Author: / Political Geography: South America / Topic: International Trade and Finance

1. International Managerial Skill and Big Colombian Exporting Firms’ Performance, 2006-2014

Author:: Federico Merchan
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two-step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on firm performance. The first step quantifies the manager’s organizational capital contribution to improvements in Bloom et al.’s (2021) production efficiency (ability to assemble inputs into final goods) and/or quality capacity (skill to make high quality goods) mechanisms, through the median of export unit value regression residuals at firm-year level (multiplying by -1 the price competition products’ residuals). The second step is regression analysis of firm performance. Results indicate that: i) international managerial quality has a significant and robust positive effect on total export value via the intensive margin, ii) exported value elasticity relative to international managerial quality is around 3 times larger than exported value elasticity relative to exogenous global demand shocks, and iii) better managers in the international market do not necessarily upgrade export quality.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Exports, Management, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

2. Taking Stock of the Thirty Years of Mercosur

Author:: Leonardo Granato
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Over its thirty-year existence, Mercosur has experienced several changes, which refer to the models of open regionalism and multidimensional regionalism. Based on this argument, we seek to present, in this work, some interpretative notes, in a historical and institutional perspective, in order to provide subsidies for a balance of the bloc, in its three decades of operation. Focusing on the internal institutional dynamics of Mercosul and using bibliographic and documentary research, this paper discusses the integration models adopted and the main measures associated with the respective models along the bloc’s trajectory. Its conclusion points out to the current trend of resuming open regionalism in the midst of Mercosur´s precarious condition.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America

3. The Reform of the Brazilian Anti-Dumping Regime: A Partial Review of the Determinants and the Implications of Degree 8,058/2013

Author:: Rafael Pentiado Poerschke, Helio Henkin, and Ricardo Dias da Silva
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study considers the development and reform of the anti-dumping regime in Brazil as a ratification example of the multilateral trading system proposed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Brazil's history of leadership in the WTO Rounds, as well as its emergence among users of temporary barriers illustrates the fact that developing countries participate, with some success, in the endorsement and strengthening of the multilateral system itself. Using the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) as a model for its own regulatory framework, this practice ensures that domestic legislation will have greater compliance to international obligations and avoid constraints via the Dispute Settlement Body. Finally, the case of Decree 8,058/2013 highlighted the importance that specialized agents in the middle management of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) have in the management and improvement of the Brazilian public policy.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

4. The Politics of Pineapple: Examining the Inequitable Impacts of Southern Costa Rica's Pineapple Industry

Author:: Jennifer Brown, Tara Flint, and Jessca LaMay
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: The Global North’s growing demand for fresh pineapple has created a system that is disproportionately profitable for companies and consumers in those countries to the detriment of people living and working in the Global South. Since the mid-1980s the Pineapple Development Corporation (PINDECO), a subsidiary of U.S.-based Del Monte, has established a monopoly over fresh pineapple exports in southern Costa Rica. We conducted pilot research in the municipalities of Buenos Aires and San Isidro del General in 2019, where the majority of PINDECO’s production takes place. PINDECO and the Costa Rican state claim pineapple production is beneficial to national development through its contribution to Costa Rican gross domestic product and employment opportunities, but our research and recent data reveal that in pineapple producing areas in the southwest, poverty levels remain high with worsening water and food security despite PINDECO’s large profit margins. There are numerous human and environmental health concerns linked to pineapple monocropping. Intensive pesticide use often utilizes chemicals that are banned or restricted in the countries they are imported from. PINDECO has been able to evade responsibility for environmental damages and social welfare obligations to employees while maintaining a largely positive public image through a lax regulatory environment and extensive subcontracting structure. This article connects regional socioeconomic issues to the intricate power dynamics and collusion between industry and state. The findings suggest that Costa Rica is not as environmentally conscious and sustainable as its public image portrays, with pockets of profit-driven industries taking precedence over community well-being and environmental sustainability.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Development
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Costa Rica

5. Brazil-China Post-Covid-19: The Digital City

Author:: Philip Yang, Chen Cai, Gao Changlin, Luciana Gama Muniz, Marcelo Motta, Miguel Pinto Guimarães, Renata Fraga, and Washington Fajardo
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: Bilateral cooperation emerging from post-Covid-19 transformations brings challenges and opportunities, with the strengthening of digital cities standing out. This report presents the topics discussed in the webinar "Brazil-China post-Covid-19: The Digital City", held by CEBRI in partnership with the Embassy of China. Miguel Pinto Guimarães points out that "the future is being built by China over the last two decades at a fantastic growing speed that was made possible by planning, education, and intelligence". Chen Cai states that urban planning in large centers needs to be inclusive. "The objective of the smart cities is to have equality and services for everybody living in these cities, not only for some people."
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Cities, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

6. US-Brazil trade and FDI: Enhancing the bilateral economic relationship

Author:: Abrão Neto, Ken Hyatt, Daniel Godinho, Lisa Schineller, and Roberta Braga
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The year 2020 marks the turning of a page for the Western Hemisphere, a region that in 2019 saw uncertainty dominate headlines as new governments came in and out of office, trade tensions grew, and citizens took to the streets to voice their concerns with the status quo. For years, the opportunities that could come with a stronger bilateral relationship between the United States and Brazil have been underestimated. Significant potential exists to produce sizeable benefits for both societies. That potential must be maximized. While US and Brazilian governments and businesses have begun to seize the benefits of the synergies the two countries share, hurdles remain that prevent a full and successful commercial reality. The United States and Brazil would benefit from a closer and stronger trade and foreign-direct-investment-relationship that would amplify growth and prosperity, in both the short and long terms. Deepening the economic relationship would pay dividends in other areas as well, translating into greater opportunities for strategic bilateral cooperation. This paper recognizes that the moment is now and that 2020 is a pivotal year to substantively advance bilateral economic ties. Building upon the successes and progress made over the years, this paper incorporates the input and expertise of the US and Brazilian private sectors and policymakers to offer a renewed vision and new momentum for strengthening US-Brazil trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), supporting concrete steps toward deepening the commercial relationship, and laying the foundation for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Brazil. As the global balance of power shifts, as the world faces new hurdles that could slow growth, and as Latin America must contend with more uncertainty amid new external shocks, the two countries strategically and economically have countless reasons to deepen commercial relations. Stronger ties will ultimately provide additional certainty at this critical time.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

7. Regions of Discord: Analyzing Subnational Influences on Chile's Foreign Trade and Investment Policy Towards The USA During Critical Events

Author:: Rodolfo Disi Pavlic
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: What explains variation on Chile’s foreign trade and investment policies toward the United States? While previous studies have underscored international and country-level factors, this work focuses on how subnational economic differences lead to conflicts that shape the country’s policymaking. It examines Chile’s history of commercial policies toward the U.S., focusing on critical events between 1965 and 2005, finding that foreign trade and investment policy conflicts develop along regional lines during democratic periods and on issues where subnational differences in export dependence are stronger.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

8. The (Re)emergence of the BRICS and the Reorganization of Power in Contemporary Geopolitics

Author:: Charles Pennaforte and Ricardo Luigi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The two first decades of the 21 st Century were marked by the recrudescence of two powerhouses, Russia and China. Given their important role on global geopolitics, these two countries took advantage of the gaps resulted from yet another crisis on the structure of global capitalism, which influenced the relative decline of the United States capacity to impose its will on the international system as they had been able to do so since the end of World War II. This article’s objective is to analyze the global geopolitical rearrangement due to a weakened United States which opened the possibility for the BRICS nations to emerge as possible sources of power. To reinforce this analysis, the world-systems perspective, (here on referred to as WSP) elaborated mainly by Immanuel Wallerstein and Giovanni Arrighi is used, as well as a geopolitical approach to provide a link to international relations theories. Therefore, this paper is divided on to four sections. The first one interrelates the geopolitical theories and those of the WSP. The second section is guided towards understanding the origins and fundamentals of the WSP. On the third section, an approach is made towards the motivations and the effects of the rearrangement of power on the world’s geopolitics. Finally, on the last section, the roles and opportunities that have arisen from the emergence of the BRICS nations on the international system are presented.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, and Capitalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

9. The Global Interplay between Trade, Geopolitical and Commodity Shocks

Author:: Idris Ademuyiwa and Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Recent events have the potential to reverse the positive macroeconomic performance of the global economy and trigger a slowdown in both global growth and international trade. In particular, the implications of ongoing trade disputes that have undermined trust in the existing multilateral cooperation system and the incentive for countries to align with ongoing global policy coordination efforts. A compelling case for a mutually beneficial resolution of these tensions can be made by emphasizing the interdependence of the Group of Twenty (G20) economies — the G20 being the premier repository of international cooperation in economic and political matters. This study also considers the state of trade globalization, with an emphasis on the performance of the G20. The emergence of geopolitical risks (GPRs), that is, events that heighten tensions between countries and therefore threaten global economic performance, is an attempt to quantify the potential economic impact of the nexus between politics and economics. In the presence of heightened political risks, negative economic effects become more likely. Nevertheless, there is no empirical evidence investigating the links between the real economy, trade, the state of the financial sector, commodity prices and GPRs. Moreover, there is no evidence on these links that has a sample of countries that make up the G20. This paper begins to fill this gap. Relying on descriptive and statistical evidence, the conclusion is drawn that GPRs represent a significant factor that threatens global economic growth and economic performance, in the G20 countries in particular. Ultimately, however, GPRs reflect other factors, including threats stemming from trade tensions and large swings in commodity prices.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, South America, North America, and Global Focus

10. Emerging Countries in Global Financial Standard Setting: Explaining Relative Resilience and Its Implications

Author:: Andrew Walter
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This special report explores the role of emerging-country members in the Basel process, a key aspect of global financial standard setting. It argues that this process has been significantly more politically resilient than adjacent aspects of global economic governance, in part because major emerging countries have perceived continuing “intra-club” benefits from participation within it. Most important among these are learning benefits for key actors within these countries, including incumbent political leaders. Although some emerging countries perceive growing influence over the international financial standard-setting process, many implicitly accept limited influence in return for learning benefits, which are valuable because of the complexity of contemporary financial systems and the sustained policy challenges it creates for advanced and emerging countries alike. The importance of learning benefits also differentiates the Basel process from other international economic organizations in which agenda control and influence over outcomes are more important for emerging-country governments. This helps to explain the relative resilience of the Basel process in the context of continued influence asymmetries and the wider fragmentation of global economic governance. The report also considers some reforms that could further improve the position of emerging countries in the process and bolster its perceived legitimacy among them.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Global Political Economy, and Emerging States
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, North America, and Global Focus

11. Suriname at a Crossroads

Author:: Scott MacDonald
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Suriname is at a crossroads, politically and economically. Once one of the more isolated countries in the Western Hemisphere, it is increasingly being pulled into the region’s affairs. The process of change is coming from external and internal sources, ranging from the potential for major commercial oil finds in its offshore waters and migration of Chinese, Haitians, and Brazilians into the country to the looming 2020 elections and the need for better governance. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape facing Suriname in both the Caribbean and South America has changed, with the advent of what some analysts are calling a new Cold War between the United States on one side and China, Venezuela, and Russia on the other. Suriname has tremendous potential in terms of its development, but tough decisions sit on the horizon. Most Americans would be hard put to find Suriname on the world map. It was Fairfield University political science professor Ed Dew who noted in the preface of his 1994 book on Surinamese politics, “Not long ago, one of my friends said the problem with my work is that it is on a country that is ‘too far off the screen’ of international importance.” Although Dew wrote two books on Suriname, even he admitted that Suriname has been physically isolated, tucked as it is between French Guiana, Brazil, Guyana and the Atlantic Ocean, and largely covered by forests.1 Suriname has also been a bit of an odd man out from the rest of the Western Hemisphere. It is located in South America but is usually considered to be Caribbean. One of the country’s closest relationships has been with a non-Western Hemisphere nation, the Netherlands, its former colonial power. Last, but hardly least, Suriname is the only country in the Americas whose official language is Dutch.2 While it can be argued that some of these factors may explain a different path from South America or even the Caribbean, it can be argued that Suriname is no longer too far off the screen of international importance.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America and Suriname

12. A Preliminary Assessment of Argentina’s Accession to the OECD

Author:: Michael Matera, Pablo Souto, and Silvina Vatnick
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Formal Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) membership facilitates the design and implementation of public policies, restrains the likelihood of abrupt changes in the rules of the game, lowers the cost of capital, enables harmonization of norms and practices with other countries aimed at fostering trade and investment flows, allows for an active participation in global development forums, and reinforces reputational effects that strengthen businesses’ and consumers’ confidence. However, these benefits can be taken advantage of by countries even before becoming a full OECD member, since the process of accession itself requires that candidate members of the OECD commit to a concrete action plan that serves to promote comprehensive reform of existing laws, regulations, and practices in a wide array of policy areas. Over the last few decades, Argentina’s institutional framework has been weak and ineffective and has failed in improving consistently the well-being of the population. President Macri identified the process of accession to the OECD as one of the key policy priorities of his government in order to begin addressing the country’s institutional weaknesses and to anchor a broad range of important structural reforms that had never been fully undertaken by previous governments. In June 2016, Argentina officially announced its intention to seek formal endorsement of its candidacy for OECD membership and thereby to officially initiate the accession process. In April 2017, Argentina’s minister of the treasury formally announced and presented the Argentina and OECD Action Plan to representatives of the OECD member countries. Since that time, this action plan has been advanced through a large number of policy actions, legal reforms, and analytical work undertaken by Argentine government institutions, both executive and legislative, in close coordination with the OECD Secretariat.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economic Cooperation, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and OECD
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

13. China’s Relationship with Chile: The Struggle for the Future Regime of the Pacific

Author:: Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Though superpower diplomacy dominated coverage of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) leaders summit in November, China’s upgrading of a free-trade agreement with Chile served to highlight the strength of an economic and political relationship that it has built with the country, and the influential position Chile currently occupies in shaping Chinese engagement with Latin America.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South America, and Chile

14. UK Policy Options and the South Atlantic

Author:: Martin Robson
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article utilises International Relations role theory to analyse a number of potential roles for the United Kingdom as an actor with vested interests in the South Atlantic. It assesses the contemporary context of the UK’s trading relationship with the South Atlantic in light of the ongoing dialogue between the EU and the UK with regard to BREXIT. It also recognises the strategic realities of the South Atlantic and the UK’s Overseas Territories in the region. It posits that the UK, as a strategic actor in the South Atlantic, is limited in its role choices and that the role of ‘Opportunistic Partner’ in terms of its relationship with Argentina, offers the most scope as the basis for future mutually beneficial trading relations to normalise further political relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, South America, and South Atlantic

15. Implementing decisions of the WTO Dispute Settlement in Brazil: is there a place for transparency and participation?

Author:: Camila Capucio
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This paper aims to discuss the democracy gap in the implementation process of decisions of the World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement System in Brazil and possible measures to increase its transparency and accountability. Although the selection of the implementation measure is a sensible political choice that impacts a wide spectrum of different interest groups in diverse manners, government shall give publicity and transparency to the selecting process, making possible for interest groups and agents to present their arguments regarding the possible implementation paths and connecting state governance structures to stakeholders, and allowing the collective and legitimate construction of public interest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16. Weathering Collapse: An Assessment of the Financial and Operational Situation of the Venezuelan Oil Industry

Author:: Roberto Hernández Hernández and Francisco J. Monaldi
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Venezuela has one of the most abundant geological endowments in the world. Oil proven reserves are among the largest globally, even if a more conservative criterion than the one used by the current government is applied. However, these resources are qualitatively different than those of other abundant regions such as the Middle East. The large majority constitutes extra-heavy oil, which generally requires higher oil prices to be extracted profitably. During the last decade, the Venezuelan oil industry wasted a unique opportunity to increase investment and production. At the high oil prices that prevailed, the massive oil reserves could have been monetized by rapidly increasing production with a large margin of profitability. Quite to the contrary, production steadily dropped due either to lack of investment in the new unconventional oil projects or for failing to compensate the decline of the older conventional fields. It is a tragic story of great potential with dismal performance. A series of trends were negatively impacting the Venezuelan oil industry even before the oil price collapse in 2014. From the revenue side, although oil prices showed an increase in real terms of 120% between 2000 and 2014, the barrels that effectively generate cash for Venezuela have shown a continuous decline. This is not just because production has been declining for the most part during the last eighteen years (a trend that has gotten significantly worse during the last year), but also because of a number of developments. First, during that period, total exports have declined more rapidly than production, and recently, net exports have declined more than total exports. Consumption in the massively subsidized domestic market increased until 2013 (when it started to decline likely because of the recession in the local economy), while imports of oil products for the domestic market have increased since 2012. The domestic market not only generates negative cash-flow for the national oil company (NOC), PDVSA, but also its expansion reduced the barrels available to export. More recently, there has also been an increase in imports of light oil and naphtha as diluents for the extra-heavy oil. Second, the Venezuelan production basket has become heavier and the share of unconventional production, generally less profitable, has increased. Third, the production wholly operated by PDVSA has been falling much more rapidly, while the production share of joint-ventures increased. Fourth, a significant share of the exports to Latin America and the Caribbean is subsidized (although these exports have declined recently). Fifth, some oil exports are committed to repay debts of PDVSA and specially the Venezuelan government, limiting the actual cash flow received by the company. In particular, the government’s debt agreements with China involve a significant and increasing amount of production, although recently those agreements were restructured, allowing for a grace period with no capital amortization. From the expenditure side, PDVSA was increasingly responsible of carrying social expenditures and activities not related to the oil industry, which limited the resources for highly profitable investments. That is in addition to the increased fiscal take due to changes in the tax legislation. Also, higher investment requirements due to an increase in the equity share of PDVSA in joint venture projects, has had an impact on its cash flow. The explanations for the underperformance of the Venezuelan oil industry basically fall into two connected categories: the multiple problems facing PDVSA; and the increase in above-ground risks for foreign investors operating in the country. The deterioration of the institutional framework, led to radical fiscal and regulatory changes, and to the nationalization of the majority of the industry. In addition, the substantial over-extraction of resources from the NOC, the significant macroeconomic distortions affecting the cost structure of oil companies, and the constraints imposed by the energy infrastructure and human capital availability; have combined to produce dismal results. The massive firing of the majority of the management and technical experts from PDVSA in 2003 following the political conflict that led to a strike, has left the company with limited capabilities to operate effectively. The recent decline in oil prices, and the changes in the international market structure, have exposed more dramatically the difficulties facing the Venezuelan oil sector, and call into question its ability to prevent a continuation of the declining trend in oil extraction. This situation becomes particularly severe if we take into account the cash flow constraints facing PDVSA, as well as its multiple operational problems, power cuts, and conflicts with oilfield services providers. These challenges are proportional to the enormous investments required to finance the projects in the Orinoco Oil Belt, where most of the reserves in Venezuela are located, and where the quality of the crude and the lack of development of the region, are just two of the many issues that need to be addressed. Since this paper is part of a wider project to understand the macroeconomic challenges facing the country in 2016-17, it focuses narrowly on the financial problems of the oil industry in the short-term and the operational challenges that could impede its recovery in the next couple of years. Within this context, it largely analyzes the upstream operations, i.e. oil extraction, rather than the downstream, given that in the former is where the oil rents are generated and constitutes the main source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenues of Venezuela. Other areas for further research are mentioned at the end of the document.2 Official figures are used to the extent that they are publicly available. An important aspect that prevents an exhaustive evaluation of the oil sector in Venezuela is the lack of available information regarding key performance indicators affecting the cost structure of oil projects, the cash flow of PDVSA, and the fiscal contributions of the oil sector to the government, among other important variables. Thus, on occasion, estimations for variables of interest and explanations for their divergence from official figures are provided. The paper has two main sections. The first one analyzes the issues affecting the cash flow of PDVSA, the effects of macroeconomic and fiscal variables on both revenues and costs, as well as other financial issues affecting the performance of the company. The second section discusses some of the operational challenges facing the industry and mentions areas for further research. 2 For a more general overview of the recent developments of the oil sector in Venezuela see Monaldi (2015)
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

17. Framing Sino-Brazilian Energy Cooperation: Perspectives from China

Author:: Cui Shoujun and Otavio Costa Miranda
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: With the booming of Brazil’s off-shore oil drilling, the Sino-Brazilian energy cooperation is facing historical opportunities, manifested in the fields of oil trade, market access, technology transfer and bioenergy exploration. To achieve a steady and robust development in bilateral cooperation, China should take a proactive energy diplomacy approach to overcome challenges arise from its increasing engagement.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Science and Technology, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

18. L’insécurité énergétique en Amérique du Sud : développement des réseaux et intégration sectorielle entre le Pérou et le Chili (Energy Insecurity in South America : Network Development and Sectoral Integration in Chile and Peru)

Author:: Alvaro Artigas
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: The South American continent has experienced a robust economic growth presently overshadowed by an uneven energy integration that fails to meet both an ever-growing industrial and metropolitan demand. Several integration mechanisms co-exist, but a poor integration layout threatens the energy security of the region and individual countries. Several factors contribute to this. Firstly, the very template of regional integration has failed to deliver a valid set of supranational coordination mechanisms aimed at coordinating and sorting out disputes among individual countries. Secondly, national States tie security to self-sufficiency in the face of mutual distrust, thus rendering potential advantages of market and networks integration a less desirable choice. The example of Chile and Peru integration drive reveals many of these dynamics while showing at the same time the windfalls of a transversal sectoral coordination over diplomatic exchange by individual states. What is the potential for an alternative template where the State will play a less intrusive role while consigning territorial disagreements backstage?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Chile, and Peru

19. Amérique latine -- L’année politique 2014

Author:: Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Guillaume Fleury, Andrés Gómez, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, Kevin Parthenay, David Recondo, Eduardo Rios, and Sebastián Urioste
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, History, Elections, Sports, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Central America, Venezuela, North America, Mexico, Guatemala, and Bolivia

20. Uncertain Energy: The Caribbean's Gamble with Venezuela

Author:: David L. Goldwyn and Cory R Gill
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: It has been nearly ten years since the launch of Petrocaribe, a program designed to win the political loyalty of the Caribbean states through generous credit subsidies to help import Venezuelan crude oil and products. Recipient states have grown dependent on high-cost, high-carbon fuels for power generation and Venezuelan credit to balance their budgets.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Caribbean, and Venezuela

21. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy

Author:: Hal Brands
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

22. Towards a Sustainable Cocoa Chain: Power and possibilities within the cocoa and chocolate sector

Author:: Jan Cappelle
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The cocoa tree is an important source of income for millions of farming families in equatorial regions. Cocoa originates in the river valleys of the Amazon and the Orinoco in South America. Its discoverers, the Maya people, gave it the name 'cocoa' (or 'God's food'). Cocoa was introduced to Europe in the fifteenth century. Cocoa imports were heavily taxed, and as a result it was consumed as a drink only by the wealthy. Investment from Great Britain and The Netherlands, combined with the launch of the chocolate bar in 1842 by Cadbury, resulted in a greater demand for chocolate. This led to the gradual expansion of cocoa production, spreading to Africa in 1870.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Britain, Africa, Europe, South America, Netherlands, and Amazon Basin

23. Brazil in the Global Economy: Measuring the Gains From Trade

Author:: Sandra Polaski, Dirk Willenbockel, Eduardo Zepeda, Scott McDonald, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Brazil's economic growth rate has been positive for the past eight years, after two decades of setbacks and extreme volatility. The country has once again been growing—for a sustained period—at rates that exceed its population growth, with average gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita averaging 1.63 percent from 2000 to 2007. This exceeds average per capita GDP growth of 0.83 percent from 1980 to 1989 and 0.28 percent from 1990 to 1999, although it still falls well short of the 5.92 percent per capita growth rate from 1970 to 1979.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

24. Export Productivity, Finance, and Economic Growth: Are the Southern Engines of Growth Different?

Author:: Alessandra Guariglia and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Using a panel of 139 countries over the period 1992-2003, we analyse the links between export productivity, economic growth and financial development indicators. We then investigate whether the links observed in China, India and Brazil systematically differ from those observed in other countries in the sample. We find that both GDP per capita and investment generally exert a positive and significant effect on export productivity. Except for Brazil, financial development is not an important determinant of export productivity. Moreover, except for Brazil, export productivity plays a positive effect on growth, and so does financial development for both China and Brazil, but not for India. Finally, in both India and Brazil, FDI is negatively associated with growth.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, Brazil, and South America

25. Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa

Author:: Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in the China, Brazil, India and South Africa, and in other regional groupings. In doing so, the investigation calculates a time varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The findings indicate that export productivity is mainly determined by real income and human capital endowments. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in the export productivity and specialization patterns of countries with comparable per capita income levels. For instance, China's export productivity and implied export sophistication is in line with that of countries with higher per capita incomes, including some OECD industrial economies.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

26. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:: Benjamin Davis, Calogero Carletto, Angeli Kirk, and Paul Winters
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper uses a duration analysis based on adoption data spanning over 25 years from six communities in the Central Highlands of Guatemala to explore how household characteristics and external trends play into both the adoption and diffusion processes of non-traditional exports among smallholders. Adoption was initially widespread and rapid, which led NTX to be hailed as a pro-poor success, reaching all but the smallest landholders. However, over time more than two-thirds of the adopters eventually dropped out from NTX production. Based on the analysis, NTX production.
Topic:: Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South America, Yugoslavia, and Tunisia

27. The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System

Author:: Silvia Nenci
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
Topic:: International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

28. Remittances: Latin America's Faulty Lifeline

Author:: Catherine Elton
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: In recent years, the money that migrants send back to their native countries has become a hot topic in international development circles. Multilateral banks, the governments of migrant-sending nations, the U.S. Government, and international development organizations laud the potential that remittances have to reduce poverty and promote development. Remittances are being exalted as “the new development finance,” and a ticket to “high human development,” while the migrants who send them are hailed as heroes back home. But the current remittance euphoria is both overblown and troubling when considered in a larger context of international development.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and South America

29. Regional Integration After the Collapse of the FTAA

Author:: Raúl Zibechi
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Although every Latin American government pays lip service to integration, taking the concrete steps needed to attain it is much more difficult than simply issuing declarations. In the wake of the collapse of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), Latin America faces the dilemma of remaining divided and at the mercy of the interests of the great powers, or setting out on the road to continental unity. Even if the forces in favor of integration prevail, the type of integration to be constructed remains to be defined.
Topic:: Government, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

30. Timely Demise for Free Trade Area of the Americas

Author:: Laura Carlsen
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The stage was set for a showdown. When the Bush cabinet announced intentions to revive the moribund Free Trade Area of the Americas at the Fourth Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, the countries of the Southern Common Market closed ranks to prevent it. What followed was a diplomatic melee that reflects not so much divisions within Latin America, as a growing resistance to the current free trade model throughout the developing world.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

31. Economic Survey of Brazil, 2005

Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: This Survey's general assessment is that Brazil is currently reaping the benefits of macroeconomic consolidation, underpinned by a prudent policy stance. Much progress has been made in fiscal consolidation and monetary policy continues to be conducted in a forward- looking manner. The external adjustment has been remarkable, with continued strong export performance, making the economy more resilient to changes in market sentiment. These achievements owe much to the strengthening of institutions, in particular the inflation targeting framework and the Fiscal Responsibility legislation. The economic recovery is now firmly established. But the consolidation of macroeconomic stability remains essential moving forward, coupled with further structural reform, to ensure that the positive outlook ushers in a virtuous circle of improved confidence and resilient, equitable growth.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

32. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

33. Political Finance Regulation in Guatemala: A Comparative Survey

Author:: Kevin Casas-Zamora
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: As in most Latin American countries, the funding of political activities has only recently become a matter of serious concern in Guatemala. Long known for its chronic political instability, the country has limited experience in the observance of basic democratic practices such as regular and reasonably free and fair elections. Even today, the regulation of political finance remains under the shadow of other pressing and as yet unresolved political issues such as the extraordinary weakness of parties, the consistently high abstention rates and the practical disenfranchisement of the indigenous majority.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

34. Senator Kerry on Corporate Tax Reform: Right Diagnosis, Wrong Prescription

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Paul Grieco
Publication Date:: 04-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Senator John Kerry has proposed a major overhaul in corporate taxation, with the goal of persuading multinational companies (MNCs) to employ more workers at home and fewer abroad. Kerry has correctly emphasized that domestic production is often taxed at a higher rate than production abroad, but his prescriptions will not boost US jobs.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

35. This Far and No Further? Nudging Agricultral Reform Forward

Author:: Tim Josling and Dale Hathaway
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As countries attempt to restart the stalled Doha Round and continue the negotiations on further agricultural trade reform and liberalization, it is useful to take stock of the progress made so far in the light of both the objectives of countries and the needs of the trading system. This policy brief reviews the main objectives of the agricultural talks in the World Trade Organization (WTO), examines the major proposals that emerged in the run-up to Cancún and at the ministerial itself, describes the emerging framework for further reform, and suggests ways in which the negotiations can build on this progress to achieve a worthwhile outcome.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South America

36. Brazil: The End of a Honeymoon

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: When Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva was elected president of Brazil in October 2002, popular expectations nearly across the political spectrum were so enormous that he was bound to disappoint someone. Indeed, what is remarkable about the present situation in Brazil is just how popular Lula remains (60 percent approval rating) in spite of a conservative fiscal policy, a modest uptick in the unemployment figures, a willingness to expend valuable political capital on pension and tax reforms, a financial scandal involving his chief of staff, and an embarrassing threat to expel a New York Times journalist.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: New York, Brazil, South America, and Central America

37. ¿Crisis en el Sindicalismo en América Latina?

Author:: Francisco Zapata
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Economic adjustment policies, trade liberalization, privatization of State enterprise and transformation of labor markets and labor market institutions relate to a process of transition between a model of import substitution industrialization and a "new economic model" characterized by the transnationalization of Latin American internal markets. All these elements contribute to change the premises of the organization of unions and to weaken their role in the negotiation of salaries and working conditions, their intervention in the regulation of employment and their participation in the administration of social security and health benefits. On the basis of the cases of Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the presentation will provide a context in which to pose the question of the crisis of Latin American labor and examine some of the alternatives that are available for trade unions in the new economic conditions.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

38. News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements

Author:: Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, and Patrice Robitaille
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

39. Firm-Level Access To International Capital Markets: Evidence From Chilean Equities

Author:: Francis E. Warnock and Sara B. Holland
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: High growth, liquid Chilean firms have greater relative weights in U.S. equity portfolios, but the most important determinant of a firm's portfolio weight is whether it is listed on a U.S. exchange. Cross-listing does not, however, appear to have permanent benefits: Weights in U.S. portfolios of firms that cross-listed in the mid-1990s increased at the expense of firms that cross-listed earlier. Put another way, firms appear to be able to access international capital at the time of the cross-listing, but this access may well be short-lived.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South America

40. A Resurgent MERCOSUR: Confronting Economic Crises and Negotiating Trade Agreements

Author:: Thomas Andrew O'Keefe
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Almost from the day it was launched on March 26, 1991, skeptics have predicted the imminent collapse of the Common Market of the South (Mercado Común del Sur — MERCOSUR), while some economists have fretted about the project's supposed protectionist designs to create a trade fortress. The most memorable example of the latter was a 1996 report written by a World Bank economist that relied on out-of-date trade statistics and attributed to MERCOSUR policies that were actually pre-existing national automotive regimes. More recent tirades have tried to blame Argentina's economic meltdown on its MERCOSUR membership. A well-known economist from a New York City investment bank has even gone as far as to proclaim MERCOSUR dead. Given all the invective directed against efforts to integrate South America's Southern Cone economically over the past decade, it is not surprising that MERCOSUR is misunderstood by many in North America.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

41. US-Brazil Trade Relations in a New Era

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The United States and Brazil are the largest economies in North and South America, respectively. A generation ago, both were relatively closed economies in terms of the proportion of their trade to gross domestic product (GDP), but for sharply different reasons. The US market was highly competitive except for some light manufactures (e.g., textiles, clothing, and footwear) and a few agricultural sectors with high border barriers. By contrast, Brazilian industry was largely uncompetitive and highly subsidized; important commodities like coffee provided the bulk of exports while a large share of the value of most industrial exports was attributable to export subsidies.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Caribbean

42. The Bombardier-Embraer Dispute and its Implications for Western Hemisphere Integration

Author:: Jonathan P. Doh
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

43. The Argentine Implosion

Author:: Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand

44. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas

Author:: William Krist
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
Topic:: Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

45. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?

Author:: Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
Topic:: International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

46. Politics and Parallel Negotiations: Environment and Trade in the Western Hemisphere

Author:: John Audley and Edward Sherwin
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: IN DECEMBER 1994, at the behest of then–U.S. president Bill Clinton, the leaders of the 34 Western Hemisphere democracies convened in Miami for the first comprehensive hemispheric summit in more than 25 years. The assembled heads of state pledged that their countries would forge a path toward regional integration based on four overarching principles: Governments should build strong democratic institutions, prosperity should be promoted through free trade and economic cooperation, poverty and discrimination should be eliminated, and the natural environment should be preserved through policies promoting sustainable development. “Future generations,” Clinton said at the time, “will look back on the Miami summit as a moment when the course of history in the Americas changed for the better.”
Topic:: Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, and North America

47. Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America

Author:: Graciela Moguillansky
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarters in the United Kingdom and Spain, by reviewing literature on business and currency risk management, and by analysing some surveys on financial risk management in developed countries.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, South America, Latin America, and Spain

48. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis

Author:: Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
Topic:: Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

49. Is Brazil Next?

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

50. Toward A Sustainable FTAA: Does Latin America Meet The Necessary Financial Preconditions?

Author:: Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper focuses on identifying preconditions that will ensure the sustainability of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). It argues that the macro, micro, and political conditions advanced in the literature to measure a country's ability to compete internationally, while necessary, are not sufficient to ensure the success and permanence of a free trade agreement. Instead, two additional financial conditions are needed. The first is that each partner in the free trade area needs to have sustainable public debts as determined by the achievement of credible and sustainable structural fiscal balances. The second is that exchange rate regimes across trading partners should be compatible in the sense that adverse shocks in one country do not generate a policy dilemma in other partners between abandoning their exchange rate system or the free trade area.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

51. Protest and Collaboration: Transnational Civil Society Networks and the Politics of Summitry and Free Trade in the Americas

Author:: Patricio Korzeniewicz and William C. Smith
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper examines the politics of hemispheric integration exemplified by the Summits of the Americas held in Miami (1994), Santiago (1998), and Quebec (2001) and the negotiations over the creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Our basic premise is that political and institutional arrangements articulating state, society, and economy in Latin America are currently in the midst of a process of reconfiguration unleashed by the acceleration of globalization and attendant crises of state-centered development strategies. More specifically, we believe the Americas are witnessing the emergence of an ensemble of new social and political actors, among the most salient of which are new social movements and civil society organizations (CSOs), organized in networks operating at the domestic, regional, and global levels.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America, and Miami

52. The Impact of MERCOSUR on the Automobile Industry

Author:: Jerry Haar and Thomas A. O'Keefe
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: A transformation of the automotive industry, particularly the segment involved in production of finished vehicles, has taken place in the Southern Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur/Mercado Comum do Sul—MERCOSUR/MER-COSUL) region of South America, at a time when MERCOSUR member states opened their economies to global competition and to participation in an ambitious subregional economic integration project. This Agenda Paper provides an overview of the factors that have contributed to this recent industry transformation. The paper also examines the factors involved in the formal incorporation of the automotive sector into the MERCOSUR project and discusses the impact this development is like-ly have on the subregional automobile industry,
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Latin America, and North America

53. Preferential Treatment in Trade: Is There Any Room Left in the Americas?

Author:: Fernando Masi
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the costs and benefits of changes brought by the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) on special and differential treatment (S); shows how these changes affected the new regional integration processes in the American continent; and examines whether this issue is still a priority of developing countries' agendas. Large concessions offered by developing countries in exchange for access to markets automatically led to “trade graduation.” Thus, S has lost its former significance among developing countries. Moreover, nonreciprocal treatment was retained for least developed countries, which do not even enjoy this type of treatment under the so-called “new trade-related issues” of services, investment, and intellectual property rights.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

54. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Argentina, South America, and Chile

55. Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy

Author:: Pat Choate and Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Storm clouds signaling trouble with American trade policy have been gathering for some time. In the early 1990s, Congress barely approved creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and only strenuous efforts by the Clinton administration and the business community ensured passage of legislation creating the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the late 1990s, President Clinton twice failed to obtain congressional renewal of his trade-negotiating authority. The massive demonstrations during the meeting of the world's trade ministers in Seattle in 1999 reflected a widespread public unease with the impact of trade policy on a range of issues, from clear-cutting practices in the forests of Indonesia to the price of AIDS drugs in southern Africa. Today, public opinion polls consistently demonstrate that, although the American public supports freer trade in theory, it often has profound reservations about trade liberalization in practice. And the current global economic slowdown may only further polarize public opinion on trade issues.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Indonesia, South America, and North America

56. The 'Labour Question' in Nineteenth Century Brazil: Railways, Export Agriculture and Labour Scarcity

Author:: Lucia Lamounier
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper examines changing patterns of labour relations in nineteenth-century Brazil associated with the building of railways and expansion of export agriculture. It addresses the 1850s-1880s period, decades when the `labour question' became a pressing issue for contemporaries. The extinction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade in 1850 posed the problem of finding alternative supplies of labour at a time of increasing agro-export production. In 1852 effective action to start the building of railways was taken. As part of efforts to improve conditions in the sugar and coffee sectors, several concessions were approved. From the middle of the century through to the 1870s, the expansion of coffee cultivation and railway construction were closely inter-related phenomena in the southern provinces of Brazil and shaped the debate about labour. The 1870s was a key decade. First, these years witnessed a `railway mania' - a great fever of building new lines and branches in various regions of the country, especially in the new coffee districts. Second, concern about the labour question intensified with the approval in 1871 of the Rio Branco Law which provided for the gradual emancipation of slaves. From then until 1888, when slavery was finally abolished, several policies were implemented trying to solve the problem of labour supply and to set new patterns of labour relations. This involved the arrival of thousands of immigrants in the 1880s, imported with government aid, to support the near-continuous expansion of coffee cultivation.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

57. The Politics of Free Trade in the Western Hemisphere

Author:: Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Just as the 1980s now stand out as the decade of the debt crisis in Latin America, the 1990s have become the free trade decade. After a number of failed attempts at trade liberalization during the 1970s, many states in the region now have made dramatic progress in their efforts to reduce tariffs and eliminate quantitative restrictions (QRs) (see Table 1). The strongest evidence of this new openness is reflected in Mexico's 1994 entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, the stated intention at the 1994 Summit of the Americas in Miami to develop a plan for the full expansion of hemispheric free trade, and the ongoing consolidation of such subregional trade pacts as South America's Southern Cone Common Market (MER - COSUR), including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Topic:: Development, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, Brazil, South America, Uruguay, Caribbean, North America, and Paraguay

58. National Laws, NAFTA Panels and Multilateral Provisions: Sovereignty or Supranational Rules at Bay

Author:: Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 03-1995
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Extending a previous investigation of farm dispute settlement under the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989 to include the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1994, this study inquires if regionalism in this part of the world threatens the sovereignty of national trade laws and multilateral provisions. The adjudication process, spelled out by Chapter 19 of the two free trade agreements, is singled out and disaggregated into four stages for analysis. This, in turn, allows for (a) a reassessment of the sovereignty-supranational theoretical debate; and (b) undertaking a comparative study of the national trade relief laws in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Whereas extant works, almost exclusively of disputes under G.A.T.T., find that supranational rules influence outcomes more than the pursuit of sovereign interests by states, the preliminary findings of this study suggest that both forces are equally strong in North America. By and large, they suggest that reciprocal relations between states, regional entities, and multilateral organizations are necessary for the viable operation of each; yet this necessity may, in the long-term, constrain the multilateral organization more than the regional. This interpenetrating relationship is unique, and the source of institutional innovations of relevance to the pursuit of both state sovereignty and supranationalism.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, South America, North America, and Mexico

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS