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2. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment
- Author:
- Tomer Fadlon and Esteban F. Klor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world's countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel's main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inflation, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
3. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations
- Author:
- Morr Link
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
4. U.S. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has already shown how dangerous it is for the U.S. to assume that it can rebalance its forces to one region and count on a lasting peace or detente in others. It now is all too clear that U.S. strategy must continue to focus on Europe as well as China. What is less clear is the extent to which the Ukraine War is an equal warning that the U.S. must have a truly global strategy – and one that continues to focus on other critical regions like the Middle East. The sudden escalation of the Ukraine crisis into a major regional conflict and the need for political and diplomatic support in the UN as well as for sanctions are warnings that much of the U.S. success in deterrence and defense lies in creating long-term global diplomatic and political support as well as true and lasting strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5. Economic crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Marek Dabrowski and Marta Dominguez-Jimenez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the 2010s, the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) deteriorated as a result of lower oil and other commodity prices, a new round of domestic political instability, continuous intra-regional conflicts, stalled economic and governance reforms and, finally, the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth of real GDP, which slowed after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, further decelerated in the second half of the 2010s and became negative in 2020 as result of the COVID-19 shock. Fiscal balances have deteriorated, even in the oil-exporting countries, and public debt has grown rapidly. MENA countries continue to face numerous long-term socio-economic and institutional challenges including high unemployment (especially youth unemployment), low female labour-market participation rates, the poor quality of education, costly and ineffective public sectors, high military and security spending, high energy subsidies and trade protectionism. Only comprehensive long-term reform programmes can address these challenges. The European Union is MENA’s second largest trading partner after the region itself, and is one of two main sources of foreign direct investment and a major aid donor. However, given the critical importance of the MENA region to its own security and stability, the EU’s engagement in conflict resolution and in supporting economic and political transformation of the region is insufficient and should be intensified. The EU should also update and upgrade its existing association agreements with the countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, including their free trade provisions.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Governance, European Union, Trade, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
6. Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation
- Author:
- Sharmine Narwani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- To realize shared priorities and fulfill the Persian Gulf’s potential as a global cornerstone for energy and trade, hardline Gulf states must acquiesce to waning U.S. hegemony and pursue reconciliation with Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
7. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America
8. Implications of the Proposed China-Iran deal for India
- Author:
- Sruthi V.S.
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- The ambitious $400 billion deal between China and Iran has garnered worldwide attention. The 18-page draft proposal says that China will facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion to Iran. This major economic and security partnership between China and Iran has raised India’s concerns against the backdrop of its ongoing border conflict with China. According to the New York Times report, the proposed China-Iran deal talks about expanding China’s presence in Iran’s “banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects”, and in return China will receive a steady supply of oil from Iran for the next 25 years at a discounted price. There are more than 100 projects listed in the draft that will see Chinese investments; these include building Free Trade Zones and several very significant ports. The Chinese will also help Iran build infrastructure for 5G networks and come up with an internet filter like the Great Firewall in China. The stronghold of China in Iran could also result in undermining US policy in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia
9. A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Oil markets are sending confusing signals at a time when more confusion is the last thing anyone needs. When Russia walked out on OPEC+ rather than contribute to more output cuts, Saudi Arabia turned on the crude taps. Whatever Riyadh’s intention, this “price war” was quickly made meaningless by the impact of the new coronavirus on global oil demand. The price collapse has been beyond anything anyone could have imagined. Now, storage room for crude is becoming scarce. Analysts warn darkly that plunging prices may threaten global economic stability. Equities follow the oil price news. Everyone seems to agree that prices should stop falling; and yet no one seems to argue that a very low oil price is exactly what the world’s economy needs to recover. The combination of price war and pandemic is also creating strange bedfellows. Some American shale producers are advocating that their country blocks Saudi oil imports, others want to talk to OPEC. President Donald Trump’s government has expressed an interest in cooperating on global oil supplies with Saudi Arabia and Russia; it’s nudging OPEC+ to reconvene, or an even wider group of producers to meet. Could we be witnessing the emergence of an unholy alliance of Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S., to “manage volatility,” and incidentally shore up the price of oil?
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
10. Enhancing Mediterranean Integration
- Author:
- Blanca Moreno-Dodson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trade liberalization, human capital development, and sectoral reforms can bring Mediterranean countries closer together.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Reform, Human Capital, and Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean
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