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302. The Rise and Fall of Barrio Adentro
- Author:
- Amy Cooper and Oscar Feo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With Hugo Chávez’s celebrated health care project progressively in ruins, the pandemic underlines the need to rebuild.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
303. Breaking Through for LGBTQI Rights
- Author:
- Daniel Fermín, Paula Sevilla Núñez, and Yendri Velásquez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Movements fighting homophobia and transphobia in Venezuela offer an example of organizing that successfully joins forces across ideological and partisan lines.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Ideology, LGBT+, Homophobia, and Transphobia
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
304. “I Left Venezuela to Defend the Constitution”: An Interview with Luisa Ortega Díaz
- Author:
- John Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The former Attorney General discusses how her country has changed since Chávez and what is required to restore democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Interview, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
305. Fact Checking Power, April 11, 2002 and Beyond
- Author:
- David Smilde
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a fraught conflict with missteps and misinformation on both sides, empirically informed analysis offers one tool to cut through the noise.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Conflict, Protests, Misinformation, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
306. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
307. An Independent Union Wins Landslide Victory Among MexicanGM Workers
- Author:
- Dan DiMaggio and Luis Feliz Leon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The vote by auto workers in Guanajuato to replace the previous employee-friendly union with the National Auto Workers Union in early February is a breakthrough for labor rights.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Industry, Labor Rights, Workforce, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
308. Venezuela's Missing Center
- Author:
- Francisco Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With the country caught in a pitched winner-take-all contest, it is unsurprising that voters feel apathetic. Solutions must come from the space between the extremes.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Centrism
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
309. The Feminist Revolution That Wasn't
- Author:
- Yoletty Bracho and Marisela Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Chavismo co-opted women’s rights rhetoric but failed to deliver on core feminist demands. For grassroots movements, abortion access remains a key struggle.
- Topic:
- Politics, Women, Feminism, Abortion, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
310. Displaced and Insecure: Understanding the Exodus and Its Effects
- Author:
- María Isabel Puerta Riera
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From brain drain to mental health issues, the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans has far-reaching impacts at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Migration, Brain Drain, Displacement, and Mental Health
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
311. Chavismo, Student Movements, and the Future of the Left
- Author:
- Fabrice Andreani and Damian Alifa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Partisan polarization wiped out autonomous stances within Venezuela’s universities for more than 15years. Rebuilding a pluralist Left from the grassroots is key to reclaiming combative struggles.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Leftist Politics, Students, Polarization, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
312. Navigating Alternate Realities
- Author:
- Alexander Main
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- When political tensions run high and misinformation proliferates, there’s no better way to get a clear view than with your own eyes.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Protests, Misinformation, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
313. Making the Dominican Republic Great Again?
- Author:
- Lorgia García-Peña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Dominican government has always aligned itself with white supremacism, following the United States’ lead on immigration policies towards Haitians.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Border Control, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and United States of America
314. The Devastating Costs of Puerto Rico’s Solar “Farms”
- Author:
- Ruth Santiago, Hilda Lloréns, and Catalina de Onís
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The road to achieving sustainable energy in Puerto Rico should not be paved by bulldozing agricultural lands and coastal plains.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Solar Power, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Puerto Rico
315. Remembering María Elena Moyano: 30 Years Later
- Author:
- Néstor David Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Decades after her shocking murder, the Afro-Peruvian activist and organizer’s legacy for affirming life and collective dignity is more relevant than ever.
- Topic:
- Assassination, Activism, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
316. Environmental Justice in the Age of Unnatural Disaster
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The recent mudslides in Petrópolis are just the latest examples of the issues of unequal access to land and precarious housing in Brazil.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Inequality, Justice, Land, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
317. Colombia Joins the Green Wave
- Author:
- David Díaz Arias and Joshua Collins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In a historic win for reproductive rights, Colombia’s highest court strikes down law that made abortion a crime.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Courts, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
318. Why Haiti Advocacy Needs New Strategies
- Author:
- Mark Schuller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the Biden administration continues to ignore Haitian civil society proposals for a pathway out of crisis, confronting white supremacy across borders is essential.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Borders, Crisis Management, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
319. Cooking Revolutions in the Community Pot
- Author:
- Virginia Tognola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Argentina, culinary cooperatives provide food and support for vulnerable communities.
- Topic:
- Food, Community, Community Engagement, and Cooperatives
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
320. For Venezuelans in Colombia, the Long Path to Legal Residency
- Author:
- Liza Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although providing the 10-year residence permits promised last year has been a complicated process, many maintain hope for a more stable future.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Borders, Domestic Policy, and Social Stability
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
321. U.S. Immigration Detention System: “A Living Hell”
- Author:
- Joseph Nevins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A historical and contemporary look at migrant incarceration and the detainees pushing for change inside and beyond the system.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, Border Control, and Detention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
322. Guatemala on Trial: Maya Land Rights Case Reaches International Court
- Author:
- María Inés Taracena
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a decades-long fight against transnational mining interests and state repression, the community’s case could set a new precedent for Indigenous land and resource rights.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Courts, Mining, Land Rights, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
323. WILL NATO MILITARY EXERCISES DETER RUSSIAN EXPANSION?
- Author:
- Brian Blankenship
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- As concerns that Russia might try to seize additional territory from Ukraine have mounted in recent weeks, policymakers in the United States and NATO have considered how best to shore up the alliance and discourage a Russian offensive. These efforts are hardly new. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NATO alliance has attempted to dissuade Russia from further attempts to encroach on the territory of neighboring countries. These attempts have included the creation of a “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” capable of deploying to crisis areas within 72 hours, as well as the “Enhanced Forward Presence” consisting of four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on a rotational basis. Additionally, NATO members have conducted a variety of military exercises with members around the alliance’s eastern flank, as well as some with Ukraine itself.
- Topic:
- NATO, Deterrence, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States
324. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?
- Author:
- Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
- Topic:
- Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
325. WILL COOPERATION BETWEEN THE WORLD BANK AND CHINA LAST?
- Author:
- Richard Clark
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- International development organizations, which provide concessional loans and grants to help finance developing countries, often overlap with one another, performing similar tasks in similar countries. For instance, dozens of such organizations have offered COVID-19 relief to developing country member states. In one case, the World Bank approved a $95 million package for Uzbekistan to strengthen its medical systems in April 2020. The Asian Development Bank pledged another $1.1 billion to Uzbekistan over the last two years, and the World Health Organization doled out another $10 million in personal protective and laboratory equipment. Overall, 28 international organizations provide development assistance today.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, World Bank, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
326. A WIDENING RIFT BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE SAHEL
- Author:
- Silvia D'Amato
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Two weeks ago, the Malian military junta, in power after a coup in May 2021, proposed to hold elections in December 2025 instead of this month as promised. The move was widely condemned. West Africa’s main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), immediately imposed new sanctions while the French Minister of Defense Florence Parly floated the possibility of reviewing the French and European military engagement in the country. The French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian openly called the junta “illegitimate”. In response, on January 31 Malian authorities gave 72 hours to the French Ambassador in Bamako to leave the country, an unprecedented diplomatic decision. The European Union (EU) also took a firm stance by imposing targeted sanctions against 5 members of the junta, including Prime Minister Choguel Maïga. The current querelle is arguably only the latest in an ongoing dynamic of political fragmentation in the cooperation between European and regional actors in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Sahel
327. ARE RUSSIA’S THREATS CREDIBLE?
- Author:
- Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia. How credible is the Russian threat?
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Crisis Management, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
328. HOW GERMANY’S COALITION CHANGE CONTRIBUTED TO PUTIN’S STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION IN UKRAINE
- Author:
- Debra Leiter and Rebecca Best
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin almost certainly failed to anticipate that Germany would be willing to sacrifice the benefits of cheaper Russian gas to punish Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indefinitely paused certification of the completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline to “reassess” the situation. While the move didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine—by that point Putin already had too much skin in the game to risk the loss of face from backing down—it has substantially raised the costs for Russia. Why did Germany do this, and why didn’t Putin see it coming?
- Topic:
- NATO, Oil, War, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
329. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
330. WILL NATO FIGHT RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE? THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX SAYS NO
- Author:
- Andrew Kydd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Many observers of the current war between Russia and Ukraine have expressed concern that NATO support for Ukraine could escalate the conflict to a direct major conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that from there it could easily escalate to a nuclear war. A group of foreign policy experts have proposed that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, while other analysts have decried the escalatory potential of such a move. In a recent poll of international relations scholars, 40 percent thought a no-fly zone would lead to large-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia and 13 percent thought it could lead to nuclear war.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, War, Escalation, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
331. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?
- Author:
- Michael Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe
332. WHY A SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE REMAINS OUT OF REACH
- Author:
- Valerie Sticher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion and unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine show the limits of diplomacy. Despite warning of an impending invasion, efforts to stop the war failed. And despite the high costs on all sides, efforts to stop this horrific war remain elusive. Why is this the case?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
333. HOW HISTORICAL ANALOGIES WOKE UP THE WEST
- Author:
- Eric Mosinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Policymakers, activists, and ordinary people often make analogies between past and present, for example, by labeling 9/11 “the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.” In doing so, people hope to better understand surprising events and develop a plan of action for themselves and others. Vladimir Putin employed historical analogies to justify his invasion of Ukraine, while Western leaders drew on their own understanding of World War II history to mobilize a surprisingly muscular response to Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- War, History, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
334. WHY OFFSHORE FINANCE LIMITS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
- Author:
- Menevis Cilizoglu and Chelsea Estancona
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including more than 50 oligarchs close to Putin and their families. These measures include the freezing of assets in international banks, seizure of yachts, private jets, and luxury real estate, and travel bans. Western policymakers hope that targeting a wide network of Russian political and economic elites, including oil executives, steel tycoons, media moguls and high-level intelligence officers will isolate Putin and pressure him to reverse course. The million-dollar question is, can these targeted measures actually hurt Russian oligarchs, let alone pressure Putin?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Sanctions, Offshore Finance, and Shell Companies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America
335. Chinese Surveillance Devices: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You
- Author:
- Jayson Browder, Valerie Shen, and Mike Sexton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government conducts cyber espionage against the US on an unprecedented scale. Senior US intelligence officials have warned the “Internet of Things” is a US counterintelligence and cybersecurity vulnerability. Tens of billions of connected physical devices from Chinese-made webcams to “smart” appliances could be exploited at scale by the Chinese intelligence services. In 2016, the malware “Mirai” was able to weaponize more than half a million devices in a Denial-of-Service attack causing a massive East Coast Internet outage. Unaddressed, these threats will only increase as China exports surveillance devices around the world.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
336. Three Reasons Why CHIPS-plus is a Big Win for US National Security
- Author:
- Tom Klein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- On August 9th, 2022, President Biden signed vital bipartisan legislation to compete with China. H.R. 4346, called the CHIPS and Science Act or “CHIPS-plus,” would pave the way for nearly $280 billion in incentives to boost US-based chip manufacturing, scientific research, technology standards setting, and STEM education. These initiatives directly protect our immediate security vulnerabilities in the US military and support our long-term national security competition with China by promoting democratic norms and spurring critical defense innovations.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and CHIPS
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
337. A Saudi-Pakistani Reset: Business as Usual?
- Author:
- Joshua Albin Cheyaden
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are back on track,” declared ʿAli ʿAwadh ʿAsseri, a former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Riyadh in May 2021.[1] Khan’s visit ended a two-year diplomatic rift that had marred a close relationship spanning seven decades.[2] The Pakistani Prime Minister’s visit reopened vital channels of communication that had been shut for almost a year and signaled a “reset” in Saudi-Pakistani relations.[3] The rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 2019 and peaked in 2020, while the year 2021 was marked by calls for a reset in their relations.[4] Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with India remain at the heart of the Saudi-Pakistani split, and they are unlikely to change despite any presumptive diplomatic reset between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s increasing engagement with India as a key energy client is just one aspect of a broader transformation the Kingdom is experiencing under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[5] At the same time, Pakistan is in a deep economic crisis and is looking for foreign investment in major infrastructure projects to generate employment in the country.[6] In 2021, Pakistan declared its intention to pursue a foreign policy guided by its focus on economic security over its geopolitical interests.[7] Therefore, the long-term prospects for the Saudi-Pakistani reset depends on Pakistan’s ability to accept Saudi Arabia’s more even-handed India-Pakistan policy and the Saudis’ willingness to invest in an economic partnership with Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia
338. The UAE Under Attack: A Foreign Policy Test
- Author:
- Moran Zaga
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- January 2022 was an exceptional month in Abu Dhabi’s history. For the first time, this peaceful city suffered casualties as a result of a direct airstrike on two strategic sites – a petroleum storage site and Abu Dhabi International Airport.[1] The January 17 attacks, associated with the Houthis in Yemen, were followed by several failed attempts to attack the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) capital again. After the initial shock, the UAE launched an international campaign, calling for a multinational response.[2] And indeed, a chain of Arab leaders arrived in Abu Dhabi through the same airport that was attacked just a few days earlier.[3] The goal of their visit was clear – to express their full support and affirm their countries' solidarity with the UAE, its leaders, and its people. For the UAE, these high-level visitors reinforced the Emirati message that it was not alone on this front. The expressions of solidarity with the Emiratis transcended the region - leaders from around the world reached out to the Emirati leaders with messages of support and through other diplomatic channels.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Political stability, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
339. Hizballah, Lebanon, and Reconciliation with the Gulf: The Impasse
- Author:
- Carl Yonker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- On February 14, in Beirut’s southern, Hizballah-dominated suburb of Ghobeiry, Bahraini opposition groups marked the anniversary of the 2011 failed popular uprising in Bahrain. The gathering, organized by the Bahraini opposition group al-Wifaq, took place despite the Lebanese interior ministry’s orders to cancel it, which were issued in order to avoid offending Bahrain and its Gulf allies.[1] Lebanese ties with a quartet of Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – have been at an impasse since October 2021. The diplomatic crisis, which has yet to be resolved, was sparked by Lebanese Information Minister George Kurdahi's critical comments regarding Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen. At its core, however, the crisis in Lebanese-Gulf relations is a dispute over Hizballah and its growing political influence in Lebanon – a source of tension for several years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
340. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America
341. Tunisia’s Turbulence: On the Road to Economic and Political Collapse
- Author:
- Daniel Zisenwine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets of the capital Tunis in mid-March, demonstrating against Tunisian president Kais Saied’s July 2021 power grab and the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Citing alleged threats to Tunisia’s political order, Saied dismissed the government on July 25, 2021, suspended parliament, and moved to rule by decree. Critics, including opposition Islamist parties but also the country’s powerful trade unions, civil society groups, and foreign experts have since assailed Saied’s moves, contending that he effectively re-imposed one-man rule on Tunisia, and secured unchecked control over all branches of government. This political crisis intensified in late March, after Saied dissolved the Tunisian parliament which convened online and voted to repeal his decrees. The March protest differed from previous ones, as it was organized by the anti-Islamist Free Destourian Party (FDP), which has been critical of democratic measures adopted in Tunisia after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Zayn al-ʾAbidin Ben ʿAli’s authoritarian regime. The protest, led by a right-wing party not unsympathetic to some of Saeid’s grievances, focused on the president and the deteriorating economic crisis.[1] It was another indication of Tunisia’s growing unrest.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Civil Unrest, Economic Crisis, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
342. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE
343. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain – Part II
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations” on September 15, 2020; the “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on the same day. Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have rapidly progressed, with many more issue-specific agreements signed. The Negev Summit on March 28, 2022, which was attended by Bahrain, U.A.E., Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. A follow-up to the Negev Summit took place in Manama on June 27, 2022 and the steering committee, which was chaired by Bahraini Undersecretary for Political Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, formed working groups on security, health, education, tourism, food and water security, and energy.[1] A previous paper addressed recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. which impact on the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in the two states’ bilateral relations. This paper will look at the context and content of relations between Israel and Bahrain, and analyze the overall state of normalization in the region at this stage.[2]
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
344. Saudi Arabia’s New Nationalism: Embracing Jahiliyyah
- Author:
- Ilan Zalayat
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For more than two-thousand years, the walled city of al-ʿUla has been laying peacefully in a northwestern oasis of the Arabian Peninsula. While in ancient times it was an important oasis on the Spice Route, in the modern era, only the approximately five-thousand inhabitants of this far-flung town on the Saudi periphery know it to be the home of well-preserved stone monuments made by Nabataean sculptors. Its relative anonymity stands in stark contrast to its world-renowned twin city in Petra of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. However, ever since the de-facto Saudi ruler, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (“MbS”), became Crown Prince in June 2017, Saudi Arabia has gone to great lengths to publicize forgotten al-ʿUla: The government has invested $15 billion on advertising and developing the site, attracting hundreds of thousands of visitors.[1] The government also used the site to host the Saudi reconciliation with Qatar in 2021. Al-ʿUla was also the setting for the first-ever movie that was shot and produced in Saudi Arabia.[2] The counterintuitive choice to feature pagan monuments as the new symbol of Saudi Arabia,[3] a country that has long touted itself as the custodian of Islam, epitomizes the kingdom's effort to reimagine its pre-Islamic history in a nationalist frame.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nationalism, History, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia and Gulf Nations
345. Is there anything new in Mansour Abbas’ declaration concerning the “Jewish State”?
- Author:
- Arik Rudnitzky
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Arik Rudnitzky's article examines the declaration by Abbas regarding the Jewish State from a historical point of view.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Ideology, Arabs, and Mansour Abbas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
346. A New and Better Security Order for Europe
- Author:
- Rajan Menon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Far-reaching changes in the global balance of power and Europe’s security environment call for a new U.S. strategy toward Europe—for the benefit of Americans and Europeans alike. European states should take deliberate steps toward autonomy in defense, which the U.S. should foster by reducing its military presence in, and security commitments to, Europe, gradually and in coordination with its NATO allies. The eventual goal should be to eliminate permanent U.S. military deployments in Europe. Europe, particularly France and Germany, possesses the material wherewithal to balance Russia’s military power. What Europe lacks is the motivation, something it will not acquire so long as it can count on a blanket, open-ended American commitment. Europe’s stability and security demand a regional order into which Russia—the continent’s strongest single military power—is eventually integrated, rather than one from which it has become progressively alienated. The post-Cold War crises over Ukraine arose from complex circumstances; but one of them has been the absence of a pan-European security order that extends from the Atlantic to the Urals and contains provisions for engagement with Russia, including arms control and crisis management, as well as confidence-building measures designed to reduce the risk of war. Restructuring Europe’s security order to promote European strategic autonomy will improve, not harm, trans-Atlantic relations and cooperation. The U.S. and Canada are bound to Europe by centuries-old ties—historical, cultural, and economic. While the extent and nature of these ties will necessarily change over time, their existence does not depend on an American willingness to serve indefinitely as Europe’s prime defender.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America
347. NATO Should Defend Europe, Not Pivot to Asia
- Author:
- Jan Gerber
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- In 2021, the U.K., France, and Germany deployed 21 naval ships to the Indo-Pacific with a stated aim of helping the U.S. shoulder the burden of collective security and sustaining the “rules-based international order.” Naval deployments by the U.K., France, and Germany are symbolic and unlikely to affect the balance of power in Asia. A European pivot to the Indo-Pacific draws scarce attention and resources away from defense issues in Europe. Instead of encouraging Asian forays, the U.S. should encourage its European allies to assume primary responsibility for European security, freeing the United States to focus on the Pacific, if needed.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, France, Germany, and Indo-Pacific
348. To Prevent War and Secure Ukraine, Make Ukraine Neutral
- Author:
- Stephen W. Van Evera
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-NATO-Russia-Ukraine crisis could be resolved by a grand bargain among the parties that defines Ukraine as a neutral state. Neutrality deals worked well in the past to forestall Franco-British conflict over Belgium in the 1830s and East-West conflict over Finland and Austria in the Cold War. The Belgian, Finnish, and Austrian neutrality deals enhanced the security of the states they made neutral. Neutrality was an asset for Belgium, Finland, and Austria, not a handicap. Major powers never calmly accept the close approach to their borders of unfriendly powers or alliances. Russia is no exception. It will not accept a settlement that leaves open the possibility of Ukraine in NATO or NATO in Ukraine. Hence, a neutrality solution is both sufficient and necessary to resolve the current crisis. Ukraine is not worth a costly confrontation for the U.S. Hence, U.S. leaders should be open to compromise. If compromise proves elusive, the U.S. should not pay high costs or run large risks to impose a deal on its terms, as it has higher priorities at home and elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Alliance, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
349. Apply the Logic of the Afghanistan Withdrawal to Syria
- Author:
- Natalia Armbruster
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either. Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces. ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS. None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
350. The Wisdom of U.S. Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan
- Author:
- Andrew Doris
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan was not Korea. False analogies to peacetime military garrisons cheapen war and conflate wildly different forms of “support” to U.S. allies. War in Afghanistan was costly—to taxpayers, to civilians, to American soft power, to democratic legitimacy, and to the West’s strategic attention. Thus, withdrawal saved a fortune, saved lives, aided America’s reputation, honored democratic and constitutional principles, and focused Western strategists. War was not protecting Americans from terrorism. Keeping troops in but one of many places terrorists may operate did not meaningfully reduce Americans’ microscopic risk of being harmed in a terrorist attack. War was not helping Afghanistan. Democracy is a strong word for what U.S. forces propped up. Far from maintaining stability, the continued presence of those forces only prolonged armed struggle against a corrupt rentier state, impeding organic or sustainable long-term development. Credibility is highly contextual and unaffected by admitting defeat after 20 years of futile effort. If anything, the resources freed up by withdrawal make the United States better able to honor other commitments.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America