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32. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Andrew Latham
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
33. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sam Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus
34. Shared Human Values and the Great Powers’ Competition: Trends in the Evolution of the International Relations System
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Unless we change and improve the quality of the international relations system (IRS) – the political toolbox for building a community with a shared future for mankind, for more effective global governance and for a more balanced global partnership for development, we shall miss the historic chance and still open window of opportunity to reach these lofty goals. How to shape such a better functioning IRS? What are its invariant characteristics in the second decade of the 21st century?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Governance, International Relations Theory, Strategic Competition, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
37. CONFLICT MINERALS LEGISLATION: SHOOTING AT THE WRONG TARGET… AGAIN
- Author:
- Marijke Verpoorten and Nik Stoop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- On January 1, 2021, the European Conflict Minerals Act came into force. It aims to regulate the trade in four minerals—tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, also known as 3TG—that are often sourced from conflict-affected countries where the profits may allow armed groups to finance their activities. The regulation aims to break the link between minerals and conflict by ensuring that European Union (EU)-based companies only import minerals from conflict-free sources. If companies import minerals from conflict regions, the law requires them to report where the minerals were mined, the location of processing and trade, and the taxes and fees that were paid.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Conflict, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
38. IS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVING GLOBAL CONFLICT?
- Author:
- Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- While former US President Donald Trump frequently denied man-made climate change, the Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority, including for national security. In line with years of thinking within the defense sector, the Biden-Harris team refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” pointing to risks of regional instability and resource competition driven by worsening environmental conditions. This perspective also aligns with the initiatives of other countries that have pushed climate security in the UN Security Council and other international bodies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Security, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
39. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism
- Author:
- James K. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
40. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?
- Author:
- Jesse Colzani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus