Content Type: Commentary and Analysis / Topic: International Affairs

101. Why Iran’s Pasadran Pursues a Strict Policy towards Dual Citizens?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The nuclear deal, reached in mid-July 2015, has contributed towards improving relations between Iran and the world powers, especially after some of them signed new economic deals with Tehran. However, this has not driven Iran to change its policy on pending issues regarding dual citizens and foreigners recently detained over charges of spying or attempting to topple the regime.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

102. Will Turkey’s Central Bank Yield to President Erdogan’s Pressure?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo- gan continues his years-old pressure on the Central Bank to lower interest rates in a bid to encourage lending and consumption, and support the country’s economic growth, damaged by the mid-2016 failed coup attempt. The Turkish economic community considers that the move is highly risky, especially because of the possibility that the apex bank would lose credibility and weaken its ability to achieve monetary and financial stability.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

103. Military Dimension of the New U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, winter will not stop intensified operations against the Taliban. With the increased U.S. and NATO troop level, Afghan forces will switch from defensive to offensive activities. Only stronger military pressure and other forms of influence taken together might impel the Taliban to negotiate with the government in Kabul. The political effects of the new strategy should be expected only in a longer-term perspective.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

104. FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

105. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The next presidential election in Ukraine is set for 31 March 2019. The parliamentary election to the 9th Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will take place on 27 October 2019. According to the latest survey conducted in October 2017, the following parties would be elected to the Parliament: «Petro Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarity» (13.6%), «Batkivshchyna» (10%), «Civic Position» party (8.9%), «Opposition Bloc» party (8.6%), «For Life» party (6.8%), the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (6.5%), «Self Help» Union (5.9%). Others would not be able to cross the 5% threshold.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

106. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: Before the bill “On the peculiarities of state policy on the restoration of Ukraine’s state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” is adopted, it needs some additional work.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

107. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: ANTI-CORRUPTION COURT: TO EXECUTE IMPOSSIBLE TO PARDON determined by the level of people’s awareness, candidates’ hidden motives. Society must ask questions: who is the candidate, what does he seek, does he represent a particular person, or is he an independent law-maker? We have to ask ourselves as well. Because after the election campaign of 2014, many new deputies emerged, but they did not turn out to be who they positioned themselves as. The issue of the quality of parliamentarism is a deep one, it cannot be associated with a certain law, – it is connected with political culture that needs to be developed. Full text Kharkiv oblast, and Svatove in Luhansk oblast in 2015. This year, attention of the entire country was drawn to the fires in Balaklia, Kharkiv oblast in late March, and now – the one not far from Kalynivka, Vinnytsia oblast. situation, where the corruption search campaign across all levels of the government triad has brought Ukraine to the top of corrupt states list, and the judiciary is consistently and deliberately deprived of the lion’s share of public trust, the creation of a specialised anti-corruption court will bring the fight against corruption into a practical stage. Full text The court system is largely disoriented and demoralised. It is hard to predict the results of its next modernisation in the sense of its ability to bring all of its segments together to properly administer fair justice. Today, the expert and political community is awaiting the «finalising» of assembly of the new Supreme Court and the determination of prospects for creating the anti-corruption court, especially, methods and ways this issue is to be solved.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

108. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: In Ukraine, every President that comes to power aspires to change the Constitution of Ukraine, however, even this Constitution has hardly ever been abided by in the 20 years. Our civil society is still underdeveloped. We still experience only occasional surges – one Maidan, then another one, where the civil society shows itself. We still have not reached the point where civil society controls the government.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

109. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The inability of the Constitutional Court to choose the new Chairman of theCCU in a closed meeting held recently is just the outside sign of existing problems accumulated inside and around this important state institution.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

110. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The Constitutional Commission created in early March 2015 by President Petro Poroshenko’s Decree has hardly stopped it work, as new rumours of yet another Constitutional change have started spreading inside Ukrainian information space and political environment. Citizens cannot make up their mind about the necessity of amending the Basic Law, as they are not aware of their fundamental constitutional rights. Razumkov Centre’s survey results in 2015 show that only 10% of Ukrainians are familiar with the text of the Constitution, while 40% – have never laid eyes on the Basic Law
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

111. The Razumkov Center Newsletter

Author:: Razumkov Center
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: National Security and Defence Council decision to stop the movement of goods across the line of demarcation and transport connection with ORDLO is a mechanism of bringing down the intensity of tension in the society, which developed due to the blockade of railway tracks in Donbas
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

112. Catalonia’s independence bid: how did we get here? What is the European dimension? What next?

Author:: Elcano Royal Institute
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: Analysis of Catalonia's independence bid.
Topic:: International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Spain and Catalonia

113. The Role of Universities in Our Changing Economy

Author:: Jeffrey Bleich
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: We grew up in a century defined by the Second Industrial Revolution. Today, that revolution is being eclipsed by a Digital Revolution. The uncertainty that we are experiencing in every aspect of our society is the same disorientation that occurred between 1870 and 1910 when the first Industrial Revolution ended and a second one began.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

114. The Fund for American Studies: Celebrating 50 Years of Educating Leaders Throughout the World

Author:: Roger R Ream
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: The Fund for American Studies (TFAS) was founded in 1967 with a mission focused on influencing the intellectual climate in the world by giving young people entering leadership positions a balanced perspective on political and economic systems. It was founded in the heat of the Cold War and during a period of growing unrest and even violent upheaval on college campuses. Many of the founders of the organization were actively engaged in international programs, including former Congressman Walter Judd and political organizer David R. Jones.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

115. The Power of Rapid-Response Public Diplomacy: The IVLP On Demand

Author:: Monica Damberg-Ott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: The U.S. Department of State’s International Visitor Leadership Program, or IVLP, is often referred to as the “gold standard” of exchange programs th within the public diplomacy community. The program celebrated its 75 anniversary in 2015, and more than 200,000 International Visitors have engaged with Americans through the IVLP, including more than 505 current or former Chiefs of State or Heads of Government,1 since its inception in 1940. Margaret Thatcher, Hamid Karzai, and Indira Gandhi, to name just a few, are alumni. But with recent budget constraints and the need to demonstrate immediate, results-driven programming, the State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA) is placing greater emphasis on its most flexible rapid-response exchanges. Among those programs is the highly adaptable and policy-responsive option: the IVLP On Demand. So how does it differ from the original model, how does it compare, and how might it help show results more quickly?
Topic:: Diplomacy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

116. Morocco’s Return to the African Union: Strengthening the Continent’s Future

Author:: Edward M. Gabriel
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: From a strategic perspective, Morocco’s decision to join the African Union (AU) 33 years after quitting the bloc illustrates King Mohammed VI’s vision of his country’s role on the continent as a platform for regional economic, political and security cooperation. It followed almost two decades of personal diplomatic efforts by the king to further Morocco’s goal of supporting greater regional and continental stability through common economic and political interests.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Morocco

117. U.S.-Ghana Relations Are Strong Following December 2016 Elections

Author:: Robert Jackson
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Ghana is one of the leading democracies on the African continent, with multiple peaceful interparty transitions since the return of multi-party democracy in 1992; a good record on human rights; an apolitical military; and a lively, free media. Ghanaians often note that whenever the Republican Party wins the White House, Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) wins Jubilee House—a coincidental tradition that held true again in 2016. Ghana’s presidential and parliamentary elections were peaceful, transparent, and credible; U.S. engagement played a critical role in that success, as well as in the resulting peaceful transition of power.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Ghana

118. The United States and Namibia: Promoting Success in a Young African Democracy

Author:: Thomas F Daughton
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: ust 27 years old, the Republic of Namibia is among Africa’s youngest countries, but one that stands out on the continent for its functioning multiparty democracy, open market economy and history of peaceful transitions of presidential power. The reasons for Namibia’s success lie in the international process that created it and in the pragmatism of its people. That international process and the United States’ involvement in it have also complicated the U.S.-Namibia relationship in the last three decades. But the United States has long recognized that an investment in the success of a country like Namibia is a strategic long-term investment in our own security. With that in mind, the United States has invested heavily since Namibian independence in 1990 to help ensure that the young country succeeds.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Ghana

119. How NATO Is Adapting to a More Dangerous World

Author:: Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: NATO is adapting rapidly to an evolving security situation by strengthening our deterrence and defense, and by working with our partners to project stability be
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

120. The Middle East and Europe in These Turbulent Times

Author:: Genci Mucaj
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: A few years ago, it would have been difficult to imagine the regional transformation underway in the Middle East. From the Arab Spring to the rise of ISIS, to a catastrophic Syrian war, we see a Middle East in turmoil and crisis. While the region’s geopolitical map varies, the root causes of conflict remain the same.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

121. The United States and Colombia: A Special Relationship

Author:: Juan Pinzón Carlos
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: The world has changed for Colombia. For the first time in more than 50 years, we are a nation building a lasting and stable peace. What has not changed is the special relationship Colombia shares with the United States. As the oldest and strongest democracies in the Western Hemisphere, the relationship between our two countries is deeply rooted in our steadfast commitment to the shared values of democracy, freedom and equality.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Colombia

122. A Collaborative Approach to Human Rights Impact Assessments

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: This discussion paper, co-authored with the Danish Institute for Human Rights and the Sciences Po Law School Clinic, proposes a new approach to conducting human rights impact assessments (HRIAs) of business operations or projects, which brings together project-affected people, the company, and other stakeholders to jointly design and implement an assessment. The aim of this new approach is to address one of the key challenges of current HRIA practices: the limited engagement and participation of relevant stakeholders, which can undermine effectiveness and trust.
Topic:: Human Rights and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

123. Principles of Russian Military Thought

Author:: Nicolò Fasola
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to identify the enduring principles at the basis of Russian military thought, offering an alternative to the contemporary analytical mainstream – which deems Moscow’s military behavior to be revolutionary and unprecedented. This is based on comparative analysis of Russian official military discourse and practice between 2008 and 2016. Critical inspection of the two Military Doctrines approved during this timeframe and of various military drills will reveal a series of rhetorical and operational recurrences. Notwithstanding numerous changes at the international and domestic levels that could have had an impact on Russian military behavior, no substantive shift is distinguishable. These empirical findings will constitute the basis for a reconstruction of Russian military thought. Through a deductive method, we will be able to reconstruct the ultimate assumptions granting them logical coherence and legitimization. Far from being incomprehensible, Russian military thought will be presented as the adaptation of classical strategic principles to contemporary contingencies.
Topic:: International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

124. Invented Traditionalism vs. Entrenched Informal Institutions

Author:: Tamar Lagurashvili
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: Invented Traditionalism vs. Entrenched Informal Institutions: Viability of Hybrid Governance and Democratization Prospects in Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland is new discussion paper by former IIR independent researcher intern, Tamar Lagurashvili.
Topic:: International Affairs and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Central Africa

125. “Alternative” Strategic Perceptions in U.S.-China Relations

Author:: David J. Firestein and Euhwa Tran
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute has released a new report on U.S.-China relations—"Alternative” Strategic Perceptions in U.S.-China Relations. The report lays out the differing strategic perceptions of the United States and China with respect to some of the most topical and challenging issues on the U.S.-China agenda today. These starkly differing perceptions inform and exacerbate actual policy and fuel mistrust and broad mutual strategic suspicion. By exposing the diverging perceptions of the two countries and bringing those perceptions into the fabric of bilateral discourse more explicitly and honestly, this report creates the basis for a more honest, substantive, constructive, fruitful and mutually beneficial dialogue.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

126. Asian Water Security: A Present and Future Test

Author:: Peter Engelke
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: An insecure supply of clean water raises the dangers of economic disruption, social tension, and even conflict over water resources at both the domestic and international levels. These dangers are highest where water is scarce and governance (at the domestic or international levels) is poor. Asia provides the most powerful illustration of water security risks, with significant challenges that affect both the water supply and demand sides, as well as important governance shortcomings. While there are enormous disparities across Asia in terms of this issue, the continent’s overall water outlook is discouraging. Much of Asia suffers from the consequences of investments in supply-side water infrastructure projects that have emphasised gigantic scale over the efficient use of water. These investments have often been made without adequate consideration of their economic, social, diplomatic and environmental costs, nor with much concern for long-term impact. The rapid pace and massive scale of Asian urbanization are placing new stresses on water demand, because city dwellers consume more water than their rural counterparts. Water experts and practitioners across Asia are fully aware of the continent’s many problems and are diligently working to overcome them. There will be no easy fix, however, because of Asia’s massive scale plus significant financial, political and institutional obstacles. As in other domains, there is no substitute for good governance. Widespread progress on the continent will occur when local, regional, and national leaders use good data and information to make the right decisions to manage water resources smartly and cooperatively over the long run.
Topic:: International Affairs, Water, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Asia

127. A Building block for a Middle East without WMD: An all inclusive nuclear test free zone

Author:: Marc Finaud
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Since Egypt, Iran, and Israel have signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), they agree to the goal of prohibiting the testing of nuclear weapons. As a building block towards the establishment of a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East, they could jointly or concurrently ratify the CTBT, thus creating a de facto nuclear-test-free zone in the region that Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen could join. This could act as a confidence-building measure and facilitate the participation of these states in the activities of the CTBT Organization (CTBTO), which verifies compliance with the test ban.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

128. Making sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters

Author:: Luis Simón and Vivien Pertusot
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions. This exercise in geopolitical scoping seeks to make sense of the main security challenges present in Europe’s broader European neighbourhood, a space encompassing areas as diverse as the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahel, North Africa, the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It identifies (some of) the main sub-regions that make up the ‘South’, offers an overview of the threat environment in each of them and identifies relevant differences as well as common themes. In doing so we aim to provide a conceptual referent for further policy research on the security of Europe’s ‘South’, and to help inform future strategic and policy discussions within the EU, NATO and their Member States.
Topic:: International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

129. Three’s company? France, Germany, the UK and European defence post-Brexit

Author:: Daniel Keohane
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: It is vital that France, Germany and the UK cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU. Supporters of EU defence policy have seized on the Brexit decision of the British people as an opportunity to strengthen that policy. In the past the UK had blocked some proposals, which France, Germany and others now wish to implement. But a more energised EU defence on paper will not quickly transform into a stronger policy in practice. More important for the security of Europeans is that France, Germany and the UK ensure that they cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: European Union

130. The results of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan

Author:: Dmitry Streltsov
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: International analytical center “Rethinking Russia” presents a commentary of Dmitry Streltsov, doctor of history, head of the Department of Oriental studies of the MGIMO University, on the results of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Japan

131. Strengthening Stability in Northwest Africa: Ideas for U.S. Policy toward Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia

Author:: Robert Satloff and Sarah Feuer
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The countries of northwest Africa -- Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia -- have proven either more resilient or more adaptive than other Middle East states to the political upheavals that have engulfed the region over the last half-dozen years. To varying degrees, however, stability remains a major challenge for all these countries as they face transnational terrorism, spillover from the conflict in Libya, abrupt shifts in domestic political dynamics, potential flare-ups of regional conflicts, and unforeseen events that could ignite deep-seated resentment at a local mix of stagnant economies, endemic corruption, and profound disparities between wealth and poverty. In this Transition 2017 essay, Robert Satloff and Sarah Feuer warn against overlooking a corner of the Middle East that doesn't attract the same attention as areas facing more-acute conflict. Outlining America's key strategic interests in this region, they discuss specific ways the Trump administration can advance these interests in terms of both bilateral and regional relations.
Topic:: International Relations, International Affairs, and International Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Northwest Africa

132. Toward a New Paradigm for Addressing the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Like many of his predecessors, President Trump has come to office pledging to solve the decades-long Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In this paper, two veteran U.S. peace negotiators point out the repeated failure of past efforts to reach "all-or-nothing" solutions to this conflict, urge the president not to seek a comprehensive settlement, and instead recommend an approach based on reaching an understanding with Israel on steps that could, preserve the potential for a two-state outcome in the future; blunt the delegitimization movement against Israel; and give the administration leverage to use with the Palestinians, other Arabs, and Europeans. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has faded in significance in the Middle East against the backdrop of the conflict in Syria, the rise of ISIS, and the regionwide clash of Sunni and Shiite powers. Both the likelihood for a return to the negotiating table and the prospects for a two-state solution are growing dim.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel and Palestine

133. General Principles to Guide U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:: James F. Jeffrey and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Given the unprecedented turmoil and uncertainty afflicting the Middle East, the new administration will need to devote particular care and urgency to understanding the essence of America's interests in the region, and applying clear principles in pursuing them. This is the advice offered by two U.S. diplomats with a distinguished record of defending those interests under various administrations. As Trump and his team take office, they face a regional state system that is under assault by proxy wars that reflect geopolitical rivalries and conflicts over basic identity. Rarely has it been more important for a new administration to articulate clear goals and principles, and Ambassadors James Jeffrey and Dennis Ross outline both in this transition paper. With 30 percent of the world's hydrocarbons still flowing from the Middle East, safeguarding that supply remains a critical U.S. national security interest, along with preventing nuclear proliferation, countering terrorism, and preserving stability. In their view, the best way to pursue these interests is to emphasize a coherent set of guiding principles, namely:
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

134. Assault on the Liberal Trading Order

Author:: Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: Given the hotly contested U.S. presidential election and the surprising victory of Donald Trump, followed by the flurry of executive actions, it is easy to lose sight of the broader challenges to the U.S.-promoted post-Second World War economic order. My analysis proceeds in four parts. First, I consider how we have moved away from multilateral to bilateral trade negotiations. Second, I consider how the consensus for a liberal trade order has frayed, focusing on systemic changes, U.S. domestic political economic conflicts, and a rethinking of the ideological consensus around the benefits of free trade. Third, I highlight factors that drove the demise of TPP. I conclude by looking at the future of trade accords in the Asia-Pacific.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

135. Overselling the Trans pacific Partnership: The Trade Security Nexus

Author:: Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: For decades, first under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then its successor organization the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries successfully negotiated the reduction of both tariffs and nontariff barriers every few years. But in December 2015, after 14 years of fruitless negotiations, WTO members terminated the Doha Round.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

136. Make Japan Great Again? The Rise of Trump and Significance of the US-Japan Alliance

Author:: Fuad Olajuwon
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Japan is in a unique position. With the rise of Trump and the changing of the American political landscape, the world faces a new challenge. That challenge is uncertainty. If you’re from a realist background, that raises concern. The shifting of the global narrative is one to look out for, as countries across Europe and the Western world are shifting away from the “liberal world order” and more into an ideologist that puts the concerns of the host over that of the guest. With Brexit and “#AmericaFirst” rhetoric gaining momentum, what is the fate of East Asia? One thing is sure: this is a unique time as ever for Japan to stand on its own two feet.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Japan and America

137. North Korea Policy: Failure is the Only Option

Author:: Denny Roy
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As many analysts have pointed out, US policy towards North Korea is “failing.” It is true that Pyongyang has declined the US/South Korean offer to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for economic opportuni es and upgraded poli cal rela ons. Instead, the North Korean government remains intensely hos le towards Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, and con nues making progress towards deploying a nuclear‐ pped intercon nental ballis c missile — a frightening prospect.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: North Korea

138. President Macron’s France: Between Internal Turmoil and External Crossroads

Author:: Hajnalka Vincze
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: “One only comes out of ambiguity to their own detriment,” this maxim often repeated by former President François Mitterrand sounds like a premonitory warning in the aftermath of Emmanuel Macron’s election in France. Indeed, for the new president whose figure of speech, “but at the same time,” has practically become his trademark during the campaign, the inevitable clarifications are likely to entail hurdles. In the economic and social policy field, Macron’s “right and left” positioning enabled him to capture a wide audience, but at the cost of sometimes contradictory statements that might prove to be difficult to reconcile between two very different camps. In foreign policy, who Macron appoints to key position should lift part of the mystery as to the actual preferences of the new president. While claiming to want to perpetuate the voluntarist Gaullo-Mitterrandian tradition, Emmanuel Macron has so far given no indication that he would break with the policy carried out over the past ten years, a policy that resulted precisely in the noticeable vanishing of what used to
Topic:: International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: France

139. The Future of Mexico, Part II: As Mexico City Turns

Author:: David Danelo
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On January 29, 2016, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto signed a law changing the official name of Mexico’s capital region from Distrito Federal, or D.F., to Ciudad de Mexico. Beyond altering nearly two centuries of dialectical urban description—the region had been called D.F. since 1824 when Mexico’s first constitution was written—the adjustment grants Ciudad de Mexico a level of autonomous governance similar to the country’s other 31 states. The name change devolved power from Mexico’s federal government “to the citizens of Mexico City” and was presented with great public fanfare. Much of Ciudad de Mexico’s new constitution, which was signed in February 2017 and will become law in September 2018, was crowd-sourced from online petitions and community advocates. With articles enshrining green space and LGBT protections, the document has been hailed by liberal advocates as the most progressive in the Western Hemisphere.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Mexico

140. The First Hundred Days: Trump Meets Asia...and Reality

Author:: June Teufel Dreyer
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The first 100 days of a president’s term—the “honeymoon period,” during which his power and influence are believed to be their greatest—are, whether rightly or wrongly, regarded as a predictor of a president’s success during the remainder of his term. Given the often bombastic tone of Candidate Trump’s campaign rhetoric, it was to be expected that the foreign powers against whom much of his vitriol was directed would seek to challenge the determination of President Trump to live up to his promises. And so it has been.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

141. Birds of a Feather: As Viktor Orbán’s Cronies Unload on President Trump, Orbán Sidles Up to President Putin

Author:: John R. Haines
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Hungarian proverb Madarat tolláról, embert barátjáról translates roughly as “You can tell a bird by its feathers, and a person by his friends.” If so, it says much about Hungarian President Viktor Orbán. Russian President Vladimir Putin was asked during a 12 April interview with Russia’s MIR television and radio network whether “relations deteriorated with Trump in office from what they were under his predecessor?” He answered, “We could say that at the working level, the degree of trust has dropped, especially in the military area. It has not improved and has probably worsened.”[1] Mr. Putin premised this appraisal with an extended dissemble about “several versions” about “the chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province, which led to the US air strike on a Syrian air base:”
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Hungary

142. The Future of Mexico, Part I: The Other Mexican Border

Author:: David Danelo
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: “You should have said something,” a perturbed Chilean university professor tells me in Spanish, soon after we disembarked from a bus in Córdoba, Mexico. Wearing combat boots, fatigues, and a shaved head with scrubby facial hair, the short, slender, middle-aged man had watched me get inspected three times by Mexican migration and military personnel while traveling north from the Mexico-Guatemala border. At each checkpoint, I was the only passenger who drew attention; my passport and documents permitting me to travel through Mexico were scrutinized, and each compartment in my backpack was unzipped. The Chilean, who looked like he could have been in the military himself, claimed he was an advisor to Mexican border forces. “They were profiling you. They are not supposed to do that.” I laughed. Of course, they were profiling me. I look exactly like what I am: a gringo; a güero; an American. Given the attitude the United States government has directed recently towards Mexico, why wouldn’t I be a primary target for extra security screenings? I considered myself fortunate that Mexican authorities were content with seeing my passport and searching my backpack. All things considered, it was a courteous reprieve
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Mexico

143. Thinking Beyond China When Dealing with North Korea: Is There a Role for Russia?

Author:: Artyom Lukin
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Russia is now the only major country that is on more or less friendly terms with Pyongyang. Its current economic leverage with the North comes mostly from the importation of North Korean labor, which provides Pyongyang with a vital source of cash. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) trusts no person or country, but it probably distrusts Russia much less than China and the United States. This dynamic gives Russia a potential diplomatic role in the North Korean problem. The Kremlin does not support using high pressure tactics against Pyongyang, especially military options, as it might have unpredictable and disastrous consequences for the entire Northeast Asian region. Moscow is committed to the denuclearization of North Korea, but sees it as a long-term goal, while the most realistic objective at present should be a North Korean nuclear and missile moratorium, or “freeze.”
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: North Korea

144. China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: China’s increased engagement in Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe has aroused concerns in Europe that China is pursuing a divisive strategy. Its primary goal, however, is to use the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its own Eurasian integration project; in Beijing’s view, a robust regulatory EU is doubtless preferable to a fragmented Europe. China’s deepening involvement in the region could nevertheless increase economic divisions within the EU as whole. As a trade triangle emerges involving China, Germany, and the Visegrad states, the “German-Central European manufacturing core” potentially stands to gain at the expense of the EU’s Atlantic and southern European member states. Germany must address this risk with a triple strategy that balances national interest, EU cohesion, and engagement with China. This involves, first, working with the Visegrad Four, with other European countries, and with EU institutions to forge a deeper and more effective cooperation with China to enhance transport connectivity and economic modernization, particularly in the Western and Eastern Balkans. Second, Germany should increase pressure on China to open up the Chinese domestic market to ensure mutual access. And third, it should promote forward-looking European industrial policy centered on the digitalization of value and supply chains for Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe. This would allow Germany to prevent intra-European divisions from deepening, while taking advantage of its triangular relations with China and the countries of Central Europe and fostering mutually advantageous integration across Eurasia.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

145. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy Security Concerns amid Ethno-political Conflicts

Author:: Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The South Caucasus continues to be critically important to Eurasian security. The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty and confrontation to the region. Russia’s policies here are crucial, as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergey Markedonov offers an insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the region, highlighting its security concerns and stressing that Russia is not taking a universal approach to all of the post-Soviet conflict zones. While the “Western” political and expert community often assumes that territorial revisionism is a kind of idée fixe within Russia, this is far from the case. Each situation demands an indi- vidual response from Moscow, as it weighs and pursues its own interests. This in turn explains the improbability of “Crimean situations” multiplying in the South Caucasus. The region undoubtedly harbors risks of confrontation – not only between Russia and the countries of the immediate region but also with such large powers as the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – but it also holds several opportunities for cooperation.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

146. Three Challenges for a Macron Presidency And Two Recommendations for Germany

Author:: Daniela Schwarzer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: A Macron presidency could be the last chance for liberal-minded politicians to reform France and the EU. Failure to do so may pave the way in ve years’ time for a far-right or far-left president who would then begin undoing the EU
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: France

147. What’s next after Theresa May’s spectacular own goal?

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This was meant to be a Brexit election to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand. The result was precisely the opposite. Her management of the Brexit process has become a long sequence of own goals: quit the customs union and single market; watch EU agencies relocate to the continent, including importantly for medicines and banking; banking jobs begin to relocate; science, research and academia see their interests harmed; the budget settlement prospect becomes a big new negative; the Irish border question threatens; immigration from the EU is already declining and various sectors from fruit-picking to the national health service are at risk. Moreover, the UK’s economic growth has slowed down and is now forecast to drop to 1% in 2018; the pound has lost 13% since the referendum; inflation is up; and consumer spending is down. The only solace available to Mrs May is that the Scots seem to be having second thoughts about independence. But this election was her biggest own goal yet. The credibility of her Brexit negotiation method is shattered. She thought the British people could be satisfied with slogans about “Brexit means Brexit”, or “getting the best deal for Britain”, and the now notorious “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Above all there was the failure to define and communicate a credible negotiation strategy. The Brexit White Paper of February 2017 contained serious contradictions, insisting that the UK should get ‘seamless’ market access while still leaving the customs union and the single market.
Topic:: International Affairs, Political stability, Europe Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Britain

148. Trump’s Paris Exit A blow to climate politics, but a boon to regional climate policy?

Author:: Milan Elkerbout
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement represents a setback for global climate action. But the damage will be felt more in political and diplomatic terms than in terms of climate policy or reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which depend at least in the near term on domestic climate policies. The election of Donald Trump and the strong Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress that accompanied his election immediately dispelled any hope that the US would implement or maintain ambitious climate policies. Indeed, in the first months of his Presidency, Trump signed an executive order to review (and thus likely roll back) President Obama’s landmark climate policy – the Clean Power Plan. The latter initiative aimed to reduce power-sector emissions by 32% by 2030 through federal legislation. Other US climate policies, such as vehicle standards and methane regulations, are also destined for the axe. Taken collectively, these measures will make it very difficult for the country to meet its Paris pledge of reducing GHG emissions by 26-28% by 2025 compared to 2005, even if another personality occupies the White House by 2021. 1 Improving fundamentals for renewable energy may still allow the US to reach its 2020 target of a 17% reduction in emissions compared to 2005. But the difference between this target and the formal pledge made by the US in Paris is roughly equal to the annual emissions of the entire transport sector in the EU.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Affairs, and Climate Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

149. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria

Author:: Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The arrangement between the United States and Russia over southern Syria represents a test, both for the chances of jumpstarting a coordinated process between the world powers over a future settlement in Syria and for the relations between them on other contested issues. Israel was not mentioned in the context of the ceasefire arrangement, but it has scored several achievements. Nonetheless, Israel is likely to confront an attempt by President Assad to advance forces to southwest Syria and the Golan Heights. Because Assad’s forces rely on help from Iran’s proxies – Shiite militias and Hezbollah – Israel may have to fulfill a counter-threat if any of the red lines it announced are crossed.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

150. United States Policy on Regime Change in Iran

Author:: Ephraim Kam and Zaki Shalom
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Senior officials within the Iranian regime have long been convinced that American administrations have striven to infiltrate Iran’s internal system and topple the Islamic regime, and this impression has been bolstered of late. For its part, even if the Trump administration has not presented a defined position on regime change in Iran, it undoubtedly has a clear interest in this regard. Yet the US administration has no concrete ability to bring about regime change in Iran in the desired direction – not by supporting internal opposition forces, and certainly not through military intervention. If the Iranian regime does change in the future, it will presumably result from internal processes and not external intervention.
Topic:: War, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Iran

151. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria

Author:: Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin since Trump entered the White House took place in Hamburg, during the G20 summit of July 7-8, 2017. Relations between the two powers have been marked by tension over disagreements on various areas of conflict around the world, and from the reports in the United States about alleged contacts between Trump and Russia during the presidential campaign and Russian cyber interference in the election process. Tensions rose further when US forces attacked pro-Assad coalition forces in Syria and when Russia opposed the condemnation of North Korea in the Security Council regarding Pyonyang’s long range missile program. Nonetheless, reports were that the meeting between the leaders, which lasted longer than planned, was constructive, though very few details about the conversation itself or any agreements reached were provided, other than an announcement on the agreement to impose a ceasefire in southwestern Syria and establish a de-escalation zone there.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

152. At a Crossroads: Israeli Policy on UNIFIL

Author:: Assaf Orion
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent weeks have witnessed a change in the public position on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) among high ranking IDF personnel. Senior IDF officers have addressed Hezbollah’s military activity in Lebanon, regarding both the Iranian-supported production of weapon systems in Lebanon and open, provocative intelligence gathering along the Blue Line. Prominent in this context was an exchange between IDF Deputy Chief of the General Staff Major General Aviv Kochavi and UNIFIL Commander Major General Michael Beary on June 11, 2017 during the visit to Israel by US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. It was reported that after Beary praised the quiet in his Area of Responsibility, and said that there was no need for a change in UNIFIL activity in the sector, Kochavi took issue with this statement, saying that the Lebanese army was preventing UNIFIL forces from entering built-up areas, thereby abetting the continuation of Hezbollah activity in populated terrain.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

153. India and Israel: A Strategic Alliance?

Author:: Oded Eran
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The second decade of the twenty-first century has brought tremendous shifts in Israel's map of international relations, amounting to a new set of formal and informal alliances. The visit to Israel by Indian Prime Minister the Honorable Narendra Modi (July 4-6, 2017) can be seen as one of the milestones in this process.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: India and Israel

154. The shrinking Euro-Mediterranean policy space

Author:: Gonzalo Escribano
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: This analysis addresses changes in the Euro-Mediterranean strategic context and the erosion of the economic incentives built into Euro-Mediterranean policy to deal with such transformation. It also puts the case for a reformulation of Euro-Mediterranean policies, but argues that, rather than pursuing an incremental continuity, the EU should engineer a more radical overhaul of its mechanisms of governance, its instruments and its discourse.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

155. The US and the Iran Deal: No Time for Magical Thinking

Author:: Simon Palamar
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: In July 2015, the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union, signed on to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement in which Iran would put substantial and verifiable limits on its nuclear science and engineering activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Many observers hailed the agreement as an important — if imperfect — tool for keeping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Former US President Barack Obama argued that “the United States, our partners, and the world are more secure because of the JCPOA.”
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Iran

156. Defense of Animal Agriculture Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense et al.

Author:: Blue Ribbon Panel
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The increasing rate of emerging and reemerging zoonotic disease, along with threats and attempts by those with nefarious intent to attack food and agriculture, point to the need to exert more effort to eliminate vulnerabilities and reduce consequences associated with America’s agricultural sector. The Food and Agriculture (F&A) critical infrastructure sector produces, processes, and delivers the systems and commodities that feed billions of people and animals throughout the United States and globally. In 2015, the agriculture, food, and related industries contributed $992 billion (5.5%) to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the largest sectors of the U.S. economy. Given its critical importance to food safety and availability in the United States and around the world, protecting this sector is a matter of national security. Federal agencies; state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) governments; academic institutions; and industry partners all contribute to and are responsible for this vast enterprise. Our lives, culture, economy, and livelihood depend on their efforts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

157. Teaching Hate, Inspiring Terrorism: Saudi Arabia’s Educational Curriculum

Author:: Nina Shea
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony Before the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia

158. Financing the Reagan 600-ship Naval Modernization Program, 1981-89

Author:: William Schneider
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony Before the United States Senate Committee on the Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

159. The Current State of Retirement Security in the United States

Author:: Walter Russell Mead
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Policy
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

160. Success or Failure? Assessment of the Readmission Agreement Between the EU and Turkey from the Legal and Political Perspectives

Author:: Berfin Nur Osso
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The discussion paper by Berfin Nur Osso, former intern at the Institute of International Relations Prague and a senior undergraduate student at the Koç University in Istanbul majoring in Law and minoring in International Relations, focuses on the assessment of the readmission agreement between the EU and Turkey.
Topic:: International Affairs and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

161. After The Jarabulus Offensive: How Far Will Turkey Shift Its Syria Policy?

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The July 15 attempted coup, which exposed rifts within the Turkish military, coupled with the August 9 meeting between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24, appear to signal a change in trajectory for Turkey’s Syria policy. Since Erdogan’s ouster of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in May 2015, Turkey has already implemented some significant foreign policy shifts, including normalization with Israel and a desire to mend ties with Russia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Peace Studies, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Syria

162. The United States and Estonia: Partners for Peace and Prosperity

Author:: Jr. James D. Melville
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: In August, Estonia marked 25 years since the end of Soviet occupation and the restoration of its national institutions. Estonia’s rapid reintegration with the West as a sovereign, stable, and prosperous democracy is nothing short of remarkable, and it serves as an inspiration to other nations. Theirs is a journey made possible through disciplined leadership, solid regulatory frameworks, strategic decisions, and a steadfast commitment to being a contributing member of European, transatlantic, and international alliances. Our partnership is one of allies with synchronized goals and values, a rare combination that gives both countries leverage to do even more.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Estonia

163. “Caught Trying” in Denmark: The Case for Taking Risks in Using Non-Traditional US Diplomacy to Meet Global Challenges

Author:: Rufus Gifford
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Denmark is one of America’s closest partners. Near the pinnacle of global indices of wealth, well-being, and democracy, Denmark is uniquely positioned to work alongside the United States in support of our shared approaches to addressing 21st century global challenges. It is the only Nordic country that is a member of all three vital multinational organizations: NATO, EU, and Arctic Council. Denmark very much reinforces President Obama’s now-famous foreign policy quote in the April 2016 edition of The Atlantic: “If only everyone could be like the Scandinavians, this would all be easy.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Denmark

164. The United States and Canada: The Strength of Partnership

Author:: Bruce A. Heyman
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Canada is arguably our most important bilateral relationship. Our exceptional and unique ties are rooted in a common border that stretches for 5,525 miles, over 200 years of closely interwoven history and culture, our largest economic relationship worldwide, our similar values. We have amazingly intertwined supply chains; we work closely as NATO allies; and partner extensively to address global challenges. As President Obama put it during Prime Minister Trudeau’s visit to Washington in March 2016, “Of course, no two nations agree on everything...But in terms of our interests, our values, how we approach the world, few countries match up the way the United States and Canada do.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

165. Innovation: Key to a 21st Century Alliance

Author:: John Berry
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Over 200 years ago, one of our founding fathers Benjamin Franklin urged us to innovate, with the warning: “When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.” One of our greatest presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was not only a talented statesman, he was an inventor and tinkerer extraordinaire. Innovation lies at the very heart of what it means to be an American. From the beginning, our country was a grand experiment. We believed then—and now—that freedom plus hard work equals progress. Innovation, invention, and creativity help turn progress into success.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Global Focus

166. Celebrating Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Good Neighbor Policy

Author:: William J. vanden Heuvel
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: On January 6, 1941, President Roosevelt came before the Congress and gave us a vision of the world that would be worthy of our civilization. He spoke—simply, eloquently—of a nation dedicated to the Four Freedom everywhere in the world
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

167. The US in the Asia-Pacific: Continuing rebalance towards a region in flux

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The evolving Asia-Pacific region is marked by increased balancing strategies, the forging of flexible partnerships between countries, and economic interconnectedness. In order to retain a central role and achieve a new equilibrium, the US will need to adapt to these changes.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, Geopolitics, and Political stability
Political Geography:: America and Asia-Pacific

168. Possible Benefits of American Parameters for the Two-State Solution.

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: As US President Barack Obama’s term in office is nearing its end, he may choose to present parameters for an Israeli-Palestinian final-status agreement before departing from the White House, similar to what President Bill Clinton did in 2000. The window of opportunity for this is between the US presidential elections (November 8, 2016) to the inauguration of the next president (January 20, 2017).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: America, Israel, and Palestine

169. Lessons from Cyprus for Israel-Palestine: Can Negotiations Still Work?

Author:: Dahlia Scheindlin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Cyprus conflict has been a protracted, unresolved conflict for roughly five decades. The two conflicts share ethno-nationalist and territorial dimensions; tension between a sovereign state and a sub-state entity, and a hostile military presence; decades of failed negotiations, with both sides showing ambiguous commitment to the intended political framework for resolution (two states, or a federated state, respectively); and high involvement of the international community. This paper maps points of comparison related to conflict resolution efforts in both cases, including references to the civil society, public, political leadership, and negotiation processes.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel and Palestine

170. Who Will Inherit Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas?

Author:: Ido Zelkovitz
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Fatah movement and the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Movement) leadership are experiencing a deep internal crisis. In 1969, Fatah leader Yassir Arafat took control of PLO institutions and imposed a political containment policy, combined with a heavy hand, against his opponents. Since then, the Palestinian national liberation movement has been characterized by a highly centralized authority structure. Mahmoud Abbas, an absolute ruler, inherited three ‘hats’ from his predecessor Arafat: In addition to serving as Chairman of the PLO’s Executive Committee and President of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas also serves as Chairman of the Fatah movement. Fatah is the ruling party in PLO institutions, and constitutes the political backbone of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian justification for the establishment of such centralized rule was the complexity of the negotiations that were held with Israel in the 1990s.
Topic:: Peace Studies, International Affairs, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Palestine

171. Turkey’s coup attempt

Author:: Lauren Baker
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Late in the evening of July 15, a faction of the Turkish army blocked key bridges into Istanbul and occupied several locations throughout the country. The attempted coup failed before morning, but its consequences will reverberate far into the future. The government’s response was immediate and harsh: mass arrests and a purge of not only the military, but also civil servants, judges, academics, and political opponents. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned cleric Fethullah Gulen as the chief conspirator and demanded his extradition from self-imposed exile in the United States. Meanwhile, some opponents of Erdogan suggest that the government orchestrated the attempt as a “false flag” operation to consolidate power and crackdown on dissidents. Turkey is not new to coups, but looking at previous conflicts and the political science literature on coups can tell us why this failed attempt is unique and what its repercussions will be in Turkey and the broader Middle East. The pieces in POMEPS Briefing 30 offer insightful and timely analysis from top scholars of the region published in the Monkey Cage blog on the Washington Post.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

172. Iran’s 2016 election

Author:: Lauren Baker
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: On February 26, 2016, Iran held elections for its Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with choosing the next supreme leader, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly (its parliament or majlis). As the first major round of voting since 2015’s historic Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action nuclear agreement, the world watched the results closely — and Iran’s leaders leveraged this international focus. While many reformist candidates were barred from running, and those who did were censored on state media, new forms of communication and social media aided existing organizing networks for a strong showing for the reformist candidates, most notably in Tehran. Coalitions between moderates and reformists potentially herald a new era of politics in the Islamic Republic, though it has yet to be seen if these changes will translate mean greater democracy. POMEPS Briefing 29 collects a series of reflections from top regional scholars that provide political context and important analysis of these watershed elections
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

173. The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism

Author:: Lauren Baker
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 men, including prominent cleric and political activist Nimr al-Nimr. This sparked immediate backlash, especially among domestic and global Shiite communities. Unfortunately, such rising sectarian tensions are nothing new in the region. Although the media is quick to highlight the Sunni-Shiite divide, it generally points to this split as the root cause of conflicts. How are we to get beyond this primordialist rhetoric and study the real impacts and causes of sectarianism in the region? POMEPS Briefing 28, “The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism,” collects 16 pieces previously published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage to provide a more nuanced look of this divisive trend. There is a growing body of scholarship that places sectarianism within the study of comparative politics and international relations, rather than treating sectarian identity as an unchanging, essentialist trait. Authors in this collection demonstrate how political elites use sectarian language to legitimize authoritarian rule, consolidate power, and rally against internal and external foes. What appear on the surface as entrenched confessional divides are often more about political and economic power than religion. Interested readers should also look at the 2013 POMEPS Studies 4 “The Politics of Sectarianism,” much of which remains relevant today. Analysis of individual Gulf states’ domestic and geopolitical maneuvering supports this theoretical framework. In Saudi Arabia, the new leadership is able to refocus attention away from its international and domestic failures by increasing pressure on Shiite dissidents and provoking its main regional rival, Iran. And, in the wake of the nuclear agreement, the increasing Iranian influence gives Saudi Arabia another reason to amp up the sectarian vehemence. Meanwhile in Yemen, the labels of sectarianism fail to tell the whole story, while in Iraq and Syria violence in the name of sectarian identity continues to polarize and entrench both sides. The Arab uprisings challenged the traditional regional powers, and Sunni leaders continue to vie for prominence in this new order. Meanwhile, the increasing use of information technology and social media reinforces existing communities, while further polarizing users and citizens.
Topic:: International Affairs and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Gulf Nations

174. ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: While the close British decision to get out of the European Union was made in a referendum a while ago on 23 June, there is still the feeling in the UK: What have we done? Where do we go? How do we get there? Questions that should have been asked at the referendum, rather than after it. But there you are. When raw emotion and shallow argument reign, profound decisions are made without proper reflection or preparation. Since then the question has also been raised whether or not such a thing could occur in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It won’t but then again it may. First of all, let’s be clear. It is not likely there will ever be such a surplus of democracy in ASEAN, whether among individual member states or as a group, that there could be an ‘In or Out’ referendum like the one which resulted in Brexit.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

175. The 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign: Changing Discourse on Palestine

Author:: Phyllis Bennis
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public’s “ignorance” on Israel/ Palestine.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel and Palestine

176. 2016 Presidential Race Reveals the Systemic Crisis in American Society

Author:: Andrey Korobkov
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: The 2016 electoral campaign outcome came like a complete bolt out of the blue for the American establishment, including the ruling elites, as well as academics, journalists, and other groups safeguarding the elites’ interests. Ironically, the showy campaign and the scandalous behavior of US billionaire and TV star Donald Trump, now 45th President-elect, overshadowed the fact that such a candidate per se exposed a deep systemic crisis in American society. Both the general public and professionals had overlooked the phenomenon. The crisis is caused by the exhausted potential of the US political and socio-economic system, which took shape in the 1960s and is over 50 years old. That is why the problems that the campaign laid bare will not merely fade away after the elections.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, International Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:: America

177. Beyond the confrontation. Interview with Edward Luttwak

Author:: Edward Luttwak
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: In the recent months the US-Russian relations have been in this weird place where Russia suddenly emerged again as a topic of a heated and very controversial electoral campaign and again in a form of an Evil Empire. The relations have been strained since 2014 following the events in Crimea, Ukraine and the sanctions rounds even though the same two countries managed to cooperate around Iran, and were rubbing shoulders in Syria. The recent storm has been caused by the leakage of the Democratic party emails, allegedly done by Moscow with the end goal to undermine Hillary Clinton (who is holding firm anti-Russian position) and support Donald Trump (who has praised Vladimir Putin in the past). With the elections taking place this week, Rethinking Russia spoke to an influential Republican geostrategist, CSIS senior associate Edward Luttwak about the current state of the Russian-American elections.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

178. Less is Better in US-Russian Relations Today

Author:: Thomas Graham
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: Beware of rapid improvement in US-Russian relations. It cannot be sustained, and it always ends in sorrow for both countries. That at least is the history of relations since the end of the Cold War, to which each American president – Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – can attest.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

179. Comments Following Hot on the Heels of Donald Trump’s Triumph

Author:: Andrey Korobkov
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: The 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential elections were held on November 8, 2016. Republican Donald Trump won the White House. Following the elections, «Rethinking Russia» think-tank has collected a set of comments by Russian and foreign experts.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

180. Moldova to choose between East and West

Author:: Danielle Ryan
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: As the world comes to terms with the knowledge that Donald Trump will soon be handed the keys to the White House, Moldovans are preparing to vote in a runoff presidential election which will set their country either on a firmly pro-Western course or on the path toward better relations with Russia.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Moldavia

181. Overcoming Babylon

Author:: Yan Vaslavskiy
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: The 13th Valdai Discussion Club session was held in Sochi October 24-27. Ever since its establishment in 2004, the Club has gained the reputation, first of all, as a forum for Russian and foreign experts to compare notes on a wide range of international issues. Secondly, the President of Russia drops into the exclusive club on quite a regular basis.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

182. Primakov Readings

Author:: Tatyana Alekseeva
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

183. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead

Author:: Bryan MacDonald
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

184. The everyday and the existential: how Clinton and Trump challenge transatlantic relations

Author:: Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The transatlantic relationship is likely to face difficult challenges whatever the result of the US election. If Trump wins he will launch a revolutionary presidency — pulling back from NATO and other security guarantees, undermining key parts of the global free trade regime and building closer relations with strong-man leaders than allies. Even if Hillary is elected the transatlantic relationship could still face difficult albeit more everyday challenges. Her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity on Russia. Europe would be foolish not to learn lessons from the experience of Trump’s candidacy. Trump represents only an extreme version of a growing feeling in the United States that, in a time of relative decline, the country is getting a raw deal from its allies. The EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defence and build resilience against a potentially more self-interested US.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

185. Reforms, New Elites, and Old Structures How to Win the Battle for a New Ukraine?

Author:: Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In the two years since its “Revolution of Dignity” – also known as Euromaidan – Ukraine has launched important reform initiatives. Most of them are still in the inception phase, however, and much remains to be done to ensure their sustainability. The past two years have made clear the enormity of the challenge Ukraine faces in its transformation. At the same time, it has also shown unprece- dentedly strong determination on the part of new reform-minded actors to overhaul the old system. Ukraine today can best understood as a battlefield: the old system and its structures are fighting for their survival, as new actors – from both within the system and outside it – push for a new social contract. This struggle is taking place on an everyday basis at different levels, national and local, in a number of different reform areas. External actors can best contribute by giving stronger sup- port to reformers while promoting development of institutions that limit the space for vested interests to persist. Special attention should be paid to enforcing and implementing already adopted decisions and new laws that change the rules of the game.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Ukraine

186. Corruption: A Danger to Democracy in Europe and Eurasia

Author:: Christopher Davidson
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

187. America's Insatiable Demand for Drugs: Examining Alternative Approaches

Author:: David W Murray
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs
Topic:: War on Drugs and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

188. White House Narratives on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:: Michael Scott Doran
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives
Topic:: International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

189. A Legislative Hearing on Four Communications Bills

Author:: Robert M McDowell
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

190. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

191. Tunisia’s Volatile Transition to Democracy

Author:: Lauren Baker
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: On October 9, the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its work shepherding a peaceful transition of power. This accolade highlighted Tunisia’s success creating compromise and building coalition, while avoiding much of the violence and authoritarian backsliding of its neighbors. What lessons can be learned from its example, and what challenges still await this fledgling democracy? POMEPS Briefing 27 “Tunisia’s Volatile Transition to Democracy” brings together 20 essential articles published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage that illuminate this small but important state’s internal politics and regional impact. The National Dialogue came at a pivotal moment for the nascent Tunisian democracy. As trust in its first democratically elected government waned, the nation had to navigate the resignation of the Troika government, without following Egypt’s path to anti-Islamist authoritarianism. The parliamentary and presidential elections of 2014 marked a democratic milestone as the centrist Nidaa Tunis took over from Islamist Ennahda, then — to the frustration of some members in both parties — brought it into a coalition government. The contrast between the fate of Islamists in Tunisia and Egypt on one hand and Turkey on the other is marked. However, despite these notable achievements, the Tunisian democracy has failed to represent a significant portion of the population and overall confidence in the democratic process is slipping. Many of the revolutionaries who initially participated in the uprisings remain disenchanted with their options for representation. Meanwhile, citizens in the interior continue to struggle with staggering levels of unemployment, as elites work the outdated system to their advantage. Though it was the main motivator for the revolution, the economic situation in the country has made little progress. Citizens must also balance their desire for personal freedoms with the need for security, and recent terror attacks have done little to assuage these concerns.
Topic:: Democratization, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Tunisia

192. The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective

Author:: Bryan R. Gibson
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: After nearly 20 months of near continuous negotiations, in 2015 Iran and the P5+1 reached a deal designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capability in exchange for relief from the sanctions that have been crippling its economy over the course of the past decade. How was this momentous agreement reached? This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations and the tireless international effort to prevent domestic political crises from derailing the negotiations.
Topic:: International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iran

193. China-EU Relations and the Future of European Soft Power

Author:: Karine Lisbonne-de Vergeron
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: espite obvious differences, the EU’s most comprehensive partnership with an emerging power has been with China. This Strategic Update argues that this is partly due to China's identification with Europe's ancient culture and summarises current 'soft power' diplomacy.
Topic:: International Affairs and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: China and European Union

194. Common EU Policies on Authorised Immigration

Author:: Georgia Mavrodi
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The idea of 'Fortress Europe' has dominated debates on EU immigration policies from the 1990s to current concerns in the Mediterranean. However, this focus on security and illegal migration has obscured important developments in EU policy on authorised migration. This strategic update analyses the construction of common EU policies that recognise the need for particular categories of international migrants.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: European Union

195. In Policy in the Post Crisis Era

Author:: Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007- 08, observers of international markets disagreed about the likely response of the World Trade Organization.1 Pointing to a contraction of global trade flows by 9 percent in 2009, some commentators suggested that the WTO’s rules were incapable of stemming a tide of increasing protectionism.2 Still, others cautioned that overzealous regulation of national industrial policies by the WTO would limit distressed governments’ ability to cope. Who was right?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

196. The Engagement of Arab Gulf States in Egypt and Tunisia since 2011

Author:: Sebastian Sons and Inken Wiese
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This study documents the various forms and measures of political and economic assistance provided by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar to Egypt and Tunisia since the upheavals of 2011. It also analyzes the impact Gulf donor countries had on political and economic development within Egypt and Tunisia, particularly with regard to democratization and inclusive socio economic change. Economically, efforts undertaken by the Gulf states were inten ded to stabilize the two countries, for example by helping them overcome budget de cits. While their business investments are not trickling down to the economi cally marginalized segments of society, some of the Gulffunded development projects have been geared toward fueling more inclusive growth. Due to limited coordination between Arab and Western donor countries, however, there has thus far been little alignment of projects taking place in the same sectors. As a result, the potential for synergies between these projects has remained untapped. In po litical terms, as was expected, the Gulf states did not engage in efforts to promote more democratization. Indeed, in Egypt the assistance provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE even contributed to a return to the pre2011 order. For Germany and its partners to engage the Gulf states more intensively on governance matters and to create incentives, deeper knowledge is required about how political decisions are made in the Gulf. This is also essential for developing Germany’s muchneeded general strategy toward the Gulf states, which is currently lacking. The Deauville Partnership is a useful forum for improving and increasing future coordination.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Gulf Nations

197. The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective

Author:: Brian Gibson
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations and the tireless international effort to prevent domestic political crises from derailing the negotiations.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

198. Syria and the Islamic State

Author:: POMEPS
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Syria’s nearly four year civil war took a dramatic new turn this month as the United States and its coalition partners began bombing militants from the Islamic State group (formerly know as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jubhat al-Nusra. The U.S. intervention opens up profound uncertainties about the objective and targets of the military action, the responses of the dizzying array of actors on the ground, and the potential for escalation. In December 2013, POMEPS published “The Political Science of Syria’s War,” a collection of original essays by many of the top civil wars and insurgencies scholars, which helped to place the Syrian war into a broad theoretical and comparative perspective. This new collection of articles originally published on “The Monkey Cage” explores the evolution of the conflict, the nature of the Islamic State, and key debates about Syria’s horrific war.
Topic:: War and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

199. Iraq Between Maliki and the Islamic State

Author:: POMEPS
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Iraq’s long-simmering political conflicts and violence erupted in June with the stunning capture of Mosul and advances toward Baghdad by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The collapse of the Iraqi army and the rapid seizure of territory by ISIS took most observers by surprise, but the crisis had been developing for years. This POMEPS Briefing collects more than a dozen recent articles by academics writing for The Monkey Cage and other leading online publications that explore both the immediate crisis and its underlying causes.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iraq

200. Turkey’s Turmoil

Author:: POMEPS
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan occupied a dominant political position not too long ago. In June 2011, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won nearly 60 percent of the seats in parliament while expanding its lead over its closest competitor. Turkey seemed well primed to take advantage of the Arab uprisings, with its independent foreign policy and criticism of Israel playing well with Arab audiences. Erdogan even seemed keen to find a resolution to the long-running struggle with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and reconcile with the country’s Kurdish citizens. Those days seem distant indeed. For at least the last six months, Erdogan has struggled to respond to sustained popular protests, a growing corruption scandal, a stalled peace process with the PKK, a deeply unpopular and ineffective Syria policy, and dissent from within his own party. How did Erdogan’s fortunes reverse so quickly? Are his problems primarily the natural decay of a leader too long in power or do they speak to deeper problems with his party’s ideology or the foundations of Turkish democracy? The 14 deeply researched and analytically powerful Foreign Policy Middle East Channel essays collected in this POMEPS Briefing go deeply into the origins, dynamics, and likely implications of Turkey’s new political scene.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

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