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1. How Will the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Change Dynamics of the Conflict?

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş and Omar Özkızılcık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On December 19, 2018, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon has an order to move troops out of Syria as quickly as possible, and began to inform partners in northeastern Syria of their plans to begin an immediate pullback of American forces from the region where they have been trying to wrap up the campaign against the Daesh. Shortly after the Washington Journal report, President Trump wrote on Twitter, “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.” In a statement, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders confirmed, “We have started returning United States troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign.” She pointed out that “[t]hese victories over ISIS in Syria do not signal the end of the Global Coalition or its campaign.” Additionally, U.S. officials told Reuters that all U.S. State Department personnel are being evacuated from Syria within 24 hours and U.S. troops will pull out of Syria in a time frame of between 60 to 100 days. This development came after Turkey’s military decisiveness to clear its border of the terrorist threat, Turkey’s airstrikes against PKK positions on the Sinjar and Karajak Mountains in Iraq, and the phone call between President Erdogan and Trump. The decision by Trump will be a turning point in the Syrian conflict, but how this development will reshape Turkish-American bilateral..
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

2. Toward a Turkish-Russian Axis? Conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, and Cooperation over Nuclear Energy

Author:
Şener Aktürk
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article analyzes Turkish-Russian relations since the end of the Cold War (1992-2014) from a neorealist perspective, while highlighting relevant analogies and major turning points. Georgia (2008), Syria (2011--), and Ukraine (2014--) crises have has been detrimental for the two countries, mutual economic interests with strategic significance, such as the increasing importance of Turkey as a potential reseller of Russian natural gas, have sustained a high level of cooperation between the two countries.
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia, and Syria

3. Perceptions of Syrians in Turkey

Author:
M. Murat Erdoğan
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article is a summary of the study “Syrians in Turkey: Social Acceptance and Integration,” which was conducted by the Hacettepe University Migration and Politics Research Center-HUGO in six cities based on interviews with Syrians and locals and analysis of the media and NGOs. Over 1.8 million Syrians arrived in Turkey and accepted under “temporary protection” status between April 2011 and December 2014. The efforts of the Turkish government and society has spent 5-5,5 billion dollars on the crisis. Turkish society has been overwhelmingly accepting of Syrians. However, concerns and objections are increasing as the permanency of Syrians in Turkey becomes more visible. Therefore, it is essential to develop strategies on permanency with the support of Turkish society.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Syria

4. A New Challenge for Turkey: Civil War in Syria

Author:
Nursin Atesoglu Guney
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Arab Spring gave rise to a variety of transitions in the Middle East. Although initial developments in Tunisia and Egypt created optimism, tragic events in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and elsewhere revived fears about a return to authoritarian governments, failed states and civil war. With no foreseeable change in the UN Security Council with regard to Syria, the country's neighbors, including Turkey, face the risk of instability. Although a recent agreement between the US and Russia marked a major step toward destrying the regime's chemical stockpile, it fails to address the conflict itself. As such, spillover effects continue to threaten Syria's neighbors. This paper highlights the critical nature of the situation and the international community's role in finding a solution.
Topic:
War and Communications
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5. The Emergence of Minorities in the Middle East: The Politics of Community in French Mandate Syria

Author:
Annika Rabo
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Emergence of Minorities in the Middle East. The Politics of Community in French Mandate Syria Ethnic and religious minorities – and concomitant majorities – do not just exist sui generis. They have to be constructed or invented. It is not self-evident who is included in which category and who is excluded. It is only once these categories are accepted and used by people that they appear as natural and even eternal. This basic argument in White's book is not new or startling for readers familiar with today's mainstream research on ethnicity and social classifications. None the less, it is an argument well worth reiterating, not least because of its contemporary relevance for politics in the post-Ottoman empire in general and in Syria in particular. White does this by investigating the actual emergence of concepts such a 'minorities' and 'majority' during the French mandate in Syria.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

6. Introducing the FPC-TR Dataset: Dimensions of AK Party Foreign Policy

Author:
Ni̇met Beri̇ker
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This paper presents the Foreign Policy Circumplex (FPC) coding framework and the (FPC-TR) to identify aspects of Turkish foreign policy behavior between 2002 and 2011. The findings show an increase in cooperative foreign policy behavior and relational third party engagements in the second term of the AK Party administration. Turkey increased its third-party role in the context of crises with Iran and Syria. In relations with Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Israel/Palestinian and Russia/Georgia conflicts, the same role, albeit with a decreasing tendency, continued. There were a number of decreased interactions related to issues, such as EU-Cyprus, Cyprus, Greece, Iraq, and Israel-Palestine. That said, we see an increase in relations with North Africa, the Balkan countries, Syria, the Middle East, Armenia and Israel. There is also greater cooperation in the context of Turkey's high priority bilateral relations, such as with the US, the Middle East, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Russia, as well as with the UN and European Council. With the EU and Israel, however, a reverse trend is observed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria

7. The Wisdom of Syria's Waiting Game Foreign Policy Under the Assads, Bente Scheller

Author:
Jinan Bastaki
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
How has the Syrian regime, being the 'odd man out' in the Middle East, survived for so many years under the Assads? Given its survival, what makes the current uprising, now nearing its third year, different? And did the Assads always act on ideological grounds? These are the central questions that scholar and foreign policy analyst Bente Scheller tries to answer in her book, The Wisdom of Syria's Waiting Game: Foreign Policy Under the Assads, by analyzing the Assads' foreign policy and the link to domestic policies and the current revolt.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

8. Hezbollah and Syria: From Regime Proxy to Regime Savior

Author:
Randa Slim
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Hezbollah's longstanding ties with the House of Assad lie at the core of its domestic and regional policies. Losing Assad would undermine Hezbollah's regional strategic posture and embolden its domestic opponents to challenge its military status. Hezbollah is thus fighting in Syria to protect its status in Lebanon and its regional standing as much as to protect Iranian interests in the region. Public rhetoric from both Iran and Hezbollah leave little doubt about their unwavering commitment to the Assad regime. Will Iran and Hezbollah continue to fight for Assad's political survival irrespective of the consequences for regional stability? While they argue that political dialogue and negotiations are the only way forward in Syria, both Iran and Hezbollah have been circumspect about what a political solution in Syria should entail.
Political Geography:
Iran and Syria

9. Syria: The Hope and Challenges of Mediation

Author:
Mahmood Monshipouri and Erich Wieger
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The civil war in Syria continues to devastate social and political structures, precipitating floods of refugees and surging populations of internally displaced people. Syria has degenerated into sectarian- and ethnic-based warring mini-states vying for power as their country faces utter social disorder. It mass-produces a growing cadre of battle hardened foreign and domestic jihadists affiliated with the various al-Qaeda brands. The war weariness of America and the unmanageable chaos in Syria combine to create shifts in regional politics. This article seeks to put into perspective the crucial role that regional mediation can play in nudging along practical solutions. Without regional commitment and coordination among key Middle Eastern powers, namely Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, international diplomatic efforts to restore order and stability in Syria are not likely to succeed.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
America, Iran, and Syria

10. The "Arab Spring" and the New Geo-Strategic Environment in the Middle East

Author:
Moshe Ma'oz
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Contrary to the evaluation of several political leaders and analysts, the new Islamic governments that have been elected in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in the aftermath of the Arab Spring do not follow the zealous Islamic Iranian model. Rather, they tilt more to the Turkish Islamic democratic system. Significantly, the new Muslim Brothers' regime under president Morsi in Egypt has adopted a balanced realistic policy in domestic, regional and international affairs. While giving Shi'i Iran a cold shoulder, Morsi is inclined to play a leading role in a new regional Sunni-Muslim coalition with Saudi Arabia and Gulf Emirates, and Turkey, the major Sunni Muslim power. Although the would-be Ankara-Cairo new axis will be cautious not to alienate Tehran, it will probably make efforts to contain Iran's attempts to create a Shi'i crescent in the region to control the oil resources in the Gulf. Turkey and Egypt will try to reduce Iran's advances in Iraq and Syria by fostering their Sunni Muslim communities and helping the Syrian Muslims to topple the Alawi regime. Finally the Ankara-Cairo strategic axis, backed by most Sunni-Muslim regimes and in coordination with Obama's new administration, is likely to induce Israel to settle the Palestinian issue.
Political Geography:
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia