drive to secure a permanent voice in the UNSC. It argues that despite the enduring legacies of colonialism, neocolonial interventions, and being the primary concern of the UNSC agenda, Africa’s claim for fair representation in the Council remains. The article attempts to address the research gap and contribute to the existing debate by examining why Africa has failed to be represented in the UNSC. Africa’s collective initiative towards reforming the UN system is instrumental in ensuring inclusive and sustainable global governance. Nonetheless, Africa’s insistence on immediate and full veto power for new entrants and its demand for representation merely through numbers inside the UN are unfeasible.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Reform, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Africa

10. Washington Zeroes in on Manila

Author:: Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: With an apparent renaissance in the US-Philippine alliance, spurred by rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the Biden administration ramped up diplomatic activity with Manila as the two countries moved toward an official visit from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., in May. At the same time, the 42nd iteration of Cobra Gold, which returned to full strength for the first time since the 2014 coup in Bangkok, suggested momentum in the US-Thailand alliance, albeit with a lower profile. While the international environment continued to be roiled by US-China rivalry, the Russian war in Ukraine, and high food and commodity prices, Southeast Asia’s own internal turmoil was evident. The junta in Myanmar extended the state of emergency and stepped up aerial bombing of areas held by the opposition and armed ethnic groups. As Indonesia takes up the ASEAN chair, prospects for implementing the Five-Point Consensus Plan are dim, if not dead. Vietnam and Thailand began leadership transitions—Hanoi with an anti-corruption purge and Bangkok with the launch of general elections—while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen continued to eviscerate the opposition ahead of his near-certain re-election in July. As Southeast Asian leaders work to grow their economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, competition among them to attract foreign domestic investment is intensifying, particularly in technology and electric vehicles. In the meantime, the region awaits the conclusion of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which will offer insight into Washington’s vision of an economic order for the region.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

11. US-Korea Relations: Nuclear New Year

Author:: Mason Richey
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol has tried to make a priority of transforming the traditional US-South Korea military alliance into a “global, comprehensive strategic alliance” with increasing ambitions beyond hard security issues on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia in general. Yoon and his foreign policy team get an “A” for vision and effort—joining the NATO Asia-Pacific Four (AP4) and releasing an Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022 are evidence. But, like Michael Corleone trying to go legit in The Godfather III, every time they make progress getting out, they get pulled back into the Peninsula. To wit, during the first trimester of 2023 Korean Peninsula security issues again commanded disproportionate attention from Seoul and Washington. The proximate cause for this dynamic is North Korea’s mafioso-in-chief, Kim Jong Un, who started 2023 with a January 1 missile launch and kept at it throughout the winter. This, of course, followed record-breaking 2022 North Korean missile tests and demonstrations, which totaled approximately 70 launches of around 100 projectiles. Given the near-zero prospects for North Korean denuclearization and the growing arsenal at Pyongyang’s disposal, it is understandable that any South Korean president would be distracted from interests further afield. The audacious nature of Yoon’s re-focusing on South Korean security was surprising and controversial, however. On January 11, apparently fed up with perceived South Korean vulnerability to its nuclear-armed consanguine, and perhaps irritated with the Biden administration’s slow realization of this South Korean sentiment, he made a pronouncement that no democratic leader in Seoul has ever made publicly before: he stated that South Korea—which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence—could still consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons, if “North Korean provocations continued intensifying.” This set off a diplomatic kerfuffle that resonated—on both sides of the 38th parallel, as well as in Washington and Beijing—for much of the rest of the January-April reporting period. Given the provocative nature of Yoon’s statement, the South Korean presidential office later backtracked, “clarifying” that Yoon was simply expressing his “firm commitment to defending the nation” against North Korea’s nuclear threats, and while the “worst case scenario must be taken into consideration,” “the principle of abiding by the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty holds.” In any event, Washington took notice of its anxious ally, responding with demonstrations of commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea—including a visit by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and strategic asset deployments to South Korea. All this was in addition to regular combined military exercises and naval exercises featuring US aircraft carrier strike groups. Washington also consented to more bilateral consultation with Seoul regarding the US nuclear umbrella. The saga has concluded—at least for now—with the Washington Declaration promulgated at the Biden-Yoon summit in late April. The Washington Declaration promises tightened US-South Korea extended deterrence coordination and consultation, while the leaders’ summit—in the context of Yoon’s state visit to celebrate 70 years of US-South Korea alliance relations—functioned as a renewal of Washington-Seoul ties. These ties are now perhaps as strong as they have ever been. If Pyongyang has reckoned that increased belligerence would decouple the US-South Korea alliance, it has seemingly miscalculated.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

12. US-China Effort to Set “Guardrails” Fizzles with Balloon Incident

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The proposed “guardrail” that Joe Biden and Xi Jinping sought to erect last fall in Bali failed to emerge in the bitter aftermath of a wayward Chinese surveillance balloon that overflew the United States and violated its sovereignty. Though Antony Blinken and Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference afterward, aspersions cast by each side against the other, including a series of disparaging Chinese government reports, fed the chill in ties. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during the return leg of her US transit added to bilateral and cross-strait tensions and were met with Chinese sanctions. Issues pertaining to Taiwan, be it arms sales or a speculated Chinese invasion date of the island, remained contentious. The administration’s attempt to restart constructive economic reengagement with China, including via an important speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, appears to have fallen on deaf ears in Beijing. Following the Biden-Xi meeting on Nov. 14 on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders Summit in Bali, Indonesia, US-People’s Republic of China relations were transitioning to an improving track—or so it seemed. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers” Meeting-Plus meeting in Cambodia on Nov. 22. On Dec. 11-12, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink held “candid, in-depth and constructive” talks in Beijing. On Jan. 18, Secretary Yellen had a “candid, substantive, and constructive conversation” with departing Vice-Premier Liu He in Zurich ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Hours before Secretary Blinken was due to board a flight to Beijing on Feb. 3, which would have been the highest-ranking contact between the two sides since the Bali meeting, the budding rapprochement came to a screeching halt.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13. The US and Japan Build Multilateral Momentum

Author:: Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: 2023 brings a renewed focus on the US-Japan partnership as a fulcrum of global and regional diplomacy. With an eye to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in mid-May, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio began the year with visits to G7 counterparts in Europe and North America. Later in the spring, he toured Africa in an effort to gain understanding from countries of the Global South. The Joe Biden administration looks ahead to a lively economic agenda, as it hosts the APEC Summit in November on the heels of the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan laid out in detail the economic ambitions of the Biden national strategy on April 27, giving further clarity to how the administration’s foreign policy will meet the needs of the American middle class. Regional collaboration continues to expand. Both leaders will gather in Australia on May 24 as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts the third in-person meeting of the leaders of the Quad. Also noteworthy in this first quarter of 2023 is the progress in ties between Japan and South Korea. Trilateral consultations began early in the Biden administration, and after the election of President Yoon Suk Yeol last spring, the groundwork for resolving the many difficulties in the bilateral relationship began. This spring, President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida revealed their progress in a set of visits to each other’s capitals. A trilateral summit is planned for the G7 Summit, which Yoon will attend as an observer. Overshadowing this active multilateral calendar is the continuing war in Ukraine. Both Kishida and Biden have visited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his capitol. The United States and Japan remain stalwart supporters of the Ukrainian defense effort as Ukrainians prepare for the spring counteroffensive against Russian forces. Yet questions have arisen within the US Congress over the scale and duration of military aide provided to Zelenskyy. Interestingly, there remains little doubt about the Kishida Cabinet’s support of Ukraine. While Japan does not provide lethal aid, it has joined in solidarity with European nations to contribute to the complex humanitarian relief needed by the Ukrainian people. Political choices will also shape the remainder of the year. President Biden on April 25 announced his run for a second term in the 2024 election. The Republican field of candidates begins to emerge with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley officially declaring her candidacy on Feb. 14, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, while not yet official, has been the center of media attention. Former President Donald Trump has already begun his rallies, having announced his candidacy on Nov. 15. In Tokyo, talk of a national snap election continues, with the latest rumors suggesting that Kishida, coming off his party’s good showing in local elections in April, might opt for a ballot after the G7 Summit in Hiroshima.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Multilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14. Japan and South Korea as Like-Minded Partners in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Ji-Young Lee and Andy Lim
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The last four months of 2022 saw a flurry of bilateral diplomatic activities between Japan and South Korea in both nations’ capitals and around the world. They focused on 1) North Korea, 2) the issue of wartime forced labor, and 3) the future of Seoul-Tokyo cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite mutual mistrust and the low approval ratings of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and President Yoon Suk Yeol, both leaders had the political will to see a breakthrough in bilateral relations. Another signal came in the form of new strategy documents in which Seoul and Tokyo explained their foreign and security policy directions and goals. On Dec. 16, the Kishida government published three national security-related documents—the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the Defense Buildup program. On Dec. 28, the Yoon government unveiled South Korea’s Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, its first-ever Indo-Pacific strategy. Although each document serves a somewhat different purpose, it is now possible to gauge how similarly or differently Japan and South Korea assess challenges in the international security environment, and how they plan to respond to them. Importantly, they signal the other, the United States, and the world that they acknowledge the strategic and economic importance of their partner in their vision of the future. When one considers the future of Japan-South Korea relations, what are some of the most important takeaways?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

15. Japan-China Relations: A Period of Cold Peace?

Author:: June Teufel Dreyer
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In the sole high-level meeting in the reporting period, on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Bangkok in November, General Secretary/President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio essentially talked past each other. At an earlier ASEAN+3 meeting in Phnom Penh, Premier Li Keqiang and Kishida not only talked past each other but pointedly walked past each other. There was no resolution of major issues: the Chinese position is and remains that Taiwan is a core interest of the PRC in which Japan must not interfere. Japan counters that a Chinese invasion would be an emergency for Japan. On the islands known to the Chinese as the Diaoyu and to the Japanese as the Senkaku, Tokyo considers them an integral part of Japan on the basis of history and international law while China says the islands are part of China. On jurisdiction in the East China Sea, Japan says that demarcation should be based on the median line and that China’s efforts at unilateral development of oil and gas resources on its side of the median are illegal. Beijing does not recognize the validity of the median line. Economically, a number of Japanese industries have been decoupling from China out of concern for the integrity of their supply chains and for security reasons while others are planning to expand operations there. Both sides continued their respective defense buildups while accusing the other of military expansionism.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

16. US-Southeast Asia Relations: External Order, Inner Turmoil

Author:: Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In November three ASEAN states—Cambodia, Indonesia, and Thailand—drew favorable marks for their chairmanship of high-profile regional and global meetings: the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Leaders Meeting; the G20 Summit; and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, respectively. Helming these meetings was particularly challenging for Southeast Asian leaders—who are naturally inclined to avoid strong alignments with external powers—in the current global environment of heightened tensions between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait and the war in Ukraine. However, the year was a difficult period for ASEAN internally, with uneven economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the intractable conflict in Myanmar. The last quarter of 2022 saw two political shifts in the region: in general elections in Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim achieved a longstanding ambition to become prime minister but will have to manage a difficult coalition to retain power. At the year’s end, Laos changed prime ministers, but it is not clear if the transition will solve the country’s debt problems, which were revealed to be more dire than estimated.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Alliance, ASEAN, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and United States of America

17. US-India Relations: Friends with Benefits

Author:: Akhil Ramesh
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: 2022 was a challenging year, not just for US-India relations, but for every India analyst trying to explain the Indian government’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Explaining to a non-IR audience India’s history of nonalignment during the Cold-War era and its current policy of multi-alignment was not a gratifying endeavor. While the last four months of 2022 did not have the friction and stress-tests as the first four of 2022 or the slow and steady expansion of relations that followed between May and September, they certainly had multiple surprising events that could make them the halcyon months of 2022. In mid-November, the US and Indian armies engaged in a military exercise at Auli, not far from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) separating Indian-held and Chinese-held territory. While the US and Indian armies have engaged in exercises prior to 2022, this proximity to the Indo-China border is a first. A month later, in another first, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to India to meet Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to expand the US-India “Indo-Pacific partnership.” Yellen characterized India as a “friendly shore” for supply chain diversification and as the indispensable partner for the US. A country that earned notoriety for its bureaucracy and trade protectionism over the years was suddenly characterized as “friendly”; one that was highly skeptical of foreign militaries on its shores was actively engaging the US military at one of its most sensitive and tempestuous borders. The primary catalyst for this sea change has been shared concerns over a rising, authoritarian, and hegemonic China. The events of the last four months, while making India’s multi-alignment labored, also made it abundantly clear that the US-India relations will continue to expand to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

18. US-Korea Relations: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud

Author:: Mason Richey and Rob York
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Continuing a trend from the May-August reporting period, the final reporting period of 2022 in US-Korea relations was marked by an accelerated ratcheting up of tension. In short, numerous problems reared up on the Korean Peninsula from September-December, and good solutions have been few. And not only does this describe relations between the US and North Korea, but in their own, friendly way also the situation between Washington and Seoul, whose frequent invocations of rock-solid alliance cooperation belie unease about crucial areas of partnership. Two critical issues have been increasingly affecting the US-South Korea alliance in 2022, with the September-December period no exception. First, South Korea desires ever more alliance-partner defense and security reassurance from the US in the face of a growing North Korean nuclear threat and Chinese revisionism. Yet the US has downward-trending limits on credible reassurance as North Korea masters nuclear weapons technology that threatens US extended nuclear deterrence for South Korea. The US also faces less geopolitical pressure to effusively reassure its Indo-Pacific allies—including South Korea—as China grows to menace the regional order and the US consequently faces lower risk of ally hedging or realignment.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Military
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

19. What Losing the Iran Deal Could Mean for the Region

Author:: Seyed Hossein Mousavian
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: If President Joe Biden is seeking to restore sustainable peace and security in the region, he has to start with reviving the JCPOA
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Peace, JCPOA, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

20. Navigating R2P Between Norm and Practice

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The idea that states are responsible for the protection of their own people is a powerful normative and transformative one, but is far from complete or conclusive
Topic:: Security, Governance, Police, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Fortune and Hazard for Algeria

Author:: Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: War in Ukraine has brought new cash flow to Algiers, but the state must walk an ever-narrowing path to maintain its non-alignment
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

22. The Putin Doctrine: What is it? The Russian Strategic Issue and the Enlarged National Security

Author:: Jose Alexandre Altahyde Hage
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: One can mention that this essay is only a contribution for an urgent issue in International Relations that is igniting debates in part of the academic community and the press in general, Russian expansionism and its conception of international security that, in our view, can be defined as enlarged national security. For Moscow, the dividing line between the international and the domestic whereas considering this issue is very thin4. This is why it is not a part of our objective to exhaust such a broad and complex topic, but to present some of its features.The period analysed in this article begins in 1991, with the demise of the Soviet Union, till January 2022, that marks the beginning of military exercises in some parts of Ukraine, namely the Donbass region, promoted by Putin ́s government. Our theoretical and methodological framework is based on classical and contemporary geopolitical literature, Halford Mackinder and Zbigniew Brzezinski, and International Relations realist thinkers such as Henry Kissinger and John Mearsheimer. Nevertheless, that does not mean that we will not be able to reference some liberal authors, such as Francis Fukuyama and Joseph Stiglitz.Apart from this Introduction, our essay is divided as such: a first part in which we propose a brief review of the concept of doctrine, as used by interstate politics and the State ́s national power principle. Following, we present an analysis of the Putin Doctrine, seen as both a result and as a drive for Moscow ́s revisionism in the face of the current geopolitical balance. In the third part, we examine some passages of the 1990s and of this emerging system, as an era of globalization, liberalization and “shock therapy” that disturbed the Russian quantum. Last, but not least, in our Final Thoughts some reflections will be brought.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

23. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Convergence of Regional and Energy Security Concerns

Author:: Stefy Joseph and Aneeta Thomas Peedikayil
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: As energy insecurity remains an imminent characteristic of energy security, it can simultaneously influence the securitization of non-energy referent objects in other sectors (Adamides and Odysseas 2015). This leads one to examine the geopolitical underpinnings behind the formation of the EMGF which by and large has affected the region as a whole. Egypt, the region’s star player has always played a fundamental role in harbouring relations based on energy and regional security and hence its relations with Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, Italy and the EU needs examination in the wake of the establishment of the EMGF. The EMGF has been kept as the central pillar in understanding the international political economy behind the energy and regional security convergences by the above-mentioned member states. The objective behind undertaking this study has been to point out the inadequacies in establishing the EMGF which has inevitably shaped the geopolitics of the region.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. United States Foreign Policy Towards Jordan From the Political and Security Dimensions from 1990 to 2017

Author:: Ala Alkhawaldeh and Ayman Hayajneh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Foreign policy cannot be dissociated from what we call the theory of international relations (Holsti, 2015). Relations between Jordan and the United States go back to 1949 when diplomatic relations were first established. The United States contributed to providing economic and military assistance to Jordan for the first time since 1951 and 1957, respectively, and has continued until now. The United States and Jordan share the common goals of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in the Middle East and to end violent extremism that threatens the security of Jordan, the region, and the world at large. The peace process and counterterrorism between the two countries aid American interests. The United States has helped Jordan maintain its stability and prosperity through military assistance and close political cooperation (Bush, 2009).This study examines the United States foreign policy towards Jordan from 1990 to 2017. This period witnessed important regional and international political events that significantly impacted American foreign policy in the Arab region and the United States - Jordan in particular. The political events covered in the study have the greatest impact on the development or decline of relations between the two countries in terms of politically and security aspects.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

25. The Foreign Policy of Post-Revolutionary Iran: Expediency at the Crossroad of Suprra-Nationalism and Soverignty

Author:: Hamoon Khelghat-Doost
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy has been a source of argument among scholars since the establishment of the revolutionary regime in 1979. Iran’s foreign policy just like its revolution is still a mystery to many researchers as it is difficult to find an appropriate theoretical framework for it. Revolution and how revolutionary states such as China and Cuba view the world and build their foreign relations with other nations have been long discussed in the works of prominent scholars including Leng (1972), Armstrong (1993), Walt (1996), Halliday (2002), and Doma-Nguez & Domínguez (2009). However, what makes the foreign policy of revolutionary Iran different from other revolutionary states (mostly Marxist revolutions) and, therefore, more confusing to study, is the Shi’a Islamic nature of it.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

26. Las políticas de seguridad y defensa como valor público y bien común

Author:: Xavier Torrens
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Una nueva perspectiva de la seguridad y la defensa centradaen el enfoque de bienes comunes abre la puerta a una relaciónentre Estado y sociedadcon gobernanza. De hecho, se trata deuna nueva forma de legitimación políticadel uso de la fuerza para garantizar la seguridadrealzándola como bien común(Ostrom, 1900) y como valor público (Moore, 1998). En el escenario actual de riesgos, cada vez la política de seguridad se desarrolla más allá de lo que algunos han llamado en decir lo estrictamente securitario. En este sentido, la teoría de los bienes comunes es un marco conceptual clave para comprender la transformación y el cambio de paradigma en las políticas de seguridad. Las cuestiones que se plantean en este monográfico giran en torno al marco teórico-conceptual de los bienes comunes, o bien a algunos de sus elementos. Desde la perspectiva de los bienes comunes, la seguridady la defensa, y sus políticaspúblicas, tienen en cuenta el valor que se crea a partir de las dinámicas entre distintos actores.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, and Society
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. La “Ceguera Marítima”: características, consecuencias y alternativas.Alemania, Brasil y la Organización Marítima Internacionalen comparación

Author:: Herminio Sánchez de la Barquera y Arroyo
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El presente texto parte de tres puntos importantes que darán paso al análisis de la ceguera marítima, sus características y consecuencias desde laperspectiva de las acciones emprendidas por Alemania, Brasil y laOrganización Marítima Internacional(OMI). El enfoque principal de esta investigación es conocer cómo estos tres actores, mediante distintos recursos, tratande contribuir a reducir la ceguera marítimapropia (en el caso de las dos naciones analizadas) y lade países en desarrollo(en el caso de laOMI). Posteriormente determinaremos sus características, medios y objetivos.
Topic:: Security, Maritime, Seapower, and Dependency
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, South America, and Germany

28. El océano azulde la política común de seguridad y defensa

Author:: Xavier Torrens
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El océano azul de la política común de seguridad y defensa (PCSD)de la Unión Europea es el objeto de estudio de esta investigación, desde una aproximaciónbásicamente de policy-making, centrada en el policy design. Como punto de partida, toma contenidos de la geopolítica y las teorías del realismo que analizan por qué es tan problemática la política común de defensa europea.El estudio explica la herramienta del océano azul con el caso práctico de la aeronave F-35. A partir de su comprensión, se describe la estrategia del océano rojo frente a la estrategia del océano azul, contraponiendo unaEuropa en el seno de la OTAN y con dependencia de EEUU ante una Europa como A²E (actor estratégico y autonomía estratégica).Posteriormente, se elabora el esquema de cuatro accionesen la construcción de una política común de defensa en Europa. Se estructura la matriz del océano azul, donde se analiza la construcción de una política común de defensa en Europa, presentando aquello que debería eliminarse de la política de defensa, lo que debería reducirse, lo que se debería incrementar y, finalmente, lo que se crearía para alcanzar una política común de seguridad y defensa de la Unión Europea (UE). Luego, se plantean las cuatro barreras organizacionales para alcanzar unas Fuerzas Armadas Europeasy los tres componentes clave del cambio a las Fuerzas Armadas Europeas.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

29. Derecho humano a la seguridad:Prevención del Extremismo Violentocon Vasili Grossman

Author:: Verónica Yazmín García Morales Morales
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El presente estudio aborda el derecho humano a la seguridad desde el enfoque de la Prevención del Extremismo Violento. La Prevención del Extremismo Violento (PEV) es una estrategia en el marco de Naciones Unidas enfocada a fortalecer el respeto de los derechos humanos. La PEV aborda el extremismo violento que conduce al terrorismo desde el enfoque de la prevención y de los derechos humanos. Lo más relevante de esta perspectiva es su innovación para garantizar la seguridad como derecho humano. Es más, la PEVsurge como respuesta a las políticas de seguridad antiterroristas que se consideran insuficientes para erradicar este fenómeno. Las medidas de acción de la PEV, por tanto, van más allá de lo que en sentido estricto se conoce como política securitaria. La educación y la cultura tiene así una función importante en la PEV, como también ponen de relieve las políticas de la UNESCO. El análisis que se desarrolla expone una propuesta de espacio dialógico que aplica la medida de educación, cultura y sensibilización a través de la literatura. Se reflexiona así, a partir del diálogo con Vida y destino de Vasili Grossman, sobre el extremismo violento y los derechos humanos.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, United Nations, Literature, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Gobernanza, gestión y políticas públicas: evaluación tridimensionalde la política de seguridad del Ayuntamiento dePuebla, México

Author:: Diana Esther Guzmán
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El objetivo del artículo es analizar la política pública de seguridad y su impacto en el bienestar de la sociedad. Se parte de la hipótesis de que existe una deficiencia en la estructura o en la instrumentación, lo que genera efectos negativos en la población.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Public Policy, Management, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

31. Seguridad y defensa,de bienes públicos puros aun enfoquede bienes comunes

Author:: Valente Tallabs
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Frente a la crisis de Estado moderno derivados de cambios globales y amenazas emergentes, frente a las limitaciones y vacíos que actualmente tiene para poder proveer seguridad y defensa, frente a la desvalorización y crítica que sociedades contemporáneas tienen respecto a estas funciones por ser poco democráticas y usualmente unilaterales, conviene hacer una análisis que considere una comprensión más amplia de estos conceptos como bienes públicos puros, para comenzar a contemplarlos como bienes comunes, lo que permitiría un nueva relación entre Estado y sociedad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Public Goods, and Commons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. POLICY OF RAISING THE CAPACITY OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENTS FOR MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCIES

Author:: Samed Karovic, Jasmina Brankovic, Sinisa Domazet, and Jelena Jesic
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local self-governments (LSGs) cannot effectively manage emergencies. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to find action policies that would facilitate the increase of capacities of LSGs in such situations. The starting point for defining the policy was collecting data on the current abilities and capacities of LSGs in AP Vojvodina. The research covered 40% of the total number of LSGs and more than 64% of the population in the AP of Vojvodina. A combined open-ended survey questionnaire was constructed for data collection. The data was collected in field conditions through online procedures, direct sending of written surveys, and direct discussion of project implementation leaders. The statistical analysis of data identified that the legal aspect of LSGs and emergencies was not harmonized with other institutional documents at the level of LSGs. Most LSGs had serious difficulties in managing emergencies, especially civil protection. The platform is envisaged to facilitate raising the prevention capacity of LSGs by integrating all relevant information to provide early warnings and indications for implementing corresponding organizational, technical, and economic measures to deal with emergencies.
Topic:: Security, Law, Business, Knowledge Management, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

33. International terrorism, a threat present in Kosovo

Author:: Fidan Haliti
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article deals with the threats posed by international terrorism to the security environment in Kosovo, with a particular focus on the period of the emergence of ISIS, when a large number of fighters from Kosovo joined terrorist organisations in the conflict zone of Syria and Iraq. This article attempts to explain the general factors leading to the rise of violent extremism and religious radicalism in Kosovo, as well as why Kosovar fighters joined ISIS. In particular, it examines the institutional responses to counter-terrorism in Kosovo, the elimination of conditions and factors conducive to extremism and radicalism, and the weaknesses of Kosovo institutions in countering terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34. El modelo de intervención militar ruso-soviético

Author:: Alberto Priego
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Desde comienzos del siglo XX, Rusia y la URSS ha promovido un modelo de intervención militar que responde más a su visión imperialista que a sus necesidades de seguridad. Este hecho ha provocado que salvo cuando la intervención consistiera en una operación relámpago de cambio de gobierno, las aventuras militares hayan acabado en fracaso. Además, la incapacidad de Moscú para modernizar de facto sus doctrinas militares, unido a su atraso tecnológico, ha convertido al ejército ruso en una estructura ineficaz donde el factor humano no es valorado. Este trabajo pretende elaborar un modelo de intervención ruso-soviética que se repite en todas las aventuras militares rusas desde los años cincuenta hasta hoy mismo.
Topic:: Security, Imperialism, History, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Soviet Union, Chechnya, Hungary, South Ossetia, Crimea, and Czechoslovakia

35. ¿Hacia una Europa de la Defensa?

Author:: María Isabel Nieto
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El regreso de la guerra a Europa ha provocado, en palabras del Consejo Europeo de Versalles, “un gran cambio en la historia de Europa” y ha desencadenado efectos mundiales con una crisis alimentaria, así como efectos en sectores como la economía –con una inflación galopante– la energía y la seguridad. La seguridad y la defensa se han convertido en una prioridad en la agenda política de la Unión Europea, que ha cruzado “líneas rojas” como la decisión de suministrar armamento a Ucrania a través del Fondo Europeo de Apoyo a la Paz, algo hasta ahora impensable. Este artículo examinará cómo la agresión rusa ha servido de estímulo para el proyecto de integración y analizará los grandes desafíos y los principales desarrollos en seguridad y defensa desde la aprobación de la Estrategia Global de Política Exterior y de Seguridad en 2016.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

36. La relación de España con Argelia: Más allá de la colaboración energética

Author:: Sagrario Morán Blanco
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: España, puente de unión entre los continentes africano y europeo, tiene como objetivo preferente de su política exterior mantener estrechas y profundas relaciones de cooperación con los dos vecinos situados en la orilla sur del Mediterráneo y actores esenciales del Magreb: Marruecos y Argelia. Este artículo intenta explicar si la recomendación hecha por el Emperador Carlos V a su hijo Felipe, “dos países vecinos no pueden ni deben ser enemigos”, ha sido la tónica general en los vínculos entre los dos Estados; así como los factores que han condicionado el contenido de sus relaciones de cooperación en las últimas décadas, y también los vaivenes o momentos de tensión vividos, junto con las causas específicas que los produjeron. España y Argelia son dos países vecinos y muy próximos geográficamente, pero representan realidades políticas, culturales y religiosas diferentes que explican, en buena medida, la distancia que existe entre los dos países y la complejidad de sus relaciones. Esta diferenciación exige una mayor atención a iniciativas de sociedades civiles.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Cooperation, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Algeria, Spain, and North Africa

37. CTC Sentinel: August 2023 Issue

Author:: Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, Abdul Sayed, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Lucas Webber, and Alec Bertina
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: As we enter a new era of calibrated counterterrorism 22 years after 9/11, in this month’s feature article senior analysts at the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center provide a unique window into the U.S. government’s continuing efforts to suppress international terrorism. NCTC director Christine Abizaid writes: “It is clear to me that Americans at home and abroad would be confronted with a more severe terrorism threat if it were not for the sustained and focused efforts of the entire U.S. CT community over the past 22 years. As we approach another 9/11 anniversary, I asked senior analysts from NCTC to share more with the public and academic community about the constant, behind-the-scenes work of CT professionals across the government. It is my hope that, through this product, others can gain a greater degree of insight into what this community regularly confronts in its mission to protect innocent civilians from persistent terrorist adversaries.” In the second feature article, Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, and Abdul Sayed examine the enduring threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan (ISK). They write: “An analysis of ISK’s operations, outreach, and clashes with the Taliban indicate that the organization remains capable of strategic adaptation and is only broadening and deepening its influence in the region, posturing to become a truly regional organization. And while the Taliban have demonstrated some capacity in targeting ISK commanders, any security gains are unlikely to hold in the absence of sustained counter-ISK operations.” With the Islamic State earlier this month announcing the appointment of its fifth caliph, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, Aymenn Al-Tamimi examines what little is known about the group’s recent paramount leaders. He writes: “Despite the fact that the group’s caliphs are now very much ‘men of the shadows,’ there is little evidence pointing to the prospect of the group’s fragmentation in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere around the world, with the group’s affiliates seemingly willing to accept successor caliphs about whom little or nothing is publicly known.” Lucas Webber and Alec Bertina profile the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) and its paramilitary wing, the Russian Imperial Legion (RIL), tracing their involvement in the Ukraine conflict since 2014. They write: “With the Wagner Group’s resources waning, there may be an opportunity for RIM/RIL to deepen its involvement in Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. This could bolster the group’s recruitment, paramilitary capabilities, and thus increase the broader threat it poses. However, the organization may face sanctions in the future from the Russian state if the Kremlin continues to clamp down on Russian pro-war ultra-nationalist elements.”
Topic:: Security, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, 9/11, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

38. After the Kabul Hotel Attack: The Taliban and China Confront Security Challenges in Afghanistan

Author:: Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 12, members of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) attacked a local hotel in Kabul, where several Chinese nationals were staying. The attack injured five Chinese nationals along with 18 other victims, while the three attackers were killed by security forces (China Daily, December 14, 2022). It was reported that Chinese businesspeople run the hotel, which is frequently visited by Chinese diplomats and business people (Global Times, December 13, 2022). In response, People’s Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated: “China is deeply shocked at the attack, which is highly egregious, and firmly opposes terrorism in any form” (China Daily, December 14, 2022). The ISKP strike in Kabul will further reinforce Beijing’s commitment to giving special attention to the security and stability of Afghanistan. An unstable and volatile Afghanistan threatens Chinese interests and could be a hurdle to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Moreover, Chinese sources have expressed concern that uncertainty and unrest could lead to Afghanistan becoming a hotbed for terrorists “targeting China’s Xinjiang and its interests overseas, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, where enhanced communication and coordination between China and Pakistan is required to tackle potential threats” (Global Times, August 19, 2021). In response to these challenges, China has sought to provide the Taliban with enough support to combat all forms of terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Taliban, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, and Kabul

39. Strange Intimacies: Indo-Afghan Relations and the End of the War on Terror

Author:: Mou Banerjee
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Riding the Afghan tiger has always been an incredibly risky venture, as history is witness, and getting off safely has almost always been impossible. There is no reason to believe that the new political dispensation in Afghanistan will not experience or exercise more violent changes in the near future. This is a tinderbox situation, and as always, Afghanistan is serving as a proxy for external neo-imperial ideologies and political maneuvers. This genealogical pattern is not unfamiliar to historians—Afghanistan served the same purpose in the nineteenth century between Britain and Russia, in the twentieth century between the USSR and the United States at the height of the Cold War, and in the twenty-first century between the so-called enlightened and liberal Western world order led by the United States and the dark forces of “jihadi” terrorism. China, India, and Pakistan are perhaps setting the board for a new iteration of this eternal “Great Game.”
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and India

40. Grayzone Aggression: The Need for Deterrence by Denia

Author:: Elisabeth Braw
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Cyber deterrence needs to rely on a combination of deterrence by punishment of select attacks and deterrence by denial. By definition, punishment means that deterrence has failed, but given that it’s impossible to deter all cyber attacks and intrusions, Western governments with offensive cyber capabilities could retaliate against specific cyber attackers. The harm done to targets of such retaliation and the arbitrary nature of how they’re selected for punishment would increase the cost in most cyber attackers’ cost-benefit analysis. The public also expects the government to avenge, particularly egregious cyber attacks.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Outer Space, Information Warfare, and the Truth

Author:: Gabrielle Lim and Joan Donovan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite the distance, outer space and Earth are linked. However, our increasing dependence on space-based assets makes parsing the multitude of challenges and tradeoffs more difficult. Amidst talks of great power competition, space weapons, and commercialization there are equally pressing issues concerning production of knowledge, truth, and accountability. Though these topics sometimes overlap with national security (as with arms treaties or interstate war), they also affect the broad concept of human security—the wellbeing and safety of individuals and communities. As states and international organizations consider what to do to ensure the sustainable development and use of outer space, concerns should go well beyond simply reducing the level of debris, whether asteroids should be mined, or what qualifies as a space weapon.
Topic:: Security, Development, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

42. Sea Denial and a Scorched Earth Policy in the West Philippine Sea

Author:: Jay L. Batongbacal
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The escalating trend in China’s assertion operations is unmistakable, and it would not be unreasonable to expect that in the near future the next escalatory step would be to engage in a limited application of force as a demonstration of its intent and resolve. This could perhaps take place in relation to the tenuous hold of the Philippines on Second Thomas Shoal, about which China has clearly displayed increasing belligerence and employed steady pressure to expel the token Philippine presence on it. Another possible scenario may involve a provocative warning shot or actual ramming of government ships. As such, other contingencies within the realm of possibility should be seriously contemplated and prepared for.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and West Philippines

43. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations

Author:: Muhammed Yakup İnan
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

44. PLA Airborne Capabilities and Paratrooper Doctrine for Taiwan

Author:: Daniel Fu
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In the event of a Taiwan contingency, PLA airborne troops are likely to assume a substantial role. Decapitation strike scenarios and the prospects of an airborne invasion are widely discussed by analysts, scholars, and policy practitioners in both the US and Taiwan. Despite PLA ambitions to rapidly expand their airborne capabilities, there are a growing number voices that downplay the threat or likelihood of an airborne assault across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese security analysts such as Liu Tai-ying (劉泰英), founder of the Taiwan Research Institute, have stated that “if paratroopers were used, the losses for China would be very high” and minimized their threat by stating that there are few landing spots available to PLA airborne forces (Taipei Times, September 26, 2022). Notably, many of these conclusions revolve around the viewpoint held by a growing number of military experts, who contend that “mass airborne operations are a thing of the past” (Modern War Institute, December 10, 2016). These views, however, fail to consider the robust drive on part of the PLA to improve the combat readiness and capabilities of its airborne troops. They also ignore substantial progress the PLA has already made towards that goal, both in terms of the training and preparation of its paratroopers and in decisive factors such as heavy airlift. In short, documenting the progress of PLA airborne troops’ capabilities may play a crucial role in assessing Chinese deployment strategies during a potential Taiwan invasion scenario.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Military, and Invasion
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

45. The Long Arm of the Law(less): The PRC’s Overseas Police Stations

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In April, the FBI charged two Chinese-Americans, both U.S. citizens, with conspiring to act as agents of the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by establishing an “overseas police station” on behalf of the Fujian Public Security Bureau in New York. The defendants allegedly organized counter-protests against the Falun Gong, harassed a Chinese fugitive to return to the PRC and hassled a pro-democracy activist living in California. On June 6, the UK Government Minister of State for Security, Tom Tugendhat, made a statement with an update on Chinese “Overseas Police Service Stations” reportedly located in Croydon, Glasgow and Hendon (UK Parliament, June 6). He stated that “the Police have visited each of the locations identified by Safeguard Defenders [the NGO that reported the locations], and carefully looked into these allegations to consider whether any laws have been broken and whether any further action should be taken. I can confirm that they have not, to date, identified any evidence of illegal activity on behalf of the Chinese state across these sites.” The reactive approach in the UK is notably different from the US, where proactive intelligence led investigations by the FBI have led to multiple arrests. International concern regarding the extent of law enforcement activity by Chinese agencies outside of their home country jurisdiction has recently increased. Such activity has been reported as “Chinese Overseas Police Service Centers” (Safeguard Defenders, September 2022), “Chinese Assistance Centers” (China Brief, January 5, 2019), joint patrols in Italy with local police, structured training to local police such as in the Solomon Islands, harassment and intimidation of Chinese dissidents, and extra-judicial action to return fugitives from overseas that effectively constitutes extraordinary rendition. These activities are characterized by their diversity and, as a result, should not be considered part of a single strategy. Rather, the multiple purposes served by Chinese police forces’ expanding overseas activities can be better understood by tracing how these efforts have evolved over the past decade.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Law, and Police
Political Geography:: China and Asia

46. China’s Emerging Approach to Taiwan: Blockade and Disinformation

Author:: Chihwei Yu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: It has been suggested that China intends to unify Taiwan through a military operation within the next five years. However, based on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) actions during the 1945-1949 civil war, military means may not be the most effective way for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to achieve its longstanding goal of unification with Taiwan. Since its inception in 1921, the CCP has relied on producing and disseminating disinformation to advance its policy objectives. This strategy is also frequently employed by China towards Taiwan, with the aim of undermining the morale of Taiwanese society through the spread of certain kinds of false information, for example, by claiming that the U.S. will eventually betray Taiwan. In fact, the CCP’s military tactics during the civil war share some similarities with its current Taiwan policy, particularly with regard to the so-called “Peiping Mode” (北平模式). This approach seeks to achieve its goals through a combination of deterring the opponent through superior force and employing United Front work, including deploying agents and spreading fake news to persuade opponents.
Topic:: Security, Disinformation, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Military, and Blockade
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

47. Central African Republic Mine Attack: Can China Protect its Overseas Nationals?

Author:: John S. Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On March 19, gunmen stormed a gold mine near Bambari, in the heart of the Central African Republic (CAR), killing nine Chinese workers. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) Embassy in the CAR issued successive warnings for Chinese nationals to evacuate all areas outside of Bangui, the capital. On the same day as the attack, the Embassy called on Chinese citizens in the CAR’s external provinces to immediately evacuate themselves and report their whereabouts (PRC Embassy in CAR, March 19). A subsequent Embassy warning on March 22 went further, stressing that the situation in the CAR is now “red” or “extremely high risk,” emphasizing that the March 19 attack demonstrated the “extreme necessity of evacuating Chinese companies and nationals” in areas outside the capital “as soon as possible” (PRC Embassy in CAR, March 22). Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stressed that General Secretary Xi Jinping was closely monitoring the situation and had instructed that immediate action be taken to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals in the CAR and to “severely punish the murderers” (严惩凶手) (PRC Foreign Ministry [FMPRC], March 20). Exactly who perpetrated the attack remains, however, unclear. The CAR government faulted the rebel alliance, the Coalition of Patriots for Change, for the gold mine attack. However, the rebel group blamed Russia’s Wagner Group, which has been deployed in the country to protect the central government since 2018 (South China Morning Post [SCMP], March 20). The timing of the attack and subsequent allegations of Wagner’s involvement was inopportune for Xi as he prepared to travel to Moscow the following day for meetings with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as Beijing sought to position itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine War (Xinhuanet, March 21). In a blog post on the CAR attack, the well-known nationalist firebrand and former Global Times editor Hu Xijin observed that in “the chaotic situation in CAR anything can happen,” but rejected Western media conjecture concerning the Wagner Group’s involvement as an attempt to “undermine Sino-Russian relations” (Sohu, March 22). He even claimed that due to Wagner’s cooperative relationship with the CAR government, its operators reportedly “helped the authorities deal with the aftermath of the situation and evacuate the bodies of the dead Chinese miners back to Bangui.” Finally, Hu averred that in the “2020s anyone who kills a Chinese national will face severe punishment and retribution.” A post on Tencent echoed these sentiments, stating: “the Central Africa Republic owes us nine lives” before castigating the U.S.-led West for treating Africa as a “modern colonial territory” and creating conditions for “vicious attacks” on Chinese companies to drive them out of emerging markets (Tencent, March 28). Putting aside the murkiness of the March 19 mine attack in the CAR, the incident highlights a growing problem for China, which is the sheer proliferation of state-owned and private businesses operating overseas, either in conflict zones or in areas with chronic political instability. The population’s widespread expectation that the government will exact swift retribution against the perpetrators of attacks on Chinese nationals overseas also puts Xi in a difficult position, as popular assumptions about the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) ability to target armed groups in distant and difficult operational environments do not align with its actual capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Violence, and Mining
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Central African Republic

48. Russia-Ukraine War Compels Japan to Reassess China Challenge, Shift Course on Security

Author:: Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of the grisly Russia-Ukraine war, the security situation in East Asia may appear conducive to the continuation of the long peace that the region has enjoyed for decades. However, the devastating European war has cast a long shadow eastward. While Russia’s military presence in Asia is deeply curtailed as most of its conventional capabilities are redeployed to the Donbas front in Ukraine, the behavior of maverick North Korea has become more reckless and China’s policy has become less predictable and more assertive. As a result, Japan has adopted a more proactive approach to its international security environment predicated on enhancing its military capabilities and deepening security cooperation with key allies and partners, starting with, but not limited to, the U.S.
Topic:: Security, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

49. Cyber-Nuclear Weapons: Impact on the Modern Warfare Landscape

Author:: Shabana Fayyaz and Baqir Malik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The popular trends of information technologies have created a virtual world around the globe with the domain of cyberspace, which offers plenty of opportunities and challenges. In the last few years, several events have been described in terms of cyber warfare or the use of cyber weapons, leading to critical international security concerns. At the same time, there is little research on the definitions and power of what constitutes a cyber weapon and how it can be profiled. In the age of globalization and with the dynamic digital environment a new way of strategy and thinking is developing to introduce the new weapons, which has challenged the strategic environment around the globe and changing the concept of warfare in 21st century. The present article is to develop a preliminary hypothesis for to identifying the power of cyber weapon and how it relates with the nuclear weapon to examining the changing landscape of modern warfare. The comparative analysis of cyber weapons and nuclear weapons will help to understand the exact nature of cyber weapons with comparison of nuclear weapons to conclude which one is more preferable and dangerous in modern warfare techniques. The paper is divided into three sections. First part is brief introduction of genesis of cyber weapons, nature, evolution and its different types. The second part is comparison of cyber weapons to the nuclear weapons based on diverse characteristics (developing of weapons, security, arsenal, uses, target etc.). The third part is an analysis cyber weapon vis-a-vis nuclear weapon on the impact level. The paper conclude that the development of cyber-nuclear weapons has significantly altered the nature of contemporary warfare techniques. As technology continues to advance, the use of a cyber weapons has becomes increasingly likely, which could result in devastating consequences. It is important for nations to develop effective cybersecurity measures and maintain a strong nuclear deterrence strategy to prevent such scenarios from occurring.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Security Threats to Trade Management During the Mughal Era in South Asia (1500-1750)

Author:: Waqas Ahmed Khan, Mohammad Irfan Ali, and Muhammad Usman Askari
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Roads were developed by humans in ancient times. With the passage of time these structures went through development and took form of modern highways. A complex structure of road network existed in Indian sub-continent during imperialism in South Asia. When Mughals developed their Empire, they further developed that road network. These routes were used for various purposes like local as well as interstate trade, postal services, and movement of royal army. Individual travelers and caravans also moved on those roads. Valuable items were carried by travelers on these routes hence various groups of professional robbers, thieves and thugs were gradually formed who robbed and killed travelers. Mughal Emperors took various measures to address this issue. Administrative officers were given the task to make arrangements to provide security to travelers. Rest houses (Sarai) were made, check posts were created and local responsibility law was continued which required local village heads to provide security on roads which were present near their villages. A strong spying network was established which kept the emperor well informed about the happenings in the state. Culprits were either killed in encounters with Mughal troops or captured by the village vigil force or they were presented before Emperor and Judges who punished these criminals.
Topic:: Security, History, Transportation, and Mughal Empire
Political Geography:: South Asia

51. Deciphering Pakistan Navy’s Role in CPEC Security: A Comprehensive Security Approach

Author:: Shabana Fayyaz and Nabeel Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Contemporary geo-political and geo-economics potentialities creates new horizons for the bilateral relations between states. These potential arrangements require security as a pre-requisite, both traditional and nontraditional domain. Pakistan Navy is dealing with these security threats from a comprehensive security approach. Through Task Force-88 and Task Force-150 as well as the Force Protection Battalion (FPB) for the security of CPEC from foreign actors, it has made enormous efforts to protect the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from new challenges and threats. This demonstrates that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Pakistan Navy might accomplish compressive security through joint efforts. The protection and defence of sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) and the maritime-based economy are also enshrined in Pakistan's maritime doctrine. The Pakistan Navy's active engagement in Pakistan's security sector has also opened doors for the improvement of bilateral ties between various countries through the AMAN Exercises, a global collaboration of 45 nations to combat rising security threats.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Non-Traditional Threats, and CPEC
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and South Asia

52. Afghanistan morass: An analysis of Pakistan’s security after NATO withdrawal

Author:: Iqra Jathol and Zahid Yaseen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The study discusses about the emerging security challenges to Pakistan after NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan and Re-emergence of Taliban. After 19 years US signs an agreement and leaves Afghanistan in 2021. After withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan, country faces alarming security concerns due to extreme hunger and poverty. To understand Pakistan's security dilemma, it is essential to analyze the Afghanistan’s current security scenario under the Talban government, foreign intervention in Afghanistan, Humanitarian crises, Pak-afghan relation, boarder issue, the movements in Pakistan and refugee crises, and then assess the security concerns of Pakistan due to Afghanistan crises after US withdrawal. Certainly, the Indian factor cannot be discounted during the study of Pakistan's security dilemma or south Asian security environment. The study is in qualitative mode and tries to find some security solutions through the lens current condition of Afghanistan.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Taliban
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

53. Including Africa Threat Analysis in Force Design 2030

Author:: Glen Segell
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the threat analysis across Africa that should be included in Force Design 2030 for the United States Marine Corps to be deployed landward to Africa or seaward of the continent. It is a strategic guidance document examined from a threat analysis of China, Russia, Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Africa is not mentioned, and this is a notable omission given that high level interventions in the past to Africa have not been overtly successful. Given geostrategic significances and hot spots it is inevitable that the Marines will be deployed there again. This article examines lessons learned from failures in Somalia, Libya, and Lebanon and successes in Syria and Iraq as well as the experiences of others—France in Mali and Burkina Faso and United States Africa Command. Great power competition, violent extremist organizations, and the gray zone phenomena across Africa are examined as are security, intelligence, counterintelligence, and hybrid warfare.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and US Marine Corps
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

54. PART I: The Singleton Paradox On the Future of Human-Machine Teaming and Potential Disruption of War Itself

Author:: Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Technological innovation has historically been applied in war and security affairs as a new tool or means to accomplish clear political or societal goals. The rise of artificial intelligence posits a new, uncharted way forward that may be entirely unlike previous arms races and advancements in warfare, including nuclear weapons and quantum technology. This article introduces the concept of a singleton as a future artificial intelligent entity that could assume central decision making for entire organizations and even societies. In turn, this presents what is termed a “singleton paradox” for security affairs, foreign policy, and military organizations. An AI singleton could usher in a revolutionary new world free of war and conflict for all of human civilization or trigger a catastrophic new war between those with a functioning singleton entity against those attempting to develop one, along with myriad other risks, opportunities, and emergent consequences.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Machine Learning, Transhumanism, and War Studies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. Defence expenditure and public debt in Greece: A non-linear relationship

Author:: Ioanna Bardakas, Dimitris Doulos, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to consider and evaluate the widely–used argument attributing the growth of the public debt of Greece in recent decades to the country’s defence expenditure. We employ a two-equation model that focuses on the determinants of the military debt and how this has affected the public debt. The source of our military debt data is the Hellenic General Accounting Office, an option taken to cope with confidentiality issues. Finally, we insist on focusing on the expenditure on defence equipment imports rather than the total defence spending that the literature mostly covers, for reasons extensively analysed. Our methodology firstly assumes a linear relationship between military debt and public debt. We solve the system using 3SLS to obtain consistent and efficient estimates to derive interesting policy implications. The employment of a non-linear quadratic form not previously adopted proves to be superior in terms of performance and reveals the complexity of the above relationship. These point to the conclusion that the defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties have not had a decisive impact on the public debt of Greece. The defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties represent a very low percentage of the total public debt of Greece. Moreover, these are considered to be an investment activity rather than consumer spending, which has been acknowledged in the literature as the primary cause of Greece’s high indebtedness and the ensuing economic crisis.
Topic:: Security, Public Debt, Public Spending, Economic Security, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

56. Conclusions from the use of aviation in the first half of the first year of the Ukrainian-Russian war

Author:: Sylwester Lubiejewski
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of the article is to suggest a desirable direction in which the Polish air force, and indeed the air forces of other NATO countries, should develop so that they are better prepared for the challenges identified in the conflict in Ukraine so far. In order to achieve the aim of the research and answer the formulated research question, the collection and qualitative analysis of texts and documents, observation and interviewing took place. In order to have the ability to deter and gain air superiority during a defensive operation, the Polish air force, and air forces of other NATO countries, should have a large resource of fighter, multi-role, and fighter-bomber aircraft. An object-oriented multi-layer air defence of every military airfield needs to be organised and certain roads reconstructed as runways in the event of war. In turn, helicopter aviation units should be able to organise forward arming and refuelling points for helicopters to effectively support land forces. Attack helicopters should also have integrated fire systems that allow them to attack from a distance beyond the range of man-portable air-defence systems. All warplanes should be equipped with proven and modern systems of active and passive self-defence to make them less susceptible to enemy influence. To sum up, in light of the war in Ukraine, the article explains what aviation equipment is necessary and what actions should be taken to increase both Polish air force’s ability and other NATO air forces’ ability to perform tasks during wartime.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Air Force, Aviation, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

57. Defensive lawfare and deterrence: Analysis of Latvia’s approach to legal bases in the context of hybrid warfare (2014-2022)

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Following the ‘hybrid form’ of Russian aggression in Ukraine that emerged in 2014, the period after February 24th, 2022 is referred to as the ‘new reality’. Hence, the question that needs to be addressed is how to deter and prevent Russian aggression of this kind. The national legal framework against the aggressor is a part of the deterrence policy and can be construed as defensive lawfare. Focusing on Latvia, the aim of the paper is to analyse defensive lawfare and deterrence in the context of hybrid warfare. The following research question has been identified: What is Latvia’s approach to establishing defensive lawfare in terms of hybrid warfare? For the empirical analysis, the chronological framework has been set from 2014 to 2022. To complete the empirical analysis of the present paper, both qualitative and quantitative research has been implemented comprising document analysis and semi-structured interviews, as well as content analysis, respectively. The improvement of a regulatory base and the development of deterrence, whilst using regulatory acts, is an element of deterrence and a way to act legally. The law can be used as a weapon. Lawfare, a concept with three definitions, has two forms: defensive a nd offensive. Latvia’s legal base includes a regulation to overcome hybrid threats and to implement a broad-spectrum of defence measures. Latvia’s regulatory framework is designed for defence purposes, whilst also being a way of promoting deterrence. Decision makers must be able to manoeuvre with the powers assigned to them.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Hybrid Warfare, Lawfare, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Latvia, and Baltic States

58. Unknown gunmen and insecurity in Nigeria: Dancing on the brink of state fragility

Author:: Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, and Iyase Osariyekemwen Ambrose
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things. The incidence of attacks by unknown gunmen is pervasive and symptomatic of a fragile state where the government’s monopoly of force is challenged and where marginalisation, crises and contested spaces are ubiquitous. The thrust of this paper is that the menace of unknown gunmen is pervasive and threatens to plunge Nigeria into a cesspit of fragility. The argument is predicated on the conceptual and theoretical suppositions of a fragile state. To this end, the paper adopts the documentary method of data collection and uses qualitative descriptive analysis to expound on the phenomenon. The findings reveal that the words unknown gunmen – terminology that is used to describe the spate of insecurity in the country – are a bane to peaceful coexistence. The paper also shows that the insecurity caused by these armed attacks and other forms of threat is emblematic of a fragile state. Consequently, policy recommendations – state-building and peace-building – are proffered.
Topic:: Security, International Security, Conflict, Legitimacy, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

59. Leadership in police work applied to critical contexts: An integrative review and scientific mapping using VOSviewer and Google Trends tools

Author:: Lucius Paulo de Carvalho, Ana Paula Grillo Rodrigues, and Marcello Beckert Zappellini
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to identify cutting-edge studies on the phenomenon of leadership applied to police work, especially in critical contexts, based on an integrative literature review. The integrative review made it possible to survey publications on the subject in the Scopus, Web of Science, Ebsco Host, ScienceDirect, Core, and SciELO databases. Scientific mapping is complemented with the use of VOSviewer and Google Trends tools. The integrative review resulted in 15 studies that fit the research strategy, bringing different leadership approaches, such as instrumental, transformational, charismatic, consultative, ethical, authentic, military, destructive, and laissez-faire, through qualitative and/or quantitative studies. For bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, the research corpus was expanded to 63 articles, admitting documents that studied leadership with firefighters, military personnel, and police officers. The analysis showed almost no co-authorship link between the 129 authors. The co-occurrence analysis of keywords reveals that leadership strongly links with law enforcement, police, management, crisis management, emergency management, and decision-making, establishing a close relationship between these concepts and a semantic map that underlies the field of study. The analysis of trends by Google Trends in the science category indicates the stability of interest in the topic of leadership in the world. However, the theme of police leadership produced results close to zero. The findings reveal that few studies address leadership in police organisations, and even fewer if critical, dangerous contexts are examined. The trends analysed indicate that worldwide scientific interest in the subject remains low and the theme must be further explored.
Topic:: Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Police
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Implications of the war in Ukraine for the strategic communication system of the Polish Ministry of National Defence

Author:: Agnieszka Glapiak
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The paper explores the evolving role of strategic communication at the operations centre of the Minister of National Defence in Poland, particularly in the period leading up to and during the Russian Federation’s military aggression against Ukraine. The study investigates both proactive communication initiatives and reactive communication in response to citizens’ needs. Our research methodology primarily involved analysing official Polish national defence documents and comparing findings from studies conducted before and during the war in Ukraine. The results show that the conflict had a profound influence on the MOD’s strategic communication, emphasising the pivotal role of the Operations Centre of the Minister of National Defence. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the need for a comprehensive communication approach that encompasses both domestic and international audiences, spanning traditional and social media.
Topic:: Security, Communications, Disinformation, Military, Information, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

61. Conventional and Hybrid Actions in the Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Craisor-Constantin Ionita
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The paper aims to analytically present the existing data and information regarding notable aspects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, notably through lessons identified in the political-military field, both conventionally and hybrid. The article hypothesis starts from the consideration that even the war is not over, there are some lessons identified that should be considered for the future security of Europe and the international environment. The author uses the analytical method of research to explain the cause-effect relationship between the war itself and its future influence for the European security and world order, going down to European nations living at the edge of this conflict. It will also theoretically test those implications to determine whether they fit the specified hypothesis. The conflict itself has deepened the international consequences of almost two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. It magnified the disastrous security situation not only in Europe, but all around the world, by creating additional energy (gas) and food (cereal) crises. Therefore, the Russian – Ukrainian War has significantly modified regional and international security environment and there are tendencies to challenge the current World order. What happened in Ukraine in the past year has and will continue to have direct implications for the European and Euro-Atlantic security, going down to European nations living at the edge of this conflict. Therefore, this paper is significant for advising the political-military decision-makers on better understanding the modern operational environment and addapting future defence capabilities to face 21st Century Warfare.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

62. The Abraham Accords - Israel and the Middle East - What Next?

Author:: Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 was a turning point in Israel’s standing in the Middle East. The accords created a positive atmosphere that helped promote regional cooperation in security and the economy. This positive change does not, however, provide an answer to some of the fundamental challenges that Israel is facing, which cast their shadows on the entire region, such as the Iranian threat - Tehran’s regional ambitions and its efforts to gain nuclear capabilities; but first and foremost, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is getting further and further away from a solution, and may flare up and damage regional stability and hinder the progress in Israeli-Arab relations, which was achieved following the signing of the Abraham accords.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

63. As Israel Looks East, The Gulf is Both a Way Station and a Destination

Author:: Gerald M. Feiestein
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Israelis and Gulf Arabs became closer amid shared fears of an aggressive and powerful administration in Tehran, which boasted of its influence over four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a). With the signing of the Abraham Accords, states on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict decided that the benefits of establishing relations with Israel outweighed the risks. They reasoned that if they advocated for increased coordination between Israel and the Arab world, it would increase pressure on the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel. This article focuses on the regional factors that led to the signing of the Abraham Accords and carefully reviews this important historical document.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

64. The Two-State Delusion

Author:: Efraim Karsh
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In the 85 years since the evocation of the two-state solution (i.e., a Jewish state and a Palestinian Arab state living side by side in peace and security), not a single Palestinian Arab leader has ever evinced any true liking for the idea or acted in a way signifying an unqualified embrace of it. Allowing their anti-Jewish hatred and obsession with violence to get the better of them, Palestinian leaders have repeatedly dragged their hapless constituents into disastrous conflicts that culminated in their collective undoing and continued statelessness. So long as Palestinian society does not undergo a comprehensive transformation that will sweep the corrupt and oppressive PLO and Hamas regimes from power, eliminate endemic violence from political and social life, and teach the virtues of coexistence with Israel, the two-state solution will remain a pipe dream.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, State Building, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

65. Peace, Security, or the Economy? Israeli Narratives About the Abraham Accords

Author:: Maia Carter Hallward and Taib Biygautane
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In 2020 several Arab states announced U.S.-brokered full normalization agreements with Israel, absent any explicit compromises on Israel’s side vis-à-vis the Palestinians, a significant shift from traditionally held positions. While several of these states already had informal security, intelligence, and trade relations with Israel and, except for Sudan, were never at war with Israel, these agreements represented a significant shift in historical Arab-Israeli relations and thus required discursive justification to a range of audiences, including the Arab and Israeli publics. This article looks specifically at how the Abraham Accords were framed in the Israeli press and takes an initial look at the extent to which the Accords have impacted Israel’s economic and security situation.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

66. Selective Reconciliation: The Rapprochement Between Israel and the Gulf Monarchies

Author:: Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The September 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was the culmination of a multi-year process. Later two other Arab monarchies, Morocco, and Jordan jointed them in improving their relations with the Jewish State while the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members opted not to join the Accords. This article focuses on Gulf Kingdoms and argues that the improvement in Israeli-Arab relations is explained by a growing realization that in Iran, both sides have a common enemy; the failings of America’s Middle East policy; the anticipated economic and security benefits to be gained from improved relations; and the diminished importance of the Palestinian issue for Arab societies and governments.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Jordan, and Morocco

67. From Terrorism to Banditry: Mass Abductions of Schoolchildren in Nigeria

Author:: Freedom C. Onuoha and Joseph Chukwunonso Akogwu
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Kidnapping in Nigeria is not a new phenomenon but has assumed an alarming dimension in recent times. Acts of kidnapping are increasingly perpetrated by different criminal elements, such as militias, gangs, ritualists, and terrorists, among others, for a variety of reasons. However, the increased frequency, geographical spread, and operational sophistication of kidnapping for ransom (K4R) is a major source of concern for individuals, organisations, the diplomatic community, and, indeed, the Nigerian Government. Much of the concern is about the safety of the victims as well as the cost of this expanding criminal enterprise. For instance, Nigeria’s main geopolitical intelligence platform, SBM Intelligence, estimated that between 2011 and 2020, Nigerians paid at least US$18.34 million (₦7 billion) in ransoms to kidnappers.[1] In the first half of 2021, 2 371 people were kidnapped and the sum of about US$23.84 million (N10 billion) was demanded in ransoms in Nigeria.[2] The targets are as diverse as the actors who benefit from and the factors that underpin the upsurge in K4R. Expatriates, businesspeople, schoolchildren, women, politicians, government officials, diplomats, and traditional rulers, among others, are increasingly being targeted by criminal gangs.[3] The wanton predation on schoolchildren through mass abduction by armed groups that are ideologically or economically motivated is the latest worrisome trend in the pattern of criminal victimisation in Nigeria. This article examines the trajectory of the mass abduction of schoolchildren in northern Nigeria, highlighting the drivers of mass abduction and evaluating emerging responses by the government.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Governance, Leadership, Peace, and Abductions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

68. The Sultanate of Oman's Foreign Policy Towards the Yemen Crisis: Pillars and Limitations

Author:: Khamis bin Ali Al-Sunaidi, Sahar Tarawneh, and Kamis Snidi
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the Yemeni war in 2015, the Sultanate of Oman has been keen to adhere to a policy of neutrality and has refrained from the option of engaging in any military action, convinced of the futility of this option and its inability to resolve and change the reality on the ground. Instead, the Omani conviction was directed towards the option of dialogue and activating channels of negotiation and diplomatic communication, which is what the Sultanate has devoted its policy in Yemen towards, and it has tended to play the role of mediator between the conflicting parties.With the escalation of the war in Yemen, the Sultanate of Oman adhered to its neutral position with its quest for positive neutrality by activating and exercising the role of mediation, a role that came in line with the premises and principles of its foreign policy, and for which it had several qualifications. However, other factors, such as the nature of the crisis and conflict in Yemen, and the continued hardening of positions, remained an obstacle to the development of mediation and reaching the stage of a comprehensive settlement.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

69. Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific Region" A View from the Geostrategic Position of the Malacca Strait

Author:: Tran Hoang Long, Tran Xuan Hiep, and Nguyen Tuan Binh
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Maritime security has been in recent times emerged as a burning issue in the fields of international relations in general and in the Indo-Pacific region in particular. With topographical tectonics, this area includes numerous “choke points” on maritime routes that are strategically important to world trade, playing an important role in the transportation of oil, gas and cargo products from the Middle East to Australia and East Asia. Therefore, maritime security issues for the lifeline of the world economy are a matter of concern for the countries in the Indo-Pacific region, in which the important role of the sea route through the Straits of Malacca is increasingly emphasized. With a geostrategic position connecting the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean) and the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean), the Straits of Malacca is the shortest route between the Middle East and Asia in general and Pacific Rim countries in particular. This is the location that accounts for a quarter of the world’s marine traffic annually. Energy security and trade economy of major powerful countries in the Indo-Pacific region depend heavily on the maritime security of the Straits of Malacca route. Through an analysis of the Malacca Strait’s geostrategic location, this paper elucidates the Indo-Pacific region’s importance in maritime security field in the first two decades of the twenty-first century.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

70. Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Turkish foreign policy under Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gone through a number of turns since 2003, characterized by the country’s leader continuously taking stock of domestic and global dynamics whilst navigating between the U.S. and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. He came to power in Ankara 19 years ago after rising through Türkiye’s political Islamist movement, serving first as prime minister and since 2014 as president. Erdogan’s foreign policy approach over two decades can be divided into a number of periods: an initial era of aspirational multilateralism with a strong pro‑EU tilt, until roughly 2009; an ambitious period of regional assertion marked by failed support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Arab uprisings, until around 2015; an increasingly unilateral, hard‑power driven period through 2020; and what appears to be a new era blending hard power—enabled and symbolized by Turkish drones—and a Ukraine war, in which Türkiye is, simultaneously, selling drones to Kyiv and courting Washington while implementing the 1936 Montreux Treaty to limit its frenemy Moscow’s access to the Black Sea. Together with recent steps aimed at rapprochement with Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), these last factors encapsulate the new era of Turkish foreign policy—albeit one overshadowed at the moment by Ankara’s unwillingness to unconditionally approve Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

71. Türkiye and the Russia-Ukraine War: Impact on the West, Central Asia, and the Caucasus

Author:: Matthew Bryza
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: During a recent webinar, I was asked to address the following question: what does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for Türkiye’s approach to the Caucasus and Central Asia? At first, the question struck me as odd. Having worked on these issues since the late 1990s and now living in Istanbul, it seemed obvious to me that Türkiye’s goals in these regions have been enduring since the end of the Cold War and were not changing because of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. These goals, I said, were and remain to: secure westward exports of oil and natural gas produced in the Caspian Basin; promote stability in the South Caucasus; and strengthen Türkiye’s business and cultural ties with the Turkic populations of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Türkiye’s approach toward Russia in this context also remains what it has been since the Ottoman centuries: cooperate where possible but confront where necessary. Reflecting momentarily on this question, however, I realized how different Ankara’s goals appear from the perspectives of Washington, Paris, and Athens. In these and other NATO capitals, Turkish foreign policy seems to have shifted from its pursuit of “zero problems with neighbors” during the early years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to one of “zero neighbors without problems.” Türkiye is thus viewed within the Atlantic Alliance as a belligerent outlier, bent on violating international law to pursue the extraction of Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons, enabling Azerbaijan to use military force during the Second Karabakh War, and aligning in Syria more with Russia than with its own treaty allies.
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

72. How the Conflict Over Ukraine Affects Security in the South Caucasus

Author:: Nargiz Gafarova
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Against the background of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine, the South Caucasus is experiencing perturbation. Three examples rise immediately to mind: elements of the 10 November 2020 tripartite between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ended the Second Karabakh War statement (and the arrangements that have derived from it) are being suboptimally implemented; the leaders of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia continue to hold out the possibility to conduct a referendum on “unification” with Russia; and the uncertain outcome of the talks in Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Such and similar examples have led all three South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to pursue variants of a policy some call “neutrality” and others “hedging” between the parties to the conflict over Ukraine. Located at the intersection of Europe, Russia, and the Greater Middle East—and thus constituting the western part of the Silk Road region, as defined by the Editorial Statement of Baku Dialogues—the South Caucasus is one of the most important and, at the same time, one of the most potentially explosive areas bordering the West. Over the past several decades, developments within all three South Caucasus states have contributed to a general sense of insecurity within the region. These include, most obviously, ethno‑political conflicts, civil wars, and color revolutions; the lackluster development of Western‑style governance institutions; and the widely‑held perception of ongoing high levels of corruption. Even the potentially positive strategic consequences of the outcome of the Second Karabakh War—namely, the prospect for the normalization of two sets of bilateral relationships (Armenia‑Azerbaijan and Armenia‑Türkiye) and the unblocking of all economic and transport connections in the region—have been overshadowed by the ongoing restructuring of world order, manifested by the increase of geopolitical volatility and ambiguity due to the major escalation of the conflict over Ukraine whose present phase began on 24 February 2022. The effects of the Western‑led sanctions and export restrictions regime against Russia have spilled over into the South Caucasus— notwithstanding the fact that none of the region’s states have formally aligned themselves with them. This essay provides an overview of the reverberations of the conflict over Ukraine towards the South Caucasus, with a focus on its impact on the region’s political, economic, and security environment.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

73. ‘Strasbourg’ in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Opportunities, Obstacles, and Incentives

Author:: Rick Fawn
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Implausible might be the hyperbole of “once in a generation.” Occasionally, overstatement is legitimate and necessary. Just as the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline revolutionized development and income in the South Caucasus a generation ago, so too (and more) are the prospects of reconstruction in the region due to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. The possibilities for win‑win progress and growth are truly unprecedented. Hyperbolic hope faces challenges, and they need reconciliation with the unprecedented opportunities now recasting the South Caucasus— with potential betterment of the peoples and countries of the region, and even for the wider world. This essay first considers the momentous changes already underway as well as the significances they portend. It then assesses obstacles, and thereafter suggests ‘Strasbourg’ as a multi‑faceted label for contributions both to overcome them and help to realize fully the ambitions for this region. To be precise: ‘Strasbourg’ here means the physical, technological, and financial involvement of the EU in regional infrastructural development, including linkages of the South Caucasus more widely, and also as a metaphor for deep‑seated, historically truthful reconciliation. (In the Summer 2021 edition of Baku Dialogues, elements of both meanings were put forward by F. Murat Özkaleli in an article titled “Winning the Peace” and are built upon here.) This thinking takes even greater significance as Euro‑Atlantic planning will concentrate on redefining relations in this region due to conflict over Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

74. The “One China” Issue in U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Zhiqun Zhu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.” Five decades after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China, the Taiwan issue remains the most difficult and potentially most explosive dispute between the United States and China. While Beijing maintains that the “one China principle,” with the PRC representing all of China, is the foundation of U.S.‑China relations, Washington emphasizes that its “one China policy” treats Taiwan as a separate entity from the PRC. Meanwhile, Taipei, under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has asserted that Taiwan is already independent and the two sides across the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. As the U.S.‑China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan has quickly re‑emerged as the biggest hot‑button issue between the two great powers. The Taiwan issue is so serious that it routinely tops the agenda of meetings and phone calls between Chinese and U.S. officials, including calls between PRC President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Shortly before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Xi warned that “those who play with fire will get burned” during a phone call with Biden.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Leadership, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

75. The Lynchpin of the Middle Corridor

Author:: Anthony Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Particularly in today’s evolving geopolitical and economic reality triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Caspian region has gained greater relevance whilst acquiring renewed significance. More specifically, one of the geostrategic consequences of Putin’s ongoing assault against Ukraine and its broader implications for the global economy has been the enhanced impetus for ensuring the pragmatic and strategic utility of the “Middle Corridor” (also more formally known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR) for the Caspian region and beyond as a viable commercial transport route alternative to the long‑established northern pathway through Russia. China, which has been eager to expand its economic networks, had hoped to dominate economically the utilization of the Middle Corridor as part of an expanding BRI. But at least some of the countries in the region (and beyond) have grown increasingly uneasy about participating in it. They have viewed China as leaving many of its BRI promises unfulfilled. And they have also become more concerned that Beijing’s BRI engagement comes with too many geopolitical strings attached and can lead to debt traps. By and large, China has invested in a number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia within the framework of BRI. Most of China’s activity has taken place on the eastern shore of the Caspian. Major port, pipeline, and infrastructure projects on the Caspian’s western shore have been done without much, if any, direct Chinese involvement. Making the Middle Corridor work properly is not an easy task: it will take considerable degrees of time, financial means, and political commitment. With many economic and political challenges lingering around, by no means, the cross‑country transportation route could become the cheapest option any time soon. Nonetheless, in an increasingly raucous world where diversifying supply chains reduce risk and has become more desirable, the route could become not only fully viable but, more importantly, truly cost‑effective.
Topic:: Security, Development, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

76. A Revitalized NATO and Its "New Strategic Concept" Amin Global and Regional Changes

Author:: E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the postCovid period and the United Nations Climate Change Conference declared a “code red” emergency for the climate crisis at COP 27, a strategically calculated move came from Russian President Vladimir Putin to unlawfully invade Ukraine. From the beginning, the invasion of Ukraine has generated impacts much larger and more transformative than any previous crisis, triggering serious crisis-ridden developments in the international system and globalization and forcing national governments and global actors to recalibrate and reposition. It is in this global and broader context NATO’s Madrid Summit and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. This paper argues that the summit is historic, necessary, but not sufficient. To substantiate this argument, it analyzes is NATO’s new strategic concept in detail, exploring its critical importance, its transformative effect and the six challenges that it faces.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

77. NATO's Changing Priorities

Author:: Ahmet O Evin
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of the Western alliance and brought the transatlantic partners closer to one another. As a result, NATO, which has undergone several changes since the end of the Cold War, has regained its key role as the cornerstone of the West’s collective security interests. In its enhanced position, NATO also appears to be emerging as the champion of the liberal order as well as the universal values embraced by transatlantic partners. Yet, it may also be facing new challenges both from within, particularly in the case of a prolonged conflict in Europe, and from China, which is demonstrating increasing rivalry to the West.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

78. Russia's Assault on Ukraine: Fallout From the War

Author:: Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has already taken a severe toll on much of the world and will cause much more harm the longer it continues. Moreover, it does not seem likely to end soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that Russia has barely begun its military operation in Ukraine. He has clearly stated his goal of taking the entire Donbas. Success in that endeavor may motivate him to continue the fight for other objectives, including the major industrial center of Kharkiv, the key Black Sea port of Odesa, and perhaps even Kyiv and its environs. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his goal is to push Russia back to the line it occupied on 23 February. His Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has spoken of winning back the entire Donbas and liberating “the rest of our territory.” The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has predicted that a “grinding struggle” may continue for a long time. This article will explore some of the consequences of the war already in evidence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

79. The Historical Roots of NATO Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:: Matteo Gerlini
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The new strategic concept of the alliance looks at the Mediterranean situation as a shift in the engagement with a history that is as old as the origins of the Western bloc. In this history, the Italian role has been an example for the other Mediterranean countries that later joined NATO. The steps in the construction of the Atlantic coalition started also in Mediterranean with U.S. military engagement grounded in Truman’s doctrine. Twenty years late, the North Atlantic Council’s report on the alliance’s future tasks examined crucial “exposed areas” for NATO, and first among them was the Mediterranean. After the collapse of the Soviet system, NATO worked on a relationship of coexistence and cooperation with Russia. The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has thwarted years of discussion and work, but the partnerships promoted by NATO with the countries of the so-called enlarged Mediterranean stand as a success story.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

80. The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO

Author:: Diana Morais, Samantha Turner, and Katharine A.M. Wright
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In a ground-breaking move, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) features prominently in NATO’s Strategic Concept for the first time, a powerful signal that it will form a central part of NATO’s changing priorities going forward. At the same time, there have been significant gendered silences in NATO and its allies’ response to the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining these policy aspirations. This is despite over a decade of significant investment in the WPS architecture across NATO’s political and military structures, including the creation of a high-level Special Representative on Women, Peace, and Security, reporting directly to the Secretary General and supporting a comprehensive WPS policy adopted in conjunction with NATO partners. Focus therefore needs to be given to what NATO can do to operationalize the WPS aspirations of the new Strategic Concept in practice.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

81. A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks

Author:: Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine launched on 24 February 2022 upended Europe’s security order. The invasion was a wake-up call that peace in the continent should not be taken for granted and a catalyst for change at European and transatlantic level. The EU adopted a long-term Strategic Compass for security and defense. NATO, no longer “braindead,” issued a new Strategic Concept for the coming decade and is expanding. While there is convergence in strategic outlooks, questions remain on how both organizations will cooperate and coordinate their actions, implement the investment, troops and capabilities’ goals set in each document as well as deal with countries such as China.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

82. NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption

Author:: Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022 was potentially transformative. Allied leaders agreed to a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense posture and to continue the fight against terrorism. They committed to long-term support for Ukraine, they invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance, and they unveiled a new NATO Strategic Concept. Alliance members must now translate words into deeds. They must move from deterrence by reinforcement to deterrence by denial. They must bolster their resilience to disruptive forces. They need to offer Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other partners what they need to defend themselves. They must address the China challenge. And they must rebalance transatlantic defense burdens by boosting European capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

83. NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario

Author:: Lorenzo Somigli
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The secure defense of NATO members does not depend on the Kyiv frontline; the southern flank is the most unguarded. This paper deals with the Mediterranean, a closed sea without borders which globalized before globalization, examining some strategic alternatives for Western allies. The Mediterranean is a point of contact, a diaphragm, and a battlefield. In addition, the central Mediterranean is a relevant area where Russia and China have their foot in the door because of the disengagement of France and Italy and the lack of attention of NATO. It is precisely on this weaker frontier that NATO must relaunch its commitment and presence. Defending marine spaces determines the continent’s safety. So, losing the Mediterranean can be disastrous. And finally, it examines Italian policy in the Mediterranean to date and the reasons why Italy can and must correct the strabismus of the USA, which is completely looking at the Indo-Pacific, and of imagines a peripheral Europe without politics.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Activism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

84. Change an Continuity in NATO's Nuclear Priorities

Author:: Spenser A. Warren
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s new Strategic Concept highlights areas of change and continuity in nuclear priorities. These priorities will be driven by a combination of global and domestic political factors. In this article, I argue that the continued threat posed by Russia, the growth of the anti-nuclear movement in Europe, the rise of China, and the emergence of new nuclear technologies will drive NATO nuclear priorities for the foreseeable future. Russian aggression drives continuity in NATO nuclear priorities, as Russia has been, and will remain, the primary threat to NATO security. Meanwhile, the other factors will combine to force changes to NATO nuclear priorities and policies.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

85. Introducción a “Recursos desiguales: retos de la seguridad en la encrucijada de la sostenibilidad”

Author:: Rosa Ana Alija Fernández
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En lo que va de década,el mundo está asistiendo a una sucesión vertiginosa de amenazas a la seguridad: desde la agresión de Rusia a Ucrania, que ha reavivado tensiones militares entre potencias que parecen evocarla Guerra Fría–con amenaza nuclearincluida–,hasta la pandemia de la COVID-19, la carestía de alimentos, la escasez de energía, o los efectos de la aceleración del cambio climático yla degradación medioambiental. Calificar este último bloque de “nuevas amenazas” sería despreciar la realidad de buena parte de la población mundial, que lleva décadas experimentándolas, y que ya fueron señaladascomo amenazas a la paz y la seguridad por Kofi Annan en su informe Un concepto más amplio de la libertad(SGNU, 2005: párr. 78). Lo que resulta realmente novedoso es que ahora están impactando de lleno en los países desarrollados, que ya no pueden limitarse a tratar de repeler los efectos de estosfenómenos en otros puntos del planetacomo parte de su agenda de seguridadnacional(Wilkin, 2002: 634, 641).Por el contrario, empiezan a constatar que la rápida expansión desde los años 90 del modelo económico neoliberal en un planeta que dispone de recursos limitados está generando ya riesgos a supropia seguridad nacional, además de a la seguridad internacional.Así, poco ha tardado en comenzar a materializarsela previsión realizada porPaul Rogers,quienha señalado que en las dos próximas décadas habrá tres factores predominantes de inseguridad global: i) una turbulenta economía mundial basada en un sistema neoliberal fallido que está incrementando las brechas socioeconómicas, ii) los límites medioambientales a la actividad humana, y iii) el arraigo de una cultura de la seguridad centrada en el uso de fuerza militar como respuesta a las amenazas, incapaz de asegurar la paz y la estabilidad en un mundo socioeconómicamente dividido y medioambientalmente constreñido (Rogers,2019: 139).
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

86. De la Agenda para la Paz a Nuestra Agenda Común: la “sostenibilidad” de la paz

Author:: Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El presente artículo analiza el alcance de las agendas políticas de la Naciones Unidas en relación con la paz y la seguridadinternacionales.La percepción integral de las relaciones entre “paz”, “seguridad”y “desarrollo”justifica las nuevas perspectivas multidimensionales, preventivas ysostenibles de toda actividad de construcción y consolidación de la paz, que sigue siendo el principal propósito de esta Organización.En Nuestra Agenda Común(2021), el Secretario General contempla acciones concretas de muy diversa índoley diversidad de materias paraerradica las causas últimas que generan inseguridad y que son un obstáculo para el desarrollo sostenibleal que aspira la comunidad internacional de conformidad con laAgenda 2030. Apuesta porunamayor inversión en prevención y consolidación de la pazcon medidasque van desde el control de armamentos hasta la financiación de las estructuras de consolidación de la paz, pasando por la erradicación de la violencia, en particular contra la mujer,y la búsqueda de nuevos modelos asociativos y cooperativos, pero más allá de los acuerdos previstos en el capítulo VIII de la Carta.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. Divergencias chino-estadounidenses y reconfiguración de la política exterior latinoamericana. Introducción al número especial

Author:: Pablo Biderbost and Guillermo Boscán Carrasquero
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados Unidos y China en el contexto latinoamericano. Pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de estas potencias en la región y la adaptación que han debido realizar, en el contexto de su política exterior, los estados latinoamericanos. A tales efectos, se analizan dimensiones tanto vinculadas a la seguridad como a las relaciones comerciales entre estas naciones y los, en la actualidad, dos estados dominantes del escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, and United States of America

88. Rethinking & Revisiting Diplomacy Volume XXIII, Number 1

Author:: Richard M. O'Meara, Sylvia Paola, Claude Rakisits, William Maley, Stephen F. Sener, Mathew J. Martin, Ivelaw L. Griffith, and Ilan Kelman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: Since the turn of the century, we have seen conflicts emerge, stabilize, and deteriorate as the world has shifted towards a period of post-colonization and globalization. In the past two decades, we have seen the rise, fall, and resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. We have seen the near-century-old conflict in Palestine-Israel and Jammu-Kashmir heighten with civilian lives at stake. Myanmar marched forward with a democratically elected leader yet fell victim to a military coup d’état. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a multitude of conflicts, impacting individual countries and the global world on three levels: political, economic, and social. This global health crisis brought to the forefront a new type of diplomacy: health diplomacy. The current status of these conflicts, amongst others, pushes us to question the traditional nature of diplomacy and understand what must be done to reconfigure diplomacy for the next era. This year’s issue seeks to serve as a discourse on the failures and the future of diplomacy processes. The twenty-third volume of the Journal contains seven articles on a variety of different conflicts and current diplomacy processes, serving either as case studies or recommendations. The first four articles focus on traditional diplomacy processes and the last four focus on health diplomacy. Richard M. O’Meara analyzes the cases of wars in Afghanistan and Ukraine, arguing that not only is it crucial for practitioners and scholars to understand the beginning and end of war, but that we they must also understand as well as the conduct of battle. Examining the historical and legal definition of preventative diplomacy, Sylvia Paola evaluates the contemporary approaches and non-traditional security threats to preventative diplomacy, focusing on Mexico’s strategy for preventive diplomacy during its time as a United Nations Security Council member. Alluding to the possibility of peace in the South Asian subcontinent, Claude Rakisits outlines a three-step grand plan to carve the path to a free and demilitarized Jammu and Kashmir. Utilizing a 1½ track dialogue, focusing on the rights of self-determination, Rakisits posits that the resolution of the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, as a result, lead to peace between Pakistan and India. William Maley explores why “regional solutions” to refugee crises, especially in the case of Australia, may not be the answer to solving the refugee problem because of the influence of a state’s domestic politics favoring itself over the good of the people. When these traditional modes of diplomacy fail, what comes next? As Stephen F. Sener and Matthew J. Martin explore this same question, their answer is: health diplomacy. Focusing on past efforts of health diplomacy, Sener and Martin offer solutions to contribute to global health diplomacy and expand on how this will become a lifeline for state relations. As vaccination continues to be a key driver in the discourse of health diplomacy, Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith studies the gap in vaccine diplomacy dynamics in relation to the power players and the nature of their investment in a combination of humanitarianism and geopolitics. With the diplomatic arena expanding beyond nation-states, it is key to take into consideration the influence of non-state actors such as pharmaceutical companies and multi-lateral organizations. Ilan Kelman examines the potential for health diplomacy during the COVID-19 pandemic from a disaster diplomacy perspective, analyzing its impact on peace, cooperation, and diplomacy between countries. His analysis suggests that while pandemic-related actions may complement existing peace and cooperation efforts, COVID-19 alone is unlikely to lead to new and sustainable diplomatic initiatives for a more peaceful future. As the world continues to grapple with conflicts, traditional modes of diplomacy are being challenged, and health diplomacy is emerging as a critical element in state relations. The articles presented in this volume provide insights into the complexities of various conflicts and offer recommendations for practitioners and scholars alike. It is clear that diplomacy in the next era must be reconfigured to adapt to the changing global landscape, and health diplomacy must be embraced as a vital component of state relations.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Health, War, Refugees, Vaccine, COVID-19, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Ukraine, Kashmir, Caribbean, and Mexico

89. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - a Lethal Weapon of Tomorrow for Terrorists

Author:: Aleksander Olech
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Terrorism has been used as a form of combat for centuries. Over the years, the tools used by terrorists have evolved. While attacks with cold weapons still take place, nowadays terrorists also use explosives, machine guns, guided missiles and increasingly often drones. The present growth of the arms market has led to terrorist groups being heavily militarized, as they can successfully acquire modern weapons and subsequently use them in their attacks. This state of affairs has directly affected the security of states and societies, and subsequently became a principal subject of discussion on international security forums. Contemporary global terrorist threats also harness artificial intelligence that supports weaponized robots, missiles, as well as clusters of killer drones. This narrative arose a few years ago, indicating that terrorists may have a vastly greater array of options at their disposal because they may cooperate with some states that would back them up. The chance for terrorist organisations to gain access to artificial intelligence technologies only increased due to the global competition surrounding it. Due to this potential spreading, terrorists will have a chance to operate weapons supported by AI. These events then merge into a deeply concerning scenario which conceivably may have to be confronted. The threat of terrorist organisations possessing and using swarms of drones does not seem to be very distant.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. CPLP: the first twenty-five years

Author:: Joseph Marques
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: The decision by Conjuntura Austral to dedicate a special issue to the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) is to be commended. The uniqueness of the organization justifies a timely review of a small sample of its activities to date. Created in 1996, the CPLP adopted three main vectors of activity:1) the promotion and dissemination of the Portuguese language; 2) cooperation in a wide array of domains (i.e., education, health, science and technology, defense, agriculture, public administration, communication, justice, public safety, culture, sport and social communication, sustainable development, etc.); and 3) political and diplomatic coordination, especially in multilateral forums. The organization also agreed to adhere to several fundamental political principles such as the respect of the sovereignty of each member country; non-interference in domestic issues; reciprocal treatment; peace, democracy, rule of law, human rights, and social justice; territorial integrity of each member state; and the commitment to the promotion of development and cooperation. In addition to a common language and shared cultural heritage, the uniqueness of the CPLP results from the union of nine non-contiguous member states into a privileged geocultural space – the lusosphere – dedicated to the active promotion of its three main goals across four continents. It is a privileged forum for a “pluricontinental dialogue” in Portuguese. In addition, each country contributes by bringing its history, its unique interpretation of the “lusosphere” as well as its regional context (i.e., membership in the European Union, Mercosur, Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States, etc.) as well as economic opportunities to the group. By joining, member countries reinforce the group’s collective projection onto the world stage as well as the opportunity to expand each member country’s diplomatic footprint. While each member had different reasons to join (i.e., maximize politicaldiplomatic cooperation, language promotion, widen access to technical cooperation, etc.), all believe that the CPLP can bolster the group’s overall political and diplomatic prestige while enhancing their collective and individual prospects. This special issue consists of six articles ranging from language to health, security and defense issues, business negotiations and civilian-military relations. It covers but a few topics from a long list of issues which, after the first twentyfive years of this new international organization, warrant the attention and critical review of academic scholars.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Health, Business, Language, Indigenous, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Brazil, South America, Southeast Asia, and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP)

91. The United Nations mission in disarmament, demobilization and reintegration in Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste

Author:: Muhammad Zahrul Anam Sugito
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Timor-Leste during and after the process of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) in the years 2000-2004 did not achieve an acceptable level of security. This article, using a DDR maximalist perspective and a liberal perspective in security studies, examines the UN limitations in providing a solid problem-solving process and its implications for DDR. The qualitative data collected from several personal interviews to different stakeholders is analyzed using thematic analysis. Based on these interviews and observations this research finds that the UN had several limitations to carry out DDR in Timor-Leste, being the most salient, the weak legitimacy and the lack of professionalism in human resources.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Timor-Leste and Southeast Asia

92. De la Agenda Normativa Al ‘Giro Pragmático’: Causas, Implicaciones y Dilemas de la Estrategia Securitaria de la UE en El Sahel

Author:: Óscar Mateos Martín
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La región del Sahel se ha convertido en una prioridad estratégica para la Unión Europea (UE). Bruselas ha desplegado en la última década diversas misiones en el marco de su llamada Política Común de Seguridad y Defensa en países como Mali o Níger, a la vez que ha ofrecido un respaldo directo y masivo a nuevos actores regionales como el G5 Sahel, contribuyendo así a la proliferación de iniciativas militares impulsadas por diferentes actores globales que han convertido esta región en un espacio cada vez más militarizado y securitizado. El artículo analiza el contexto y las características de esta estrategia, considerando que escenifican un giro sustancial del papel tradicionalmente más normativo de la UE en el continente africano a una estrategia mucho más “pragmática”. Se argumenta que este cambio no responde a una única lógica sino a factores de diferente naturaleza y, a su vez, que presenta múltiples problemas, implicaciones y dilemas para la agenda europea en África en el corto, medio y largo plazo.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Militarization, and G5
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

93. March 2022 Issue

Author:: Bennett Clifford, Daniel H. Heinke, Audrey Alexander, Teddy Macdonald, and Richard M. Yon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: “The January 15, 2022, hostage crisis at a Jewish synagogue in Colleyville, Texas, resurfaced a longstanding jihadi cause when the armed hostage-taker demanded the release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani neuroscientist-turned-al-Qa`ida-operative currently serving an 86-year-sentence in an American prison for attempting to murder U.S. troops in Afghanistan,” writes Bennett Clifford in this month’s feature article, which looks at how her case continues to motivate jihadi terror plots in the United States. Clifford argues that “the factors that initially skyrocketed her case as a cause célèbre for jihadis have grown in importance. The jihadi movement, particularly in the West, has had a particularly intense focus on the plight of Western women jihadis behind bars during the past several years … [and] Siddiqui is the prototype for the ‘aseerat,’ the female prisoners of the jihadi movement who are constantly the subject of propaganda pushes, crowdfunding campaigns, and jihadi operational activities.” Our interview is with David Caulfield, who served as Chief of the Defense Combating Terrorism Center at the Defense Intelligence Agency before his retirement earlier this year. Daniel Heinke assesses that the Querdenken protest movement in Germany, which emerged in 2020 in opposition to government COVID-19 measures, is “apparently open to conspiracy theories and right-wing extremism” and has become “a serious threat to public security.” He notes that not only did Querdenken protestors attempt to storm Germany’s parliament building in August 2020, prefiguring the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot, but an alleged 2021 plot to assassinate Saxony’s premier was “reportedly fueled by corona-skeptic grievances and apparently had linkages to the broader Querdenken movement.” He writes: “The threat posed by the movement is that it can fuel anti-government sentiments and thus may form a gateway for the acceptance of more extremist views and ultimately for the belief that resorting to violence may be acceptable or even necessary to defend rights.” Audrey Alexander and Teddy MacDonald examine how jihadi terrorists in Syria move, hide, and access funds using digital currencies. They assess that “All in all, digital currencies are not replacing other methods of terror finance. Instead, terrorists in Syria often use digital currencies in conjunction with other money service businesses and transfer methods.”
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Jihad, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

94. Statesmanship for Political Economy in the National Interest

Author:: Nathan Hitchens
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: As we emerge unevenly from the ravages of a global pandemic, the new world upon us is summoning statesmanship for political economy in the national interest. 2020 was apocalyptic in the true sense of the word. The depth of our dependence on Chinese manufactures for everything from face masks, respirators, ventilators, to basic pharmaceuticals was revelatory. This emergency unveiled the gaunt figure of American industry. Yet, our industrial thinning-out was there for all to see during America’s decades-long, neoliberal diet of globalized supply chains, offshored manufacturing, and international trade based on economic comparative advantage and specialization. An optimist might object to this dire picture and point to Operation Warp Speed, the massive effort of industrial policy in pharmaceuticals and drug development, which produced vaccine formulae in record time by relying on a World War II model of public-private sector mobilization and on powers of the federal government in the 1950 Defense Production Act.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

95. Prospects for Pax Caucasia? The 3+3 Regional Cooperation Initiative

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The 3+3 format for regional cooperation is an initiative that was first proposed by the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War, building somewhat on an idea that originated in Iran during the war itself. This grouping covers the three countries of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) plus the three most important countries neighboring this region (Russia, Turkey, and Iran). Thus in December 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the initiative at a joint press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, during his visit to Baku in which he reviewed the military parade marking Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the aforementioned war—a war that heralded the fundamental transformation of regional geopolitical and geo‑economic realities. On this occasion, Erdoğan called 3+3 a win‑win initiative for all actors in the region. Given its obvious potential to promote peace and security in the South Caucasus and facilitate the normalization of relations between former belligerents, some local experts believe that the 3+3 initiative could be instrumental for the emergence of Pax Caucasia. Four of the six countries immediately reacted positively to the initiative, with Armenia and Georgia expressing some reservation. While Armenia initially sounded skeptical, the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan eventually confirmed its participation in this format. For now, the only country that retains distance from the Pax Caucasia process is Georgia which, due to its ongoing territorial dispute with Russia, refuses to participate in this platform and proposes an alternative 3+2 format (the countries of the South Caucasus + the EU and the United States). Tbilisi has called its counterproposal the “Peaceful Neighborhood Initiative” but has taken no concrete action to set it in motion. Neither Aliyev nor Pashinyan have yet to publicly comment on the 3+2 format. Others have also remained silent. Hence, the likelihood it can prevail over the 3+3 framework in geopolitical substance is low, given that it excludes major active regional players like Russia and Turkey and substitutes them with two Western actors that are evidently less engaged in the region. The advent of the present phase of the conflict over Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, has also not increased the prospects of the Georgian idea being adopted, either.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

96. The Alliance of Civilizations and the Role of Spain

Author:: Ramon Blecua
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The crisis over Ukraine reinforces the view that, despite progress in many areas on the international agenda in recent years, the number of people affected by conflict and violence keeps growing. In the past 20 years, the number of forcibly displaced people has doubled, reaching over 80 million. According to United Nations data, over 60 percent of conflicts have relapsed in the last decade, a staggering figure that testifies of the difficulty of conflict resolution in this context. More than 80 percent of conflicts over the past 30 years involve militias and non‑state actors, while the more recent rise in transnational violent extremist groups has increased the challenges for conflict resolution. Civil wars are leading to more protracted conflicts with ethno‑cultural components, which complicate the traditional political approach. Existing multilateral mechanisms and diplomatic negotiations are increasingly ineffective, and a new toolbox for conflict resolution is more urgent than ever. The combination of great power competition, regional struggles for hegemony, and the proliferation of non‑state actors create interlocking and multi‑layered conflicts that impact international peace and stability. At the same time, these elements are challenging the traditional approaches whilst further putting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals at risk, as recognized inter alia by the latest Strategic Plan of the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. The international multilateral order is being questioned from many different quarters, while the wave of global protests shows the exhaustion of existing economic and political models, as well as the need for a new social contract. The impact of the pandemic and the measures taken to control it are also having a profound impact on these new political and economic dynamics, laying bare the growing inequalities of the new digital economy as well as the weakening of solidarity and common action. The increasingly intricate fabric of peace and conflict and the multiplicity of actors involved have made conflict resolution more complex, as stated in the December 2020 Concept on EU Peace Mediation. Terrorism and radicalization have become a more imminent security threat and tensions related to environmental degradation, irregular migration and forced displacement, are affecting the social fabric in fragile states in unprecedented manners.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Alliance, Multilateralism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Spain

97. Tying Human Rights to U.S.-DPRK-ROK Negotiations

Author:: Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: For over three decades, the United States and the international community has been attempting to engage North Korea diplomatically, aiming for the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of North Korea. The Kim family regime has been committing crimes against humanity, but human rights concerns have been discounted by U.S. and other negotiators, fearing they would be an obstacle to a negotiated solution to the grave military and security challenges Pyongyang poses. North Korea has breached each and every one of the international obligations it has assumed, from imembership in the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework to the Six Party Talks to the 2012 Leap Day Agreement. While its negotiating counterparts have neglected human rights concerns in multilateral and bilateral talks, North Korea has continued to develop and test its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. It is time for a new paradigm, that brings human rights into the conversation, in a bilateral or multilateral setting.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Appeasement
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

98. China’s Role in Korean Security Issues

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China’s great power over North Korea eroded when COVID-19 control measures ended most trade with the Kim regime. Moreover, China’s conflicts with various countries mean Beijing cannot afford to alienate any friend, and Kim Jong Un knows that. Beijing is still influential in Seoul, but it lost much of its clout when the conservative-leaning candidate prevailed in the March 2022 presidential election. China will also suffer a loss in standing because it is paying less attention to Korean affairs and is closing itself off to the world.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

99. Russia's War and The Future of European Order

Author:: Thomas Diez
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s war in Ukraine fundamentally challenges the post-Cold War international order. Yet the scenario of a renewed Cold War must be balanced by alternative visions of European order. This contribution reassesses the concepts of interdependence, socialization, normative power, and international society taken from international relations theory to develop some general lessons for European order and concrete pointers toward alternative policy paths. Such an order needs to build on a more honest engagement, serious great power management mirrored by societal linkages, and creative thinking about joint institutions and regional overlaps.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, War, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

100. Europe's Hour of Reckoning

Author:: Knud Erik Jörgensen
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The hour of reckoning is when one confronts past mistakes and decides what to do next. Russia’s war in Ukraine reveals numerous European mistakes in the past and accelerates the development of a new foreign policy paradigm. The article examines the emerging policy paradigm and how it organizes the politics of EU foreign policy. Moreover, the article argues that the emerging paradigm is closely connected to, if not dependent on, the ongoing processes of reckoning, that is, to the degree that past mistakes are acknowledged. Finally, the article argues that the twin processes of reckoning and paradigm change make a determining factor for the future of Europe
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Europe

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS