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2. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Identity, History, and Conflict
- Author:
- Jeffrey Mankoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes the biggest threat to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. On February 21, 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a bizarre and at times unhinged speech laying out a long list of grievances as justification for the “special military operation” announced the following day. While these grievances included the long-simmering dispute over the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the shape of the post–Cold War security architecture in Europe, the speech centered on a much more fundamental issue: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity and statehood themselves. It reflected a worldview Putin had long expressed, emphasizing the deep-seated unity among the Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, who all trace their origins to the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth—and suggesting that the modern states of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus should share a political destiny both today and in the future. The corollary to that view is the claim that distinct Ukrainian and Belarusian identities are the product of foreign manipulation and that, today, the West is following in the footsteps of Russia’s imperial rivals in using Ukraine (and Belarus) as part of an “anti-Russia project.” Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus predicated on the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial—and therefore fragile. Putin’s arguments about foreign enemies promoting Ukrainian (and, in a more diffuse way, Belarusian) identity as part of a geopolitical struggle against Russia echo the way many of his predecessors refused to accept the agency of ordinary people seeking autonomy from tsarist or Soviet domination. The historically minded Putin often invokes the ideas of thinkers emphasizing the organic unity of the Russian Empire and its people—especially its Slavic, Orthodox core—in a form of what the historian Timothy Snyder calls the “politics of eternity,” the belief in an unchanging historical essence. The salience that Putin and other Russian elites assign to the idea of Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian unity helps explain the origins of the current conflict, notably why Moscow was willing to risk a large-scale war on its borders when neither Ukraine nor NATO posed any military threat. It also suggests that Moscow’s ambitions extend beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership and encompass a more thorough aspiration to dominate Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically. It also helps explain Russia’s military strategy. Moscow appeared to calculate that enough Ukrainians, at least in the eastern part of the country, would accept some form of reintegration into a Russian sphere of influence because of shared cultural, linguistic, religious, and other ties with Russia. Despite pre-war polls showing large numbers of Ukrainians willing to take up arms to defend their country against a Russian invasion, Moscow’s wager was not entirely implausible given the recentness of the shift and the persistence of family and other ties across the Russian-Ukrainian border. Nonetheless, Russia’s war has become bogged down in no small part because this calculation about Ukrainian identity has proven dramatically wrong.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
3. Is America Really Back?
- Author:
- Thomas Fingar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Following the 2021 Taihe Civilizations Forum, the Taihe International Communications Center hosted an online discussion on October 8 that captures the candid and profound reflections of senior officials whose actions have shaped the course of ties between China and the United States. Dr. Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and former Assistant Secretary of State, and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret.), Senior Fellow at Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, China Forum Expert, and former Director of Center for Security Cooperation of the Office for International Military Cooperation of Ministry of National Defense, were invited to join this dialogue. During their conversation, Dr. Fingar and Senior Colonel Zhou exchanged ideas on important topics such as the current state of China-U.S. relations, the future development of the two countries' bilateral ties, the rationale behind the US foreign policy and the American alliance system, as well as the "extreme competition" that China and the U.S. are trapped in.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
4. The US is Refocusing its Foreign Policy Priorities on the Indo-Pacific: Recalibrating Alliance Politics in a Pivotal Region
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States under President Joe Biden is strengthening efforts to constrain China in the Indo-Pacific region. At least for now, a new US focus on the region is aimed primarily at reinforcing “minilateral” alignments, potentially at the expense of the EU and its member states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Multilateralism, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
5. Can and Will Germany Be a Viable Partner in a U.S. “Pushback” Strategy Towards Russia?
- Author:
- Hannes Adomeit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden, as presidential candidate, is on record as having stated that “the biggest threat to America right now in terms of breaking up our − our security and our alliances − is Russia.” As president, he asserted, “the days of the United States rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions are over.” The first months of his tenure in office have given some substance to such claims and confirmed that the new administration aims at containing and counteracting Russian malign behavior and to impose costs so as to affect the Kremlin’s risk calculus. Can Germany − and most likely will it − be a viable partner in such a U.S. strategy?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Leadership, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
6. Assessing How Foreign State-Owned Enterprises' U.S. Based Operations Disrupt U.S. Jobs
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The entrance of a Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) in the transit passenger railcar manufacturing sector disrupts the current private-sector competitive railcar manufacturing sector in the U.S. In this study, Oxford Economics measures the net effects, stemming from this disruption by quantifying the loss to U.S. jobs, income and GDP that result from anti-competitive SOE practices. Even when domestic protective measures, such as 'Buy America' are put in place loss due to the SOE offshoring key apsects of their supply chain quickly accumulates--especially given the size and duration of municipal transit railcar contracts. We estimate that for every $1 billion in new contracts awarded to a Chinese SOE, the U.S. loses between 3,250 and 5,100 jobs.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Employment, State Actors, Manufacturing, Job Creation, Supply Chains, and Contracts
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
7. “Americanism, not globalism”: President Trump and the American Mission
- Author:
- James Curran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- President Trump may be unwittingly preparing the United States for the end of American global hegemony. President Trump invokes neither the language nor history of the Pax Americana. His America First approach is only hardening, meaning allies will need to think about American power differently. The United States will not become a ‘normal nation’, but the distance between its sense of providential destiny and limited capacity to effect transformational change abroad will only grow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Hegemony, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Australia, North America, and United States of America
8. Government of the People, by the Elite, for the Rich Unequal Responsiveness in an Unlikely Case
- Author:
- Lea Elsässer, Svenja Hense, and Armin Schäfer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Empirical studies have shown that US politics is heavily tilted in favor of the better-off, as political decisions tend to reflect the preferences of the rich while largely ignoring those of the poor and the middle classes. These findings have prompted a lively debate about potential mechanisms that cause this pattern of unequal responsiveness. Existing studies suggest that specific characteristics of the political system are a major explanatory factor – in particular, private donations and campaign financing. We build on these studies but focus for the first time on an entirely different case. In this paper, we ask whether similar patterns of unequal responsiveness are discernible in Germany, which not only is a more egalitarian country, but also funds election campaigns entirely differently from the US. We analyze an original dataset of more than 800 survey questions posed between 1980 and 2013. The questions deal with specific political decisions debated at the time and cover a broad range of politically relevant topics. Our results show a notable association between political decisions and the opinions of the rich, but none or even a negative association for the poor. Representational inequality in Germany thus resembles the findings for the US case, despite its different institutional setting. Against this background, we conclude by discussing potential mechanisms of unequal responsiveness
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- America
9. Will We Derail US Freight Rolling Stock Production?
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- US freight railcar manufacturers contribute $6.5 billion to U.S. GDP and support nearly 65,000 jobs. However, increased global competition and evidence suggesting unfair business practices puts this contribution at risk. Oxford Economics conducted an original study that evaluates the practices of Chinese state-owned enterprises' (SOE) push into the U.S. market and the potential risks to domestic manufacturers and domestic supply chains. The study focuses primarily on U.S. freight railcar production and includes consequences from a similar experience in Australia's freight railcar production, when faced with the entrance of Chinese SOEs.
- Topic:
- Economics, Hegemony, State Actors, and Transportation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific, North America, and United States of America