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3501. After Doha: II. Is globalisation history?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
For some observers, the announcement in late July of the indefinite suspension of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations signalled the beginning of the end for globalisation. The fear was that history would repeat itself; just as an earlier era of globalisation came to a bad end, so too could the current episode.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

3502. After Doha: I. The search for Plan B

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On 24 July, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations was suspended indefinitely, due to irreconcilable differences over the liberalisation of agricultural trade. While the suspension of negotiations may or may not turn out to mark the death of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the future of the international trading system. With even a 'good' outcome for the faltering trade round likely to deliver little in terms of new market access when set against the scale of negotiating resources devoted to Doha, the appetite of the world's trade ministers for any repeat performance will be limited. As a result, the era of giant, set piece trade rounds like Doha and its predecessor the Uruguay Round may well be over.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

3503. The next UN Secretary-General

Author:
Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Issues Brief assesses the relationship between the United Nations and Asia – both the UN's activities in Asia and the behaviour of Asian states at the UN. Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues, reviews the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN, previews the September World Summit on UN reform, and examines the prospects for an Asian Secretary-General, which has the potential to thicken Asia's interactions with the UN.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

3504. The testament of Solomons: RAMSI and international state-building

Author:
Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The phenomenon of state failure and its remedies constitute a growth area of international politics, partly because of the recognition that state failure generates security threats and partly because it is so very difficult. This Lowy Institute Analysis identifies the critical elements of one small but significant case, about which there is growing international interest: the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). The background to the mission was the long-standing tension between the peoples of the two main islands, Guadalcanal and Malaita, which developed in the period 1998-2002 into militant violence which then mutated into widespread criminality and thuggery. Acting on a request from Honiara, the Australian Government and its regional partners elected to lead a new kind of statebuilding intervention.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

3505. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

3506. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

3507. The United States Needs German Economic Leadership

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On January 13, Germany's new chancellor, Angela Merkel, will have her first official visit with US President George W. Bush. Washington, or at least the part of Washington that still pays attention to transatlantic issues, not just the Bush administration, will be glad to see her given that she is not her US-bashing predecessor Gerhard Schroeder. Though this change in atmosphere is welcome, no one should make too much of it. It is unlikely to make much difference on security issues, where Iran's own actions are forcing the United States and Germany to come together, where German public opinion will keep the governments apart on Iraq, and where neither country is prepared to make major changes to defense budgets and approaches. The Masri case will certainly limit Merkel's interest in appearing too chummy with Bush on security matters.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, and Germany

3508. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3509. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3510. Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture

Author:
David C. Gompert, Jan M. Lodal, Leslie S. Lebl, Walter B. Slocombe, and Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect the peace and security of Europe. After 2001, global terrorism became the priority threat, especially when linked with the prospect of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia