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2. The Italy-Africa Summit 2024 and the Mattei Plan: Towards Cooperation between Equals?
- Author:
- Filippo Simonelli, Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and Leo Goretti
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italy inaugurated its year of G7 presidency with the Italy-Africa summit on 28-29 January in Rome, an event representative of the current government’s ambitions.[1] The long-awaited meeting was the first test for the strategy of “cooperation as equals” with African states that Giorgia Meloni has repeatedly proposed as central to her government's foreign policy. It was also the first occasion to test the real scope of the so-called Mattei Plan for Africa, the project with which the Italian government wants to substantiate this strategy but whose official strategic outline has yet to be announced.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Italy
3. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)
- Author:
- Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
4. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election
- Author:
- Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
5. Fact Sheet: Crisis in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Violence is escalating in Amhara region, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency Nearly 30 clashes between government forces and Fano militias were recorded in Amhara last week, with most concentrated in North Wello and West Gojam zones, though fighting has been spread throughout the region. This marks an almost eightfold increase in armed clashes in the region relative to the weekly average since the start of the crisis in April. While Amhara was among the least volatile regions in the country prior to the start of the northern Ethiopia conflict in 2021, it is now one of the most unstable. Persistent insecurity in Amhara poses a significant threat to the federal government, the Abiy administration, and Ethiopia’s stability at large.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Amhara
6. What America Can Learn from France’s Mistakes in Africa
- Author:
- Komlan Avoulete
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In recent years, France has suffered geopolitical setbacks in Africa. Tensions with Burkina Faso and Mali over French counter-terrorism operations led Paris to withdraw its troops from both of those countries. Russia is exploiting France’s failure to defeat terrorist groups in Africa as well as the feeling among many Africans that Paris exerts undue influence over its former colonies. The United States should learn from France’s mistakes and strive to build partnerships in Africa based on mutual respect, rather than focus too directly on competing with Russia or China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, France, Mali, and United States of America
7. Russian Disinformation in Africa: No Door on this Barn
- Author:
- Dan Whitman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Recent gains by Russian disinformation in Africa make up one of the quickest propaganda victories in history. Wagner Group-Kremlin narratives work to Russia’s material advantage, and to Africa’s strong disadvantage. Understandably, Western governments are skittish toward employing underhanded tactics to counter Russian lies. An alternative to inaction could be to marry Western government resources with the work of non-governmental organizations in Africa and elsewhere. As is sometimes said about climate change, it may already be “too late” to mount efforts to remedy the situation. But that is hardly a reason for doing nothing.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Wagner Group
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, and Eurasia
8. Hamas Allegations Threaten Another Breakdown in US-South Africa Ties
- Author:
- Michael Walsh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- A reported call between South African Minister Naledi Pandor and Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh has renewed concerns that the African National Congress and government of South Africa are undermining US national security and foreign policy in the Middle East. This incident comes quickly on the heels of a springtime allegation that the African National Congress and South African government undermined US national security and foreign policy with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Over the summer, members of Congress called into question the eligibility of South Africa for trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. This was in response to the prior allegation that South Africa transferred arms or enabling technologies to Russia. Prior to next month’s AGOA Forum, there is an expectation that the AGOA eligibility determinations for 2024 will be delivered to Congress. This sets the stage for another potential showdown over the AGOA eligibility of South Africa and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. At this stage, it is unlikely that South Africa will be deemed ineligible for AGOA trade benefits or removed as the host of the AGOA Forum. However, a political debate over its AGOA eligibility could cast a long shadow over the event and lead to another breakdown in the strategic partnership between South Africa and the United States. The White House will want to avoid both of those outcomes.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and United States of America
9. Using Taxation to Fund Military Spending
- Author:
- Nan Tian, Diego Lopes da Silva, and Xiao Liang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- World military expenditure is on the rise. To fund their increases in military spending, options available to governments include tax, debt or revenue from natural resources. Each form of financing has its consequences, economic, political or social. Tax is the prevalent source of finance for governments. The use of tax, and the choice among different types of tax, can have an impact on income inequality and economic growth, among other things. However, no scholarly attention has yet been paid to the use of taxation to fund military spending. Using statistical analysis combined with in-depth case studies sheds light on this use of taxation. The findings—based on data for 100 countries between 1990 and 2020 and reinforced by detailed case studies on Burundi and Ukraine—show that countries in conflict tend to resort to indirect taxation to fund military expenditure. This is particularly true for low-income countries and for countries with an autocratic regime. This association can be consequential, considering the accumulated evidence on the impacts of indirect taxation on income inequality.
- Topic:
- Finance, Military Spending, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Burundi
10. The Soviet Union as a Development Actor in West Africa: An Interview with Alessandro Iandolo on Arrested Development
- Author:
- Alessandro Iandolo and Mirek Tobiáš Hošman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- The recently published work Arrested Development: The Soviet Union in Ghana, Guinea, and Mali, 1955–1968 (Cornell University Press, 2022) explores the Soviet Union’s economic partnership with three newly-independent countries in West Africa during the Nikita Khrushchev era. The Toynbee Prize Foundation interviewed the author, Alessandro Iandolo, on the story and the main arguments of his book. Alongside discussing the emergence of the Soviet Union as an international development actor and the challenges it encountered in post-colonial Africa, Iandolo explained the characteristics of the Soviet development model, its similarities and differences to the Western alternatives, and why the Soviet development assistance in Ghana, Guinea, and Mali was not primarily oriented around spreading the communist ideology. Alessandro Iandolo is a historian of the Soviet Union and the world. His research interests cover the USSR’s economic, intellectual, and political interactions with external ideas, states, and people. His current project investigates intellectual exchanges between Soviet and Latin American economists on theorizing “backwardness” and “dependency.” He is a Lecturer in Soviet and Post-Soviet history at University College London.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Partnerships, and Interview
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Soviet Union, West Africa, Ghana, Mali, and Guinea
11. Overreach in Africa: Rethinking U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy
- Author:
- William Walldorf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Due to an overly broad definition of threat, the United States currently commits far too many military resources to counterterrorism, especially in Africa. The United States is pursuing military action against at least thirteen terrorist groups in Africa, but only one of those groups has the “global reach” to be a threat to Americans. Consequently, the U.S. military is fighting a slew of counterinsurgency—not counterterrorism—wars in Africa today, a strategy that borders on nation-building. Counterintuitively, U.S. security assistance, training, and military activity in Africa since the 2000s has inadvertently aided the growth of terrorist groups in the region. Most concerning, U.S. policy today could be helping to inspire the next generation of global jihadists tomorrow, intent on attacking the United States and its closest democratic allies. U.S. military activity in Africa has expanded significantly over the past decade and a half and this trend will likely continue even further without an intentional course correction. The potential for further mission creep and overexpansion is high. Washington should wind down direct military activity and close most military bases in Africa, while also curbing security assistance to local regimes.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Military Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States of America
12. Sudan's Civil War: Mediation Challenges and the U.S. Role
- Author:
- Yasir Zaidan, Reem Abbas, and Alex Rondos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Three experts assess the conflict’s effects on regional humanitarian and security issues, outlining the requirements for a durable ceasefire.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Egypt, and United States of America
13. Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia
- Author:
- Ben Fishman, Anna Borshchevskaya, and Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 26, Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was detained by members of his special guard and put under house arrest, where he remains under harsh conditions. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani has since declared himself head of the so-called “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland” and appointed a twenty-one-person cabinet on August 8. The coup comes in the wake of military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Sudan over the past three years, demonstrating regional anti-democratic trends amid trans-regional instability. Diplomatic efforts to quell the crisis have failed to date. U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken has made repeated calls to Bazoum, reflecting a commitment to securing his release and returning to “constitutional order.” Bazoum was a close American security partner prior to his arrest and was accorded a prominent role during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington last December. Blinken has also reached out to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, who has better personal ties to the junta; he was once an ally of Bazoum but had recently broken with his successor’s anti-corruption initiatives. This call followed Acting Deputy Secretary Victoria Nuland’s unsuccessful August 8 visit to Niamey, where she was prohibited from meeting with Bazoum or Tchiani. Instead, she spoke with Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, a longtime U.S. security partner who serves as the military’s new chief of staff but would not offer so much as an assurance of Barzoum’s safety, let alone his release or restoration. With the junta rejecting all U.S. and regional diplomatic initiatives, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened military intervention. The alliance’s leaders met on August 10 and agreed to deploy a standby force, though how quickly it can be assembled remains unclear. In neighboring Algeria, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune strongly condemned the junta but said any military intervention in Niger would represent “a direct threat” to his country, declaring, “There will be no solution without us. We are the first people affected.” In Libya—another neighbor keenly attuned to Niger’s stability given persistent smuggling—the Government of National Unity condemned the junta, while the eastern-based warlord Khalifa Haftar condemned the threats by ECOWAS. Elsewhere, Egypt has remained largely silent about the crisis, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quickly denounced the coup and called for Bazoum’s restoration (in part because he is Niger’s first Arab president). The UAE also sent some military vehicles to neighboring Chad, providing additional border security and signaling their growing bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, and Wagner Group
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, West Africa, Niger, and United States of America
14. The EU-Africa partnership and development aid: Assessing the EU’s actorness and effectiveness in development policy
- Author:
- Rym Ayadi and Sara Ronco
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Development aid is considered a policy area where the EU is particularly influential. This CEPS In-Depth Analysis report provides an overview of the evolution of global and European governance in development policy and relations with the African continent. Exploring the period 1995-2021, the research highlights how global governance in development aid and relations with Africa have evolved in terms of both the tools used and the actors involved during the last decades. As supported by the EU, another important pattern is the shift from traditional official development assistance (ODA) to public-private financial frameworks, and from financing development projects to financing investment for infrastructure development. Assessing the dimensions of the EU’s actorness over time reveals an increasing trend, notably concerning its authority, autonomy and cohesion. However, more external dimensions of actorness (such as the opportunity to act and recognition) show a decreasing trend over the time period studied. The need for coherence is one of the main challenges facing the EU if it is to increase its actorness and effectiveness in development policy and its relations with Africa. Future EU policies on migration issues will also play a critical role in the EU’s actorness vis-à-vis Africa. Another challenge will be for the EU to maintain its key role as a development actor, better coordinating its development agencies and financial institutions (both national and international) to implement and coordinate public-private partnerships, co-guarantee schemes and collaborative blended finance platforms. This report is part of a series drawing on the outcomes of the EU-funded TRIGGER (Trends in Global Governance and Europe’s Role) project that ran from 2018 to 2022. Using the conceptual framework developed as part of TRIGGER, the report moves beyond observing the characteristics of the EU as an actor to explore its actorness/effectiveness over time in a specific policy domain – in this case, development policy.
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Finance, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
15. Giorgia Meloni’s Foreign Policy and the Mattei Plan for Africa: Balancing Development and Migration Concerns
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Alissa Pavia
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Despite Italy’s economic significance as the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and founding member of the G7 and NATO, the country has struggled to translate its economic power into political influence. Yet, with Giorgia Meloni’s ascent to power, Italy’s approach to foreign policy appears to be evolving. In fact, since the very beginning of her term, Meloni displayed a rather bold approach towards reshaping Italy’s international status. As the President of the Council of Ministers – analogous to the post of Prime Minister in other countries – Meloni has adopted a distinct posture in addressing issues related to the Southern Mediterranean. Since taking office in October 2022, Meloni has made numerous visits to North Africa, engaging in a diplomatic offensive aimed at reinvigorating Italian policies. In January this year, following in the footsteps of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Meloni travelled to Algeria on her first bilateral visit abroad. Algeria is an instrumental country for Italy due to its vast hydrocarbon reserves and geographical proximity.[1] In 2022, Draghi paved the way for Algeria to become Italy’s top energy supplier, replacing Russia and thus allowing for a swift decoupling from Moscow as the Ukraine war rages on and energy prices continue to soar. Meloni’s posture in Algeria seeks to evidence her willingness to move beyond a mere set of energy memorandums and broaden Italy’s foreign policy to include strategic diplomacy with long-term goals. She described Algeria as Italy’s “most stable, strategic and long-standing” partner in North Africa,[2] and reassured President Tebboune that Italy stands by Algeria. The country has recently felt cornered following Morocco’s joining of the Abraham Accords, a feeling few other countries aside from Italy had the courage to assuage and which had pushed Algeria further towards Russia and China as a result. Meloni’s activism in North Africa did not end there. The prime minister and her cabinet promoted high-level missions and diplomatic efforts with Libyan government officials, allowing Italy to reap diplomatic wins in the energy field. In January, a few weeks after visiting Algeria, Meloni flew to Tripoli for a meeting with Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The visit led to the signing of an 8 billion US dollars gas deal between Italian energy company Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).[3]
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Migration, and Giorgia Meloni
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Italy
16. Financing Pledges and Managing Expectations
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The aim of Egypt’s chairmanship of the latest climate change conference was on the implementation of financing pledges to realise specific goals for mitigating the climate crisis. Yet, limited success was achieved. Going forward, it is necessary to manage expectations and to redirect efforts into what is deliverable.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Egypt, and MENA
17. CAN DEBT RELIEF CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE GOVERNMENTS?
- Author:
- Brett L. Carter
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The African continent is confronting the prospect of a new debt crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on government finances. The Russian government’s war against Ukraine has increased the cost of food and energy, and compelled investors to sell off government bonds in emerging markets. Rising interest rates in the United States will increase the cost of borrowing. The Chinese economy is struggling under the weight of Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” policy and accumulated real estate debt. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund announced that eight countries were in debt distress. By March 2022, 23 were. In June, public debt ratios reached a 20-year high. Africa’s debt-distressed governments “are unlikely to default” in 2022,” The Economist observed, “but face trouble by 2024.” There is some evidence that the debt crisis is especially acute for Africa’s non-democracies. The impending debt crisis coincides with a general sense that Africa is experiencing a democratic recession. Voters are increasingly subject to intimidation and violence. Incumbent presidents are removing term limits. The longstanding norm against military coups is fading.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Debt, World Bank, GDP, Repression, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America
18. DOES THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS ON APARTHEID IN SOUTH AFRICA HOLD CLUES FOR THE UYGHURS?
- Author:
- Maria Lotito
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- A new report from the United Nations finds that China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and that human rights violations are ongoing. The abuse flows from China’s “Strike Hard” campaign, executed to counter separatism and extremism, subjecting Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities to mass detentions, forced labor and sterilizations, cultural suppression, and surveillance. The report comes months after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, before which some governments sympathetic to the Uyghurs’ plight staged diplomatic boycotts, to little avail. The UN report, much like the Olympic boycotts, will change few minds. What does it take to generate intergovernmental consensus around broad-scale human rights violations? Such convergence, even upon opposition to egregious human rights abuse, is rare and difficult to achieve. This is because violating governments are skilled at subverting international human rights norms and onlooking states have many reasons to avoid acting. Abusive practices might be reframed as responsible policy, or covered up. Meanwhile, supposedly compliant governments contend with a panoply of bilateral interests, some incompatible with international norms.
- Topic:
- Apartheid, Human Rights, Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, Soviet Union, and Consensus
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Iceland
19. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections
- Author:
- Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
20. Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mal
- Author:
- Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 30 March 2022, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament launched an inquiry into states’ use of private military contractors (PMC), drawing particular attention to the prominent Russian PMC known as the Wagner Group (UK Parliament, 30 March 2022). The decision to launch the inquiry came as Wagner Group forces deployed to Ukraine, and a series of reports emerged implicating Wagner mercenaries in human rights violations in Mali. This was only one of the latest efforts to investigate the Wagner Group’s activities. Past initiatives came amid heightened international concern over Wagner Group operations in the Central African Republic (CAR). Multiple UN bodies have previously tabled concerns or opened investigations into alleged abuses perpetrated by Wagner mercenaries (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021; UN Info, 31 March 2021). In June 2021, the UN Panel of Experts on CAR tabled reports of “indiscriminate killings” and violence against civilians at the hands of “Russian instructors” to the UN Security Council (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021). The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR (MINUSCA) and Rwandan special forces have also expressed concerns about joint operations with Wagner over alleged human rights violations (UN Info, 31 March 2021; Corbeau News, 13 June 2021). Moreover, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group and Wagner-linked individuals in December 2021 (European Council, 13 December 2021). In light of growing concerns about Wagner’s activities in Mali and their deployment in Ukraine, this report analyzes ACLED data on the group’s engagement in political violence in recent years. It focuses on civilian targeting by the Wagner Group in CAR and Mali, where they have operated alongside state forces since 2018 and 2021, respectively. Analysis of the data reveals several clear trends:
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Armed Forces, Civilians, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, and Central African Republic
21. Powerful tool or passing trend? Meanings and practices of social accountability in the Arab world, and why they matter
- Author:
- Sylvia I. Bergh, Francesco Colin, Hicham Jadaoun, Intissar Kherigi, and Ward Vloeberghs
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Accountable governance has become a frequent demand by ordinary citizens across Arab societies. The region has witnessed a variety of bottom-up citizen-led initiatives in recent years, driven by widespread discontent at the uneven distribution of civil, political and social rights. Various countries have seen the emergence of “participatory” processes such as participatory budgeting, consultative committees, and social audits. These initiatives are often labeled as “social accountability initiatives”, a concept championed by civil society actors and donors alike, to empower citizens and bring about improved public services. What we mean by social accountability here is “any citizen-led action beyond elections that aims to enhance the accountability of state actors”. The concept was promoted by international organizations such as the World Bank, as a “short route to accountability” to strengthen the role of citizens as “service users” and generate greater government responsiveness. But beyond donor strategies, what does social accountability actually mean to local actors in the region? Is it an effective means to bring about improved governance? We studied such initiatives in Lebanon, Tunisia and Morocco to examine how social accountability initiatives are being used by civil society actors in their strategies to make government more accountable to citizens. We found that the concept has many different meanings for people on the ground, and that civil society organizations in the region have developed a range of strategies for pressuring, coercing and cooperating with government to exact accountability. However, our study[1] also shows that doubts remain as to whether such initiatives can lead to systemic change in the region. [1] The study was based on a recent research project funded by the International Institute of Social Study (ISS) at Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR), the Centre of Expertise on Global Governance at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, and Erasmus University College Rotterdam (EUC). It was presented at a recent seminar discussion. We are grateful to Louise Haagh, Elodie Hermsen, and Mark Prins for taking useful notes at this seminar.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Accountability, Social Order, and Social Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Gulf Nations, and MENA
22. The EU vis-à-vis Turmoil in Burkina Faso: Towards Europeanisation?
- Author:
- Francesca Lenzi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In late September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in eight months. In the name of national security, Captain Ibrahim Traoré took control of the country on 30 September, deposing Paul-Henri Damiba, who had come to power through his own coup in January. Insecurity and the inability of the political class to deal with the jihadist threat are among the determining factors that led to two coups in such a short time. The coups unfolded in a context marked by competition between the European Union (EU) – initially led by France, the traditional European hegemon in the region – and Russia for influence in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, and Burkina Faso
23. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin
- Author:
- Leif Brottem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Benin
24. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin
- Author:
- Leif Brottem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Benin
25. US-Africa Leaders Summit: New Beginning or Old Wine in a New Bottle?
- Author:
- Charles A. Ray
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The US-Africa Leaders Summit—which included delegates from forty-nine countries and the African Union—was held in Washington, D.C., from Dec. 13–15, 2022. The summit focused on deepening and expanding the US-Africa partnership and giving voice to Africans in meeting current global challenges. The summit addressed substantive issues like climate change, food security, and human rights, without dwelling on America’s concern about Chinese or Russian influence on the continent. While specific details remain to be worked out, the three most important deliverables of the summit were: US support for the African Union to become a member of the G-20; a promise of $55 billion in aid to Africa over the next three years; and a commitment from President Joe Biden to visit Africa in 2023.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Food Security, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America
26. Political Violence Targeting LGBT+ Communities in Africa
- Author:
- Kaden Paulson-Smith and Timothy Lay
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- New supplemental data on political violence targeting LGBT+ communities add nearly 100 events to the ACLED dataset. This brief analyzes the new data and explores trends in violence across Africa.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, LGBT+, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Africa
27. Surface Tension: ‘Communal’ Violence and Elite Ambitions in South Sudan
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- This report examines recent developments in South Sudan. The country has been experiencing a surge in ‘communal’ violence in the wake of a peace agreement signed in 2018, as the oil economy that has underpinned South Sudanese elite politics for over 15 years begins to disintegrate. This analysis re-interprets ‘communal’ violence in South Sudan, situating conflicts organized around ethnic or sub-ethnic lines in relation to national-level conflicts and inter-elite rivalries. These conflicts and elite dynamics are changing in response to the decarbonization of South Sudan, which is pushing elite ambitions away from the capital and back into provincial areas.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Violence, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
28. Appetite for Destruction: The Military Counter-Revolution in Sudan
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The military coup d’état in Sudan on 25 October 2021 sent shockwaves across the region and through diplomatic circuits. Following the arrest of the civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several prominent senior officials from the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), demonstrators took to the streets across Khartoum. They were confronted by soldiers from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries in the capital, with reports emerging of Central Reserve Police paramilitaries also being deployed (Human Rights Watch, 29 October 2021). Over 10 people have reportedly been killed by state forces thus far and over 160 wounded (Radio Dabanga, 29 October 2021; UN OCHA, 28 October 2021), with at least some victims uninvolved in the demonstrations (Eye Radio, 27 October 2021). Demonstrations have since spread across much of Sudan.
- Topic:
- Violence, Coup, Counterrevolution, Demonstrations, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
29. A Turbulent Run-up to Elections in Somalia
- Author:
- Andrea Carboni and Mohamed Daud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Somalia’s parliamentary and presidential elections are set to take place amidst a general climate of political tensions and violence. A constitutional crisis stoked by months of political deadlock between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’ and the opposition threatens to escalate into a violent conflict pitting federal forces against state-based militias, as well as armed clans with competing loyalties. Across the country, signs of increasing unrest have surfaced in Somalia’s federal states of Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle, exposing the risk of a violent turn in Somalia’s political crisis.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
30. Red Lines: Upheaval and Containment in the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- This is the final part in a series of three analysis features covering unrest in Sudan. The first in the series — Riders on the Storm — explored the dynamics and agendas which resulted in the Juba Peace Agreement. The second — Danse Macabre — examined the origins of the uprising in Sudan and its trajectory following the coup of April 2019. This final analysis situates Sudan’s current upheaval in the context of the Horn of Africa, and extends the scope of analysis to encompass conflict in Ethiopia and the region.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Coup, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Horn of Africa
31. Lessons from the #EndSARS Movement in Nigeria
- Author:
- Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 3 October 2020, in Nigeria, operatives of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) allegedly shot a young man at Wetland Hotel in Ughelli, injuring him. This incident was filmed and went viral, sparking an outcry on social media against SARS using the hashtag #EndSARS. By 8 October, demonstrations associated with this hashtag had begun to increase in size and number throughout Nigeria, peaking at 26 demonstration events on 13 October (see figure below). On 20 October, Nigerian military forces fired live ammunition at #EndSARS demonstrators in Lagos who had sat down in the road to peacefully protest against police brutality, reportedly killing at least 15. Young Nigerians are still reeling from the shock and after effects of the government’s heavy-handed response. Military officials have rejected claims that they killed unarmed protesters, alleging that soldiers had only fired blank bullets (BBC, 15 November 2020). The reaction has widened the distrust between young Nigerians and the government. This analysis identifies three lessons from the #EndSARS movement and highlights what the government’s response means for Nigeria’s fragile political stability and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
32. Transformation through Inclusive Growth: Achieving a Balanced Recovery
- Author:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The Zambian National Budget for the year 2022 was announced by the Minister of Finance on 29th October 2021. This marked the first Budget of the newly elected United Party for National Development Government following the August 12, 2021 national election. As such, this represented the first formal statement of the new Government’s economic policy. While the Budget contains many transformative ideas, it is important to zoom in on the areas where caution is imperative and what those specific details means for the people the Budget is meant to serve, and for the whole economy. This paper therefore analyses the 2022 National Budget under the theme: ‘Transformation through Inclusive Growth: Achieving a Balanced Recovery’. The paper present insights into the key fiscal and macroeconomic priorities, debt management and international financing relations, the real sector policy options to stimulate the balanced and green recovery of the economy and taking development closer to the people. The paper also gives pointers for strengthening the governance environment for effective budget execution and for sidestepping the perils of the ambitious decentralisation programme.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
33. A Review of the Performance of the 2021 First Semester Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s 2021 National Budget is being executed under the theme, “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable.” During the budget planning process the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on economic activity that led the economy to contract by 3% in 2020. This is on the back of the economy having already being vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural weaknesses. Therefore, in line with aspirations to stimulate economic recovery, the 2021 National Budget set the growth target at 1.8%, underscoring a strong desire to crutch the economy to its recovery.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
34. Afrocentric Conceptions of Conflict Transformation: Beyond Ubuntu Mythology and Romantic Traditionalism
- Author:
- Brian Kagoro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Peacebuilding is an overtly political act laden with sociocultural assumptions, preferences and values. It is also an act impelled by the geoeconomic and geopolitical considerations of both the protagonists and some "invisible hands" with a stake in the ongoing conflict. In essence, the process of defining African peacebuilding and its socioeconomic value is both revolutionary and futuristic in pointing to a possible trajectory for the development of the sector beyond its bureaucratic organizational forms. This discussion paper explores the relationship between the African philosophy of Ubuntu and the practice of peacebuilding in historical and contemporary Africa. In particular, it seeks to establish Ubuntu's actual and potential value-added to shaping the theory and praxis of peacebuilding in Africa.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Conflict, Social Roles, and Mythology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
35. Transitional Justice and Silencing the Guns in Africa in the Context of COVID-19: Report on the Fourth African Transitional Justice Forum
- Author:
- Jasmina Brankovic
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The Fourth African Transitional Justice Forum, held 0n 26–28 October 2020, addressed the state of transitional justice on the continent, specifically its contribution to the African Union's 2020 theme of the year, "Silencing the Guns," amid the challenges and opportunities presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Forum panels focused on development, violent extremism, victims' experiences and fundraising in relation to African-led transitional justice.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Violent Extremism, Transitional Justice, Peace, Reconciliation, Pandemic, African Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
36. Ethiopian Perspective: Elections in Strained Dynamics
- Author:
- Anwar Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The election, which was held in Ethiopia on Monday, June 21, 2021, was the most complicated election that the country has witnessed in more than three decades, or, more accurately, since the 1994 constitution was approved. The reason is that this election was held amid lots of internal challenges, not to mention the strong criticism of its legitimacy (both domestically and internationally) even before it was held. Ethiopians are warily looking forward to the results, which are supposed to be announced within a few days, despite that it is not unlikely that these results will escalate the tensions in an already unrest-ridden country.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Conflict, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
37. Compound Crisis Challenges Posed by Sudan’s Faltering Transition
- Author:
- Hamdy Abdul Rahman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Two years after the overthrow of Sudan’s former president Omar al-Bashir, political transition is going through a critical and highly complicated phase. The government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is facing diverse challenges and hurdles, including widespread popular protests against fuel and consumer price increases, as well as resurgence of violence in Darfur region. If the situation remains unchanged, the country can fall in a fresh structural crisis that would prompt key figures of the ousted regime to make a comeback to power. It should be noted that over the past decade, prior to the fall of al-Bashir regime, had already faced huge challenges. The secession of South Sudan caused economic shocks to Sudan, while the civil war did not only damage the Sudanese economy, but also caused an increase in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons. This article seeks to discuss the country’s political transition and challenges facing it while also explaining what the interim government should do to bring the country back to the right track.
- Topic:
- Government, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
38. Restoring the Role: The Algerian mediation role in the region, various motivators and challenges
- Author:
- Mahmoud Gamal
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Algeria's mediation endeavors are based on a well-established foreign policy of creating stability in the region and maintaining the status quo, for fear of any radical change that could lead to chaos and instability. This rule stems mainly from the political memory that has been lingering since the events of the ‘Black Decade’, which almost destroyed Algeria and its stability. This analysis highlights indications of the growing Algerian mediation endeavors in various recent crises in the region, such as the situation in Tunisia following president Kais Saied's decisions on July 25, 2021, the Libyan crisis and the complex political transition, the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia on the other, as well as the crisis in Mali.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Transition, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, Ethiopia, and Mali