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2. The Asset Quality Review and Capital Needs: Why re-capitalise banks with public money?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- There are three aggregate numbers that describe the problem the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is inheriting: the 130 banks under its direct supervision hold assets worth 250% of the euro area's GDP, their capital is equivalent to only 4% of their assets' value and they have made zero profits, in the aggregate, over the last four years.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and Germany: When is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Matthias Busse
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was designed to prevent the emergence of imbalances like the large and persistent current account deficits that occurred in Spain and Ireland. But within this mechanism, a current account surplus is also viewed as a source of concern. Indeed, last year's Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), issued by the European Commission signalled an excessive current account surplus for the Netherlands and Luxembourg, while Germany just barely scraped by with a 5.9% surplus, marginally evading the 6% threshold (over a 3-year average). With the most recent report, however, Germany's status has changed. Along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg, it too has now been singled out as a euro-area country with a surplus above the upper threshold.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
4. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The June 2012 European Council decided that the legal basis for the 'Single Supervisory Mechanism' should be Article 127(6) of the Treaty, and that the SSM should 'involve' the ECB. This implies only that supervision should be concentrated within the ECB. In the policy discussion it is, however, generally taken for granted that there should be 'Chinese walls' between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal is explicit on this account.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
5. Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the Northern countries of the euro area towards the Southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressures. This paper argues that, at this point, the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6. The Spanish Hangover
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Spain faces high unemployment and slow growth. This paper focuses on an important source of those problems, namely its housing market. While some adjustment has occurred since Spain's housing bubble burst in 2008, the authors find that house prices and construction need to decrease more to slow Spain's unsustainable accumulation of foreign debt.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
7. 'Grexit': Who would pay for it?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros, Cinzia Alcidi, and Alessandro Giovannini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- What would be the cost if Greece were to exit from the eurozone? This much-debated question cannot be answered with a single number. The consequences of Greece's exit would depend decisively on the exact circumstances of events in the country itself as well as the general state of financial markets in the eurozone.
- Topic:
- Debt, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
8. Europe's Recurrent Employment Problems
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- As the euro crisis continues and unemployment climbs to new heights, the clamour calling for Europe to 'do something' is getting louder. But the real question is: can Europe, or rather the EU, do 'something' that would actually have a real impact on unemployment? In other words, does a European plan or employment strategy make sense?
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9. A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany's Curse of Excess Savings
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- For most of the time since the early 1950s, national savings in Germany have tended to exceed national investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Most of these excess savings have been intermediated by the domestic banking system, which has had difficulties investing these German surpluses abroad given that it is prohibited by law from taking any exchange rate risk. This tended to keep the surplus within limits most of the time (less than 1- 2% of GDP). With the advent of the euro, however, German surpluses could become much larger and seem now to have become structurally engrained at 6% of GDP, or over one-quarter of savings. Since the start of the euro crisis, German private savers have repatriated their investments – effectively unloading their exposure onto the public sector as German banks have deposited hundreds of billions of euro at the Bundesbank. These funds are being lent by the ECB to banks in the euro area periphery (at 75 bps) – ensuring effectively a negative real return.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
10. Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, and Italy
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