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1. Jordan Not Out of the Woods Yet

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Obama's reaffirmed pledges of assistance to Jordan are helpful, but they may not be enough to safeguard the country if the situation in Syria continues to fester. On February 14, President Obama met with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Rancho Mirage, California. In the year since their previous summit, tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed and over 400,000 have registered as refugees in Jordan, bringing the total number of exiles from across the northern border to nearly 1 million. Despite the deterioration next door and the 16 percent increase in the kingdom's population, Jordan is paradoxically more stable today than when the two leaders met in March 2013. Yet the refugees still constitute a threat that will likely increase, especially given President Obama's assessment that "we don't expect to solve [the Syria crisis] anytime in the short term."
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Syria

2. PolicyWatch #1400: Amman Warms to Hamas

Author:
David Schenker and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, Jordan's minister of information publicly confirmed that senior Jordanian officials have been meeting with Hamas in an effort to "solve pending security issues." These talks represent a significant shift for Amman, since relations between Jordan and the Palestinian group had been frozen for two years, following the arrest of three Hamas members in the kingdom on terrorism and weapons charges. Although the decision to renew contacts with Hamas suggests that Amman remains concerned with Hamas-related activities in the kingdom, the timing also highlights domestic and regional pressures on King Abdullah and the Jordanian government.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Jordan

3. PolicyWatch #1432: Syria's Reactor: Can the IAEA Act Effectively?

Author:
David Schenker and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
High on the agenda of the November 27-28 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors (BOG) will be the November 19 report from Director General Mohammed ElBaradei about Syria. How the IAEA responds to the Syrian challenge may determine whether future urgent proliferation concerns are taken to the IAEA and UN Security Council or resolved through military force, such as Israel's airstrike last year on Syria's Dayr al-Zor site.
Topic:
Security, International Organization, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Syria

4. Ceasefire Options for Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Wednesday, an international conference will open in Italy to discuss the state of Lebanon and explore potential formulas for an Israeli-Hizballah ceasefire. Current conditions make an immediate ceasefire unlikely, but should changing events make a ceasefire possible, one of the first priorities for the Bush administration and the international community will be to find a mechanism to reinvigorate and implement the remaining stipulations of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. In particular, that means disarming Hizballah. The group will no doubt oppose international and domestic efforts to disarm it, but the Lebanese government and the international community can take steps in the context of a ceasefire to consolidate Lebanese resentment toward Hizballah and press ahead with Resolution 1559.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Israel and Lebanon

5. Israel and Hizballah at War: A Status Report

Author:
David Schenker, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Institute, served until 2005 as Levant country director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

6. Syria, Hamas, and the Gaza Crisis

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Earlier today, Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashal held a press conference in Damascus broadcast live on al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, and Syrian state television. During the broadcast, Mashal described kidnapped Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit as a “prisoner of war,” said that prisoner exchange was the only solution to the crisis, and appeared to recommend direct negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The press conference was significant, not only for its content, but because it was held in a Damascus hotel: typically in the past, when Syria-based terrorist organizations took responsibility for operations, they did so from Beirut. The high profile Mashal statement from Damascus suggests that the Asad regime has changed its rules of engagement from tacit to explicit support for Hamas. The shift highlights Syria's emboldened foreign policy a year and a half after the assassination in Beirut of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria

7. UNSC 1373 and the War Against Terror: An Important if Untested Tool

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 30, Iranian parliamentarian Elaheh Kula'i appeared before the Majlis and warned that a reluctance to implement UN resolutions regarding terrorism could result in "consequences" for the Islamic republic. Kula'i was specifically referring to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1373, which outlines the financial and legal measures that UN member-states must take against terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. That an Iranian official would express such anxiety over a UN resolution highlights its potential as a tool for assembling "all necessary means," force if need be, to pressure terror-supporting states.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

8. Jordan's New Election Law: New Tactics, Old Strategy?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Jordan's King Abdullah took two major decisions that will have significant implications for the kingdom's complicated and often troubled relations with its Palestinian and Islamist communities. Last Sunday, Abdullah approved a new election law; two days later, he issued a decree indefinitely postponing parliamentary elections. Taken together, these moves appear designed to bolster the stability of the kingdom, though it is still too early to assess whether the regime wins or loses from these parliamentary gambits.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Law
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Jordan

9. The Draft Communique Of The Arab Summit: A Textual Analysis

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Yesterday, the text of a draft communiqué for the impending Arab summit, principally drafted by host Egypt, was leaked to the Beirut press. In an interview about this document, Egyptian foreign minister Amre Moussa indicated that this draft was accurate but preliminary. If this version emerges from the summit relatively unchanged, it would represent a stunning regression in Arab-Israeli relations and a major setback for the prospects of Middle East diplomacy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

10. Inside The Fatah Tanzim: A Primer

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As violence continues to flare in parts of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, attention is increasingly focused on the Palestinian group responsible for much of the rioting and confrontation—the Fatah Tanzim. Just yesterday, the leader of the Tanzim, Marwan Barghouthi, ridiculed the ceasefire reached in Paris as useless. That the agreement was so short-lived highlights the growing importance of this quasi-civilian strike force.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries