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  • Author: Andrew Duff
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: The UK has wasted precious time in the Brexit process. A no deal outcome has become the legal and political default. The new prime minister cannot avoid returning to Mrs May’s deal if he is to avoid no deal. Andrew Duff argues for changes to be made not only to the Political Declaration but also to the Withdrawal Agreement itself. One amendment is needed to buy time: the transition period should be made extendable until the final association agreement enters into force. Such a revision will not breach anyone’s red lines, will obviate the need for the Irish backstop, reassure businesses and citizens, and enable an orderly exit. Duff also argues that the British should pay far more attention to the joint governance of the Withdrawal Agreement. The idea that the UK will become a vassal of the EU is nonsense: in fact, the British will be able to wield influence after Brexit if the new prime minister adopts a positive attitude.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Marco Giuli
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: The United States (US) has always been a key player in the European Union’s energy security, as a supporter of its gas supply diversification plans. The Trump administration is underlining the US’ role as a gas exporter. This shift of tone from a strategic to a commercial approach risks furthering divisions and mistrust among European Union (EU) member states, with potential negative effects for the Energy Union.
  • Topic: Climate Finance, International Development
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Alison Hunter
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: Introduced as an ex ante conditionality in the 2014-2020 Cohesion Policy, Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) require regions to develop smart priorities and direct investment efforts towards growth-oriented innovation. In the space of only four years, S3 has become widely regarded as a success story across the Cohesion Policy community, as a place-based driver of EU competitiveness. For some regions, it has offered scope to deepen existing practices. For others, S3 has introduced new approaches to achieving innovation-oriented growth. There is, however, quite some distance to cover if S3 is to accelerate its support role in delivering EU growth and investment. This would require redefining the role of S3 and re-positioning this in the post-2020 Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF).
  • Topic: Europe Union, Global Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fabian Zuleeg
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: How best to support its industry has been a perennial issue for the European Union (EU). The Commission’s approach has been an attempt to mainstream industrial competitiveness across policy areas. But this hardly constitutes an adequate strategic industrial policy. The EU and its members must recognise that current global pressures require a common and forward-looking approach to ensure that European industry can thrive.
  • Topic: Financial Markets, Global Political Economy
  • Political Geography: European Union
  • Author: Romain Pardo
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement will make its implementation more challenging. The United States (US) had been instrumental in brokering a successful deal in Paris and speeding the ratification process for an early entry into force of the agreement. While the US remains party to the agreement for the next four years, its involvement in upcoming international climate discussions remains uncertain. Meanwhile, policy developments in the country such as the "Energy Independence Executive Order" indicate that the current administration has currently no intention to fulfil the pledge made by the previous one to lower CO2 emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels in 2025.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Environment, International Development
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Andrew Duff
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: Following the start of the Brexit negotiations on 19 June, Andrew Duff reviews the state of play, namely the discussions on EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, the financial commitments and the future role of the ECJ. He welcomes the Commission’s proposal to create a Joint Committee to manage the actual exiting process. Duff regrets the irresolution on the British side, which hampers the possibility to define the future relationship with the European Union and consequently the transitional arrangements that UK business so badly needs. Given the UK’s state of confusion after the electoral results of 2016 and 2017, he suggests that the EU must make an offer to London on the basis of a wider reflection on the future not just of the smaller European Union but of the wider Europe.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Andrew Duff
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: In this paper, Andrew Duff reviews the intended and unintended consequences of the results of last week’s general election. He argues that: 1. Since both Labour and Conservatives campaigned to complete Brexit, there will be no more talk of the possible revocation of Article 50. Brexit does indeed mean Brexit. 2. Now Brexit is free from the shadow of immediate electioneering. And the new composition of the House of Commons has improved the chances that if there is an Article 50 treaty it will be approved. 3. The unintended consequence of the snap election has been to make a softer Brexit more likely. Mercifully, we should not hear again that “no deal is better than a bad deal” as a bust up of the Article 50 talks would lead to the collapse of the May government and the holding of another general election, much-feared by the Conservative party.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Giovanni Grevi
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: After four months in office, the Trump administration has not triggered a revolution in US foreign policy but is shaking up the status quo. The path-breaking decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate change reflects the president's abrasive 'America first' rhetoric. On a range of other issues, long-established patterns and commitments have been challenged so far more in words than in deeds. However, the mix of nationalism and pragmatism, ideology and realism, improvisation and policy reversals that Trump's foreign policy approach displays has begun to significantly affect the profile and perceptions of the US in the world. Under Trump, the US is shifting away from its traditional role as ultimate guarantor of the international liberal order at increasing speed.
  • Topic: Political stability, Post Truth Politics
  • Political Geography: America