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38801. Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Palestinian refugee question, like the refugees themselves, has been politically marginalised and demoted on the diplomatic agenda. Yet, whenever the diplomatic process comes out of its current hiatus, the Palestinian leadership will be able to negotiate and sell a deal only if it wins the support or at least acquiescence of refugees – because if it does not, it will not bring along the rest of the Palestinian population. Refugees currently feel alienated from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they regard with suspicion; doubt the intentions of Palestinian negotiators, whom they do not believe represent their interests; and, as one of the more impoverished Palestinian groups, resent the class structure that the PA and its economic policies have produced. As a result of their isolation, refugees in the West Bank and Gaza are making demands for services and representation that are reinforcing emerging divisions within Palestinian society and politics. There arguably are ways to address refugee needs, both diplomatic and practical, that are not mutually exclusive with core Israeli interests. This report examines what could be done on the Palestinian side to mitigate the risk that the Palestinian refugee question derails a future negotiation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Refugee Issues, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

38802. Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in Rakhine State contains a toxic mixture of historical centre-periphery tensions, serious intercommunal and inter-religious conflict with minority Muslim communities, and extreme poverty and under-development. This led to major violence in 2012 and further sporadic outbreaks since then. The political temperature is high, and likely to increase as Myanmar moves closer to national elections at the end of 2015. It represents a significant threat to the overall success of the transition, and has severely damaged the reputation of the government when it most needs international support and investment. Any policy approach must start from the recognition that there will be no easy fixes or quick solutions. The problems faced by Rakhine State are rooted in decades of armed violence, authoritarian rule and state-society conflict. This crisis has affected the whole of the state and all communities within it. It requires a sustained and multi-pronged response, as well as critical humanitarian and protection interventions in the interim.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

38803. Mali : dernière chance à Alger

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alors que le Nord du Mali connait un inquiétant regain de violence, les négociations de paix à Alger constituent une chance unique de sortie de crise. Mais après deux mois de discussions, la paix semble encore loin. Le gouvernement malien et les groupes armés engagés dans les négociations peinent à trouver un terrain d'entente. Des groupes influents et radicaux qui manquent à la table des négociations sont tentés de faire dérailler le processus par la violence. La résolution du conflit passe par l'articulation complexe d'intérêts divergents qui touchent à la sécurité du Sahara, à la nature de l'Etat malien et aux équilibres locaux entre des communautés divisées. Face aux affrontements armés, la tentation est grande d'aller vite et de signer un accord à minima garantissant la sécurité à court terme. La précipitation est mauvaise conseillère. Il faut se donner les moyens et le temps de construire les fondements d'une paix durable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

38804. The Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model

Author:
Omer Ali Saifudeen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The starting premise of this study is that internet-based communications possess unique characteristics that warrant the need to have a discrete pathway model to explain online radicalisation. This online radicalisation pathway model would especially apply to the growing communities of young netizens whose socio-psychological makeup is shaping a ―new normal‖ in the way we exchange information and interact. The proposed Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model (CEOP) describes how online cognitive radicalisation can move towards real-world violent extremism. The model also elucidates the multitude of competing forces in cyberspace that promote or impede such radicalisation and what this means for online counter-radicalisation strategies. The CEOP model is based on inferences made from content and discourse analysis of extremist narratives on the internet and current studies about internet-based communications. The research took into account distinctive factors that made internet-based messaging more persuasive and this includes the effects of crowdsourcing. Finally, the CEOP model suggests how the same persuasive communication strategies used on the internet by extremists can be conversely used to counter online radicalisation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Science and Technology, Communications, Sociology, and Youth Culture

38805. La Tunisie des frontières (II) : terrorisme et polarisation régionale

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis le soulèvement populaire de décembre-janvier 2010-2011, la Tunisie surmonte avec succès ses crises politiques, mais le pays semble moins disposé à absorber le choc d'attaques jihadistes plus importantes. Malgré le dialogue national qui a fortement réduit les tensions et a fait débuter l'année 2014 sur une touche optimiste, l'inquiétude grandit de nouveau. Cette appréhension peut s'expliquer par la montée des violences à la frontière algérienne, le chaos libyen et l'avancée de l'islamisme radical au Moyen-Orient, mais également par le discours antiterroriste ambiant. Caisse de résonnance des conflits qui agitent la région, le pays a besoin d'aborder la question terroriste de manière sereine et dépolitisée, malgré les enjeuxinternationaux. La lutte contre le terrorisme et la lutte contre le crime organisé sont indissociables. Le gouvernement gagnerait ainsi à accompagner ses mesures sécuritaires par des mesures économiques et sociales destinées à ramener les populations frontalières dans le giron de l'Etat.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia

38806. Marijuana Policy in Colorado

Author:
Jeffrey Miron
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In November 2012, voters in the states of Colorado and Washington approved ballot initiatives that legalized marijuana for recreational purposes. Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia are scheduled to consider similar measures in the fall of 2014, and other states may follow suit in the fall of 2016.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Social Movement, and Law
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Colombia

38807. Review of Greenlight Pinellas

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Under its “Greenlight Pinellas” proposal, the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA), which serves Pinellas County, FL, wants to switch its major funding source from a property tax to a sales tax at a rate that will more than double its local tax revenues, and use the added money to build a 24-mile light-rail line and expand bus service. This proposal is extremely and unnecessarily expensive given that buses can provide a superior service to light rail, carrying more passengers more comfortably to more destinations at a far lower cost.
Topic:
Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States

38808. The Role of Mortgage Finance in Financial (In)Stability

Author:
Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Empirical research on the causes of financial crises has grown in recent decades. Early work, such as that by Kaminsky and Reinhart, helped establish the link between asset prices and banking crises. While this initial research focused on equity prices, subsequent research expanded the analysis to include residential property prices. This subsequent research is briefly reviewed here. After establishing the link between residential property prices and banking crises, I discuss the role of various credit policies, both for their impact on property prices and for the stability of the financial system in the face of declining property prices. The role of specific loan characteristics, such as loan-to-value (LTV), will be discussed first, followed by the role of institutional leverage. Policy recommendations conclude.
Topic:
Debt, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance

38809. Full Text Issue

Author:
Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, leader of ISIS, which is at centre stage of terrorist movements today, claims to be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. This is however deeply contested as the information on him is mostly from various online sources, the genealogy is unverifiable, and there are inconsistencies in publically shared information. A review of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi's background and atrocities committed by the group under his leadership also show the contrast between ISIS ideology and the real teachings of Islam.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

38810. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

38811. A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 22 May, for the twelfth time in Thailand's history, the army seized power after months of political turbulence. This is not simply more of the same. The past decade has seen an intensifying cycle of election, protest and government downfall, whether at the hands of the courts or military, revealing deepening societal cleavages and elite rivalries, highlighting competing notions of legitimate authority. A looming royal succession, prohibited by law from being openly discussed, adds to the urgency. A failure to fix this dysfunction risks greater turmoil. The military's apparent prescription – gelding elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions – is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion, given a recent history of a newly empowered electorate. For the army, buyer's remorse is not an option, nor is open-ended autocracy; rather its legacy, and Thailand's stability, depend on its success in forging a path – thus far elusive – both respectful of majoritarian politics and in which all Thais can see their concerns acknowledged.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Asia and Thailand

38812. Pakistan's Resurgent Sectarian War

Author:
Arif Rafiq
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sectarian violence between Sunni Deobandi and Shia Muslims in Pakistan has escalated in recent years. Most of this violence is perpetrated by local networks, but the sectarian phenomenon also has important ties to regional security dynamics and transnational terrorist networks. Despite sporadic state crackdowns, Pakistan's leading Sunni Deobandi sectarian militant groups have been able to maintain a persistent presence thanks in part to reluctance among mainstream Pakistani military and political leaders to directly confront groups that are sometimes seen as serving utilitarian political interests. Despite this negligence, Sunni Deobandi militants have also established linkages with terrorist groups that target the Pakistani state, such as al-Qaeda and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Rising conflict in the greater Middle East over the past five years has strengthened the sectarian political narrative in Pakistan and emboldened sectarian militant networks on both sides of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Pakistan

38813. How to Spur Afghan Reforms: The Limits and Benefits of Incentives

Author:
Trent Ruder
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Donors have increasingly sought to condition assistance funds for Afghanistan, particularly as a result of inadequate reforms during the Karzai administration. Since its negotiation in 2012, the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework has been the basis of most donor incentive decisions on Afghanistan. Donors need to consider who benefits from incentives, how resources and requests align, Afghanistan's capacity to implement reform, and the consequences of success or failure. Donors should both temper their expectations and minimize the linkage between highly politicized issues and incentive programs. Incentive programming is not a magic bullet, but it can help shape dialogue with the new Afghan administration.
Topic:
Corruption, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Tokyo

38814. Exploitation of Mineral Resources in Afghanistan Without Government Revenues or Development Benefits

Author:
William A. Byrd and Javed Noorani
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Case studies of five ongoing mining operations show that Afghan mining companies are wantonly exploiting easily extractable mineral resources with little or no taxes and royalties going to the government. Revenue losses from just two sources —royalties and land rent —at the five mines are more than US$50 million per year. Total revenue losses from all sources for the hundreds of mines contracted to different companies easily could be hundreds of millions of dollars annually. The tendering processes, awards, and contents of contracts issued, contract implementation, and actual operations at the mines all showed clear signs of political interference, favoring bidders that often had no prior mining experience. Companies usually began extracting resources soon after mining contracts were awarded, without paying any taxes and royalties —even though the contract called for an initial exploration period. Companies did not provide the legally and contractually required documents, such as exploration reports and environmental and social impact assessments. Effective inspections of mines were not conducted, and companies were not held accountable for payments due. Sometimes mining activities precipitated local conflicts, resulting in violence and deaths; weaker local communities called on Taliban elements for support in one such dispute. Serious reforms are needed to ensure that mining activities are developmentally beneficial and that revenues generated are paid to the government.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

38815. The Future of Big Business in the New Egypt

Author:
Amr Adly
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egypt's big business community provided strong, early support for the military- backed government that came to power in June 2014. But despite that endorsement, the regime of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has made changes that are putting pressure on the private sector. Still, there are signs that some of those shifts are only temporary and that they have been taken out of necessity as the new political leadership attempts to repair a struggling economy. While elements of state-business relations may be reconfigured, big business remains essential to Egypt's long-term recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Egypt

38816. Publishing Government Contracts: Addressing Concerns and Easing Implementation (Brief)

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Government contracts regarding the use of public property and finances should be published by default. Many jurisdictions already require that contracts be made public in response to requests for the information; some now publish contracts proactively. Doing so helps new entrants compete in the market for public contracts, helps governments model their projects on other successful examples, and allows citizens greater insight into how their taxes are being spent. This brief, summarizing the conclusions of the Working Group on Government Contract Publication, provides a practical outline for reaping the benefits of open contracts while addressing legitimate concerns about costs, collusion, privacy, commercial secrecy, and national security.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

38817. The Brazil-Norway Agreement with Performance-Based Payments for Forest Conservation: Successes, Challenges, and Lessons

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Frances Seymour, and William Savedoff
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In March 2004, the Brazilian government initiated a range of policies and enforcement actions (under the Action Plan for Preservation and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon) that brought sharp reductions in the rate of deforestation. In 2008, Brazil signed an agreement with Norway to receive payments during a 5-year period for bringing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation below a 10-year average (1996–2005). Norway pledged up to US$1 billion for this agreement, which stipulated that these funds would be donated to the Amazon Fund (Fundo Amazônia), managed by the Brazilian National Development Bank and invested in actions to prevent deforestation and to promote the conservation and sustainable use of the Amazon biome.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Norway and Brazil

38818. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:
Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Latin American performance during the global fi nancial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global fi nancial crises and fi nd that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also fi nd that higher private credit, more fi nancial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confi rms that eff ective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

38819. Why Bail-In Securities Are Fool's Gold

Author:
Avinash D. Persaud
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Bailouts and bail-ins of failing financial institutions have been hotly disputed in the global financial crisis of the last five years. At the height of the crisis, several failing banks were bailed out with taxpayer money so they could service their debts, but as public outrage mounts, policymakers are increasingly looking at bailing in these institutions before using taxpayer funds. Bail-ins, also called haircuts, require the troubled institution's creditors to write off some of the debt or agree to a restructuring of the debt, which reduces their holdings. The public has demanded the imposition of these costs on creditors and bond - holders, arguing that if bad lending as well as bad borrowing went unpunished it would be encouraged. Additionally, the yawning fiscal deficits that have followed bailouts have led to unpopular fiscal retrenchment.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

38820. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine