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- Author: Abdullah Al-Arian
- Publication Date: 05-2021
- Content Type: Special Report
- Institution: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
- Abstract: Prof. Abdullah Al-Arian discusses how Islamist movements have historically viewed diplomacy as important to their activist missions.
- Topic: International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, Politics, History, Islamism
- Political Geography: Middle East, North America, Egypt, United States of America
- Author: Steve H. Hanke
- Publication Date: 06-2020
- Content Type: Journal Article
- Journal: The Cato Journal
- Institution: The Cato Institute
- Abstract: Monetary instability poses a threat to free societies. Indeed, currency instability, banking crises, soaring inflation, sovereign debt defaults, and economic booms and busts all have a common source: monetary instability. Furthermore, all these ills induced by monetary instability bring with them calls for policy changes, many of which threaten free societies. One who understood this simple fact was Karl Schiller, who was the German Finance Minister from 1966 until 1972. Schiller’s mantra was clear and uncompromising: “Stability is not everything, but without stability, everything is nothing” (Marsh 1992: 30). Well, Schiller’s mantra is my mantra. I offer three regime changes that would enhance the stability in what Jacques de Larosière (2014) has asserted is an international monetary “anti-system.” First, the U.S. dollar and the euro should be formally, loosely linked together. Second, most central banks in developing countries should be mothballed and replaced by currency boards. Third, private currency boards should be permitted to enter the international monetary sphere.
- Topic: Debt, Foreign Exchange, Monetary Policy, Developing World, Inflation, Currency
- Political Geography: Europe, United States of America, European Union
- Author: Clifford F. Thies, Christopher F. Baum
- Publication Date: 01-2020
- Content Type: Journal Article
- Journal: The Cato Journal
- Institution: The Cato Institute
- Abstract: With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was thought that major wars had become obsolete (Mueller 1989) and perhaps regional conflicts might be brought under control (Cederman, Gleditsch, and Wucherpfennig 2017). But, while the level of violence declined, the number of wars in the world appears to have reached a new steady state. A world that was once organized by East-West rivalry is now characterized by ethno-religious conflicts, as well as by spontaneously arising transnational terrorist organizations and criminal gangs. For various reasons, economists have become interested in investigating the causes and effects of war and other armed conflict (e.g., Coyne and Mathers 2011). This article uses a consistent measurement of these forms of violence across space and time to conduct a rigorous quantitative analysis of the effect of war on economic growth.
- Topic: Cold War, War, History, Economic growth, Conflict
- Political Geography: Global Focus
- Author: Michael D Bordo, Mickey D. Levy
- Publication Date: 01-2020
- Content Type: Journal Article
- Journal: The Cato Journal
- Institution: The Cato Institute
- Abstract: The ratcheting up of tariffs and the Fed’s discretionary conduct of monetary policy are a toxic mix for economic performance. Escalating tariffs and President Trump’s erratic and unpredictable trade policy and threats are harming global economic performance, distorting monetary policy, and undermining the Fed’s credibility and independence. President Trump’s objectives to force China to open access to its markets for international trade, reduce capital controls, modify unfair treatment of intellectual property, and address cybersecurity issues and other U.S. national security issues are laudable goals with sizable benefits. However, the costs of escalating tariffs are mounting, and the tactic of relying exclusively on barriers to trade and protectionism is misguided and potentially dangerous. The economic costs to the United States so far have been relatively modest, dampening exports, industrial production, and business investment. However, the tariffs and policy uncertainties have had a significantly larger impact on China, accentuating its structural economic slowdown, and are disrupting and distorting global supply chains. This is harming other nations that have significant exposure to international trade and investment overseas, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Germany. As a result, global trade volumes and industrial production are falling. Weaker global growth is reflected in a combination of a reduction in aggregate demand and constraints on aggregate supply.
- Topic: International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Economic growth, Tariffs, Industry
- Political Geography: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, Germany, North America, United States of America
- Author: Simon Lester, Huan Zhu
- Publication Date: 01-2020
- Content Type: Journal Article
- Journal: The Cato Journal
- Institution: The Cato Institute
- Abstract: Donald Trump was a trade “hawk” long before he became president. In the late 1980s, he went on the Oprah Winfrey show and complained about Japan “beating the hell out of this country” on trade (Real Clear Politics 2019). As president, he has continued with the same rhetoric, using it against a wide range of U.S. trading partners, and he has followed it up with action (often in the form of tariffs). While many countries have found themselves threatened by Trump’s aggressive trade policy, his main focus has been China. As a result, the United States and China have been engaged in an escalating tariff, trade, and national security conflict since July 2018, when the first set of U.S. tariffs on China went into effect and China retaliated with tariffs of its own. In this article, we explore the U.S.-China economic conflict, from its origins to the trade war as it stands today. We then offer our thoughts on where this conflict is heading and when it might end.
- Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Donald Trump
- Political Geography: China, Asia, North America, United States of America
- Author: Dalia Ghanem
- Publication Date: 05-2020
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract: Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority. In Algeria, state formation remains an evolving process, as evidenced by the situation in the country’s northeastern border regions. With Algerian officials in these areas permitting smuggling of petrol and certain other commodities over the border with Tunisia and smugglers weeding out security threats even as they go about their illicit trade, the two ostensibly adversarial parties complement each other. This unusual relationship furthers the intrusion of the state into citizens’ livelihoods even as it manipulates state authority.
- Topic: Law Enforcement, Economy, Borders, Trade, Smuggling
- Political Geography: Algeria, North Africa, Tunisia
- Author: Cornelius Adebahr
- Publication Date: 05-2020
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract: The rift between Europe and the United States over Iran is deepening. To regain leverage, the Europeans should engage all eight Gulf states in talks about regional security and nonproliferation. The rift between Europe and the United States over Iran is deepening. Two years of U.S. maximum pressure on Tehran have not yielded the results Washington had hoped for, while the Europeans have failed to put up enough resistance for their transatlantic partner to change course. Worse, the U.S. policy threatens to destabilize the broader Persian Gulf, with direct consequences for Europe. To get ahead of the curve and regain leverage, the European Union (EU), its member states, and the United Kingdom have to look beyond their relations with the Islamic Republic and address wider regional security challenges. The United States’ incipient retreat as a security guarantor and Russia’s increased interest in the region make it necessary for Europe to engage beyond its borders. Despite being barely alive, the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran offers a good starting point. The Europeans should regionalize some of the agreement’s basic provisions to include the nuclear newcomers on the Arab side of the Gulf. Doing so would advance a nonproliferation agenda that is aimed not at a single country but at the region’s broader interests. Similarly, the Europeans should engage Iran, Iraq, and the six Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council in talks about regional security. Rather than suggesting an all-encompassing security framework, for which the time is not yet ripe, they should pursue a step-by-step approach aimed at codifying internationally recognized principles at the regional level.
- Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation
- Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, United States of America
- Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, Jen-Yi Hou
- Publication Date: 04-2020
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract: Taiwan needs to look not just to the energy it needs right now but also to the energy it will need ten to twenty years from now if it is to power its future. This paper focuses on two elements of the paradigmatic transformation that are especially relevant to Taiwan’s future: (1) the rise of new energy and storage technologies, and (2) the dynamics of liquefied natural gas pricing. In particular, it looks at several ways in which new investment partnerships between Taiwan and U.S. players could bolster Taiwan’s ambitious effort to build out renewable energy as a source of industrial and residential power.
- Topic: Energy Policy, Markets, Science and Technology, Investment, Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography: Middle East, Taiwan, United States of America
- Author: Abigail Bellows
- Publication Date: 01-2020
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract: The professionalization of the anticorruption field has produced a cadre of capital-based NGOs with the technical expertise to be formidable government watchdogs. But at what cost? Corruption-fueled political change is occurring at a historic rate—but is not necessarily producing the desired systemic reforms. There are many reasons for this, but one is the dramatic dissipation of public momentum after a transition. In countries like Armenia, the surge in civic participation that generated 2018’s Velvet Revolution largely evaporated after the new government assumed power. That sort of civic demobilization makes it difficult for government reformers, facing stubbornly entrenched interests, to enact a transformative agenda. The dynamics in Armenia reflect a trend across the anticorruption landscape, which is also echoed in other sectors. As the field has become more professionalized, anticorruption nongovernment organizations (NGOs) have developed the legal and technical expertise to serve as excellent counterparts/watchdogs for government. Yet this strength can also be a hurdle when it comes to building credibility with the everyday people they seek to represent. The result is a disconnect between elite and grassroots actors, which is problematic at multiple levels.
- Topic: Corruption, Political Activism, NGOs, Political Movements
- Political Geography: Caucasus, Armenia
- Author: Paul Stronski, Richard Sokolsky
- Publication Date: 01-2020
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract: Over the past two decades, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the Kremlin has intensified its engagement with international institutions. This paper evaluates the drivers of this involvement, Russian views of three of these organizations, and Moscow’s success in achieving its objectives.
- Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Multilateralism, Institutions
- Political Geography: Russia, Global Focus