Content Type: Journal Article / Publishing Institution: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

1. Countering Iraq’s Anti-Shelter Policy in the Islamic State Era

Author:: Lisa Davis
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Moments of catastrophe that destroy communities often provide opportunities to rebuild them to be more resilient to preexisting harms. The challenge lies in spotting and seizing those opportunities. With the re-takeover of Mosul and other cities formerly controlled by the Islamic State, the rapidly growing demand for shelter in Iraq continues unabated. Yet the dearth of supportive services in many affected communities continues. One obstacle is an Iraqi policy that effectively forbids local organizations from providing shelter. The potential solution lies in international allies partnering with local organizations in a new way: by supporting their policy initiatives. In Iraq, local activists know that changing the anti-shelter policy in a time of massive humanitarian crisis would broaden the safety net for women fleeing all forms of violence while also helping to dismantle long-term structural violence. This is the paradox of crisis. One local organization, the Organization of Women’s Freedom in Iraq (OWFI), is stepping up to meet the needs of survivors of gender-based violence by providing much-needed shelter, albeit clandestinely. Together with international partners, OWFI is challenging Iraq’s anti-shelter policy and creating the conditions for structural change.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Islamic State, Local, and Shelters
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

2. Shoring Up a Democracy Under Siege

Author:: Laleh Ispahani and Ryan Knight
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The US is experiencing an unprecedented erosion of democratic institutions and norms under the Trump administration. While constitutional checks and balances are holding for now, we are seeing the kinds of challenges that have presaged a shift toward authoritarianism in other countries. If not countered, this kind of “constitutional regression” can develop into something that looks like a more lasting authoritarian condition, with institutions that are so hollowed out as to be ineffective, and with impact that outlives the Trump administration. Since November 2016, American civil society’s reform sector has adjusted, adapted, and innovated to meet these challenges. To facilitate their success, the philanthropic sector must likewise adapt. The Open Society Foundations (OSF) are a global philanthropy whose mission is to foster open societies in place of authoritarian ones.[i] Our founder, George Soros, was born in Hungary and lived through the Nazi occupation of 1944 to 1945, which resulted in the murder of over 500,000 Hungarian Jews. In 1947, as Communists consolidated power in Hungary, Mr. Soros left for London where, ultimately, he studied philosophy with Karl Popper, author of The Open Society and Its Discontents, at The London School of Economics and Political Science. In 1956, he emigrated to the US, where he worked in the worlds of finance and investment. He has used the fortune he amassed to support philanthropy that reflects Popper’s philosophy—that no ideology is the final arbiter of truth, and societies can only flourish when they allow for democratic governance, freedom of expression, and respect for individual rights.[ii] Mr. Soros began his philanthropy in 1979, giving scholarships to black South Africans under apartheid who might lead their country out of closed and authoritarian conditions, and into ones governed by democratic principles, respect for the rule of law, protection of the rights of minorities, and civil and political liberties. In the 1980s, he applied the same principles to help promote the open exchange of ideas in Communist Hungary, and across Eastern and Central Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. While the Foundations started as an effort to help those in countries emerging from more closed or authoritarian conditions, in 1996, OSF launched its first US-based programs; as Mr. Soros wrote in 2006, “America was an essentially open society [but] even open societies are open to improvement.” Since then, OSF and leaders of civil society have worked to protect democratic society and its institutions in the US and in over 140 countries around the world. At OSF, our guiding principle is that the world is imperfect, but that what is imperfect can be improved. With that comes a commitment to examining our own role in the world, a constant questioning as to whether our philanthropy—what we fund, and how we fund it—is responsive to the most pressing issues facing the world as it really is, and not as we perceive it to be. Still, even though we have spent the last two decades supporting U.S.-based efforts to counter what we view as threats to the American democratic project (e.g. the influence of big, secret money on politics, restrictions on the right to vote, the criminalization of poverty, racial disparities in the criminal justice system, a bipartisan tendency toward government secrecy), to date, we viewed that work as part of a project to ensure that a largely sound framework was improved so that it lived up to its promise. As we reflect on conditions a year after President Donald Trump’s election, however, we think that the US is experiencing an unprecedented erosion and hollowing out of democratic institutions and norms, and could be derailed from this course of improvement. This prompts us to consider how OSF might work differently in order to allow our civil society grantee institutions to more assiduously protect against further decline. Together, these shifts in civil society and philanthropy could erect the bulwark needed to counter both the threat of constitutional regression and the more remote risk of a total constitutional breakdown. These reforms are significantly informed by rights organizations and foundations operating in other countries that are contending with threats to democratic government.
Topic:: Civil Society, United Nations, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Colombia, A Laboratory For History

Author:: Juan Manuel Santos
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Not long ago, Uruguay’s former president Jose Mujica said something that stuck in my mind: “Colombia is a laboratory for history!” In a polarized world facing numerous political disturbances, sectarian warfare, terrorism, and even the growing and frightening prospect of nuclear conflict, I believe President Mujica was trying to draw attention to my country’s hopeful, and perhaps unlikely, story of peace. The fact that a country like Colombia was able to end a 50-year-long war that left millions of victims and untold bloodshed between sons and daughters of the same nation is a beacon of hope in today’s disheartening global landscape. Indeed, the negotiation process and our efforts toward building a lasting peace constitute a true laboratory of ideas, experimentation, and lessons learned that could help find solutions in other parts of the world with similar or worse problems.
Topic:: Democracy, Conflict, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

4. Natural and Quasi-Natural Experiments to Evaluate Cybersecurity Policies

Author:: Benjamin Dean
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Over the past decade, numerous countries around the world have developed and implemented national cybersecurity strategies. Yet very few of these strategies have been subject to evaluations. As a result, it is difficult to judge the performance of strategies, the programs that comprise them, and the cost-effectiveness of funds spent. Natural and quasi-natural experiments are a promising set of research methods for the evaluation of cybersecurity programs. This paper provides an overview of the methods used for natural or quasi-natural experiments, recounts past studies in other domains where the methods have been used effectively, and then identifies cybersecurity activities or programs for which these methods might be applied for future evaluations (e.g., computer emergency response teams in the EU, cybersecurity health checks in Australia, and data breach notification laws in the United States).
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Data
Political Geography:: United States and North America

5. Honing Cyber Attribution

Author:: Justin Key Canfil
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Concerns about state-directed cyber intrusions have grown increasingly prevalent in recent years. The idea that state principals can obfuscate their involvement in such attacks by delegating operational tasks to non-state agents poses a particularly significant challenge to international enforcement and remedies. Gaps in international law, coupled with obstacles to detection in such cases, may make it more difficult to bring sponsoring states to justice. This paper offers a roadmap for assessing the propensity of states to delegate to non-state actors and correct for false positives in standard (typically more technical) cyber attack attribution methods. I conclude that the conditions under which attacks are likely to have been backed by sponsoring states occupy a much narrower window than conventional wisdom suggests, and that the universe of transgressors can be identified when standard indicators overlap with specific conditions.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Election Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and North Am

6. Is Cyber Defense Possible?

Author:: Sorin Ducaru
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Cyber issues are rapidly growing in importance to defense alliances. The Journal of International Affairs talked to Ambassador Sorin Ducaru, NATO’s assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges, about NATO’s efforts to improve its cyber defenses against emerging threats.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

7. Inside the Digital Revolution

Author:: Heather Brooke
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Technology and transparency combined to create the digital revolution, which in turn has ushered in a new form of monitory democracy. Communicative abundance and global interconnection mean the democratic franchise can expand and deepen, but the author argues that it matters who is made transparent and for what purpose. Content and context matter. Technology and transparency can be used to strengthen democracy by opening up government to citizens, but the same tools can also be used by the state to surveil and disempower citizens, thereby damaging democracy. The author uses three case studies to discuss the impact of digitizing information on power relations between citizens and states. First, her observations as the journalist and litigant in the legal case that forced the digitization of UK parliamentary expense records, which when leaked created one of the biggest political scandals in that country for decades. Second, she obtained the entire set of U.S. diplomatic cables and reported on their contents for the Guardian. Lastly, she served as a member of the Independent Surveillance Review Panel, set up by the UK government to investigate allegations made by Edward Snowden that the UK and U.S. governments were conducting mass surveillance programs that were potentially illegal and lacked adequate oversight. The case studies show how journalism is integral not only to identifying useful civic information but also maximizing the public good from leaked information while minimizing harm.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Journalism, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

8. How the Next U.S. President Can Contain China in Cyberspace

Author:: Adam Segal and Rob Knake
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: When transition planning gets underway in earnest this fall, one of the hardest memos to write will be the outbrief from the current National Security Council (NSC) team on what to do about China’s ongoing campaign of cyber espionage targeting the intellectual property of U.S. companies. While long a focus of both the president’s cyber and China teams, there is little chance that in the coming months the issue is going to be brought to any type of resolution. Instead, the next president will inherit a partially implemented plan that has produced positive results in the short term, but its long-term sustainability remains uncertain. He or she would be wise to follow the playbook left by the Obama administration, with a redoubled focus on the investigation and prosecution of cybercrime. Critics of the administration on this topic generally fall into two camps. One, summed up nicely by the title of a book by Peter Kiernan, is the Becoming China’s Bitch camp.[1] In this view, the United States is so dependent on China that the Chinese can do what they want and there is little Americans can do to stop them. They hold U.S. debt, Americans can’t manufacture anything without them, Chinese students are leaps and bounds smarter than American students, and there are millions more of them studying science and math. The Chinese are strategic, looking around the corner of history and shaping it in their interests. They are playing three-dimensional chess and President Obama has been playing checkers. They put the blame on what they would characterize as Obama’s willingness to “lead from behind.” They then quote Sun Tzu, reference Unrestricted Warfare, and drop the mic.[2] The second view is the Coming Collapse of China camp.[3] In this view, despite an aggressive anti-corruption campaign and a more assertive foreign policy, China is weak, wounded, and dangerous. The Communist Party made a deal with the devil, offering economic growth in exchange for loyalty to the regime. Now, the leadership can’t keep up with their end of the bargain. Growth is slowing, and at a faster pace than the official figures acknowledge. Over investment continues and economic reforms have stalled. Air and water pollution are a drag on the economy and a threat to citizen health. Paranoid about any dissent, the party has tightened restrictions on the Internet and the media and arrested feminists, civil rights activists, and lawyers. One spark could start protests that lead to widespread instability and perhaps the end of Communist Party rule. What’s interesting is that these divergent views of China’s place in the world similarly predict there is little chance that China will cease stealing intellectual property. In the first view, China holds all the cards, and there is simply nothing the United States can do to impose costs and stop the hacking of companies. If China is desperate and dangerous, then it can’t stop stealing technology and business secrets because they are needed to fuel the economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, and Conflict
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and North America

9. Toward Practical Cyber Counter Deception

Author:: Christopher Porter
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Nation-states increasingly engage in strategic deception in cyberspace, frustrating traditional counter deception approaches. This paper evaluates and critiques the philosophical underpinnings and practical implications of existing military-political counter deception and computer forensic approaches. Analysts can better detect and expose strategic deception campaigns in cyberspace by focusing on the size and organizational strength threat actors need to conduct the operations.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Attribution of Malicious Cyber Incidents: From Soup to Nuts

Author:: Herbert Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Attribution of malicious cyber activities is a deep issue about which confusion and disquiet can be found in abundance. Attribution has many aspects—technical, political, legal, policy, and so on. A number of well-researched and executed papers cover one or more of these aspects, but integration of these aspects is usually left as an exercise for the analyst. This paper distinguishes between attribution of malicious cyber activity to a machine, to a specific perpetrator (often a human being pressing the keys) initiating that activity, and to an adversary that is deemed ultimately responsible for that activity. Which type of attribution is relevant depends on the goals of the relevant decisionmaker. Further, attribution is a multi-dimensional issue that draws on all sources of information available, including technical forensics, human intelligence, signals intelligence, history, and geopolitics, among others. From the perspective of the victim, some degree of factual uncertainty attaches to any of these types of attribution, although the last type—attribution to an ultimately responsible party—also implicates to a very large degree legal, policy, and political questions. But from the perspective of the adversary, the ability to conceal its identity from the victim with high confidence is also uncertain. It is the very existence of such risk that underpins the possibility of deterring hostile actions in cyberspace.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. A Non-State Strategy for Saving Cyberspace

Author:: Jason Healey
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: America’s future, and that of other nations and peoples, will be most secure in the long term with an emphasis on future prosperity unlocked by the Internet. The Internet may have surpassed Johannes Gutenberg’s printing press as history’s most transformative invention because of how it has spawned parallel and simultaneous revolutions across other technologies. By making information so cheap to produce, compute, and share, the Internet enabled rapid advances in technologies as far afield as manufacturing and genetics. The problem is that there is no guarantee the future of the Internet, and the larger entirety of cyberspace, will be as rosy as its past. It is possible, even likely, that the Internet will not remain as resilient, free, secure, and awesome for future generations as it has been for ours. Imagine that twenty years after the invention of the printing press, the pope and the princes of Europe—in fact, anyone who had some basic skills and desire to do so—had the ability to determine exactly what was being printed, exactly who was printing it, and exactly to whom they were sending it. Worrying about intellectual property theft, privacy, or civil rights (had those concepts existed) would have missed the bigger picture. With no trust in the underlying communication medium, the future of Europe and the future of humanity would have been profoundly changed—not just for five years, but for 500. If the printing press was so easily compromised as computers are today, could there even have been a Renaissance or an Enlightenment? This amazing transformative technology, the Internet, is unsustainable unless we make sweeping changes. We are all becoming absolutely dependent on an unknowably complex system where threats are growing far faster than the Internet’s own defenses and resilience.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Internet
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. We’ve Been Here Before: The Durability of Multilateralism

Author:: David Bosco
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Several of the Trump administration’s opening foreign policy salvoes have been aimed directly at the world’s multilateral structures. The president and his nominees lambasted the UN Security Council for its December resolution declaring Israeli settlements illegal. A draft executive order reportedly called for funding cuts of up to 40 percent to the United Nations and an end to new multilateral treaties. The administration withdrew funding from the UN Population Fund and hinted that it might spurn its Human Rights Council as well. “A wave of populism … is challenging institutions like the United Nations and shaking them to their foundations,” said UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. The United Nations is far from the only multilateral target. The president quickly pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations and demanded changes to the longstanding North American Free Trade Agreement. His team floated the idea of tariffs on Mexico that could violate World Trade Organization rules. He pledged to review U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement on climate change. Just days before taking office, Trump called NATO “obsolete” and predicted that more members would abandon the European Union. In a sign of displeasure at what he perceives as freeloading NATO members, Trump reportedly presented German Chancellor Angela Merkel with a “bill” for underinvestment in her country’s military. The president’s apparent aversion to key alliance structures and multilateralism has fed growing alarm that the administration plans to abandon the post-World War II international order. In this publication, scholar and former Obama administration official Anne-Marie Slaughter warned that “the next four to eight years may well see the end of the United Nations as a serious forum for global decisionmaking about peace and security.” Jack Goldsmith, a Harvard Law professor who worked in the Bush Justice Department, called Trump’s early moves “the beginnings of the greatest presidential onslaught on international law and international institutions in American history.” Others have argued that China may now be more committed to key global institutions than Washington. Major multilateral organizations like the UN, WTO, and EU and multilateral treaties are not, of course, the whole of the international order. Informal norms, habits of cooperation, and embedded power realities arguably play an even greater role in maintaining a modicum of order in the international system. But formal organizations and treaty regimes undoubtedly play an important role, which has become more prominent since the end of the Cold War. The prospect of an American administration actively undermining these instruments is unnerving. As with much else in the administration’s troubled first months, however, there’s confusion about what exactly lies beneath the smoke and steam. The draft order on UN funding has been delayed for further review. Senior U.S. officials have repeatedly toned down (or openly contradicted) several of the president’s most outlandish comments. Both Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Vice President Mike Pence sought to reassure European allies that Washington does in fact value NATO and the EU. So how serious and unprecedented is the Trump administration’s challenge to multilateralism?
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: United States and North America

13. End Times Diplomacy at the UN?

Author:: Richard Gowan
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In her last days at the UN, Samantha Power practiced "end times diplomacy" in anticipation of President Trump but Nikki Haley has followed Power's diplomatic playbook.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

14. Misperceiving U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf: Raising the Hidden Costs of U.S. Dependence on Oil

Author:: Steve A. Yetiv
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: United States foreign policy in the Middle East over the last few decades has been controversial and checkered, and Washington has certainly flexed its muscles in the region. However, the question arises as to how aggressive America has been with regard to oil in the region. I distinguish between two perspectives in how America is viewed, which we can simply call the offensive and defensive perspectives, recognizing that there is a continuum of views. From the offensive perspective, America is viewed as having one or more of these goals: steal or own Middle East oil; control Middle East oil in order to undermine Muslims; dominate Middle East oil to advance global hegemony; or exercise “puppet” control over oil producers like Saudi Arabia to coerce them into charging far lower oil prices than markets would warrant.1 By contrast, from the defensive perspective, America chiefly aims to prevent others from threatening oil supplies in a manner that would spike global oil prices and possibly cause a recession or depression. Muslim opinion polls have revealed that oil issues are a broader source of tension in relations between elements of the Muslim world and the West. The U.S. role in oil-related issues feeds into historical, political, and religious perspectives of an imperialist and power-hungry America. In fact, a not uncommon view in the Middle East is that America seeks to exploit, even steal the region’s oil resources, a viewpoint much in line with the offensive perspective described above. I argue that the history of America’s role in the region suggests that this is largely a misconception, and that this misconception is not immaterial. It seriously raises the cost of the use of oil and of American regional intervention. This misconception not only stokes terrorism and anti-Americanism, but also complicates America’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, affects its image among Muslims, and hurts its global leverage insofar as such views become internationally prominent. Indeed, it is almost a maxim in many capitals in the Middle East that close cooperation with Washington carries a domestic political cost. Recall, for example, that the Saudis were initially reluctant to host American forces after Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, even though they felt seriously threatened by Saddam Hussein.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, North America, and Persian Gulf

15. War and the Oil Price Cycle

Author:: Amy Myers and Jaffe Jareer Elass
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Oil has shaped international conflict for decades. According to one estimate, twenty-five to fifty percent of interstate wars between 1973 and 2012 had oil-related linkages. 1 But the cyclical nature of oil’s contribution to global conflict is not well understood. Not only are oil prices cyclical, but the geopolitics of oil are linked inexorably to the same boom and bust price cycle. Military adventurism, proxy wars and regional pathologies in the Middle East expand and contract with the ebb and flow of massive petrodollar accumulations related to the oil price cycle. The massive inflow of petrodollar revenues when oil prices are high creates disposable incomes that can be easily dispensed on regional arms races, especially since oil consuming countries like the United States are incentivized to increase arms sales as a means of solving oil import related trade deficits. Besides transferring wealth from industrialized countries to oil producers in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region and Russia (and stimulating renewed drilling for oil and gas in North America), high global oil and natural gas prices also slow global economic growth and encourage energy conservation. This causes petroleum demand to slow globally, lowering oil prices. Social and political problems in the region reemerge as oil prices recede. Regional governments have fewer resources to spend on restive populations that have become accustomed to generous handouts enabled by high oil prices. Job creation and visible social programs slow, dissatisfaction rises, and the consequences of economic downturns incite support for militants. Ensuing instability forces governments to use newly purchased arms, which ironically begins the cycle yet again, as new conflicts disrupt oil supplies. In this manner, the world experiences perpetuating patterns of military conflict, followed by oil supply crises, and accompanying global financial instability. In effect, the Middle East resource curse has become globalized. The challenges this is presenting on humanitarian, security and economic fronts have become increasingly dangerous. The arms race that has accompanied the rise of oil prices over the 2000s has been no exception and is now all the more complicated due to the violent participation of sub-national radicalized groups that are less susceptible to diplomatic pressures or initiatives. In this emerging geopolitical context, the rise of violent subnational groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda are increasingly putting oil infrastructure at risk, laying the groundwork for a future oil crisis that may prove harder to solve than in the past. As borders and ruling institutions have become contested, so has control of the region’s major oil and gas facilities. Initially an outgrowth of disunity inside Iraq, the conflict over oil and gas facilities is now accelerating across ungoverned territories, with important long-term consequences for global energy markets. Mideast oil and gas production capacity, along with surface facilities, are increasingly being damaged in ways that will make them hard to repair. Export disruptions, which were once sporadic, are becoming a more permanent feature of the civil war landscape. The level of destroyed capacity is currently estimated at about 2 million b/d and rising.2 The longer Mideast conflicts fester, the more that infrastructure could become at risk. There is an additional element to this oil and war story that links structurally with the oil boom and bust cycle. As oil prices recede, along with a decreased demand for oil and accelerating regional conflict, wealthy oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, are often tempted to use large oil production capacity as a strategic asset. They flood the market with increased supplies in order to lower prices, thereby hurting geopolitical rivals. This price war strategy, which was notably present during the prolonged Soviet war in Afghanistan and the eight year Iran-Iraq War, temporarily ameliorates the short run effects of war on surface export facilities through excessive production rates. In addition, it lays the seeds for the future uptick in the oil market, by discouraging investment in future oil productive capacity outside the Middle East when prices are extremely low. In the case of the 2000s, the destruction caused by ISIS on the oil sector in many locations around the Middle East, combined with expected losses in investment in other parts of the world (like Canada’s oil sands and the Arctic due to current low oil prices), may be creating the conditions for a future oil supply crunch. This has major implications on U.S. policy. This article asserts that the United State would be, in light of these circumstances in the Middle East, unwise to dismantle its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as has been suggested on Capitol Hill. It would be similarly unwise for the United States to lose focus on the importance of conservation efforts in the transportation sector which has both national security and climate benefits. The United States would benefit strategically from a reevaluation of its ban on oil exports. Finally, the United States should place a greater emphasis on conflict resolution in troubled states. By resolving internal conflicts over the distribution of oil revenues, the United States can better pave the way for long-term solutions whereby those same revenues can be integrated into national budgets in ways that brings economic prosperity to populations instead of rising military expenditure.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Military Strategy, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, North America, and Persian Gulf

16. The Contagiousness of Regional Conflict: A Middle East Case Study

Author:: Graeme P. Auton and Jacob B. Slobodien
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Several factors contribute to or inhibit the “contagiousness” of regional conflict and irregular warfare, whether conducted at the interstate, extrastate, or intrastate level. Five broad drivers of the diffusion of regional conflict are (1) weak states, (2) anticipated power shifts, regional and domestic, (3) unstable and poorly controlled border regions, (4) large refugee flows, and (5) the religiously-based non-state militant campaign against the state as an organizing principle of world politics. These factors are both endogenous and exogenous to particular states and societies, and must be considered alongside the standard factors considered in international relations literature to be the basis of “dangerous state dyads:” geographic contiguity, absence of alliances, absence of an advanced economy, absence of a democratic polity, and absence of a regionally preponderant power. Two case studies illustrate this argument: the rise of Islamic State, and the awareness of the causes of contagion in regional conflict implicit in Israeli security policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. The Collapse of Saudi Arabia and the Cataclysmic Power Shift in the Middle East

Author:: Elihugh M. Abner
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article points out the cataclysmic power shift that would take place in the event of Saudi Arabia’s descent into political turmoil, and briefly covers some of the catalysts that could bring about such an event. Overall, the oppressive policies towards the Shia minority carried out by the Sunni-dominated Saudi monarchy are detrimental to the country’s national security. The religious disparities in the country have given the monarchy’s enemies—primarily Iran and Russia—a weakness to exploit. This article does not give evidence of any clandestine operations taking place within the Kingdom; however, it gives evidence that Iran and Russia have much to gain and virtually nothing to lose if the country was to spiral into violence like so many others in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Fragile/Failed State, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

18. Too Late for Two States: The Benefits of Pivoting to a One-state Solution for Israel and Palestine

Author:: Sama Habib
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: As a result of the 70-year conflict between Israel and Palestine, the United States should reconsider its support for a two-state solution and instead pivot to a one-state solution. Policymakers have assumed that deep hatreds can only be settled through separation. However, this policy has caused a stalemate and does not take into account fluctuating developments in the region. A more adaptive strategy is necessary. Using theories of ripeness and conflict mediation, this bold flip in policy can pave the path towards lasting peace. Exercising the instability created from Syria’s civil war, the United States. can ripen the Israel-Palestine conflict by exposing the mutual security benefits gained from uniting against a common enemy: ISIS. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria offers the parties a unique opportunity for peace as a rallying cause. As a close ally of Israel, the United States is in the ideal position to lead mediations centering around talks of permanent ceasefires, economic integration, and eventually political power sharing of a unified, binational state. In conjunction with Qatar acting as the Arab broker for Palestine, the United States should leverage its power to get the parties to the table in order to create the framework for a pocket of peace in an ever-rickety Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Political Power Sharing, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

19. Exclusion and Violence in Post-2003 Iraq

Author:: Yasir Kuoti
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This paper examines the origins of political violence in Iraq. It argues that, in the wake of the democratic transition process in from 2004 to 2005, Iraqi exiles, who were chiefly Shiite Muslims and Kurds appointed by Paul Bremer, Iraq’s U.S. civilian administrator, moved to write a constitution and set up a political system that deliberately marginalized minorities. Since then, the Sunni minority began and continues to engage in or support violence against the state. It suggests that violence and instability in Iraq are to be understood in terms of local contexts of meaning, notably the nature of struggle for political power.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Political Power Sharing, and Violence
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

20. Divesting From Sectarianism: Reimagining Relations Between Iran And The Arab Gulf States

Author:: Hamada D. Zahawi and Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Until recently, Iran has been economically isolated by way of sanctions, preempting investment opportunities with states allied with the United States. However, the Obama administration’s recent effort towards economic normalization with Iran affords it with unprecedented commercial possibilities, and per the focus of this article, legalized commercial enterprising within Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States—across sectarian tensions and fault lines. From both a legal and practical prism, this article investigates the recent lifting of sanctions, which opens the door for Iran’s investment within neighboring states including the GCC. Subsequently, it analyzes how commercial investment and the reciprocal advancement of economic interests offers a promising pathway toward eroding political standoffs, economic inequities, and the politicization of sectarianism. In closing, the article addresses salient challenges that may hinder the potential of this economic rapprochement, and ways forward.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, and Investment
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Gulf Nations

21. Schrödinger’s Kurds: Transnational Kurdish Geopolitics In The Age Of Shifting Borders

Author:: H. Akin Unver
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: As the Middle East goes through one of its most historic, yet painful episodes, the fate of the region’s Kurds have drawn substantial interest. Transnational Kurdish awakening—both political and armed—has attracted unprecedented global interest as individual Kurdish minorities across four countries, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, have begun to shake their respective political status quo in various ways. It is in Syria that the Kurds have made perhaps their largest impact, largely owing to the intensification of the civil war and the breakdown of state authority along Kurdish-dominated northern borderlands. However, in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran too, Kurds are searching for a new status quo, using multiple and sometimes mutually defeating methods. This article looks at the future of the Kurds in the Middle East through a geopolitical approach. It begins with an exposition of the Kurds’ geographical history and politics, emphasizing the natural anchor provided by the Taurus and Zagros mountains. That anchor, history tells us, has both rendered the Kurds extremely resilient to systemic changes to larger states in their environment, and also provided hindrance to the materialization of a unified Kurdish political will. Then, the article assesses the theoretical relationship between weak states and strong non-states, and examines why the weakening of state authority in Syria has created a spillover effect on all Kurds in its neighborhood. In addition to discussing classical geopolitics, the article also reflects upon demography, tribalism, Islam, and socialism as additional variables that add and expand the debate of Kurdish geopolitics. The article also takes a big-data approach to Kurdish geopolitics by introducing a new geopolitical research methodology, using large-volume and rapid-processed entity extraction and recognition algorithms to convert data into heat maps that reveal the general pattern of Kurdish geopolitics in transition across four host countries.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Borders, and Translation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

22. Youth, Peace, And Security: A New Agenda for the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Margaret Williams
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The important role of young people in building peace and challenging violent extremism is gaining recognition within the international community. The United Nations Security Resolution on Youth, Peace, and Security (SCR 2250), passed in December 2015, is evidence of this trend. It represents a shift from the dichotomy of youth as either perpetrators or victims of violence to a perspective in which youth are viewed as agents of positive change and peace. In moving forward with this resolution and similarly reflective and supportive policy, one of the greatest challenges for the Middle East and North Africa will be the current geopolitical context and obstacles to opportunity. In a region fraught with conflict, stemming from domestic and foreign policies, as well as a history of unrepresentative and repressive governance systems, leaders have often sought to maintain the status quo. This is a problem in a region where more than 30 percent of the population is between 15 and 29 years of age, and are increasingly frustrated with and stymied by a lack of meaningful political space—leading to lost faith in political systems.1 In such a setting, regional policymakers must be challenged to meaningfully incorporate young people into decisionmaking processes, to ensure that peacebuilding programs target young people early on in their development, to avoid the securitization of youth in the development and implementation of national and local policies, and to address the underlying social, economic, and political grievances that often drive extremism and impact young people’s relationships with their communities and states.
Topic:: Security, Youth, Peace, and Young Adults
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

23. A National Strategic Framework for Countering Violent Extremism in Jordan

Author:: Ghimar Deeb, Jeffrey Woodham, Mia Chin, and Sawsan Gharaibeh
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Following the uprisings in the Arab world, the region has lurched into a period of massive change and instability. An unfortunate consequence of this change has been the rise and proliferation of militant groups such as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham) and Jubhat al-Nusra in Iraq and Syria. These militant groups successfully recruit members from the region and beyond, fueling conflict in countries that have witnessed unrest, such as Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Although Jordan has long been seen as a regional hub of stability and security, especially by its Western allies, it increasingly exhibits symptoms of the long-standing pressures exerted upon it by the surrounding conflicts, resulting refugee crises, and pre-existing domestic challenges. Jordan’s hypothetical fall into instability could have catastrophic consequences for the region, exacerbating the crises in Syria and Iraq, empowering ISIS and other militant groups, and threatening regional and global security. In response, this article offers a general framework for the expansion of the country’s nascent Counter Violent Extremism (CVE) program, including both preventative and remedial measures. Beginning with an overview of the processes of radicalization and de-radicalization, this article proceeds with a brief discussion of Jordan’s current situation before synthesizing scholarly articles and analyses of other CVE programs in order to establish a framework to guide Jordan’s developing CVE interventions.
Topic:: Terrorism, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

24. Congo: No Peace Without Women

Author:: Denis Mukwege
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 2012, a Congolese doctor stood before the world's leaders at the United Nations General Assembly and denounced the mass rapes of women and girls in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the impunity enjoyed by those responsible. Dr. Mukwege said he was ashamed of the international community's failure to stop these atrocities. A month later, he was attacked in his residence in Bakavu, DRC, and was forced into exile. Dr. Mukwege, who was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 and in 2013, returned to the Congo earlier this year in January to resume his work at the Panzi Hospital. There, he treats victims of sexual violence in a country ripped apart by sixteen years of conflict. According to the UN, "Sexual violence in the Congo is the worst in the world." Around 500,000 women have been raped in the country since 1996. Dr. Mukwege shared his insights with the Journal about the Congolese crisis and the role of women in conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Women, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Congo

25. Poverty and Inequality in Latin America: A Story of Two Decades

Author:: Guillermo Cruces and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Latin American countries have succeeded in reducing poverty and income inequality over the last decade thanks in part to both economic growth and deliberate social policy measures. This study provides an overview of the available evidence of the changes in income distribution that have occurred in Latin America over the past two decades and their causes. While some attribute the improvements in distribution to changes in the international economy and the positive trend in the Latin American countries' terms of trade, others highlight the influence of changes in public policy. Both of these two sets of factors may have played an important role and may have interacted with one another in various ways.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Latin America

26. A Changing Development Strategy

Author:: Albert Fishlow
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Latin America experienced high rates of growth in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Will the region-increasingly split into Atlantic and Pacific countries with different policies-be able to continue this pace into the future? That will depend upon high rates of investment, regulatory stability, and openness to technological advancement to sustain gains in productivity and permit continued improvements in income distribution.
Political Geography:: America

27. The Transformation of Security in Latin America: A Cause for Common Action

Author:: Gabriel Marcella
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a transformation of security in Latin America. Latin American countries have been moving toward the concepts of multidimensional security and security of the individual and society, and away from the classical understanding of the security dilemma posed by an external threat to the state. Illegal narcotics, the proliferation of guns, and other transnational threats, combined with undergoverned space and the weak state syndrome, generated an extraordinary crime wave, which gives the region the highest murder rate in the world. Moreover, crime imposes a heavy cost on economic growth and democratic governance. This insecurity crosses international borders, and the institutions of public security—police, military, and judicial systems—are hard pressed to meet the challenge. The privatization of security is a symptom of the problem and a potential source of abuse. The United States shares responsibility for the violence due to U.S. demand for illegal drugs and the fact that it is a supplier of arms to Latin America. At the same time, there is a growing consensus in support of common action, as evidenced by the international coalition that is operating under Operation Martillo—the antinarcotics effort in the Caribbean and Central America. Moreover, a number of Latin American countries contribute to international peace operations. Accordingly, the new strategic consensus among Latin American countries should be a cause for common action.
Topic:: Cold War
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

28. Trade and Trade Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends, Emerging Challenges

Author:: Osvaldo Rosales and Sebastián Herreros
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article presents a brief characterization of Latin America and the Caribbean's foreign trade, as well as its trade integration efforts. The first section examines the region's recent trade performance in terms of share in world trade, trade openness, main partners, most dynamic sectors, and export concentration. Particular emphasis is placed on the dynamics of the region's foreign trade in the past decade, including the growing importance of trade with China and its implications. The second section focuses on the recent evolution of intra-regional trade and of regional economic integration initiatives. The third section deals with trade negotiations with extra-regional partners. The fourth and final section outlines some policy challenges the region faces to increase the contribution of trade to its development prospects.
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, and Caribbean

29. The Rise of Latin America : Reordering Regional Security in Latin America

Author:: Harold Trinkunas
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In the wake of the Cold War, regional democratization and economic liberalization were supposed to usher in an opportunity to build a common hemispheric security agenda, designed to unite the United States and Latin America in collaboration against the "new" security threats posed by organized crime and violent nonstate actors. Two decades later, the threats remain much the same, yet the hemispheric security agenda has fragmented, replaced in part by projects designed to build specifically South American regional institutions. As some scholars predicted, heterogeneous threat perceptions across the region, differences over democratization, and tensions over the effects of free trade and market liberalization have confounded the effort to build a hemispheric security agenda. Yet the efforts by former President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela to radically transform the regional security order by building a Bolivarian alliance of states as an explicit counterweight to U.S. power have also fallen short. Instead, Brazil's ascent as a global economic power and the growing prosperity of the region as a whole has created an opportunity for Brazil to organize new mid-range political institutions, embodied in the Union of South American States (UNASUR), that exclude the United States yet pursue a consensual security agenda. This emerging regional order is designed by Brazil to secure its leadership in South America and allow it to choose when and where to involve the United States in managing regional crises. Yet, Brazil is finding that the very obstacles that confounded hemispheric security collaboration after the Cold War still endure in South America, limiting the effectiveness of the emerging regional security order.
Topic:: Security and Cold War
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

30. China's Use of the Military Instrument in Latin America: Not Yet the Biggest Stick

Author:: Cynthia Watson
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: China's involvement in Latin America has grown steadily over the past decade but there are a number of constraints on the role of the People's Liberation Army that prevents it from becoming the most important mechanism in expanding China's role in Latin America. This paper discusses those constraints and the methods China's military has used to engage with Latin America in the twenty-first century.
Political Geography:: China and Latin America

31. The Rise of Latin America: A Changing Mexico

Author:: Andrew Selee
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Mexico has undergone major changes over the past two decades, as its political system shifted from one dominated by a single official party to a highly competitive democracy, and its economy opened up dramatically to global competition. These changes have produced significant dislocations in Mexican society, including high out-migration and a spiral of drug-trafficking related violence. However, signs are that Mexico has now set the foundations for future success. Average income has grown significantly, violence is plateauing, and out-migration has dropped dramatically. There are potential pitfalls ahead, but the country's future looks far brighter today than it did a decade or two ago. If Mexico continues to grow and deepen its democratic process, these changes will have a profound effect on the United States, its neighbor to the north, as well.
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

32. The Rise of Latin America: New Directions for a More Prosperous Brazil

Author:: Thomas J. Trebat
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article examines whether increasing global confidence in Brazil is well founded and, if so, what the implications might be for the global community. Landmark political, economic, and social achievements in contemporary Brazil are reviewed as well as the obstacles to raise human welfare to developed country standards within the next decade. The paper concludes that Brazil's growing influence in the global community is based on sound empirical evidence, a diverse economy, and an emerging society; it is not the result of passing good fortune. At the same time, the crushing legacy of past problems in areas that are vital to human welfare, including the education system and deficiencies in innovation and technological advance, continues to weigh heavily. Depending on how well its leadership deals with the legacy of the past, Brazil could become a more important actor in the international community over the next ten years. Brazil's rising use of "soft power" will contribute to addressing global issues such as clean forms of energy, sustainability, food security, and social inclusion. Even for this possibility alone, Brazil merits much close attention from a global community not yet fully aware of Brazil's transformation.
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

33. The Rise of Latin America: Will Latin America Miss U.S. Hegemony?

Author:: Christopher Sabatini
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: For decades, the standard framework for describing and understanding U.S.-Latin American relations has been the overwhelming hegemonic power of the “colossus of the north.” Now, though, with the rise of regional powers like Brazil, the importance of new emerging economies like China, and the diversity of political and economic models in the region, policymakers and observers are beginning to discuss the decline of U.S. power in the region. Whether real or perceived, the effects of waning U.S. influence are already shaping countries' calculations in their domestic and foreign policies and the formation of multilateral alliances. What are the implications of the perceived decline of U.S. hegemony for Latin America? This article explores the possible facets of the decline of U.S. influence in the region. It will start by examining whether, indeed, the United States' ability to shape outcomes or impose its preferences in the region has diminished or shifted in how it must conduct diplomacy. Second, it will examine the possible outcomes of diminished influence. Finally, this article will consider the times when there have been a convergence of values and interest between the United States and governments in the region, and the likely effect that diminished U.S. power will have on areas of common interest: democracy, human rights, and the peaceful resolution of intra-regional conflicts.
Topic:: Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, and Latin America

34. The Rise of Latin America : Public Innovation for Good Governance

Author:: Ania Calderón and Sergio Fajardo
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The vision of an academic-turned-politician has brought a stream of creativity to local public administration in Colombia. It is said that disruptive innovation occurs at the edge of disciplines. And Sergio Fajardo, mathematician and former journalist, has managed to leverage such cross-discipline dialogues and energize communities to engage with public planning objectives. As mayor of Medellín in Colombia from 2004 to 2007, he "introduced transparency fairs, broke clientelistic political networks, raised tax receipts, improved public services, established civic pacts and restored citizens' sense of hope," and the Inter-American Development Bank recognized the city as an exemplary case of good public administration in Latin America. Furthermore, Medellín was recently named the world's most innovative city in a competition organized by the non-profit Urban Land Institute. In the following interview with Ania Calderón of the Journal, Dr. Fajardo highlights the importance of building trust in society to face the public management challenges of developing countries in Latin America and explains how, as governor of the state of Antioquia, the scale of impact he now faces at a regional versus local level can be tackled with the same mission, but carried under a different leadership role.
Political Geography:: Europe, Colombia, and Latin America

35. The Rise of Latin America: Reforming, Fast and Slow

Author:: Madeline K. B. Ross
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: After Neoliberalism? The Left and Economic Reforms in Latin America Gustavo A. Flores-Macías (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), 261 pages.
Political Geography:: New York and Latin America

36. The Rise of Latin America: A Tale of Two Continents

Author:: Devi Nampiaparampil
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Latin Lessons: How South America Stopped Listening to the United States and Started Prospering Hal Weitzman(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley Sons, 2012), 260 pages.
Topic:: Cold War and War on Drugs
Political Geography:: United States, South America, and Latin America

37. Calderón's War

Author:: Nathaniel Parish Flannery
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In December 2006, Felipe Calderón took over as Mexico's new president and made a bold decision to directly confront the drug trafficking organizations that had steadily gained power over the course of his predecessors' terms in office. He started by sending troops into his home state of Michoacán, and over the next six years Mexico's government succeeded in pushing drug-ferrying planes off its airstrips and into airfields in Guatemala and Honduras. Over the course of "Calderón's War" Mexican soldiers captured and killed dozens of high profile cartel leaders. But after more than half a decade of continuous anti-cartel operations, many of the traditional strongholds of the country's drug trafficking organizations have experienced a worrisome deterioration in security. For instance, in the state of Guerrero, as cartel leaders such as the Beltran Leyva brothers and La Barbie were taken down, a destabilizing sequence of inter-cartel competition has led to a string of disturbing violent incidents as well as complaints about robbery and extortion. Over the course of Calderón's presidency it became clear that without complementary improvements in local policing efforts, the anti-cartel strategy would not be able to bring Mexico the long-term security and stability that citizens demand. Fighting the drug cartels is not enough. Effective security policy requires the police to help protect ordinary citizens from "unorganized" crimes such as theft, carjacking, and extortion.
Topic:: Security and War
Political Geography:: Mexico

38. Renewable Energy in Chile: Barriers and the Role of Public Policy

Author:: Sophie von Hatzfeldt
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Chile has a dire need as well as a vast potential to expand renewable energy production and the government has recently introduced regulatory reforms and incentives to facilitate their development. Nevertheless, the governance structure of the electricity sector poses significant barriers to the attainment of national energy aims. Actors from the state, private sector, as well as civil society must tackle the main constraints to provide a cohesive and targeted policy response to the issue.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Latin America

39. Table of Contents

Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Singapore

40. Editor's Foward

Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In its sixty-five-year history, the Journal of International Affairs has explored some of the most important transformations of the postwar world: from the U.S. occupation of Germany and Japan to the collapse of the Soviet Union, from democratization and development to the explosion of global trade. The unprecedented—and accelerating—growth of cities today will prove to be no less important. Mass urbanization will have a transformative effect on the political, economic and social fabrics of societies around the world. The demographic shift from rural to urban areas promises to release untapped human potential—creative and productive energies that will emerge from the increased exchange of ideas and capital.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Germany

41. Two Tales of a City

Author:: Ethan Wagner
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: “As in the pseudoscience of bloodletting, just so in the pseudoscience of city rebuilding and planning,” wrote Jane Jacobs in The Death and Life of Great American Cities , her scholarly assault on the field of city planning. An iconoclast, Jacobs intended the volume as nothing less than an indictment of the prevailing urban orthodoxy. “Years of learning and a plethora of subtle and complicated dogma have arisen on a foundation of nonsense,” she wrote. In painstaking detail, Jacobs refutes the titans of city planning whose ideas dominated her era: Daniel Burnham, Lewis Mumford, Le Corbusier and Robert Moses, among others. In time, she was hailed as a pioneer in urban thought and a champion of those who see cities as living communities, not mere lines on a map. Though the faceless high-rises she disdained still tower over many metropolises, her vision has become required reading for urban planners everywhere, and her ideas form the basis of some of the most successful efforts to revitalize life in the American city over the past twenty-five years.
Political Geography:: America

42. The Urban Battleground: Explaining Conflict in Global Cities

Author:: Samantha Hammer
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: When Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in the town of Sidi Bouzid in December 2010, people across the Arab world identified with him, a person trying to make a decent life for himself but hobbled by a repressive government. As Tunisia erupted into a successful revolution, citizens throughout the Middle East and North Africa were inspired to follow. Over the course of the uprisings, images of protesters fiercely battling government forces in reclaimed city squares exemplified the importance of urban spaces as arenas for power struggles that can redefine national sovereignty.
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

43. Deciphering the Linkages between Organized Crime and Transnational Crime

Author:: Jay S. Albanese
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Over the last twenty years, traditional depictions of organized crime as an ethnic, neighborhood phenomenon have given way to discoveries of emerging transnational criminal enterprises involving trafficking, fraud, and corruption on an international scale. The available evidence suggests that these are not two distinct types of criminal conduct. Instead they are overlapping in nature in terms of the crimes committed, the offenders involved, and in how criminal opportunities are exploited for profit. This article analyzes the similarities and differences between organized crime and transnational crime, concluding that they are in fact manifestations of the same underlying conduct and the same pool of criminal offenders. They involve exploitation of similar criminal opportunities, which have changed in form over time. Recommendations for more effective international prevention and responses are made in the context of assessing the remarkable transnational organized crime control efforts of the last decade.

44. The Diverse Facilitators of Counterfeiting: A Regional Perspective

Author:: Louise I. Shelley
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Counterfeits may be the least policed form of transnational crime, although the profits from their sale total in the billions of dollars annually. The counterfeits traded by transnational criminals can be subdivided into two categories: those that merely represent copyright infringement and those that cause harm to life and society. In the first category are such counterfeits as clothing, purses, other consumer goods, and DVDs and other forms of intellectual property. In the second category are counterfeit pharmaceuticals, food, wine, cigarettes, and spare parts. Both forms of counterfeit, however, can be exploited by terrorists because of the low risk and high profits associated with this commerce that makes this trade more dangerous. The article will focus on the actors associated with this illicit trade, as well as the supply, the demand, and the limited law enforcement response. Particular focus will be paid to the counterfeits that cause harm to human life.

45. States, Frauds, and the Threat of Transnational Organized Crime

Author:: Michael Levi
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Fraud and corruption are very serious threats to some states and are harmful to all; however, this threat is seldom connected to transnational organized crime (TOC). We cannot examine social problems in a vacuum; we have to construct images of threats through the lens of the social and political threats posed by different aspects of crime and its organization. Harm and threat are not just about their economic cost, but also about how different phenomena hurt our confidence that we can control our surroundings and our future expectations. This anxiety can affect entities such as nation states or even trans-state entities such as “Ummah Wahidah”—the Islamic global community. The aim of this article is threefold: to disentangle the real and imagined threats of fraud, detail the involvement of transnational organized crime groups in fraud, and determine who or what can be reasonably described as threatened by these phenomena. This article rejects the implicit binary view that states are either threatened or not threatened, referring rather to a scale of threat to both states and different sectors within the state. This article critiques the value of Moisés Naím's concept of 'mafia state' to explaining and understanding fraud.
Topic:: Islam

46. Central American Gangs: Changing Nature and New Partners

Author:: Douglas Farah
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article will examine the changing roles of Central American gangs within the drug trafficking structures, particularly the Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), operating in the region. This will include the emerging political role of the gangs (Mara Salvatrucha or MS-13 as well as Barrio 18), the negotiations between the gangs and Mexican DTOs for joint operational capacity, the interactions between the two sides, and the significant repercussions all this will likely have across the region as the gangs become both better financed and more politically aware and active. This article is based on field research in San Salvador, where the author was able to spend time with some members of the MS-13. It is also informed by his examination of the truce between the gangs and the Salvadoran government, as well as the talks between the gangs and the Sinaloa cartel.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: America and Mexico

47. The Twenty-first Century Expansion of the Transnational Drug Trade in Africa

Author:: Ashley Neese Bybee
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In the last decade, West Africa emerged as a major transit hub for Latin American Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) transporting cocaine to Western Europe. Since that time, there has been cause for hope and despair. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and an array of international donors have made great strides in acknowledging the growing problem of drug trafficking and have implemented practical measures to stem this flow. All the while, the fears of many observers have been confirmed as the insidious effects of the drug trade have begun to take effect in many West African states. Consumption is on the rise and narco-corruption now undermines the rule of law and legitimate economic growth necessary for development and stability. One of the most alarming trends that place Africa and Africans on the radar of policy makers, law enforcement, and researchers alike is the number of new fronts on which the illicit drug trade is growing. Its geographic expansion beyond the relatively confined region of West Africa is now endangering East and Southern Africa. The arrival of new drugs to the region—heroin and Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS, commonly referred to as synthetic drugs)—has been accompanied by the discovery of local manufacturing facilities to process them. Lastly, the growing level of involvement by Africans—who initially served as facilitators but now appear to be taking a more proactive role—raises concerns that a new generation of African DTOs is rising in the ranks. This paper examines how each of these trends are contributing to the twenty-first century expansion of the drug trade in Africa and summarizes some of the impacts they are having on the states and their populations.
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe

48. Fighting Transnational Environmental Crime

Author:: Lorraine Elliott
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Transnational environmental crime (TEC) is often not taken seriously within the broader policy and enforcement community. It is one of the fastest growing areas of cross-border criminal enterprise involving high profits and low risk for those involved in timber trafficking, wildlife smuggling, the black market in ozone-depleting substances, and the illegal trade in hazardous and toxic waste. TEC is increasingly characterized by commodity-specific smuggling networks, the intrusion of criminal groups involved in other forms of illegal trade and, in some cases, politically motivated organizations for whom this generates income to support other activities. But unlike other forms of transnational crime, there is no international treaty to prevent, suppress, and punish the kinds of trafficking and smuggling that constitute transnational environmental crime. The global regulatory and enforcement community has therefore developed innovative collaborative mechanisms to meet both the criminal and environmental challenges associated with this increasingly serious form of cross-border crime. Despite their successes, their efforts remain under-resourced. This article examines the challenges of TEC and efforts to respond to those challenges in the face of uncertain resources and limited awareness.
Topic:: Environment

49. Corporate Criminal Liability: Article 10 of the Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime

Author:: Mohamed Mattar
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNCTOC) establishes criminal liability of the corporation as a legal entity in addition to the individual liability of persons who may be acting on behalf of the corporation. The purpose of this article is to address corporate criminal liability for illicit business practices that may be committed by a corporation in violation of international human rights law. This article will discuss corporate criminal liability under international conventional law and will discuss the extent to which U.S. domestic laws recognize corporate criminal liability. The article will highlight new trends in international law related to corporate liability, as well as instances where the legitimacy of corporate liability has been legally denied. Using Article 10 and domestic precedent, this article will argue that the role corporations play in international trade and development warrants their accountability and responsibility once they are involved in illicit business practices.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

50. International Narcotics Law Enforcement: A Study in Irrationality

Author:: Frank G. Madsen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This year sees the celebration of the first century of international legal provisions against the illicit production and trade of narcotics substances. Accordingly, this is an appropriate moment to evaluate the results obtained. The following essay considers how the international prohibition regime created the crime of drug trafficking. The ensuing function of denied demand is the inescapable basis for the development of organized crime. Second, costs of the regime are critically assessed. The former include institutional costs of law enforcement and of the incarceration of individuals sentenced for drug trafficking and related offences, e.g., violence and financial crimes. The indirect costs are difficult to gauge and impossible to monetize. They include the immense suffering caused by drug trafficking as well as the deterioration of public services due to corruption. The present situation on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border is sufficiently eloquent evidence. Also, narcotics legislation leads to racial tension since the incarceration rates for non-whites for these offences is considerably higher than for whites in the United State and the United Kingdom. Third, political premises are briefly analyzed, namely the implementation of narcotics liaison offices in foreign jurisdictions and the linking of foreign aid and trade privileges to a certification of trade partners' adherence to U.S. antinarcotic drugs law enforcement. One might claim, somewhat counterintuitively, that decriminalization of drug trafficking is not necessary. Drug trafficking has already been decriminalized de facto, if not de jure, by the sheer, constant saturation of the market place.
Topic:: International Law
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS