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52. Syria: Ruling over Aleppo’s Ruins
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
53. Violence as A Form of Political Conduct: The Case of the Islamic State
- Author:
- Jülide Karakoç
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- Following Hannah Arendt’s approach, which distinguishes power and violence and claims that violence appears when power is threatened or fails, this paper argues that the use of violence by Islamic State (IS) is a result of its inability to establish a stable power base in the Middle East. It argues, however, that violence has become a form of political conduct for this organisation, which challenges to Arendtian perspective rejecting any role violence plays in politics and has many repercussions in Middle Eastern societies and politics. This paper notes that local people feel hatred and rage against certain developments in the region, such as their countries’ colonial past, the Iraqi invasion and their failed administrations. Analysing how these reactions are directed in the form of violence by IS against some local groups, the paper examines further the regional consequences of the IS’ use of violence.
- Topic:
- Politics, Islamic State, Violence, and Hannah Arendt
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
54. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)
- Author:
- Ghazi Ghazi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates
55. THE DAY AFTER: Anticipating trouble in the event of a US withdrawal from Syria
- Author:
- Jomana Qaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With approximately nine hundred troops in northeastern and southeastern Syria, the United States ostensibly aims to prevent the reemergence of the Islamic State group (IS). The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, initiated by the Trump administration and completed by the Biden administration, was followed by the rapid collapse of the pro-Western government of Afghanistan and its replacement by the Taliban. This has led to questions about what will happen if and when US forces withdraw from northeastern Syria. A new issue brief by Atlantic Council’s Senior Fellow Jomana Qaddour examines the social, political, and economic implications and the challenges to US presence in Syria. While the US military presence remains limited in number, this report also underscores how aggregate US influence is much more potent than a force number of nine hundred suggests. US troop presence has enhanced counterterrorism operations, obstructed IS and Iranian smuggling routes, and facilitated humanitarian aid and economic benefits to a population in Syria that would be languishing under even more dire conditions. It can be argued that it has also limited local violence and halted a resurgence of public IS activities. According to the most recent Syria policy review, US presence is limited to the goal of counterterrorism operations, which implies that it is a conditions-based, not calendar-based deployment. Those conditions should include local Syrian forces that can reasonably deny IS a safe haven from which to plot terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies. It is well known that the Assad regime is not likely to provide the necessary capability to assure the United States and its allies that it can prevent IS’s return. In reality, there is little room to positively read the reassertion of Syrian government control over northeastern Syria; and withdrawal from Syria would be a serious gamble for US national security concerns in Syria and the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
56. Attacks on Hospitals from Syria to Ukraine: Improving Prevention and Accountability Mechanisms
- Author:
- Elise Baker and Gissou Nia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it soon began implementing one of its frequent—and criminal—tactics that it had already been using in its military intervention in Syria: bombing healthcare and medical facilities. Syrian government forces first began targeting health workers in Syria in 2011 at the start of the Syria crisis, and Russia joined them in targeting the healthcare system upon its official entrance to the conflict in 2015. Over the course of the conflict, over 90 percent of 601 recorded attacks on medical facilities were attributable to either Syrian or Russian forces. In Ukraine, Russia has reportedly perpetrated more than 200 attacks on healthcare facilities and ambulances since the start of the invasion. The well-documented pattern of targeted attacks on healthcare in Syria and Ukraine undermines long-established and hard-won provisions under international humanitarian law intended to protect civilians during conflict. Despite the scale of the problem, which extends beyond Syria and Ukraine, there has been no prominent criminal prosecution of any alleged perpetrators of attacks on healthcare in any conflict, no establishment of a UN mandate dedicated to this issue, and no task force created by national governments specifically aimed at prevention of and accountability for these crimes. The international community’s failure to compel meaningful action to stop the criminal practice of targeting healthcare in conflict after conflict has resulted in continued deaths of health workers and civilian populations. In a new issue brief by the Atlantic Council Strategic Litigation Project‘s Elise Baker and Gissou Nia, the two propose recommendations to UN bodies, the World Health Organization, national governments and other institutions and decision makers for concrete actions to prevent future attacks and advance accountability for past ones.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Accountability, International Community, Hospitals, and Atrocity Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria
57. Turkey as Normative Power: Connections with the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Beatrix Futak-Campbell and Hylke de Sauvage Nolting
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The debate on normative power has mainly been focused on the European Union. This is partly owing to the fact that its conception is very Euro/Western centric. Yet, it is assumed that the concept is applicable to other actors. The aim of this paper therefore is to examine Turkey and whether its actions embody normative power in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring. It applies de Zutter’s four-step methodology of identifying normative power. The result is mixed. In the case of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey tried to be a normative power but failed, due to a lack of recognition. In the case of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey was perceived as a normative power due to the combination of its Islamic identity, adherence to democracy, and the role of religion in its society. The implications of this are significant, since this paper demonstrates that normative power can travel outside of its Euro/Western centric context. At the same time, it also demonstrates that the norms are different and context specific.
- Topic:
- Religion, Social Movement, Arab Spring, Norms, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Egypt
58. Beyond Turkey’s ‘zero problems’ policy Motives, means and impact of the interventions in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Nienke van Heukelingen and Bob Deen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, but especially after the failed coup d’état in 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has shifted from ‘zero problems’ to the pursuit of strategic depth and autonomy in its neighbourhood. In 2020, Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus became three theatres for Ankara’s new hard-power tactics, a policy that may well be here to stay (at least until the elections in 2023). This policy brief explores the strategic motives, the means of intervention and the impact of Turkish operations in these three conflict areas. While Turkey’s strategic considerations, modalities and consequences vary greatly from case to case, certain parallels can be drawn. They reveal an overall pattern of a much more assertive Turkey that is increasingly willing to deploy a combination of political and military means to secure its strategic objectives in its immediate neighbourhood.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, Syria, and South Caucasus
59. Politicking in Doha: But will the Syrian opposition shift to more pragmatic diplomacy?
- Author:
- Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) are in dire need of internal renewal and a new political strategy given the deadlock of UN-led peace negotiations. A forthcoming opposition gathering on 4 February in Doha with more than 80 Syrian opposition leaders, activists and academics might offer an opportunity to do so. However, the event’s public face is Riyad Hijab, who is no longer part of the SOC and is seen as pursuing an internal leadership takeover. It is likely that the event will be part of a series that seeks to create a new centre of opposition without creating a new opposition body. Yet, neither Hijab’s internal politicking nor possible legitimacy/efficiency gains from implementation of a parallel SOC internal reform plan will generate a new political strategy for the opposition. This requires creative and pragmatic diplomacy that focuses on, for example, negotiating crossline arrangements between all conflict parties that improve local security and facilitate travel, trade and aid to improve the desperate situation of the Syrian people — in line with the UN’s call for a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE). The habits of dialogue and compromise that can gradually develop in this manner could be leveraged at a later stage to address the more complex issues of power sharing and reconstruction once an appropriate window of opportunity has opened up.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Syrian War, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Doha
60. A new conflict management strategy for Syria: Creating a Safe, Calm and Neutral Environment
- Author:
- Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The search for peace in Syria faces a deep crisis. The battlefield has reached a stalemate, the Constitutional Committee never emerged from its cul-de-sac, and the UN’s ‘step-for-step’ approach suffers from flawed conceptual underpinnings as well as a lukewarm reception. Meanwhile, Syria remains divided into three areas that risk drifting further apart amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions. This reality on the ground should serve as a marker for recalibrating Western policy on Syria beyond the current focus on sanctions, accountability, and humanitarian aid. Western policy makers – mostly those from the US, European Union and Turkey – must base a much-needed new conflict management strategy on three ‘ground truths’: 1) the conflict is largely frozen and Syria is likely to remain divided into competing areas of control that are supported, or overseen, by external powers for the foreseeable future; 2) questions of national legitimacy and power sharing are not currently solvable and must be temporarily put on the back burner; c) diplomatic efforts to stabilise Syria and prevent partition are likely to be more effective when they focus on restoring practical connectivity between the different areas of control in terms of flows of people, goods and trade/aid/investment, as well as education. Such a strategy can take shape by operationalising the UN-sanctioned concept of a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE) via a clear set of principles for engagement, a detailed stakeholder/interest mapping of the various conflict parties, and a focus on pragmatic measures to improve daily conditions. The objective of such a strategy is to enable a durable return to relatively normal life for Syrians still living in the country, and to create linkages between the country’s war-torn parts that can open windows of opportunity in the longer term for a political process reflecting the intention of UNSCR 2254.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Peace, and Conflict Management
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
61. War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss and Carmit Valensi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation?
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
62. Five Good Years for the Campaign between Wars in Syria: What Comes Next?
- Author:
- Carmit Velensi and Eden Kaduri
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Israeli Air Force jets, according to foreign sources, have struck targets in Syria for over five years, in order to reduce Iran’s entrenchment in the theater. Despite their impressive achievements, these attacks are not enough to curtail the threat from the northern border to any significant degree. Israel would do well to formulate a new strategy vis-à-vis Syria, tailored to the changing reality – and the sooner this begins, the better
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
63. Toward a Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian Response: Centering Women and Girls in Integrated Health and Protection Services in Syria
- Author:
- Amany Qaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- While regional instability and upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa may have foreshadowed the complexity and longevity of the crisis that would unfold in Syria in 2011, few anticipated it would exceed ten years, amounting to 6.8 million refugees across the world and 14.6 million people in need of hu- manitarian assistance within the country.1 The crisis has been defined by mass displacements, with large swaths of the population uprooted from their homes and forced to reside in camps and precarious housing; sieges in Aleppo City and Eastern Ghouta; chemical weapons attacks in Khan Shaykhoun and Douma; infectious disease outbreaks, including polio and cholera; food insecurity, notably among children and infants; a rise in persons with disabilities; persecution of aid workers; and both systematic and indiscriminate aerial bombardment of civilian infrastructure—namely hospitals, schools, and marketplaces.
- Topic:
- Health, Women, Syrian War, Girls, Humanitarian Response, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
64. The Legal Role of Government in Protecting Cultural Heritage and Archaeological Sites in the War-Affected Countries: The Case of Iraq and Syria
- Author:
- Rukhsar Ahmad
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Conserving cultural heritage and archaeological sites have become a serious national concern in the Middle East for the war-affected countries, including Iraq and Syria. Because looting and violence have caused massive destruction of cultural heritage and archaeological sites, this study aimed to analyze the legal background concerning the protection of cultural heritage and archaeological sites in the context of Iraq and Syria during 2014 with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This study used the content analysis method and cross-country analyses for Iraq and Syria. The study is guided by two main questions: What is the government's legal role in protecting cultural heritage and archaeological sites? Are there any legal authorities in Iraq and Syria to protect cultural heritage and archaeological sites during war and conflict? In the end, this paper suggests that protecting cultural heritage is the legal responsibility of government which is supposed to be enforced in the legal foundation of the state as a national sovereign power.
- Topic:
- War, Governance, Culture, Legal Theory, Heritage, and Archaeology
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
65. Syria’s Wheat Crisis
- Author:
- Jesse Weinberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In September issue of Beehive, Jesse Weinberg analyses the food crisis in Syria.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Social Media, Syrian War, Food Crisis, and Wheat
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
66. COVID-19 as a Green Light for the Regeneration of ISIS’ Forces in North-East Syria
- Author:
- Oskar Schaefer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- Following the fall of the so-called Islamic State in March 2019, tens of thousands of its fighters, along with their wives and children, were captured and detained in facilities controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria. Many of which were European. Based on the information provided by scientific institutes and journalists, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic had had a significant impact on the functioning of those facilities. Not only did it aggravate an already severe humanitarian crisis, pushing the detainees to reinforce their attempts of escaping and rioting against the guards, but it also lowered the security level in the controlled facilities, allowing a flourishing of criminal activities. Furthermore, the detainment of ISIS followers turned into a political game between the Kurdish coalition and the United States. The global health crisis put to the test the strategy of many Western governments of keeping European ISIS fighters in the Middle East while pressuring the international community to rethink its approach towards this crescent problem.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, ISIS, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
67. The Age of Political Jihadism: A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Syria-based group now functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, portending a reorientation for the larger jihadist movement. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group previously linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and to al-Qaeda, has evolved in ways that challenge accepted views of “jihadism.” Now ruling over territory in Syria’s northern Idlib and western Aleppo governorates, it functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, and HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani is seeking the group’s removal from the U.S. State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. But HTS is hardly anodyne. The group still espouses extremist beliefs that glamorize terrorism abroad, and its fighters fire rockets into civilian areas controlled by the Assad regime. Moreover, HTS hosts other designated groups in its territory, including Jamaat Ansar al-Islam, Katibat Imam al-Bukhari, and Katibat al-Tawhid wal Jihad. In this thought-provoking Policy Focus, illustrated with photographs of HTS personalities and personnel, jihadism expert Aaron Y. Zelin digs deep into the group’s past before reckoning with the implications of Jawlani’s request. Whatever the U.S. decision, he suggests, political jihadism is here to stay.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Governance, Jihad, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Idlib
68. Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria. On July 10, a United Nations vote will decide the future of the cross-border aid mechanism for northwest Syria, an area run by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The mechanism—which facilitates aid to northwest Syria via Turkey without having to go through Damascus—faces the prospect of nonrenewal for the first time since it was created in 2014, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A failure to renew the mechanism would exacerbate an already daunting humanitarian situation in northwest Syria, where some three-fourths of the population consists of internally displaced persons (IDPs). While aid will likely continue on a far more limited basis if Russia vetoes the mechanism, from a U.S. perspective a more self-reliant HTS-run territory requiring less international assistance would actually be far preferable to a situation in which aid renewal remains subject to periodic dramas. Over the past roughly six years, HTS has transformed itself from an al-Qaeda branch into something resembling a typical regional state governing body, with the group engaging in human rights violations and embracing inflammatory rhetoric. To begin with, it has focused increasingly on developing local institutions and the economy. The group’s strides in governance have been facilitated, in part, by the March 2020 Turkey-Russia ceasefire agreement, which more or less froze the conflict line. Since then, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani has reiterated the value he places on self-sufficiency and constructing a new polity and society that does not rely on outside help. If HTS and its civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) actually followed through on Jawlani’s ideas, locals could find other avenues to support themselves. Yet one must acknowledge at this point that HTS has not matched its lofty rhetoric with efforts to develop indigenous capabilities. Instead, it has worked hard to monopolize economic power.
- Topic:
- Politics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
69. Arab Syrian IDPs of Tal Rifaat also Want to Go Home
- Author:
- Rena Netjes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The involvement of Turkish military forces in Northern Syria could allow thousands of Syrians to return to their homes after being forced out by the YPG, the SDF, and other entities for many years. In the West, there has been strong opposition to a newly planned Turkish/Syrian National Army (SNA) military operation in northern Syria. Yet for many displaced Arabs from Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and the surrounding villages, they are welcoming the idea of the liberation of their towns and villages. In fact, they have been asking the Turkish-backed SNA to liberate their area for years. Outside articles often focus exclusively on the Kurdish residents of northern Syria and emphasize that another military operation will automatically mean displacement of the Kurdish population. Yet the area constitutes a mix of Arab and Kurd-dominated towns, and Arab residents have their own history of displacement. In 2016, the entire Arab population was displaced in Tal Rifaat, a (historically) majority Arab town on the west side of the Euphrates, in a coordinated military operation by Russia, the Syrian regime, and militants from the People’s Defense Units (YPG) from Afrin. The YPG also attempted to connect the majority Kurdish enclaves of Kobani and Afrin through majority Arab areas, triggering a refugee flow of Arabs mainly from the two towns and surrounding villages to the Turkish border.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Internal Displacement, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Tal Rifaat
70. R2P Monitor, Issue 63, 1 December 2022
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 63 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic
71. R2P Monitor, Issue 62, 1 September 2022
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 62 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, South Sudan, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria and Sudan.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic
72. R2P Monitor, Issue 61, 1 June 2022
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 61 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Mozambique and Sudan.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic
73. R2P Monitor, Issue 60, 1 March 2022
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 60 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic
74. Q&A with CCAS Assistant Professor Killian Clarke
- Author:
- Vicki Valosik and Killian Clarke
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- Last fall, CCAS was pleased to welcome our newest core faculty member, political scientist Dr. Killian Clarke. Assistant Professor Clarke’s research centers around protest, revolution, and regime change in the Middle East and beyond. He has written about the causes of Egypt’s 2011 revolution, protest and unrest in Syrian refugee camps, pro-democracy social movements in Egypt, and processes of democratization in the post-colonial world. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, World Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Mediterranean Politics, and Comparative Politics. Dr. Clarke is currently writing a book on counterrevolution, which uses the case of Egypt’s 2013 coup and an original global dataset on counterrevolution to explain why some revolutionary governments are toppled by counterrevolutions whereas others go on to establish durable and long-lasting regimes. The graduate-level courses he is currently teaching for CCAS include “Comparative Politics of the Middle East” and “Revolutions in the Middle East.” Dr. Clarke earned his PhD from Princeton University and holds an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from NYU’s Hagop Kevorkian Center and a BA from Harvard University. Prior to joining CCAS, he was a Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow with the Weatherhead Scholars Program at Harvard University. He has kindly agreed to answer a few questions about his research and teaching.
- Topic:
- Arab Spring, Protests, Interview, and Counterrevolution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Egypt
75. ISIS in Syria and Iraq
- Author:
- Charles Lister and Mick Mulroy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Charles Lister and Mick Mulroy discuss discuss the dramatic Feb. 3rd U.S. special operations raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the group’s late January attack on the al-Sina prison, and ISIS’s broader trajectory in both Syria and Iraq.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
76. The Parallels of Ukraine and Syria
- Author:
- Charles Lister and Iulia-sabina Joja
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Iulia-Sabina Joja and Charles Lister discuss the parallels between the wars in Ukraine and Syria, the similarities of Russia’s tactics in both conflicts, and what the recent history in Syria may signal for Ukraine in the months ahead.
- Topic:
- History, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria
77. The Meeting Between Assad and Khameini: What was on the Table?
- Author:
- Marta Furlan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
78. The War Economy of the Fragmented Healthcare System in Syria
- Author:
- Omar Dewachi, Duncan McLean, and Aula Abbara
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- This devastating conflict that has had a profound impact in Syria, the region and beyond, caused immense suffering. At least 400,000 Syrians have lost their lives. More than 6 million refugees, out of a pre-war population of 22 million, have fled the country and 6.7 million are internally displaced. Over 13 million people continue to need assistance, and yet Syria seems to have dropped off the radar. In this panel discussion, hosted by the Centre for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR) at Rutgers University, experts with in-depth knowledge of Syria and the region will examine some of the challenges humanitarian organisations faced as consequence of the war in Syria. Panellists will examine the relationship between health-care provision on the one hand, and the state’s claim to sovereignty and legitimacy on the other, and how the humanitarian response became quickly entangled into the polarized sides of the Syria war. They will look at how the protracted conflict in Syria has fragmented the country’s health system. They will also describe how, in the absence of a meaningful foreign policy, aid delivery came to fuel Syria’s war economy raising troubling questions as to the limits humanitarian organizations are prepared to accept when operating in a broader system of corruption, predation and denial of access. Guest speakers all contributed separate chapters to the book on Syria edited by MSF “Everybody’s war: politics of aid in the Syria crisis”
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Economy, Syrian War, Humanitarian Organizations, and Healthcare System
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
79. Geopolitical Struggle between Russia and Turkey: The Intersection of Ukraine and Syrian Crises
- Author:
- Rahman Dag
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- As a new but uncertain international system has been operating for decades that can be regarded as a transition from unipolarity to something resembling multipolarity. Therefore, established and possible future great powers have been determining their foreign policies according to their future projections of the regional conflicts. This paper investigates Turkey and Russia’s stances in the Syrian and Ukrainian Crises. It might sound odd that Russia and Turkey are comparable in a struggle for the sphere of influence that intercepts each other. However, their good bilateral relations and different, even conflictual, approaches to regional and international issues provide a suitable ground to claim that a new international system is about to emerge. It will continue until the positions of established and newly emerged great powers are embedded. In practice, Russia's stance in the Ukrainian crisis and Turkey's stance in the Syrian crisis represent ontological threads to the vision of their own countries. However, they can still work together at a certain level because of third-party involvement in the issues
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria
80. What Strategic Posture Should France Adopt in the Middle East?
- Author:
- Héloïse Fayet
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- France has a historical presence in the Middle East, where it has many interests to defend: the fight against terrorism, the promotion of the arms industry, the dissemination of humanitarian values, etc. To this end, it has a number of resources at its disposal, notably military: French forces are deployed in Iraq, Syria and Jordan as part of Operation Chammal, in Lebanon for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and in the United Arab Emirates. This strategic posture, inherited from the history and "Arab policy" of the 20th century, is now being called into question by the geopolitical upheavals in the region. The resizing of the American presence in the Middle East, initiated by the withdrawal from Afghanistan, is accompanied by a growing assumption of responsibility for their own security by local actors. This evolution is embodied, for example, in the signing of the Abraham Accords, which redefine the place of Israel. The American pulling out also allows extra-regional powers such as China and Russia to become progressively involved in the area. These transformations require an adaptation of the French posture in order to position itself as a credible actor in the strategic competition. It is therefore necessary to move away from the sole focus on counterterrorism, which no longer gathers partners, and more broadly to redefine the partnership strategy and the mechanism deployed on the ground. A strengthened interministerial, or even European, dynamic also seems essential in order to mobilize all the levers available to France.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, France, and Syria
81. The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Bombing
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
82. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
83. The Syrian Popular Uprising and the Decline of the Druze Political Role
- Author:
- Yusri Khaizran
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the second issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Yusri Khaizaran analyzes the position of the Druze in the Syrian Civil War between the Regime's forcefulness and the danger of radical Islam. The Druze in Syria have reached the acknowledgment that, for the first time in modern times, they face an existential threat. Al-Durziyya is a digital magazine co-published by the Druze Heritage Center and the Moshe Dayan Center in Hebrew and English. Al-Durziyya provides different perspectives on the social, cultural, and historical affairs of the Druze in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Syrian War, Islamism, and Druze
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
84. Towards a Renewed Local Social and Political Covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen
- Author:
- Ahmed Morsy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts. The paper’s argument is two-fold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution. The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these local-level dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve post-conflict stabilization rather than the opportunistic taking of sides.
- Topic:
- Politics, Arab Spring, Social Contract, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria
85. Horizontal inequalities and multi-sectarian societies: a study about the perception by Syrian refugees in Brazil of the socioeconomic situation and groups inequalities in Syria before the 2011 uprising
- Author:
- Danny Zahreddine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- After the beginning of the Arab Spring and the conflict in Syria, researchers worldwide are trying to understand the reasons that led to the civil war in that country. Many hypotheses are raised, from the deterioration of socioeconomic conditions, the increasingly harsh political and police repression against the regime's opponents, to the interest of regional powers in changing the Syrian regime. In this article, we decided to explore another dimension of conflict. After applying a questionnaire to a group of Syrian refugees in Brazil, we sought to understand the perception of respondents about the existence or not of horizontal inequality between the Syrian religious groups, in the economic, social, religious, political and cultural spheres. The result sheds light on the important role of the perception of horizontal inequality between groups as an essential source of discontent and frustration, which may have contributed to the breaking of the Syrian state's social-political pact.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Inequality, Syrian War, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Brazil, South America, and Syria
86. Energy and Geo-Economics: Evidence Underpinning Russian Intervention in Syria
- Author:
- Nada El Abdi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Since September 2015 and the Russian military intervention in the country, the interests in Syria have been numerous and of great importance for the actors involved in this conflict. The interests in Syria are numerous and of great importance for the actors involved in this conflict. Russia, like the Allies and opponents of the Bashar Al-Assad regime, is fighting for geopolitical, geo-economic, or ideological reasons. The Middle East region finds itself shaken by the sharp resurgence of a confrontation between actors allied to the United States, other allies of Russia, and this Syrian crisis thus impacts the geopolitical configuration of the region. This paper presents an analysis of the Russian intervention strategy in Syria. We argue that Russia intervened in Syria to strengthen the already existing Russian-Syrian alliance, to curb extremist proliferation, and to take advantage of Syria's strategic position. The objective is to determine the reasons for the Russian military intervention in Syria related to energy and geo-economic interests. The Russian intervention in Syria was an ideal opportunity to draw closer to several powerful states in the region and a way to benefit from positive spin-offs on its arms market and hydrocarbon road plans. Despite the risks and costs associated with defending the Syrian regime, Moscow has secured its political and economic power in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria
87. The Nature of the Engagement of the United States in the Syrian Crisis: A Thematic Analysis
- Author:
- Zainaddin M. Khidhir
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The complications of the Syrian crisis that has extended over six years are overseen on three distinct levels which are national, topographical, and global. A closer look at the situation in Syria in 2010/2011 will help explain why the regime has survived, the complexities of the situation in Syria, and what makes the search for a stable political settlement so difficult. The purpose of the present study is to highlight the nature of US engagement in the Syrian crisis which involves maintaining the US military presence for regional stability, ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS, countering the future expansion of the Iranian influence and political settlement to the conflict, containing the Assad’s regime in the interim. By outlining various threats, issues, assessing the Syrian conflict and its key actors, this paper seeks to explain the US response to the Syrian crisis on basis of thematic analysis. In conclusion, the United States' foreign policy has continued in a region vital to its national security interests due to available oil, its impetus to protect Israel, to support security by retaining military bases, to preserve the position of the protectorate of client states, and friendly regimes, and to resist Islamic movements and terrorism.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
88. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment
- Author:
- Ido Yahel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
89. Jordan: With Relations with Washington and Jerusalem Back in Order, a Flurry of Diplomatic Activity
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Jordanian diplomacy has been invigorated in recent months, with Jordan taking a major and sometimes leading role in significant regional developments. The renewed intensity and prominence are associated with marked improvement in relations with the United States and Israel, following the leadership changes in both countries. King ʿAbdullah II seems to have received a fresh mandate from the Biden Administration to help promote regional changes aimed at reducing the influence of Iran and its allies, in an era of declining direct American engagement in the region.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Government, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America
90. “We Dared to Dream, And We Will Never Regret Dignity” – The Slogan of the 10th Anniversary of the Syrian Uprising
- Author:
- Ido Yahel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Beehive, Ido Yahel analyses the online discourse on the Syrian revolution in occasion of its 10th anniversary.
- Topic:
- Social Media, Syrian War, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
91. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
92. Creativity Wanted: Countering the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions
- Author:
- Clara Portela
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Scarcely familiar with sanctions as a policy tool, much of the European public has followed the headlines about international sanctions with some puzzlement. After the UN lifted sanctions on Iran following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), why was it necessary to create a channel for bilateral trade, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), following the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018? Why is Iran insisting that the US lift sanctions ‘in practice, not verbally or on paper’? How did the US Senate approval of new legislation targeting Nord Stream 2, a pipeline under construction between Russia and Germany, bring work to an immediate standstill in late 2019? Why do European banks and private companies fear the US Department of the Treasury’s sanctions enforcement agency, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)? If sanctions regimes are endowed with humanitarian exemptions, why do humanitarian agencies report difficulties in getting aid to places like Syria ? As it turns out, these are ramifications of the same phenomenon: the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions. The present Brief examines these effects, describing why they pose a challenge to the EU. It then outlines the responses that have been activated or are being contemplated to counter them, explaining why an effective remedy remains elusive. The Brief concludes by indicating possible ways forward.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, and Transnational Actors
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Syria, and North America
93. How the Islamic State Sees the Future: Why the end of times does not mean the end
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- One would not exactly think of the Islamic State (IS) as a future-oriented organisation: it uses medieval-sounding language and barbaric methods and preaches an archaic lifestyle. In reality, however, it is very much a forward-looking organisation with clear ideas not just on what the future will bring, but on what it should bring. In fact, it is this attitude towards the future that has not only enabled its past successes, but also allowed the organisation to persist and endure since losing its territory in Syria and Iraq – and, most importantly, what will determine its next steps and ambition. Understanding how IS conceives its own future will enable law enforcement authorities to take the necessary precautions ahead of time. This Brief first outlines why it is crucial to understand how the future as an organising principle shapes the strategy and posture of terrorist organisations, and shows that terrorist organisations lacking such a concept will lose traction faster than those that do. It goes on to examine IS’s future concept pre-and post-loss of its territory and to elaborate why it was and is an attractive future. Lastly, it seeks to anticipate the future trajectory IS will take based on its articulation of an eschatological vision of the future.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Islamic State, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria
94. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30
- Author:
- Gergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. The homicide rate also decreased marginally due to population growth outpacing the nominal increase in killings between 2017 and 2018. These two trends jointly resulted in a modest positive change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 which, at 7.8 violent deaths per 100,000 population, is at its lowest since 2012. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, a Briefing Paper by the Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths and develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. Based on 2018 figures from the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths (GVD) database, the paper also includes a specific analysis of developments in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern Africa’s violent death rate would remain relatively stable by 2030. By contrast, under the same scenario, the fatality rate in the G5 Sahel region would increase significantly.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Conflict, Violence, and Death
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, and South Sudan
95. Engaging Russia over Syria: Managing Peripheral Conflict and Narrowing Interests
- Author:
- Aaron Stein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States is examining how to narrow core objectives in the Middle East to focus on improving military readiness and increasing the number of low-density, high-demand assets available for deployment in Asia and Europe. To free up more forces and to help improve readiness, Washington should explore selective engagement with Moscow about securing a formal ceasefire in Syria’s northwest and reaching agreement on a “no-foreign forces zone” in Syria’s south. This policy would not alter the status quo in Syria, but seek to use diplomatic tools to allow for the reallocation of certain resources now tasked with protecting U.S. ground forces. This engagement with the Russian Federation would elevate a key U.S. interest and use counter-terrorism capabilities based in Jordan to disrupt plots against the homeland. It would also seek to use diplomatic tools to create conditions to remove forces that do not directly support this counter-terrorism effort. This approach would retain U.S. forces in the Middle East, but in a way that allows for certain assets to be repositioned in either the United States, Indo-Pacific, or Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
96. Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization: Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West
- Author:
- Robert E. Hamilton and Anna Mikulska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) original adversary and one of its earliest members have in recent times veered sharply between cooperation—often against NATO’s interests—and competition so intense that it seemed war between them was possible. Politically, their leaders and their systems of government share a basic compatibility predicated on authoritarianism and resistance to what they claim is Western meddling in internal affairs. Militarily, Moscow and Ankara have at times cooperated closely. For instance, the two have worked to marginalize the U.S. military’s influence in Syria, and Turkey has purchased and deployed Russian S-400 air defense systems, putting its defense relationship with the United States in jeopardy. At other times, such as in the military escalation in Idlib (Syria), the Libyan Civil War, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, the two have found themselves backing different sides and had to work assiduously to prevent a direct military clash. Economically, the relationship has been historically unbalanced in Russia’s favor, but Turkey’s increasing trade in services and emergence as an important energy storage and transport hub may change this. The two economies share a basic complementarity, with few areas where they compete in the production of goods and services. This dynamic may increase the ability of their economic relationship to act as a “shock absorber” and minimize the impact of disruptions in other facets of their ties. Overall, Moscow and Ankara have worked to emphasize areas of cooperation and “compartmentalize” areas of difference. Policymakers in Western capitals will need to develop an understanding of the drivers of the Russian-Turkish relationship and their effects on Western interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
97. “Securitization from Society” and “Social Acceptance”: Political Party-Based Approaches in Turkey to Syrian Refugees
- Author:
- M. Murat Erdoğan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The number of refugees in Turkey exceeded 4 million in a short period of time due to the civil war in Syria, and Turkey has become the country hosting the largest number of refugees from 2014 onwards. The concerns of Turkish society, which portrayed an extraordinary solidarity initially, have become apparent in terms of refugees, almost all of whom live side-by-side with Turkish society in urban areas. This paper is based on a comprehensive and representative research data about Turkish citizens’ attitudes towards Syrian refugees. This study critically analyses traditional securitisation studies and instead puts forward the concepts of the “securitization from society” and “social acceptance” to be able to analyse the views of Turkish public towards Syrian refugees .
- Topic:
- Security, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Syria
98. Turkey’s Response to Syrian Mass Migration: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis
- Author:
- Zeynep Sahin Mencutek, N. Ela Gokalp Aras, and Bezen Balamir Coşkun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Migration studies have seldom dealt with the foreign policy dimensions of refugee migration. Additionally, international relations (IR) theories have barely addressed migration policy. The present study seeks to address this gap by analysing Turkey’s response to Syrian mass migration through the lens of neoclassical realist theory. Its purpose is to ascertain to what extent IR theories, particularly neoclassical realism, help us to understand Turkey’s policies and politics addressing Syrian mass migration and changes over time. It questions the pertinence of Turkey’s relative power and its foreign policy objectives in shaping responses to Syrian mass migration. The research also sheds much-needed light not only on dynamism in power-policy relations but also interaction between the international system and internal dynamics in designing migration policies. It aims to stimulate dialogue between IR theories and migration studies, with a particular focus on the foreign policy dimension of state responses to mass refugee migration.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Migration, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Syria
99. Putin Prioritizes Syria. Biden Should Too.
- Author:
- Anna Borshchevskaya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Moscow is in Syria for the long haul and will continue to undermine American efforts there. In recent months, Moscow intensified its activities in Syria against the backdrop of a changing US administration. The Kremlin sent additional military policy units to eastern Syria, and continued diplomatic engagement through the Astana format, a process that superficially has international backing but in practice excludes the United States and boosts Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, Moscow also unveiled at its airbase in Syria a statue to the patron saint of the Russian army, Prince Alexander Nevsky. A growing Russian presence in Syria will further hurt Western interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
100. The Making of the Kurdish Frontier: Power, Conflict, and Governance in the Iraqi-Syrian Borderlands
- Author:
- Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be geopolitically restless. Kurdish parties have taken advantage of central government weaknesses to increase their autonomy in these areas. Even after the collapse of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be one of the most geopolitically restless areas in the Middle East. In the last few years, a variety of Kurdish entities and groups have increasingly shaped the dynamics across the northern section of this border. In particular, there are two dynamics that deserve attention. First, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria have come to effectively control new border crossings in this area as the Syrian government has lost access and the Iraqi government’s presence has been contested. This means that the movement of people and goods in this area is largely controlled by two entities that are neither state nor nonstate actors. The reality on the ground reflects hybrid arrangements that have emerged as a result of the weaknesses of both central governments and the increasing autonomy gained by Kurdish parties (which, in the case of the KRG, is stipulated constitutionally). Second, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), by virtue of its participation in the war against the Islamic State and by taking advantage of the consequent power vacuum, managed to augment its influence along the border. Its ideological and organizational ties with local groups, such as the People Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) in Iraq, enabled it to exert security and political influence. On the one hand, this turned segments of the border into an arena for transnational, pan-Kurdish militancy. On the other hand, these groups’ presence intensified intra-Kurdish rivalries, especially between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is the KRG’s main ruling party, and the PKK. This rivalry reflects a clash of two visions for the border: the PKK’s revolutionary, transnational vision that seeks to eradicate or at least underplay the reality of the border; and the KDP’s pragmatic and territorial vision seeking to assert the border’s reality as a demarcation of the KRG’s authority and future statehood. In addition, the KDP is allied with Turkey, which has been fighting the PKK for several decades and is currently waging a military campaign against the group in northern Iraq and Syria. To a large extent, the future of this border is predicated on this geopolitical conflict and whether the PKK manages to entrench itself further or becomes isolated and marginalized as the KRG, the Autonomous Administration, and the Iraqi federal government assert their territorial authorities.
- Topic:
- Governance, Conflict, Borders, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
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