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  • Author: A.A. Kokoshin
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The author proceeds from the definition, that nuclear conflict is a situation involving one or more possessors of nuclear weapons, and in the course of which escalation reaches a level at which the practical possibility of using nuclear weapons begins to be considered. The higher phase of nuclear conflict means the use of nuclear weapons at various scales—from single nuclear explosions to the mass use of nuclear weapons.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Author: Robert I. Rotberg
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Haiti is small, poor, and badly governed. That has been the lot of Haitians from 1804 to 1990, despite an emperor, a clutch of dictators, the despotic rule of the Duvalier family, an American occupation, and a few well-meaning democratic rulers. For nearly two centuries, Haitians have been waiting for leaders who favor the national over narrow personal interest, who seek a sustained improvement in the national condition, and who put the needs and claims of ordinary Haitians first.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Caribbean
  • Author: Andrea Gabbitas
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Since September 11, the relationship between the United States and Russia has evolved significantly. At the Crawford summit in November 2001, President George W. Bush and President Vladimir V. Putin officially declared a “new relationship” between the United States and Russia. A significant portion of this new relationship has centered on nonproliferation matters, which have been declared a priority by both presidents. In fighting terrorist threats, Bush and Putin have “agreed to enhance bilateral and multilateral action to stem the export and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological materials, related technologies, and delivery systems as a critical component of the battle to defeat international terrorism.”
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: James B. Steinberg, Gilman Louie
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The challenge of preventing and responding to the new security threats is very different from the one we, as a nation, faced in the Cold War. Today, the private sector is on the frontline of the homeland security effort: Its members are holders of information that may prove crucial to thwarting terrorist attacks; stewards of critical infrastructure that must be protected and dangerous materials that could be used to do harm; and important actors in responding to attacks. As we said in our first Task Force report, private sector information is essential to counter-terrorism, and government agencies should have timely, needed access to that information, pursuant to guidelines that give confidence that the information will be used in a responsible way.
  • Topic: Government, National Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William H. Frey
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Hundreds of thousands of people move to the U.S. each year seeking a better life. Millions of Americans move to new locations within the U.S. each year for the same reason. The respective destinations of these two groups—immigrants and domestic migrants—shape the physical landscape, public service needs, business patterns, and political culture of our nation's metropolitan areas. For those reasons, international and domestic migration trends in the late 1990s, and how they shaped metropolitan growth dynamics, represent some of the most eagerly anticipated findings from U.S. Census 2000.
  • Topic: Demographics, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: W. Courtland Robinson
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: While it may have as many meanings as people who invoke its name, development generally has positive, though perhaps ambiguous, connotations. Uneven development is a bad thing and sustainable development is a good thing but, for the most part, under- developed countries and communities seek to become more developed, whether that is through improving health and livelihoods, expanding educational opportunities, or building infrastructure. But, as the citations above suggest, development does not benefit everyone equally and for some—indeed, for millions of people around the world—development has cost them their homes, their livelihoods, their health, and even their very lives. The suffering of those displaced by development projects can be as severe, and the numbers as large, as those displaced either internally or internationally by conflict and violence. What follows is an examination of the often-overlooked phenomenon of development-induced displacement, its causes, consequences and challenges for the international community.
  • Topic: Development, Human Welfare, Migration
  • Political Geography: Africa, Asia
  • Author: Catharin Dalpino, Juo-yu Lin
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Over a span of several years, China's relations with the nations of Southeast Asia have shifted in quiet increments. The accumulated effect, however, has been profound. A concerted diplomatic effort to woo countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which now includes all countries in the region excepting East Timor, has reaped multiple benefits for Beijing. It is beginning to alter the political balance in the region as alignments with extra-regional powers are shifting, however subtly. In some aspects, the change is more dramatic. Economic relations have expanded rapidly; for example, trade between China and Southeast Asia is seventeen times larger today than it was twenty-five years ago.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Beijing, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Richard Bush
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: On the face of it, relations between China and Taiwan have improved significantly since the saber-rattling of 1999 and 2000. Economic relations have never been better. Two-way trade is around $40 billion annually, and the Mainland has become Taiwan's largest export market, displacing the United States. Taiwan companies continue to invest in the PRC at record rates, in order to keep their products competitive through cheaper Chinese labor. The product mix of Taiwan factories on the mainland is shifting from items like shoes and toys to high-end goods like semi-conductors and notebook computers. As machinery moves, so do people, and the number of Taiwan people living most of the time in the PRC is hundreds of thousands. With this growing economic interaction come shared interests and better mutual understanding. Neither side would benefit from conflict, and both know it. The chance of growing tensions seems low.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Wilson Wong
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: In the more than five years since Hong Kong returned to Chinese sovereignty, it has suffered economical, social, and political decline. The root cause of this decline, and the key variable for the next five years, is institutional weakness. Specifically, the Hong Kong government must address the dual problems of poor performance and low capacity in order to reverse the decline and get Hong Kong back on track for economic growth and institutional development.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Edward Lincoln
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: One of the discouraging problems in Northeast Asia over the past decade has been the lengthy malaise in the Japanese economy and the inability of government, business, and the public to forge effective solutions. In the decade since 1992, the average annual real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth rate has been only one percent—positive but very low and punctuated by four recessions in which gross domestic product (GDP) fell for at least two consecutive quarters. The financial sector is weighed down under an enormous amount of non-performing loans that has only grown larger over time. Meanwhile, Japan has become the first industrial country since the 1930s to experience deflation—a decline in the overall price level.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia, Northeast Asia