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102. Polling London: Londoners' Priorities ahead of the Local Elections
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- On Thursday 5 May, Londoners will go to the polls to elect nearly 2000 councillors and 5 new mayors across 32 boroughs, for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. In association with YouGov, the Mile End Institute has polled Londoners to find out how they intend to vote on 5 May, how living in the Capital during the Covid-19 pandemic has changed their perception of the City and how much trust they have in the Metropolitan Police. At this Breakfast Webinar, held on Thursday 24 March, Farah Hussain (Polling London Project Manager) and Dr Patrick Diamond (Director of the MEI) present our findings, before Lewis Baston, Jenna Goldberg, and Sadiya Akram give their thoughts on the significance of these results and what they tell us about politics and policy in London.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Local, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and London
103. Innovations in Donor Bureaucracies and the Implications for Peacebuilding Financing
- Author:
- Ed Laws
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Donors face increasing pressure to do more with less, even in the most fragile contexts. This policy brief analyzes how organizational factors within governments create obstacles for good peacebuilding financing—and proposes options for overcoming them.
- Topic:
- Reform, Finance, Bureaucracy, Donors, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Global Focus
104. Shared fortunes: Why Britain, the European Union, and Africa need one another
- Author:
- Nicholas Westcott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Britain and Africa are deeply connected through their history and people as much as through trade, investment, aid, and culture. They can both benefit greatly from this relationship – especially in areas where their interests converge, including economic development, security, education, and climate. But political forces on both sides could push them apart – even as, increasingly, Britain needs Africa more than Africa needs Britain. The British government and the EU need to understand the relationship in its geostrategic context – the influence of China, Russia, Gulf states, and others affects African countries’ views on their place in the world. A closer and more responsive relationship between Britain, Africa, and the EU would have significant benefits for all sides – partly because each is weaker individually than they are together, and because Britain still has strengths that are most useful in cooperation with others. But this will only be possible if the British government significantly changes its approach to Europe as well as to Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe
105. European Security Management at the National Level. A Comparative Analysis of Strategies for the Development of Defence Capability in the United Kingdom and Poland
- Author:
- Joanna Iwancz and Bartłomiej H. Toszek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The article presents the positions of the UK and Polish governments on the importance of European security management as a factor influencing and shaping the defence doctrine in both states. Building on the systemic nature of European security, security management concepts, as defined in UK and Poland’s strategies for developing defence capabilities, have been examined using a system analysis. The assessment of the issue from the perspective of the UK and Polish governments is based on a decision-making analysis, while differences in the approach to European security are demonstrated through a comparative method. The authors have shown that the actual perception of European security as part of the global order is a factor determining the current involvement of the UK Government in the process of security management. However, the Polish government has shown interest in similar actions only to the extent these are convergent with national security.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Poland
106. Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy
- Author:
- Steven Blockmans
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- One of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US. Yet, post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU are currently governed by a narrow Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which does not include a designated chapter on political dialogue and that, barring a handful of exceptions, does not contain any provisions on cooperation on foreign and security matters. Fortunately, the preparatory work undertaken to reach the bilateral accord contains the answer to the question on how trust between the parties can be regained through procedural means. This policy brief highlights the embers of the Brexit bonfire that might be raked up to rekindle the flame of dialogue and cooperation between the UK and the EU in foreign affairs and security policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Ukraine
107. Brexit and beyond
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. Now the UK is finally able to embark on its new course, we believe that the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever. The contributions that follow underline the scale and scope of the agenda that confronts the United Kingdom. It is meant both as a guide to the issues that will loom large of the months and years to come and as a signal that we intend to deploy the best social science research in order to understand and address them.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
108. Anand Menon: Brexit and beyond report
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Professor Anand Menon explains the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever, now that the UK is embarking on a new course after Brexit.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
109. Not for patching? Public opinion and the commitment to ‘build back better’
- Author:
- Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- Announcing the launch of a ‘Build Back Better Council’ in January 2021, bringing together various business leaders, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that ‘as we recover from this crisis it won’t be enough to just go back to normal – our promise will be to build back better and level up opportunity for people and businesses across the UK’. 1 The following month, the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, said he believed ‘there’s a mood in the air which we don’t detect often in Britain. It was there in 1945, after the sacrifice of war, and it’s there again now. It’s the determination that our collective sacrifice must lead to a better future’. 2 The historian and peer – and the Mile End Institute’s patron – Lord Hennessy similarly argued recently that the Covid-19 experience ‘has sharpened our sense of the duty of care we have one for another, that a state has for all of its people, to a degree we have not felt collectively since World War Two and its aftermath’. 3 These appraisals of the impact of the crisis, and political commitments to change, are giving rise to debate. Are we to experience a moment similar to that of postwar transformation? If so, what is the prospect for the Britain that emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic to be significantly different, in policy terms, from what preceded it? The latter question in particular animates this project – Not for Patching?, of which this report marks our earliest findings, based on an opinion survey.
- Topic:
- Government, Public Opinion, COVID-19, and Boris Johnson
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
110. The UK Iraqi Diaspora and their Mobilization towards Iraq: Homeland Politics, Internal Dynamics, and the Fragmentation of Diasporic Transnationalism
- Author:
- Oula Kadhum
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In 2003, for the first time in decades, Iraqis in the diaspora were able to return to their former homeland and help in the rebuilding of their country. Many returned in 2003 with ambitious plans and ideas to help in the country’s development, some through political parties and others through civil society. Due to political developments in Iraq however, and the subsequent ethno-sectarian political system installed under the US-led intervention, diaspora mobilization has been affected and shaped by homeland politics and dynamics, privileging some while thwarting others. Indeed, the post-2003 political system contributed to the fragmentation of diasporic mobilization along ethnic and sectarian lines due to homeland political dynamics. This, in turn, has shaped the issues and the type of transnational and translocal mobilization carried out by different groups. Focusing predominantly on the UK context and to a lesser extent the Swedish one,[i] this study explores both top-down and bottom-up approaches to Iraqi diaspora transnational mobilization, and assesses the opportunities and constraints for coordination in diasporic transnationalism. Drawing on 15 semi-structured interviews conducted with community gatekeepers, organizational representatives, and professionals working in specific sectors, as well as numerous informal interviews, and supplemented by interviews conducted from 2013 to 2018 in both London and Stockholm, this study assess the different waves of migration and socio-economic profiles of Iraqi migrants, how pivotal moments in Iraq’s recent history have affected diasporic transnationalism, and underlines the hindrances to mobilization. The study finds that where the first waves of UK migration saw the arrival of political and religious elites, medical professionals, and artists, latter waves saw the arrival of less skilled and educated workers, as well as refugees. This provides the background both to Iraqi diasporic mobilization and links to the post-2003 political system and to the fragmentation that would ensue. While some diasporic elites went on to serve in the Iraqi government, other diaspora individuals worked through civil society, providing development, training, knowledge transfer, and social welfare. The study also finds that the instability in Iraq, homeland dynamics affecting the positionality of groups vis-à-vis the country, and lack of funds are major obstacles to broader mobilization. To this point, while there is no denying the will of the diaspora to help in the rebuilding of Iraq, distrust in the diaspora among ethnic and sectarian groups presents a particular challenge to collaboration and cooperation. Building trust and reconciliation, helping to create a platform between diaspora groups, the wider public, and Iraqi organizations, and focusing efforts on cultural, heritage, health, and developmental issues – and avoiding party politics – could help overcome these obstacles to allow the diaspora to play a greater role in supporting the Iraqi state and society.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, transnationalism, Humanitarian Crisis, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, and Middle East
111. AUKUS Security Pact: Setting the Rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Krševan Antun Dujmović
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- The announcement of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known by the acronym AUKUS, intended to enhance cooperation between the three countries in the Indo- Pacific region in defense and security, has sent shockwaves throughout the world, especially the UK for the Royal Navy of Australia. The nuclear fueled submarines will be armed by conventional weapons, the number of acquired vessels will be at least eight, and as a typically Australian request, part of the vessels will be constructed in Australia’s naval shipyards. So far, the US, the UK, Russia, China, France in China and Europe. The key element of the AUKUS pact, signed on 15th September 2021, is the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the US and and India are the only six countries that have commissioned nuclear-powered submarines. Furthermore, before signing the AUKUS pact, the UK was the only country in the world with which the US was sharing the nuclear propulsion technology, under the Mutual Defense Agreement signed back in 1958. The supply of Australia with British and American nuclear-powered attack submarines, as the most delicate part of the AUKUS pact, attracted by far the most of media attention and provoked China’s aggressive reaction. Even more, the three nations security pact, which is in principal intended to bring “enhanced trilateral security partnership for the 21st century”, has made Beijing particularly worried as China fears that this triple alliance is pointed directly against it. The three countries intend to step up their cooperation in the security and defense sector, and apart from cooperation in industrial production of new military equipment, AUKUS also envisages a broad cooperation in the fields where the three countries feel particularly threatened by China’s staggering growth, and they include cyber security, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Alliance, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, and Indo-Pacific
112. The Franco-German Rivarly in the Post-Brexit Europe
- Author:
- Cagatay Ozdemir
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- A significant foundation of European stability after World War II has been the balance of power between the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany. The UK’s accession to the European Communities (EC) in 1973 had carried that ‘balance’ into the EC’s institutional framework. In this regard, the UK’s withdrawal from EU structures may lead to an important political and financial vacuum at the center of the Union. In the wake of Brexit, indications of anxiety and concerns about power imbalances have emerged around the question of which country or counties will steer the Union. There exit fresh post-Brexit assessments that indicate that the UK’s departure from the EU may catalyze the differences between Germany and France. This paper will discuss three essential scenarios for the EU’s political and economic future direction, namely, French leadership, German leadership, and a Franco-German partnership, for the post-Brexit period.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Political stability, Brexit, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany
113. West African Elites’ Spending on UK Schools and Universities: A Closer Look
- Author:
- Matthew Page
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Political, business, and cultural elites from around the world have a strong affinity for the United Kingdom (UK) education system. Nowhere is this truer than in West Africa, where some families in Nigeria and Ghana have a long tradition of sending their children to private boarding schools and universities in the UK. These institutions are especially popular destinations for the offspring of prominent politically exposed persons (PEPs) from the region. Immigration officials, admissions staff, and UK law enforcement are not likely to scrutinize the conditions under which the children of PEPs enroll in British schools, even though the PEPs themselves may have modest legitimate earnings and opaque asset profiles that in other circumstances would raise serious financial concerns. This relative lack of review has allowed some West African PEPs to channel unexplained wealth into the UK education sector. It is not easy to estimate the overall value of this flow, yet it likely exceeds £30 million annually.1 Most of these funds emanate from Nigeria and, to a lesser extent, Ghana; compared with these two countries, only a handful of students from elsewhere in West Africa seek an education in British schools. Tackling this small but significant illicit financial flow should be a priority for UK policymakers. In doing so, they would be helping to realize the UK’s global anticorruption objectives, advance its International Education Strategy, and close a troublesome anti–money laundering (AML) loophole. Failing to do so would exacerbate existing corruption challenges both at home and abroad and increase the UK education sector’s reputational liabilities.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Education, Law Enforcement, Higher Education, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and West Africa
114. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies
- Author:
- Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
- Topic:
- Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
115. The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Genocide, Human Rights, European Union, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Asia, Netherlands, United States of America, and Xinjiang
116. COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies
- Author:
- Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programmes through a host of initiatives. These included efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We present and analyse detailed information about those national credit-support programmes implemented in the context of fiscal policy, in Europe’s five largest national economies (besides Russia) in 2020: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analytical part of the paper focuses on two aspects: How countries have dealt with the many trade-offs that emerged in designing and implementing the programmes; What explains the differentiated usage of the facilities in the examined countries, as well as its levelling off in the second half of 2020. Section 1 defines and describes the programmes. Section 2 presents the trade-offs we identified in programme design and implementation. Section 3 explores the factors explaining actual usage in the five countries and over time. Section 4 concludes. Annexes provide details on the programmes for each country (Annex 5) and in summarised matrix form (Annex 4).
- Topic:
- Business, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy
117. The day after: The conflicting implications of Brexit
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland
118. Good Practices in Risk Assessment for Terrorist Offenders
- Author:
- Sofia Koller
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In November 2019, two people were stabbed to death and three wounded in an attack near London Bridge. One year later, four people were killed and more than 20 injured in a shooting in the historic city center of Vienna. Both attacks were carried out by terrorist offenders recently released from prison. Several other incidents in recent years also involved former terrorist convicts. This brings the issues of risk assessment and management to the fore of the debate on Islamist extremism and terrorism.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Germany, and Austria
119. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications
- Author:
- Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America
120. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation
- Author:
- Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America
121. Cyber Defence in NATO Countries: Comparing Models
- Author:
- Alessandro Marrone and Ester Sabatino
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In 2016 NATO recognised cyber as a domain comparable to the air, land and sea ones, in consideration of the growing number of cyberattacks and of their negative impact on the cyberspace, as well as on the “real world”. Both NATO and its member states have launched initiatives to better tackle the cyber challenge both operationally and in terms of capability development. Nevertheless, among major NATO’s members a common approach to cyber defence is still missing, thus generating a division among countries that pursue a more active defence – US, UK and France – and those that prefer a more defensive approach – Germany and Spain.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and United States of America
122. The AUKUS agreement, what repercussions for the European Union?
- Author:
- Elie Perot
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- On 15 September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the formation of a partnership called "AUKUS", with the aim, among other things, of providing the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades. This trilateral agreement, presented by US President Joe Biden as responding to "the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term", serves the unstated but obvious purpose of counterbalancing an increasingly powerful, and sometimes aggressive, China in its neighbourhood and on the international scene. As such, the AUKUS agreement is not in itself fundamentally opposed to the objectives and interests of the European Union and, in particular, of France - the Member State that had been until now most strongly engaged in the Indo-Pacific in response to the Chinese challenge. Yet the announcement of the trilateral partnership between Canberra, Washington and London led to a particularly severe crisis with Paris, with France losing a major deal it had had with Australia since 2016 for the supply of 12 conventionally powered (dieselelectric) submarines. With the telephone exchange between Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron on 22 September, during which it was acknowledged that "the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners", it is possible that the worst of this diplomatic crisis is now over. The question now is whether this sequence, which at first sight was played out at the bilateral level between France and the three AUKUS states, could have wider and longer-term repercussions at the EU level. With this in mind, this paper first proposes to understand the new AUKUS agreement in its proper perspective, since above all it signifies a reinforcement of military industrial cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a true diplomatic revolution with regard to China. The paper then looks at the French response to this new partnership, emphasising that it was first and foremost the secrecy surrounding the formation of AUKUS, and not so much the resulting breach of the Franco-Australian submarine contract, that led to such high levels of diplomatic tension. Finally, this paper seeks to assess the extent to which France succeeded in bringing this crisis to the European level, with what consequences, but also what limitations.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia
123. The post-Brexit EU-UK relationship: an opportunity or challenge for cyber security?
- Author:
- Ellie Templeton and Robert Dewar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With multiple post-Brexit pathways that could still be pursued following the recent adoption of the new security agreements, the EU-UK cyber security relationship is still evolving. Value must be placed on collaboration to tackle shared cyber threats, the role EU institutions play in bringing cyber security actors together, and Britain’s former contribution to European security. These factors strongly indicate that, although new opportunities may present themselves, there will likely be irreversible losses for collective cyber resilience due to Brexit. In order to work towards a new, valuable relationship model, it is recommended that both the EU and UK uphold professional, transparent and non- political security cooperation going forward, whilst remaining open to flexible operational support in the unpredictable and ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Ultimately, within an international system affected by “instability, insecurity and uncertainty”,61 it remains to be seen what opportunities and challenges arise, and if the resulting relationship, whether based on one specific pathway or a combination of all three, could constitute an effective EU relationship model for non-EU entities in the cyber security field.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
124. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council
- Author:
- Andrew Duff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
125. Brexit and Beyond: the union
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Tensions about the relationships between the UK’s component parts have never been too far from the surface during the political crisis triggered by Brexit. The question of what happens to powers that were formerly exercised at the EU level, but which fall within devolved competence, has been a recurrent source of disagreement between the UK Government and the devolved administrations. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and the union.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
126. Brexit and Beyond: politics
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- How politics in the UK develops over the coming months and years will depend at least in part on the degree to which its focus moves on from Brexit. This mini report on politics taken from our Brexit and Beyond report makes clear, politics will be about far more than inter party competition.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
127. Brexit and Beyond: policy
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and policy looking at a wide range of policy areas including immigration, social care, cyber security and manufacturing.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, Cybersecurity, Brexit, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
128. Brexit and Beyond: public opinion
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon public opinion, from the growing division between British voters and the lasting importance of Remain and Leave identities, to the increasing salience of social values, Scotland’s appetite for independence, and the fluctuating importance of immigration to the British electorate.
- Topic:
- Politics, Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, Domestic Politics, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
129. Brexit and Beyond: economy
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its consequences for the economy, from its impact upon inequality, employment, and public finances, to future prospects for British trade outside of the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and Public Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
130. Freeports
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Freeports will be the centrepiece of the Budget, presented as a concrete sign, especially to ‘left behind’ communities, both of the benefits of Brexit and the Government’s commitment to the ‘levelling up’ agenda. For those looking to create ‘Global Britain’, freeports send out a message: we’re open for business. In this report, Deputy Director Professor Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University examines both the rationale for them and the existing evidence on them. The report concludes that freeports are unlikely to be a magic bullet.
- Topic:
- Budget, European Union, Business, Brexit, and Freeports
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
131. Brexit and Beyond: government, law and external relations
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon British governance and the constitutional makeup of the UK, and what Britain’s place in the world is set to look like outside of the European Union. This mini report is taken from the Brexit and Beyond report.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Governance, Law, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
132. Whitehall in Brussels: the UK permanent representation to the EU
- Author:
- Matthew Bevington
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK has left the European Union but the two sides, as neighbours, partners and competitors, will need to continue to work with each other. How this happens matters. The report author, Matt Bevington, looks at how the UK interacted with the EU in the past, and what role the UK mission might play in those interactions going forward.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
133. Comfortable leavers: the expectations and hopes of the overlooked Brexit voters
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This briefing paper draws on workshops conducted by NatCen in summer 2020 with a group of voters we have labelled ‘Comfortable Leavers’. Often overlooked, in favour of narratives that have emphasised the role of the ‘left behind,’ we thought it important to understand what this sizeable part of the Leave vote thought about Brexit and hoped for the future of the country.
- Topic:
- Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, Voting, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
134. The EU Settlement Scheme
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) allows EU nationals who arrived by 31 December 2020 (and some others) to protect their rights to live and work in the UK. The aim of this report is to explain the scheme, its background, how it works, who has applied, who may not have, and the lessons we have learned so far.
- Topic:
- Border Control, European Union, Citizenship, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
135. EU-UK 2030
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Five years on from the EU referendum, we are still attempting to learn lessons and digest those we have learnt. In this country, the vast majority of attention has, unsurprisingly, focused on developments here – in parliament, in our constitutional settlement, and in the country as a whole. But how did the EU and its member states approach the Brexit process? What were their priorities in the lengthy negotiations? How did they view the UK, and what are their priorities for their relationship with it in the years ahead?
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Brexit, Negotiation, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
136. Global Britain: views from abroad
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- ‘Global Britain’ is the term used to denote the UK’s approach to the world post-Brexit. The success of ‘Global Britain’ depends not simply on the energy and resources devoted to it by the UK Government but also on the participation of potential partners. To consider what these reactions might be, UK in a Changing Europe and the School of Security Studies at King’s College London consider perceptions of Global Britain across different states around the world in this new report.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
137. Covid or Brexit?
- Author:
- Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Alan Wager, Sarah Overton, and Joël Reland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The world is emerging from the COVID pandemic, with society and the economy opening up again. The immediate impact has been widespread supply and labour shortages, and rising inflation. But for the UK, the issue is not simply that of post-pandemic disruption, but also the early impacts of the decision to leave the European Union, replacing our membership of the Single Market and customs union with a minimal free trade deal. In what follows, we explore the extent to which current problems in the UK economy are down solely to post pandemic disruption or also the result of the altered terms of trade and labour mobility with the EU.
- Topic:
- Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
138. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. It forms the first of a series of trackers which will keep tabs on the latest developments in the regulatory divergence landscape.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
139. What do MPs think? expectations, issues and identities
- Author:
- Alan Wager and Paula Surridge
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This briefing, authored by Dr Alan Wager, sets out where the House of Commons stands on key public policy issues facing the country and its expectations for the future. Drawing on a representative survey of Members of Parliament undertaken by Ipsos MORI between June and August 2021, it provides a pen portrait of opinion within the corridors of Westminster.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Brexit, Survey, Society, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
140. The impact of Brexit on UK services
- Author:
- Sarah Hall and Martin Heneghan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The service sector stands as a clear exemplar of the trade-offs entailed by Brexit. The emphasis placed by the government on reclaiming regulatory autonomy during the negotiations over the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), and the particular importance of ending freedom of movement had particularly serious consequences for those who import or export services. In this report, Sarah Hall, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe and Martin Heneghan, Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham explore the consequences to date of Brexit, and particularly of the TCA, for service providers.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, Services, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
141. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: second edition
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the second edition of the tracker, covering changes which took place predominantly between September-December 2021.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
142. Two Birds, One Budget: Using ODA for Influence and Development in the Indo-Pacific?
- Author:
- Rachael Calleja, Sam Hughes, and Beata Cichocka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the UK’s proposed “Indo-Pacific tilt” from a development perspective. In light of recent cuts to the UK’s official development assistance (ODA), we ask how the UK can use scarce development resources in the Indo-Pacific more effectively to capitalise on opportunities to support strategic objectives while ensuring that ODA remains squarely focused on development priorities. Our analysis seeks to understand both how the UK is positioned within the Indo-Pacific, which is an already-crowded development landscape, as well as where the UK’s strategic and developmental priorities in the region might meaningfully overlap. We find that while there are some opportunities for the UK to support both development objectives and strategic interests concurrently in the Indo-Pacific—such as in the provision of regional and global public goods—the countries with the greatest strategic value to the UK are not those where additional ODA could contribute most clearly to poverty reduction. We conclude the paper with six policy recommendations. Among others, we propose that the UK should consider partnering with other like-minded providers to maximise its presence in the region.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific
143. Facilitating Environmental Migration through Humanitarian and Labour Pathways: Recommendations for the UK Government
- Author:
- Helen Dempster, Amelia Dal Pra, and Mariam Traore Chazalnoel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The impact of climate change, environmental degradation, and disasters on migration and human mobility is receiving more and more attention, by policymakers, academics, and the press alike. While there are gaps in the evidence base, much suggests that the vast majority of people will seek to move internally and regionally, rather than internationally. That being said, there are good reasons as to why high-income countries may want to facilitate so-called international “environmental migration” by adapting their existing legal and policy frameworks. This paper outlines how countries such as the United States of America (US), Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and various European countries have explored, created, or adapted their legal and policy frameworks to explicitly respond to international environmental migration, and the lessons learned therein. It concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) as to how the UK could adapt their own legal and policy frameworks to better respond to international environmental migration.
- Topic:
- Environment, Migration, Governance, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
144. Rethinking Humanitarian Reform: What Will it Take to Truly Change the System?
- Author:
- Patrick Saez, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Rose Worden
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This brief summarizes three years of research under the project, “Rethinking Humanitarian Reform,” led by Jeremy Konyndyk, Patrick Saez, and Rose Worden, and funded by the aid departments of the United Kingdom and Australia. The project aimed to understand the incentives behind the humanitarian system and shift them to better prioritize the needs of affected populations.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Reform, and Institutionalism
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and Global Focus
145. Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors
- Author:
- Corentin Brustlein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts. The current and expected demise of the traditional arms-control architecture, the renewed strategic competition, and the polarization of the multilateral debate on nuclear weapons have contributed to this renewed salience. Building upon the 2019 G7 Statement on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this report defines strategic risk reduction as the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral measures that aim at lowering the likelihood of nuclear weapons use through improved communication, predictability, and restraint, and underlines the need to adopt a strategic approach to nuclear risk reduction. Risks emanating from conflict dynamics between nuclear powers are different in nature and severity from those arising from technical incidents. This report argues that in a context of growing geopolitical rivalries, diplomats should prioritize mitigating the former type of risk. Risk reduction efforts should aim at hindering the most dangerous behaviors in crisis time, through measures focusing both on nuclear forces and on nonnuclear capabilities, whose impact on strategic balances keeps growing. Strategic risk reduction can strengthen international security and strategic stability by complementing arms control measures and deterrence policies. It is therefore crucial to ensure that diplomatic initiatives aimed at limiting nuclear risks do not ultimately, and paradoxically, increase the risk of war. Historical experience shows not only the feasibility of such an approach, but also the concrete security benefits that can be derived from it, by channeling the behavior of nuclear powers in times of tensions, reducing the ambiguity inherent in certain strategies and behaviors, or laying the foundations for international regimes based on operational and strategic restraint as well as on transparency.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Confidence Building Measures
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, and United States of America
146. Complementarity or Competition? Franco-British Cooperation and the European Horizon of French Defense Policy
- Author:
- Alice Pannier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- What does future hold for the Franco-British defense partnership after Brexit? France and the United Kingdom have, for long, enjoyed a close defense relationship, thanks in part to their analogous strategic cultures. The 2010 Lancaster House treaties built on this proximity to expand cooperation in the fields of nuclear weapons, force projection, interoperability and industrial integration. In spite of genuine progress in the first years following the treaties, the Franco-British strategic partnership has had to face two pitfalls: on the one hand, Brexit and its political consequences for the United Kingdom, and, on the other hand, President Macron’s attempt to revive European defense and Franco-German cooperation. The tenth anniversary of Lancaster House should offer the opportunity to rethink the convergence between bilateral cooperation and the resolutely European horizon of French defense policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany
147. The EU–UK relationship: It is what it is
- Author:
- Fabian Zuleeg and Jannike Wachowiak
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement might have pulled both sides back from the brink of a no-deal cliff edge, but it remains a shaky foundation for the next stage of EU–UK relations. Both sides must invest in the relationship and rebuild trust to prevent any conflict from escalating into a tit-for-tat. Or else, they risk the collapse of the deal and the return to a no-deal-like state. In the first months of its new phase, the relationship is already off to a rocky start. The rows over the diplomatic status of the EU mission in London and the Commission’s (now reversed) decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol expose the volatility of the relations and the importance of good communication and trust. The hope for a deal came with the expectation that it would provide the foundation upon which a closer relationship could be constructed over time. It now seems more likely that it will be the basis for a diverging – and at times conflicting – relationship, with little prospect for a significantly closer economic relationship anytime soon. There seems little political appetite on both sides to build on the economic settlement meaningfully, which would require a significant shift of red lines. Previous expectations that a deal would pave the way for outstanding issues, such as the EU granting equivalence for financial services, have also diminished. Given both the political climate and many red lines, the agreed thin economic settlement may be the most we can expect.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
148. Europe after the Brits
- Author:
- Andrew Duff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
149. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?
- Author:
- Diego Acosta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
- Topic:
- Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
150. March 2021 Issue
- Author:
- Audrey Alexander, Kristina Hummel, Brian Michael Jenkins, Thomas Ruttig, and Douglas Weeks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- President Biden soon has to decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline agreed to by the previous administration. With time ticking down, the Biden administration has launched a major diplomatic push to broker a peace settlement for Afghanistan. As noted by Thomas Ruttig in this month’s feature article, “Whether and how much the Taliban have changed since their repressive rule over Afghanistan before the fall of 2001 is key to whether a potential peace settlement can create a social and political landscape in Afghanistan that is acceptable to the people of Afghanistan, as well as the United States and NATO allies.” Ruttig assesses that “While the Taliban have softened their rhetoric on some issues (for example, on women’s rights and education) and there is evidence of real policy change in certain areas (for example, on the use of media, in the education sector, a greater acceptance of NGOs, and an acceptance that a future political system will need to accommodate at least some of their political rivals), their policy adjustments appear to have been largely driven by political imperatives rather than any fundamental changes in ideology.” He assesses that “Whether some changes in approach will be perpetuated will depend on the ability of Afghan communities and political groups to maintain pressure on the Taliban. This, in turn, depends on continued international attention toward Afghanistan.” Brian Michael Jenkins, in a feature commentary, examines several possible courses of action the Biden administration could take if the U.S. efforts to broker a peace settlement in Afghanistan do not result in a major breakthrough in the coming weeks. He writes: “What makes a decision on which path to follow so difficult is that each option carries a high risk of resulting in bad outcomes.” He notes that “Decisive action always looks good, but a turbulent world also means calculating risks, avoiding unintended consequences, and hedging bets.” This month’s interview is with Mary McCord, the executive director of the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at the Georgetown University Law Center, whose previous service in government included working as Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the U.S. Department of Justice from 2016 to 2017. She offers insights on the heightened threat of far-right extremist violence in the United States and how the country’s legal architecture could evolve to counter it. Douglas Weeks argues that there is “too much pessimism” in the United Kingdom about the possibility of deradicalizing terrorist offenders. He writes: “To address the root causes of the threat, the United Kingdom needs to learn lessons from what has worked for successful ‘deradicalization’ mentors and empower their efforts.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Radicalization
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United Kingdom, and United States of America
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