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52. Roundtable on Timothy J. Lynch, In the Shadow of the Cold War: American Foreign Policy from George Bush Sr. to Donald Trump
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Engel, R. Joseph Parrott, Heather Marie Stur, Steven J. Brady, and Timothy Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Roundtable on Timothy J. Lynch, In the Shadow of the Cold War: American Foreign Policy from George Bush Sr. to Donald Trump
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, American Presidency, Post Cold War, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
53. In search of a European Russia strategy
- Author:
- Tony van der Togt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- A global multilateral rules-based order, supported by a pro-active and interventionist United States, is gradually being replaced by a more fragmented world, in which geopolitics and geo-economics are becoming the dominant factors and universal rules, norms, and values are increasingly questioned. For the EU such developments are particularly challenging, as it has long perceived itself as a post-Westphalian soft power, mainly projecting its norms and values in its relations with both its direct neighbors and the world at large. A more isolationist US, a more assertive Russia, and the growing global influence of China have raised questions about the EU’s place and role in the world, which become even more pertinent after Brexit. Therefore, Commission President Von der Leyen intends to lead a “geopolitical Commission” and we are hearing calls for European strategic autonomy or even strategic sovereignty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
54. The Swiss Model vs. Swedish Model in Dealing with China
- Author:
- Joseph de Weck
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Do you want to know how Beijing would like Europe to act? Take a look at Switzerland. Switzerland and China have been close for decades. It was the first Western nation to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in January 1950. Bern wanted to protect investments in the new People’s Republic from nationalization and hoped Swiss industry could lend a hand in rebuilding China’s infrastructure after the civil war. Being friendly to China paid off, but only 30 years later, once reformer Deng Xiaoping took the reins of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In 1980, Swiss elevator producer Schindler was the first foreign company to do a joint venture in China. Today, Switzerland is the only continental European country to have a free trade agreement (FTA) with China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Switzerland, and Sweden
55. Macron Looks East: The French president’s visit to the Baltics offers an opportunity for closer coordination with Germany on Russia policy
- Author:
- Claire Demesmay and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, France, Germany, and Baltic States
56. Mismatched Expectations are Straining EU-Ukraine Relations: Strengthening Mutual Trust and Credibility Should Remain Key Priority
- Author:
- Cristina Gherasimov
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Despite welcoming signs from the recent EU-Ukraine Summit, the underlying problems still loom large in this special relationship. The EU is running out of tools to incentivize more difficult reforms, and Ukraine is running out of arguments why it is unable to tackle corruption, oligarchs, and consolidate rule of law. With growing geopolitical turmoil in the region, a further strengthening of this partnership should be a priority. The risk of an increasing anti-Western backlash in Ukraine should not be underestimated.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
57. Armenia's Foreign Policy: Where values meet constraints
- Author:
- Alexander Iskandaryan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The official foreign policy doctrine of Armenia is called "complementarism"; the idea at the core of this approach is that various foreign policy dimensions can and should complement each other and need not be perceived as mutually exclusive.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Complementarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, and Armenia
58. How Europe Should Approach China
- Author:
- Nicola Casarini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Should the EU enforce a containment policy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC – or simply China), joining efforts undertaken by US President Donald Trump, who has unleashed a trade and technological war against Beijing with the aim of permanently subordinating the Asian giant to the West? Or should the EU continue its engagement policy towards Beijing – and even seek to maximise Sino-European ties to put limits on those US unilateral policies that are detrimental to Europe’s interests and fundamental values? What would be the best policy mix of engagement and containment for EU–China relations? And to what extent should the EU align its China policy with that of the US?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, United States of America, and European Union
59. Averting a Global Calamity? Trump and Xi at the G20
- Author:
- John Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The outlines of a trade deal between the United States and China are there. But without a return to the negotiating table, the dispute could rapidly escalate, magnifying the damage to world growth. With the Osaka G20 meeting looming, Chinese analysts and policymakers visited in Beijing are pessimistic about the prospects for a trade deal with the United States. If they are right, global financial markets are in for a much wilder shock than anything yet seen in this quarrel. Yet much of a deal has already been agreed, while the consequences of not reaching a deal have become increasingly dire.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
60. Potential Gains: Why Did India Exempt the Iranian Oil Payments from Taxes?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- India has recently exempted Iranian oil payments from taxes and fees, in a move aimed at fostering its relations with Tehran, in the wake of the US temporary waivers, in November, to India along with seven other countries from the sanctions on Iranian oil imports, in order to be able to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar. The US waivers have allowed India to resume trade and investment relations with Iran, albeit in a limited manner. However, despite the expected gains, economic relations between India and Iran will hinge on the extent to which the US administration will renew the waivers granted to the eight countries, to continue buying Iranian oil after the current grace period expires.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Oil, Sanctions, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Iran, South Asia, Middle East, India, North America, and United States of America
61. South Sudan and Israel: A love affair in a changing region?
- Author:
- Haim Koren
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Haim Koren analyzes the ongoing relationship between Israel and South Sudan. From the beginning, it made strategic sense for Israel to provide military aid to rebels in South Sudan. This would serve as a useful distraction to Egypt and Sudan, and would open a new and vulnerable front against the Arab World. However, it wasn’t until the June 1967 war that Israel truly acted upon this opportunity, following Khartoum’s decision to support Egypt in that conflict. [1] Joseph Lago, then the leader of the South Sudanese Anya-Nya ("Viper Venom") guerrilla organization, appealed desperately to Israel, asking it to help in preventing integration of Sudanese units within the Egyptian army by pinning them down in an ongoing conflict with the fighters of South Sudan. This would carry a number of advantages for Israel, including strengthening Israel’s operational connections with Kenya and Ethiopia, which were states within Israel’s geo-strategic ‘second circle.’ Providing such aid would also carry moral weight: Israel would help a nation struggling for independence against what south Sudanese felt to be Islamic “tyranny.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, and South Sudan
62. Morocco’s pro-active diplomacy, two years after (re)joining the African Union
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Rina Bassist analyzes Morocco's motivations for joining the African Union, and the concomitant evolution of its regional policy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- North Africa, Morocco, and Africa
63. A Roundtable on Jasper M. Trautsch, The Genesis of America: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Formation of National Identity, 1793-1815
- Author:
- Todd Estes, William E. Weeks, Walter L. Hixson, David C. Hendrickson, and Jasper M. Trautsch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Jasper M. Trautsch, The Genesis of America: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Formation of National Identity, 1793-1815
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States
64. A Roundtable on John M. Thompson, Great Power Rising: Theodore Roosevelt and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Thomas J. Knock, Nicole M. Phelps, Jeremi Suri, Robert David Johnson, Ellen D. Tillman, and Jack (John M.) Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on John M. Thompson, Great Power Rising: Theodore Roosevelt and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, American Presidency, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States
65. A Roundtable on Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam
- Author:
- Amanda Demmer, Richard A. Moss, Scott Laderman, Luke A. Nichter, David F. Schmitz, and Robert K. Brigham
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, War, History, Vietnam War, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Vietnam
66. Intelligence, U.S. Foreign Relations, and Historical Amnesia
- Author:
- Calder Walton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Spies, poisonings, Russian election meddling, disinformation, FBI scandals, international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, mass surveillance, cyber espionage, and data harvesting: the use and abuse of intelligence is one of the most contested and scrutinized subjects in contemporary news and current affairs. It generates almost daily news headlines across the globe. For anyone on social media, it often seems as if barely an hour passes without another spy scandal breaking. Such scandals are the subjects of many heated dinner-party conversations on university campuses.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Intelligence, History, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
67. The Diplomatic Character(s) of the Early Republic
- Author:
- Katrina Ponti
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- I n its early years the United States, a nation attempting to distinguish itself from the monarchal norms of Europe, sought to arrange its own rules of foreign engagement. What was the diplomacy of a republic supposed to look like? Who would conduct the activities of foreign affairs? Thanks to the formidable digital project Founders Online a cooperative effort from the National Archives and the University of Virginia Press, one can begin to trace the development of American diplomacy through its first thirty fragile years, 1783–1812.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States
68. A Roundtable on Grant Madsen, Sovereign Soldiers: How the U.S. Military Transformed the Global Economy After World War II
- Author:
- Laura Hein, Michael J. Hogan, Aaron O'Connell, Carolyn Eisenberg, Curt Cardwell, and Grant Madsen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Grant Madsen, Sovereign Soldiers: How the U.S. Military Transformed the Global Economy After World War II
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, World War II, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States
69. Strengthening US Relations with ASEAN: A Critical Element of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy
- Author:
- East-West Wire
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With a population of 650 million and an annual GDP of $2.8 trillion, ASEAN is a key component of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Two visitors to the East-West Center, Kavi Chongkittavorn and Anu Anwar, emphasized that the United States needs to take several steps to strengthen working relations with ASEAN. Priorities for the Trump administration include: Attend the annual ASEAN-sponsored East Asia Summit; Establish personal rapport with ASEAN leaders; Participate actively in all ASEAN-led mechanisms, including the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus, and the Lower Mekong Initiative; Appoint an American envoy to ASEAN, a position that has been vacant for more than 30 months; Maintain the ASEAN-focused programs and activities initiated under previous US administrations; Expand educational, cultural, and youth programs; Strengthen the US-ASEAN security commitment, in particular maritime and cyber security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
70. Kazakhs Wary of Chinese Embrace as BRI Gathers Steam
- Author:
- Philippe Le Corre
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Kazakhstan is one of China’s direct neighbours, and a prominent one by size and border. As the Chinese proverb states, “a close neighbour is more valuable than a distant relative”,[1] hence the importance of Sino-Kazakh ties, especially at a time when Beijing tries to promote its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) across Eurasia. The country has a 1782.75 km-long border with China, and shares much history and people with the former Middle Kingdom. Although data is sparse, it is known that many Uyghurs –the main tribe of Xinjiang, China’s troubled autonomous region – live in Kazakhstan. There are also ethnic Kazakhs living on the Chinese side, in Xinjiang (many of them facing great political difficulties, if not persecutions).
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China
71. Trump Isn’t Really Trying to End America’s Wars
- Author:
- Andrew J. Bacevich
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Let us stipulate at the outset that President Trump is a vulgar and dishonest fraud without a principled bone in his body. Yet history is nothing if not a tale overflowing with irony. Despite his massive shortcomings, President Trump appears intent on recalibrating America’s role in the world. Initiating a long-overdue process of aligning U.S. policy with actually existing global conditions just may prove to be his providentially anointed function.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
72. Trump’s Betrayal of the Kurds Is Terrible, But the Answer Is Not Endless War
- Author:
- Khury Petersen-Smith
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- It is sickening that the U.S. would deliver the Kurds to Turkish violence, but that doesn’t mean we should embrace the U.S. presence in Syria.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
73. Five years after Maidan: Toward a Greater Eurasia?
- Author:
- LSE Ideas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This report, building on a workshop held at LSE IDEAS in December 2018 and supported by the Horizon 2020 UPTAKE and Global Challenges Research Fund COMPASS projects, brings together some of the UK’s foremost scholars on Russia, the EU and the post-Soviet space to evaluate the challenges and opportunities facing Russia’s 'Greater Eurasia’ foreign policy concept.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
74. Business and Private Diplomacy:A Potential Catalyst for Sustainable Peace
- Author:
- Misha Nagelmackers-Voinov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Long considered a natural partner for peace through economic diplomacy and bilateral trade agreements, business has increasingly become ignored or demonised. The private sector comprises a wide diversity of organisations and is the part of the economy that is not run by a state, but by individuals and companies for profit. Small businesses/micro-companies serve as a good starting point for a conflict resolution process because they often constitute the only form of economic activity in a conflict zone. MNCs have a range of options to respond to conflict, but cannot openly take part in conflict resolution and peacebuilding initiatives, and rarely become involved officially. Track Two diplomacy is their more likely area of involvement. The United Nations has frequently supported the view that the private sector can be a powerful agent of change. However, the UN still engages only two players in conflict resolution and peacebuilding: civil society/NGOs and armed actors. UN peace operations have never been expressly mandated to consult with business or use its influence to build peace. Combining the resources, expertise and leverage of all possible actors would produce a more formidable force for peace. World affairs would benefit from integrating the private sector into a new UN system of governance; new routes are possible for a truly inclusive approach, recognising the business sector’s positive contribution to sustainable peace through informal mediation and collaborative engagement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economy, Business, Peace, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- United Nations and Global Focus
75. Endless Endgame: Whither Russia-West Confrontation?
- Author:
- Elkhan Nuriyev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- There are so many global threats impacting the future of the Earth but Western democracies fear only one person – Vladimir Putin. That’s because on almost all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world, Russian President is deftly striking a blow against the collective challenge mounted by the West. It is thus no surprise that the West’s endless dread of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What’s happening in West-Russia relations right now is not a new Cold War. It is not even a renewed East-West divide. It is rather an incredibly high-stakes geopolitical grand game fueled by decades of long-time mutual distrust and competing great power interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
76. A Year after the Start of the Saudi-Emirati Blockade against Qatar. What Are the Consequences for West Africa?
- Author:
- Benjamin Augé
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- On June 5th 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar and agreed to isolate the Emirate via an air and land blockade. These countries decided to punish Qatar under the pretext of a speech the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, would have made on May 23rd, which reiterated the strong ties between his country and Iran.[1] The situation has been at a deadlock for a year, and Qatar refuses to apply the Emirati and Saudi Arabian list of the 13 demands. The latter mainly include the closure of the Al Jazeera TV station and the Turkish military base on its territory, downgrading diplomatic relations with Iran, as well as a total separation with movements such as Hezbollah or even the Muslim Brotherhood.[2] However, although this crisis only pits Persian Gulf countries against each other, apart from Egypt, both sides have tried to win support. Donald Trump has adopted the stance of the Saudi-Emirati side[3] – but the State Department under Rex Tillerson (2017-2018) has always remained cautious –, Europe remains neutral with no leader daring to choose one side rather than another. The confrontation was particularly marked in West Africa. Four countries in this area – Senegal, Mauritania, Chad and Niger – quickly downgraded their diplomatic relations with Qatar shortly after the start of the crisis. However, their strategy vis-à-vis this wealthy gas Emirate has changed considerably over the last twelve months, as Doha's efforts to obtain new support in the rest of West Africa has started to bear fruit.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, West Africa, Senegal, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Gulf Nations
77. ASEAN-Australia Relations: The Suitable Status Quo
- Author:
- Malcolm Cook
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN is more suitable for Australian interests in Southeast Asia than the idea of ASEAN membership. Australian membership in ASEAN is currently not possible. Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN supports Australian policy autonomy and Australia’s engagement with Southeast Asia. The ASEAN–Australia dialogue partner relationship has significant room for growth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Southeast Asia
78. Safeguarding Australia's Security Interests Through Closer Pacific Ties
- Author:
- Greg Colton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security. Inconsistent engagement by Australia, the United States, France and New Zealand in the Pacific Islands region has created space that non-traditional powers have exploited to engage with sovereign Pacific Island states. There is an increasing risk of geostrategic competition in the region, particularly with the growing influence of China and the economic leverage it holds over some indebted Pacific Island nations. The Australian Government should pursue a deliberate strategy of forging stronger links with its traditional partners in the region, and more equitable partnerships with its Pacific Island neighbours, if it is to underpin regional stability and strengthen Australia’s national security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
79. Limits of Rapprochement: Is Iran Betting on Turkey to Confront the US Sanctions?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran has shown a particular interest in improving its bilateral relations with Turkey, mainly at the economic level. This was evident in the visit of Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, to Turkey, on December 20, to participate in the fifth session of the Supreme Council for Strategic Relations between the two countries, accompanied by a mostly economic delegation. Tehran believes that there are several factors, related to developments in the regional and international arenas over the past period, which can help achieve this goal, namely increasing the volume of trade between both countries to USD 30 billion. However, Iran’s betting on the Turkish role seems to have limits due to the ever-changing and unstable nature of Turkish policy, which casts doubts over the possibility of reaching such level of rapprochement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
80. Intertwined Interests: The Political Arrangements in Syria from the Russian Perspective
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Russia seems to be gearing for fresh efforts to reach new political arrangements in Syria, after the balance of power has shifted in favor of the Syrian regime. During a speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club at Sochi resort on October 18, 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country achieved its goals in Syria. He noted that the Russian military intervention was aimed at fighting terrorism and preventing the fragmentation of Syrian territory, invoking the case of Somalia as a model that Russia prevented its recurrence in Syria, adding that the next stage will be devoted to settlement in the United Nations. However, this does not negate the fact that such efforts may encounter many challenges, over the key outstanding issues, foremost among is the position of the Syrian regime itself.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
81. Filling the Void: How Rouhani’s Government Exploits US Sanctions to Enhance its Position
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- With the second batch of US sanctions on Iran, coming into effect today, the government of President Hassan Rouhani is taking preemptive measures to strengthen its ability to confront sanctions. It seeks to exploit the sanctions to endorse its candidates for the four ministerial portfolios whose ministers were dismissed in the past months, following a no-confidence vote in the Consultative Assembly.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Sanctions, Donald Trump, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
82. The "Moving Geography": Why are Scandinavian countries increasingly interested in the Middle East?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The dynamics of the Middle East region have gained special attention from the three Scandinavian countries (Norway, Sweden and Denmark) over the past years. There are numerous indicators for this rising level of interest. The most prominent of which are the establishment of institutes for dialogue and cooperation, launching programs for the Danish-Arab partnership, opening Middle East studies center in a Swedish university, and hosting a new round of dialogue for the parties to the Yemeni conflict. Other indicators include providing funds to support future local elections in Libya, supporting non-governmental organizations aimed at assisting internal displaced persons and refugees through local integration or resettlement, and increasing financial incentives for refugees, who return to their home countries. There are various motives behind the Scandinavian interest in the region, including curbing refugee flows, preventing terrorist attacks, containing the threat of extremism, and confronting the Iranian threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Neutrality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Scandinavia
83. Renewed Differences: Repercussions of the Mounting Tension Between Iran and Europe
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is keen to maintain good relations with the European countries at the current stage because they can help it cope with US pressures. These relations gained added importance after the withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal and the re-imposition of sanctions on Tehran. However, Iran has not changed some elements of its foreign policy, which continually widens the differences between it and European states and may eventually undercut its ability to contain the repercussions of the US sanctions, with the approaching date of the toughest batch of sanctions, set to start on November 5.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, European Union, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Syria
84. Anomie or Imitation? The Werther Effect of Celebrity Suicides on Suicide Rates in 34 OECD Countries, 1960–2014
- Author:
- Mark Lutter, Karlijn L. A Roex, and Daria Tisch
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Anomie and imitation have been prominent mechanisms explaining the Werther effect, i.e., the effect of celebrity suicides on a general population’s suicide rate. This study presents a new approach to empirically disentangle both mechanisms. Imitation theory suggests that celebrities act as role models, and that the Werther effect is triggered by the status of the celebrity in question. Anomie theory, on the other hand, suggests that the Werther effect is triggered by the unexpectedness of the event. To this end, we empirically compare the effects of celebrity suicides with the effects of celebrities who died unexpectedly from causes other than suicide (accidents, illnesses, alcohol abuse). Based on language and page-link data from 3,855 Wikipedia pages of 495 celebrities who committed suicide between 1960 and 2014, we measure the status a celebrity has in a particular country and calculate the potential country-specific imitation effect of their suicide. In the same manner, we measure status effects of celebrities who died unexpectedly from accidents, illnesses, or alcohol abuse to reflect anomie-related effects. We use these measures in a time-series cross-sectional dataset for 34 OECD countries to assess their effects on a country’s overall annual suicide rate. Fixed-effects analyses reveal that country-specific status effects of celebrity suicides lead to significant increases in overall suicide rates, while anomie-related, unexpected celebrity deaths show no effects. The findings remain robust across a number of alternative specifications, such as controlling for further anomic factors at the macro level (divorce or unemployment rate, for instance). We conclude that the results support the imitation mechanism as an essential social explanation for the Werther effect.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Health
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
85. From Silicon Valley to Shenzhen: Dollar Exposures in Chinese Fintech
- Author:
- Michael B Greenwald
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the post-9/11 era, Washington has waged innovative campaigns against terrorism finance, sanctions evasion, and money laundering. Leveraging America’s heavyweight status in the international financial system, the United States Treasury has isolated and bankrupted rogue regimes, global terrorists, and their enablers. As financial technology transforms global business, the traditional financial system faces new competition across a suite of offerings, ranging from brokerage services to peer to peer lending. In no area is this clearer than in mobile payments, where a global hegemon lies ready to exercise its weight, and it is not the United States
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Affairs, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
86. Turkish-German Relations From Conjunctural Cooperation to the Solution of Structural Issues
- Author:
- Zeliha Eliaçık
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- To the contrary of its relatively “new” relations with the United States of America, Turkey’s relations with the West have been established and continued via Europe since the period of the Ottoman Empire.1 The military alliance and cooperation initiated between Turkey and Germany in the late 19th century have gained a human dimension in the frame of the “Turkish Labor Force Agreement” signed upon the settlement of Turkish workers in Germany in the 20th century. Bilateral relations have been maintained without interruption despite occasional fluctuations in the intensity of these relations. Recently, the two countries have maintained closer ties as they both are affected by the U.S. sanctions and “trade wars.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Germany, and Global Focus
87. Preparations for the Nakba March: Hamas’s Cognitive Campaign
- Author:
- Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is heavily engaged in preparations for a the “Great March of Return,” scheduled for May 14, 2018, when thousands of Gaza’s Palestinians will march toward the security fence and position themselves in tent cities along the Israeli border. The event is intended to highlight the Palestinian refugee issue and connect it to the plight of those living the Gaza Strip
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Gaza
88. Israel's Qatari Dilemma
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Qatar’s support for Hamas and its investment in the Gaza Strip, though based more on pragmatism than on ideological identification, suit its foreign policy, which supports political Islam and aims to increase Doha’s influence in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Israel
89. Against the Odds: Civil Society in the Intra-Syrian Talks
- Author:
- Sarah Hellmüller and Marie-Joelle Zahar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- On March 15, 2018, the Syrian armed conflict entered into its eighth year. Since 2011, attempts to facilitate a political solution to the Syrian conflict have either failed or stalled. Amidst this deadlock, one track that has not stalled is the civil society track. Against the odds, progress can be observed at this level as Syrian civil society has become better organized and more tightly interconnected, and as its voice in the process has grown stronger.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Syria
90. U.S. Leverage in South Asia: Enough to Meet Policy Goals?
- Author:
- Fred Strasser
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As the U.S. seeks to advance its interests in South Asia 17 years into the Afghanistan war, a basic policy question unavoidably presents itself: How much leverage does America really have in the region?
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- America and South Asia
91. USIP’s Work on Violent Extremism
- Author:
- USIP
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, transnational and deadly violent extremist movements—such as ISIS, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and al-Shabab—have risen out of instability and conflicts and repeatedly inflamed and perpetuated hostilities. These movements recruit followers and destabilize regions by harnessing agendas and exploiting grievances such as social marginalization, political exclusion, state repression, and lack of access to justice and resources.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
92. WHEN FIGHTING BREAKS OUT – EXPLAINING SUBNATIONAL VARIATION IN CIVIL WAR ONSET
- Author:
- Ore Koren
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Civil war onset is often correctly associated with weak states, such as Afghanistan. Many blame the failure of coalition forces to win the war in Afghanistan on the weakness of the central government (see, e.g., here, here, and here). Conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, and South Sudan, as well as some Latin American countries, further illustrate this view. But while weaker countries are susceptible to civil war, when we look for places within countries where violence will likely occur, this pattern reverses. In our study, to be published next month in ISQ, Anoop Sarbahi and I show that this state-centric approach misses a crucial part of the civil war puzzle: conflicts are more likely to erupt where weak states exercise more control, not less.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil War, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
93. The Dilemma of the EU’s Future Trade Relations with Western Sahara
- Author:
- Guillaume Van der Loo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Following the Court of Justice’s rulings on the Front Polisario, the EU is facing thorny legal and political challenges to include Western Sahara in its trade agreements with Morocco. On 27 February 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) delivered a new judgement in Case C-266/16 Western Sahara Campaign UK concerning the territorial application of an EU-Morocco agreement to Western Sahara, giving rise once again to diplomatic tensions between the EU and Rabat. The Court concluded that neither the Fisheries Agreement (2006) nor the associated Protocol (2013) are applicable to the waters adjacent to the territory of Western Sahara. The Court closely followed the analysis it had made in C-104/16 Council v. Front Polisario, in which it held that the EU-Morocco Association Agreement (AA) and the 2012 agreement liberalising (processed) agricultural and fishery products (the “Liberalisation Agreement”) do not apply to Western Sahara. Whereas the Court clarifies the role of international law in the EU’s external policies in these fascinating cases, it leaves the European Commission in a very difficult situation, both legally and politically, to deal with the policy-consequences of these judgments. Western Sahara is recognised as a non-self-governing territory in accordance with Article 73 of the UN Charter, and the right to self-determination for such territories, Western Sahara in particular, has been stressed several times by different UN Resolutions and the International Court of Justice (e.g. its Advisory Opinion of 1975 on Western Sahara). The largest part of Western Sahara is still controlled by Morocco, which considers this territory to be an integral part of its sovereign territory, while the Front Polisario (the liberalisation movement seeking independence of Western Sahara) controls the remainder. Although the EU and its member states have never recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, the EU has de facto been applying the EU-Morocco Liberalisation Agreement and Fisheries Agreement to (the waters adjacent to) Western Sahara, as confirmed by both the Council and the Commission.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Law, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Western Sahara
94. Difficult Context – Bright Prospects. Outcomes of Russian Parliamentarians’ Visit to Serbia
- Author:
- Alexander Pivovarenko
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- May 5, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma’s Speaker, paid a significant visit to Serbia for working negotiations with President-Elect Aleksandar Vučić, acting Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, President of the National Assembly Maja Gojkovic, Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Irinej and other officials. The parliamentary delegation’s trip came at a difficult time. Montenegro’s accession to NATO and internal political changes in Macedonia are reconfiguring the military and political landscape of the region. All the events are unfolding amid a massive information campaign mounted by the mass media and Western pundits capitalizing on the issue of Russian influence in the Balkans, with yet another information attack being launched on the day of Volodin’s visit. Moreover, Russia’s relations with Montenegro have reached their lowest point over the past year. In its turn, Serbia is completing the phase of consolidation of Vučić’s regime. The agenda includes the creation of a new government, which may require new parliamentary elections. It is noteworthy that the President-Elect, however, fails to command total popular support. At the same time, Vučić is singled out for allegations and fierce criticism for embracing Euro-Atlantic integration. When it comes to Russia’s assets and liabilities in the Balkans, Volodin’s stay in Serbia, therefore, was of particular importance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
95. NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony
- Author:
- Akop Gabrielyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- ANALYSISOPINION NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony 17.07.2017Featured Image Akop A. Gabrielyan – the founder and the leader of the “Consensus” youth NGO, expert in the policy of the post-soviet states. If anything, the central tenet of the Hippocratic oath: first do no harm – Primum non nocere – is the first motto to be applied to today’s dialogue between Russia and NATO, a military and political organization. The dialogue essentially boiling down to interaction between Russia and the United States, the alliance’s leader, has offered fewer grounds for optimism over the years. Noticeably worse relations, whose downward spiraling trend is too serious a phenomenon to be even referred to as “the Cold War”, are degenerating into an agony. This is testified by some experts predicting an unavoidable military conflict and a real deterioration in the situation amid the Ukraine and Syria conflicts that Russia and NATO (the US) treat differently. For instance, Moscow officially suspended a deal with the US to prevent mid-air collisions over Syria in response to America’s attitude towards April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America
96. Cost of Aging
- Author:
- Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In advanced economies around the world, population growth is slowing down and populations are growing older. Economic growth is also slowing, at least in part because of the slow growth of the labor force and of populations as a whole—despite immigration. Many empirical studies have found that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows roughly one to one with declines in labor-force and population growth—a disquieting prospect for the United States and for advanced economies in Asia and Europe. If there are fewer workers to support a growing elderly population and worker productivity remains the same, either consumption must be reduced or labor supply increased—for example, through later retirement. By 2050, the projected slowdown in growth of the labor supply could lead to a drop in consumption of 25 percent in China, 9 percent in the United States, and 13 percent in other high-income countries. The situation could be improved, however, by a rise in labor-force productivity. In fact, standard growth models predict that slower population growth will lead to rising output and wages per worker. The underlying question is whether this higher output per worker will be sufficient to offset the rise in the number of dependents per worker as the population ages. To help answer this question, this article looks more closely at how economic activity varies by age, drawing on national transfer accounts, which measure how people at various ages produce, consume, and save resources. This analysis shows that GDP and national income growth will most certainly slow down as populations age, but the effect on individuals—as measured by per capita income and consumption—may be quite different.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
97. North Korea Policy: Failure is the Only Option
- Author:
- Denny Roy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As many analysts have pointed out, US policy towards North Korea is “failing.” It is true that Pyongyang has declined the US/South Korean offer to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for economic opportuni es and upgraded poli cal rela ons. Instead, the North Korean government remains intensely hos le towards Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, and con nues making progress towards deploying a nuclear‐ pped intercon nental ballis c missile — a frightening prospect.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
98. Tolerating the “Intolerable Partner:” Once Shunned, Bulgaria’s United Patriots Joins the Governing Coalition
- Author:
- John R. Haines
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Several weeks after winning a plurality in Bulgaria’s late March parliamentary election, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov did something unprecedented: he brought the nationalist United Patriots (Obedineni Patrioti) into his coalition government. The United Patriots is an electoral alliance of three parties, the IMRO[2]-Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO-Bulgarsko Natsionalno Dvizhenie), the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria), and Attack (Attaka). Their inclusion in the coalition government has given rise to concern among Bulgaria’s NATO allies (and many Bulgarian themselves) about what the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s Korneliya Ninova called Mr. Borissov’s “floating majority, his unprincipled alliance”[3] (plavashti mnozinstva, bezprintsipni sŭyuzi). That concern is well placed for several reasons. Only a few years ago, even the nationalist IMRO-BND and NFSB excluded the radical Ataka[4] from their electoral alliance dubbed the “Patriotic Front” (Patriotichen front) because of Ataka’s positions on Russia and NATO. Even then, however, the Patriotic Front’s “nationalist profile” (natsionalisticheskiyat profil) was so far to Bulgaria’s political right to cause Mr. Borissov to exclude the Patriotic Front from his coalition government. He did so with the active encouragement of his center-right European People’s Party allies across the European Union. “Nothing against the PF, but unfortunately the things Valeri Simeonov [a PF leader, more about whom anon] proposes do not correspond to our Euro-Atlantic orientation,” said Mr. Borissov at the time.[5]
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Bulgaria
99. The Future of Mexico, Part II: As Mexico City Turns
- Author:
- David Danelo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- On January 29, 2016, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto signed a law changing the official name of Mexico’s capital region from Distrito Federal, or D.F., to Ciudad de Mexico. Beyond altering nearly two centuries of dialectical urban description—the region had been called D.F. since 1824 when Mexico’s first constitution was written—the adjustment grants Ciudad de Mexico a level of autonomous governance similar to the country’s other 31 states. The name change devolved power from Mexico’s federal government “to the citizens of Mexico City” and was presented with great public fanfare. Much of Ciudad de Mexico’s new constitution, which was signed in February 2017 and will become law in September 2018, was crowd-sourced from online petitions and community advocates. With articles enshrining green space and LGBT protections, the document has been hailed by liberal advocates as the most progressive in the Western Hemisphere.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
100. The First Hundred Days: Trump Meets Asia...and Reality
- Author:
- June Teufel Dreyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The first 100 days of a president’s term—the “honeymoon period,” during which his power and influence are believed to be their greatest—are, whether rightly or wrongly, regarded as a predictor of a president’s success during the remainder of his term. Given the often bombastic tone of Candidate Trump’s campaign rhetoric, it was to be expected that the foreign powers against whom much of his vitriol was directed would seek to challenge the determination of President Trump to live up to his promises. And so it has been.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
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