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1. The mighty metropolis

Author:
Mathieu Lefevre
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sometime in the middle of 2009, the number of people living in cities exceeded the world's rural population for the first time in history. By 2050, some 70 per cent of the world's population will live on only 3 per cent of the earth's surface – in cities. These conurbations are becoming global economic and geo-political players to be reckoned with. This will radically affect the way we live, work and plan for the future.

2. A chronic protection problem: the DPRK and the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Alex J. Bellamy
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Until recently, the human rights situation in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had elicited relatively little attention from institutions, activists and analysts concerned with the implementation of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and protection of populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. However, on 18 November 2014, the Third Committee of the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution that referred to R2P and called on the UN Security Council to refer the situation in the DPRK to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and adopt targeted sanctions. Although it remains to be seen whether the Security Council will take up this challenge, ten of the Council's 15 members indicated privately their support for the initiative.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Korea

3. Securing China's core interests: the state of the debate in China

Author:
Shaun Breslin, Jinghan Zeng, and Yuefan Xiao
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As China has grown stronger, some observers have identified an assertive turn in Chinese foreign policy. Evidence to support this argument includes the increasingly frequent evocation of China's 'core interests'—a set of interests that represents the non-negotiable bottom lines of Chinese foreign policy. When new concepts, ideas and political agendas are introduced in China, there is seldom a shared understanding of how they should be defined; the process of populating the concept with real meaning often takes place incrementally. This, the article argues, is what has happened with the notion of core interests. While there are some agreed bottom lines, what issues deserve to be defined (and thus protected) as core interests remains somewhat blurred and open to question. By using content analysis to study 108 articles by Chinese scholars, this article analyses Chinese academic discourse of China's core interests. The authors' main finding is that 'core interests' is a vague concept in the Chinese discourse, despite its increasing use by the government to legitimize its diplomatic actions and claims. The article argues that this vagueness not only makes it difficult to predict Chinese diplomatic behaviour on key issues, but also allows external observers a rich source of opinions to select from to help support pre-existing views on the nature of China as a global power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
China

4. Engagement without recognition: the limits of diplomatic interaction with contested states

Author:
James Ker-Lindsay
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article examines the extent to which states are able to interact at an official level with a contested or de facto state—a state that has unilaterally declared independence but is not a member of the United Nations—without being understood to have recognized it. This is an area of increasing interest and relevance to policymakers as the number of contested states has grown in recent years. In many cases, interaction may be important for ongoing peace efforts. However, there are also instances when a state is prevented from recognizing the territory in question for specific domestic or foreign policy reasons and so has to find alternative means by which to cooperate. Drawing on several key examples, notably Kosovo and the 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus', but also with reference to Abkhazia, the article explores the limits of interaction across various different forms of bilateral and multilateral diplomatic activity. As is shown, albeit with some significant provisos, legal theory and historic practice suggest that diplomatic engagement does not constitute recognition if there is no underlying intent to recognize. This means that there is in fact a very high degree of latitude regarding the limits of diplomatic engagement with contested states. This is especially the case in bilateral contexts. Indeed, in some circumstances, the level of engagement can even amount to recognition in all but name.
Topic:
Diplomacy

5. Why wealthy countries must not drop nuclear energy: coal power, climate change and the fate of the global poor

Author:
Reinhard Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Current estimates indicate that several hundred thousand deaths per year can be attributed to climate change. Developed countries have reacted to this growing disaster by increasing the use of renewable energies, but what is to be done with the additional electricity thus generated? Should it be used for cutting back coal-fired energy production or can it be used for substituting nuclear energy? Priority must be given to replacing coal power, since developed countries have a strong duty to minimize the physical harm caused by their electricity generation. Dropping nuclear energy prior to coal power cannot be justified because the risks of nuclear energy pale in comparison to the suffering that emissions from coalfired plants inflict both on their host countries and on poorer countries in the global South that (a) do not benefit from this energy and (b) have far less capacity to cope with the effects of climate change or other environmental damages. This article argues that when faced with a choice between operating coal-fired power plants or nuclear reactors, governments are obliged to opt for nuclear energy.
Topic:
Climate Change and Government

6. Why a British referendum on EU membership will not solve the Europe question

Author:
Andrew Glencross
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article scrutinizes the merits of holding a referendum over UK membership of the EU. It queries the assumption that direct democracy can somehow resolve the longstanding Europe question in British politics. To do this, the analysis traces the existence of an exceptionalist approach to the EU within Britain, now associated with re-negotiating UK membership in the shadow of a referendum. The article argues that the prospects for a radical reconfiguration of the UK's treaty obligations are slim, thereby increasing the risk of a vote to withdraw. Yet withdrawal would be the opposite of a simple solution to the Europe question. Political and economic interests dictate lengthy politicking over a highly complex post-Brexit settlement revisiting free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Such negotiations undermine any mooted cathartic benefits of a popular vote, while Eurosceptics will remain dissatisfied in the event of a yes, a result likely to further destabilize the Conservative Party. Consequently, the simplicity and decisiveness that a referendum—particularly one that spurns the EU—promises is merely a mirage as relations with the EU necessarily form part of an enduring British political conversation.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

7. Scholarship and the ship of state: rethinking the Anglo-American strategic decline analogy

Author:
Katherine C. Epstein
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article uses the centenary of the First World War as an opportunity to re-examine a major element of the existing literature on the war—the strategic implications of supposed British decline—as well as analogies to the contemporary United States based upon that interpretation of history. It argues that the standard declinist interpretation of British strategy rests to a surprising degree upon the work of the naval historian Arthur Marder, and that Marder's archival research and conceptual framework were weaker than is generally realized. It suggests that more recent work appearing since Marder is stronger and renders the declinist strategic interpretation difficult to maintain. It concludes by considering the implications of this new work for analogies between the United States today and First World War-era Britain, and for the use of history in contemporary policy debates.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, and America

8. Global multipolarity, European security and implications for UK grand strategy: back to the future, once again

Author:
David Blagden
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The international system is returning to multipolarity—a situation of multiple Great Powers—drawing the post-Cold War 'unipolar moment' of comprehensive US political, economic and military dominance to an end. The rise of new Great Powers, namely the 'BRICs'—Brazil, Russia, India, and most importantly, China—and the return of multipolarity at the global level in turn carries security implications for western Europe. While peaceful political relations within the European Union have attained a remarkable level of strategic, institutional and normative embeddedness, there are five factors associated with a return of Great Power competition in the wider world that may negatively impact on the western European strategic environment: the resurgence of an increasingly belligerent Russia; the erosion of the US military commitment to Europe; the risk of international military crises with the potential to embroil European states; the elevated incentive for states to acquire nuclear weapons; and the vulnerability of economically vital European sea lines and supply chains. These five factors must, in turn, be reflected in European states' strategic behaviour. In particular, for the United Kingdom—one of western Europe's two principal military powers, and its only insular (offshore) power—the return of Great Power competition at the global level suggests that a return to offshore balancing would be a more appropriate choice than an ongoing commitment to direct military interventions of the kind that have characterized post-2001 British strategy.
Topic:
Security and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Brazil

9. Complex security and strategic latency: the UK Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015

Author:
Paul Cornish and Andrew M. Dorman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Whichever party or parties form the next UK government, a Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) is expected to begin soon after the general election in May. The review might be a 'light touch' exercise—little more than a reaffirmation of the SDSR produced by the coalition government in 2010. It seems more likely, however, that the review will be a lengthier, more deliberate exercise and one which might even last into 2016. For those most closely engaged in the process the challenge is more complex than that confronted by their predecessors in 2010. The international security context is more confused and contradictory; the UK's financial predicament is still grave; security threats and challenges will emerge that cannot be ignored; the population's appetite for foreign military engagement appears nevertheless to be restricted; and prevailing conditions suggest that the risk-based approach to national strategy might be proving difficult to sustain. Two key questions should be asked of the review. First, in the light of recent military experiences, what is the purpose of the United Kingdom's armed forces? Second, will SDSR 2015–16 sustain the risk-based approach to national strategy set out in 2010, and if so how convincingly? Beginning with a review of the background against which SDSR 2015–16 will be prepared, this article examines both enduring and immediate challenges to the national strategic process in the United Kingdom and concludes by arguing for strategic latency as a conceptual device which can complement, if not reinvigorate, the risk-based approach to national strategy and defence.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

10. From terrorism to 'radicalization' to 'extremism': counterterrorism imperative or loss of focus?

Author:
Anthony Richards
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article argues that there has been an increasing convergence of the discourses of terrorism, radicalization and, more lately, extremism in the UK and that this has caused counterterrorism to lose its focus. This is particularly evident in the counterterrorism emphasis on non-violent but extremist ideology that is said to be 'conducive' to terrorism. Yet, terrorism is ineluctably about violence or the threat of violence; hence, if a non-violent ideology is in and of itself culpable for terrorism in some way then it ceases to be non-violent. The article argues that there should be a clearer distinction made between (non-violent) extremism of thought and extremism of method because it is surely violence and the threat of violence (integral to terrorism) that should be the focus of counterterrorism. The concern is that counterterrorism has gone beyond its remit of countering terrorism and has ventured into the broader realm of tackling ideological threats to the state.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

11. Review article: Troublemakers: Laura Poitras and the problem of dissent

Author:
Alex Danchev
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This review article considers three works by the distinguished documentary filmmaker Laura Poitras: My country, my country (2006); The oath (2010); and the recently released Citizenfour (2014), focusing on the whistle-blower Edward Snowden. Poitras describes these works as a trilogy about American power after 9/11, but they are also about disobedience and resistance, or the problem of dissent. The article argues for the significance (and the virtue) of Poitras's project, as film maker and troublemaker, and for the necessity of what Solzhenitsyn calls civil valour. You can listen to Alex Danchev discussing his review article in IA's March podcast here http://cht.hm/1N5JeoK
Political Geography:
America

12. Review article: The 100 billion dollar brain: central intelligence machinery in the UK and the US

Author:
Richard J. Aldrich
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The 'Five Eyes' alliance, led by the United States, spends close to 100 billion dollars a year on intelligence. This review article argues that western countries are distinguished by their sophisticated approach to the making of intelligence-led national security policy. Political leaders and policy-makers who access this sensitive material are often involved in elaborate systems that constitute part of the core executive and which seek to task and improve the intelligence leviathan. Western intelligence therefore has a 'central brain' that devotes considerable energy to both analysis and management. By contrast, in the majority of other states around the world, the orientation of intelligence has often been inward facing, with a high priority given to regime security. Some would suggest that intelligence has been an important component of western power projection, while others would argue that this process has been over-expensive and has under-delivered, not least in the last decade. Either way, the debates about development of the central intelligence machinery that supports western security policies are of the first importance and fortunately this discussion has been advanced by the appearance of several valuable new studies: these are discussed in this review article.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

13. Capitalism and the emergent world order

Author:
Barry Buzan and George Lawson
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
There is general agreement that the world is changing, but considerable disagreement about how it is changing. Commentators variously locate this change in a 'power shift' from West to East, a trade in superpower status between the United States and China, or a transition from an era of bipolarity to one of unipolarity, multipolarity or even non-polarity. These analyses are linked by attention to a smorgasbord of dynamics that are said to be disrupting the smooth functioning of international order: globalization, US militarism, dynamics of revolution and counter-revolution, finance capital, climate change, the rise of non-state actors, new security threats, the dislocating effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs), and more.
Topic:
Communications and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States and China

14. A century on the edge: from Cold War to hot world, 1945-2045

Author:
Paul Rogers
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Contributions to anniversaries may take a broad view, sometimes even a centuries-long perspective. Most commonly, such perspectives are framed within traditional boundaries—nineteenth, twentieth or twenty-first century, for example—but this article argues that one period not normally viewed in this way, from 1945 to 2045, may have a particular significance, giving a perspective that is of value in analysing current trends in international security.

15. International Affairs and 'the nuclear age', 1946-2013

Author:
William Walker
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
International Affairs' first article on matters relating to nuclear technology was published in July 1946, within a year of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The most recent article, at the time of writing, appeared in July 2013. Over nearly 70 years, the journal has published, by my count, 128 articles focused on nuclear affairs plus numerous articles on international strategy, energy policy and other subjects in which nuclear technology plays a significant part. Many books on nuclear topics have also been discussed in the journal's review section. Only Foreign Affairs among major international journals can boast of such a long engagement with nuclear politics.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Hiroshima and Nagasaki

16. Old world, new world: the evolution and influence of foreign affairs think-tanks

Author:
Donald E. Abelson
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Before the ink on the Treaty of Versailles was dry, the idea of creating an organization dedicated to educating, informing and advising future leaders about the causes and consequences of war was already gaining traction. At 'a series of unofficial meetings held in Paris in 1919',1 Lionel Curtis, an Oxford professor and visionary with a reputation for possessing an impressive array of entrepreneurial skills, was spearheading efforts to establish an Anglo-American research institution where scholars could explore international problems and advocate policy solutions.2 This kind of organization appealed to Curtis and to those with whom he discussed it for several reasons, not the least of which was that it could provide a valuable forum for both policy-makers and prominent policy experts in the leading western powers to talk to one another about international affairs. It was also a concept with which several of the delegates attending the Paris peace talks had some familiarity. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries a number of institutions had already taken root in Great Britain and in the United States with the aim of helping policy-makers navigate their way through complex policy problems. They included the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (1831), founded by the first Duke of Wellington; London's Fabian Society (1884), home to a number of prominent scholars, including Sidney and Beatrice Webb, co-founders of the London School of Economics; the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1910), established by the Scottish-American steel tycoon Andrew Carnegie; and the Institute for Government Research (1916), which merged with two other institutions to form the Brookings Institution in 1927.3 Curtis and his colleagues in Great Britain and the United States were also aware of the ground-breaking research that had been conducted at hundreds of settlement houses in their respective countries. It was at places such as London's Toynbee Hall (1884) and Chicago's Hull House, co-founded by Jane Addams in 1889, that sociologists and other university faculty with expertise in social welfare policy could study the working conditions of the poor.4 In short, proponents of establishing a foreign affairs research institution recognized the importance of encouraging a dialogue between leading social scientists and high-level policy-makers.
Topic:
Government and International Organization
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, America, Washington, Paris, London, and Wellington

17. Horror, hubris and humanity: the international engagement with Africa, 1914-2014

Author:
Richard Reid
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article was commissioned as a contribution to the 90th anniversary issue of International Affairs , and it seems appropriate to note at the outset the prominent place that Africa has occupied in the pages of the journal since the 1920s. Indeed, a list of authors who have written for it reads as a roll-call of modern African history, in terms of both protagonists and analysts, and I doubt whether any specialist Africanist journal can boast a comparable line-up. A handful of examples may suffice. From the era of European colonial rule, Frederick, Lord Lugard, wrote in 1927 on the putative challenges confronting colonial administrators of 'equatorial' Africa, and Lord Hailey, in 1947, on the issues involved in 'native administration' more broadly; notably, the African perspective on these questions was provided in a piece in 1951 by the eminent Tswana political figure of the early and middle twentieth century, Tshekedi Khama. Former colonial governor Sir Andrew Cohen assessed the place of the new African nations within the UN in a 1960 article. A later generation of African nationalist leaders, the founders and shapers of the continent in its first flush of independence, is also represented: of particular note are pieces on the prospects for the continent by the Tunisian leader Habib Bourguiba and by the Senegalese poet and politician Leopold Senghor, in 1961 and 1962 respectively. And then there are the analysts and commentators, some of whom have become the stuff of legend for the author's own generation: Lucy Mair, Ali Mazrui and Colin Legum, to name but three.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

18. The idea of order in ancient Chinese political thought: a Wightian exploration

Author:
Yongjin Zhang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
All great thinkers, while historically conditioned, are all philosophically contemporaneous. It is a great privilege to have this extended version of my Martin Wight Memorial Lecture published in International Affairs—all the more so in this 90th anniversary issue of the journal. International Relations theory and English School thinking have been well represented in International Affairs: since Sir Herbert Butterfield delivered the inaugural Martin Wight Memorial Lecture 38 years ago in 1975, 21 Martin Wight lectures have appeared in these pages. I am delighted, therefore, to be continuing that tradition and very much hope that this trend will endure for many years to come.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
China and Ecuador

19. Review article - Leaving Vietnam: Nixon, Kissinger and Ford, 1969-1975 (Part two: January 1972-January 1973)

Author:
Geoffrey Warner
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
On 20 January 1972 an alarming message reached Washington from General Creighton Abrams, the US commander in Vietnam. He stated that 'the enemy is preparing and positioning his forces for a major offensive. There is no doubt that this is to be a major campaign . We foresee a hard battle involving sophisticated weaponry and as much ground combat power as the enemy can generate.' He therefore asked for a number of 'standby authorities' for military actions, notably air power. This was just the latest of a series of warnings from Abrams, but it was deemed important enough to be forwarded to the White House, where President Nixon's National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, raised the matter with his boss later the same day. It was agreed that any decision upon future action should be postponed until after the President's televised speech to the nation on Vietnam on 25 January (vol. VIII, no. 2).
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Vietnam

20. Skyjackers, jackals and soldiers: British planning for international terrorist incidents during the 1970s

Author:
Geraint Hughes
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
On 5 January 1974 a column of 150 British Army troops, supported by armoured vehicles, arrived at Heathrow airport in full battle order, and over the course of the following two weeks they patrolled its runways and the perimeter. These soldiers had been ordered in by Edward Heath's government in response to intelligence reports that the Palestinian fedayeen intended to use a portable anti-aircraft missile to shoot down a passenger jet, and the British authorities had already devised contingency plans (codenamed Operation Marmion) to deploy the army in order to deter a terrorist attack at the airport. Marmion was implemented on three further occasions in 1974—in June, July and September—and in each case the troop presence at Heathrow attracted considerable parliamentary and press comment. Some critics argued that in each case the British government was over- reacting to the threat at hand, and that the military patrols at Heathrow were essentially intended as a public relations exercise. However, Operation Marmion also had an effect which ministers and civil servants had not intended, as it fed contemporary fears that the British Army and right-wing extremists within the establishment and security services were preparing for a coup.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Britain and Palestine

21. Strategic taboos: chemical weapons and US foreign policy

Author:
Michelle Bentley
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article examines US President Barack Obama's foreign policy rhetoric on Syria, specifically in relation to the threat of chemical weapons and the prohibitionary taboo surrounding their use. It contends that Obama's rhetorical construction of the taboo is not simply a commitment to the control of these horrific weapons (where such arms have been comprehended as so extensively vile as to preclude their employment), but that this also represents the strategic linguistic exploitation of these normative ideals in order to directly shape policy. By analysing of presidential speeches made during the conflict, it demonstrates that Obama has manipulated pre-existing conceptions of chemical weapons as taboo, and also as forms of weapons of mass destruction, to deliberately construct policy in line with his own political ambitions—most notably as a way of forcing a multilateral solution to the situation in Syria. This article challenges existing perceptions of the chemical weapons taboo as an inherently normative constraint, arguing that this instead comprises a more agency-driven construct. Static notions of the taboo must be abandoned and subsequently replaced with a framework of understanding that recognizes how the taboo can be used as a deliberate driver of foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Syria

22. Reconciliation and research in Afghanistan: an analytical narrative

Author:
Thomas Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article examines the evolution of western policy towards the idea of pursuing negotiations with the Taliban, or 'reconciliation', in Afghanistan and the role that research and expert opinion played in that process. The official western position has evolved iteratively from initial rejection to near complete embrace of exploring the potential for talks. It is widely assumed that the deteriorating security situation was the sole determinant of this major policy reversal, persuading decisionmakers to rethink what had once been deemed unthinkable. Moreover, given the politicized and sensitive nature of the subject, we might expect the potential for outside opinion to influence decision-makers to be low. Nevertheless, this article demonstrates that it would be a mistake to underestimate the role that research and expert knowledge played-the story is more nuanced and complex. Research coalesced, sometimes prominently, with other key drivers to spur and shape policy change. Importantly, it often took experts to make sense of events on the ground, especially where the failure of the military approach was not recognized, understood or palatable to those in official circles. Research interacted with changing events, policy windows, the emergence of new personalities and the actions of various intermediaries to shape emerging positions. More broadly, the case of reconciliation in Afghanistan reveals the difficulties and challenges, but also the variety of opportunities and techniques, for achieving research influence in conflict-affected environments.
Topic:
Security and Environment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

23. The Piketty phenomenon: why has 'Capital' become a publishing sensation?

Author:
Robert H. Wade
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Why has Piketty's Capital become a publishing sensation? Not for revolutionary findings; its message that western societies have experienced increases in inequality of income and wealth over the long term is hardly new. Of the several reasons discussed in this article, attention is paid in particular to the book's timing and its claim to reveal the laws of income and wealth distribution in western societies. Had the book been published before 2008 it would have been much less successful. Piketty's revelation of the big trends and their underlying logic helps to objectify, legitimize and offer a kind of catharsis for surging middle-class anxieties during the Great Recession. These anxieties have been further intensified by evidence that over 90 per cent of the increase in disposable income in the United States has accrued to the top 1 per cent of the population in the past several years, and a not much lower percentage to the top 1 per cent in Britain. In the conclusion it is argued that if Piketty's forecasts are even remotely accurate, capitalism will lose its core claim to legitimacy.
Political Geography:
United States

24. 'Doing some things' in the Xi Jinping era: the United Nations as China's venue of choice

Author:
Rosemary Foot
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
A more powerful China under the seemingly confident leadership of President Xi Jinping has committed to a more activist global policy. In particular, this commitment has influenced Beijing's policy towards UN peacekeeping operations, with a long-awaited decision to add combat forces to the engineering troops and police and medical units that have been features of its past contribution. In addition, Beijing has doubled the size of its contribution to the UN peace operations budget. This article explains why the UN is a key venue for China to demonstrate its 'responsible Great Power' status and expressed willingness to provide global public goods. The main explanatory factors relate to the UN's institutional design, which accords special status to China even as it represents a global order that promotes the sovereign equality of states. Moreover, there are complementarities between dominant Chinese beliefs and interests, and those contained within the UN system. Especially important in this latter regard are the links that China has tried to establish between peacebuilding and development assistance with the aim of strengthening the capacity of states. China projects development support as a contribution both to humanitarian need and to the harmonization of conflict-ridden societies. The Chinese leadership has also spoken of its willingness to contribute to peacemaking through stepping up its efforts at mediation. However, such a move will require much deeper commitment than China has demonstrated in the past and runs the risk of taking China into controversial areas of policy it has hitherto worked to avoid.
Topic:
Development and United Nations
Political Geography:
China and Beijing

25. The inconsequential gains and lasting insecurities of India's nuclear weaponization

Author:
Ramesh Thakur
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
India's nuclear breakout in 1998, foreshadowed as early as 1974, may have been understandable for reasons of global nuclear politics, a triangular regional equation between China, India and Pakistan, and domestic politics. Yet the utility of India's nuclear weapons remains questionable on many grounds. Nuclear deterrence is dubious in general and especially dubious in the subcontinent. Nuclear weapons are not usable as weapons of compellence or defence. They failed to stop the Pakistani incursion in Kargil in 1999 or the terrorist attack on Mumbai in 2008. They will not help India to shape the military calculations of likely enemies. And India's global status and profile will be determined far more crucially by its economic performance than nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, they do impose direct and opportunity costs economically, risk corrosion of democratic accountability, add to global concerns about nuclear terrorism, and have not helped the cause of global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Because the consequences of a limited regional war involving India could be catastrophic for the world, others have both the right and a responsibility to engage with the issue. For all these reasons, a denuclearized world that includes the destruction of India's nuclear stockpile would favourably affect the balance of India's security and other interests, national and international interests, and material interests and value goals.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and India

26. Nuclear fears, hopes and realities in Pakistan

Author:
Zia Mian
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the four decades since Pakistan launched its nuclear weapons program, and especially in the fifteen years since the nuclear tests of 1998, a way of thinking and a related set of feelings about the bomb have taken hold among policy-makers and the public in Pakistan. These include the ideas that the bomb can ensure Pakistan's security; resolve the long-standing dispute with India over Kashmir in Pakistan's favour; help create a new national spirit; establish Pakistan as a leader among Islamic countries; and usher in a new stage in Pakistan's economic development. None of these hopes has come to pass, and in many ways Pakistan is much worse off than before it went nuclear. Yet the feelings about the bomb remain strong and it is these feelings that will have to be examined critically and be set aside if Pakistan is to move towards nuclear restraint and nuclear disarmament. This will require a measure of stability in a country beset by multiple insurgencies, the emergence of a peace movement able to launch a national debate on foreign policy and nuclear weapons, and greater international concern regarding the outcomes of nuclear arms racing in South Asia.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Atlantic Ocean

27. Are you willing to be made nothing? Is Commonwealth reform possible?

Author:
Timothy M. Shaw and Francis Baert
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
A new round of Commonwealth reform proposals commenced at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting of 2009. An ensuing report, titled A Commonwealth of the people: time for urgent reform, contained a long list of proposals that eventually resulted in 2013 in the adoption of the Commonwealth Charter. Many classic international organizations are in need of reform, but this is, of course, challenging. This new Commonwealth reform process will not lead to satisfying changes and will not make it a more relevant actor in global governance. The year 2015 marks the Commonwealth Secretariat's first half-century. We take this symbolic marker to push for a forward-looking exercise, arguing that because the true nature of the Commonwealth is often misunderstood, a better understanding of the organization is essential before embarking on any successful change-management project. In the article we identify four different kinds of Commonwealth: three of a 'formal' nature (the official, bureaucratic and the people's Commonwealth) and a fourth 'informal' one (Commonwealth Plus). By describing the potential of these four different kinds of Commonwealth, we can anticipate better the challenges with which the Commonwealth network is faced, both internal (including its mandate, its British imperial past and dominance, the organization's leadership and its membership) and external (other international organizations, other Commonwealths, rivalry with regional organizations and the rise of global policy networks). Consequently, this should lead to a better and more sustainable debate about the Commonwealth's future role in global governance.
Topic:
Government and Governance

28. The future of US–Brazil relations: confrontation, cooperation or detachment?

Author:
Peter Hakim
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
US-Brazilian relations sunk to one of their lowest points ever following last year's exposure of the US government's massive surveillance of the South American giant-including the correspondence of President Rousseff and the business operations of Brazil's national oil company, Petrobras. Brazilian authorities responded angrily. The Brazilian president called off a highly valued state visit to Washington, denounced the US for violations of sovereignty and human rights, and proceeded to bypass the US to purchase nearly $5 billion worth of fighter aircraft from Sweden. In fact, US-Brazil ties have not been constructive for more than a generation. Yes, relations are mostly amiable, but with limited cooperation, considerable discord and some open clashes. Washington views Brazil primarily as a regional actor, and wants its cooperation mainly on inter-American issues. For Brazil, regional collaboration means working with other Latin American nations-not the United States. Brazil usually wants the US to keep a distance from the region. The US is no more enthusiastic about Brazil assuming a global role; differences over some of the world's most dangerous political and security challenges have made Washington uneasy about Brazil's engagement in international affairs and critical of its foreign policy judgements. Relations will probably improve, but they could get worse. The two governments need to acknowledge that their relationship is fragile and troubled, and take steps both to rebuild trust and to avert further deterioration and new confrontations. They have to be more careful with each other.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
America, Washington, and Brazil

29. Review article—Thoughtlessness: Rumsfeld in Washington

Author:
Alex Danchev
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This review article considers the case of Donald Rumsfeld and his disastrous tenure as US Secretary of Defense (2001-2006), as recounted by Rumsfeld himself in his memoirs and other writings, and in interviews with the celebrated documentary filmmaker Errol Morris, for The unknown known (2014). In all of these works he appears completely unreconstructed; indeed, remarkably self-satisfied. The article reflects on Rumsfeld as operator and courtier, and Morris's pursuit of a man without qualities, with reference to Hannah Arendt's notion of 'the banality of evil'.
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

30. Review article—Leaving Vietnam: Nixon, Kissinger and Ford, 1969–1975. Part three: January 1973–July 1975

Author:
Geoffrey Warner
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The final volume of the Foreign relations series of documents on Indochina during the Nixon and Ford presidencies is not as detailed as those which preceded it. However, the documents do not support the view that, once the January 1973 Agreement between the Democratic Republic of (North) Vietnam and the United States had been concluded, the US was prepared to accept DRV's hegemony over the rest of Indochina, provided only that there was a 'decent interval' before it occurred. In fact, both the Nixon and Ford administrations did seek to prevent this from happening, but found their hands tied by congressional opposition. In the case of Cambodia, the United States also found itself the victim of its own illusions about the willingness of the People's Republic of China to support an alternative government led by the former ruler, Prince Norodom Sihanouk. Following the more or less total collapse of American policy in April 1975, some interesting 'post-mortems' from various government departments on the history of US involvement in Indochina are also printed in the volume under review.
Topic:
Government and History
Political Geography:
United States, China, Vietnam, and Cambodia

31. A Result That Resolves Little

Author:
Malcolm Chalmers
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Britain's 2010 National Security Strategy, published shortly after the coalition government took office, was entitled 'A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty'. It made no mention of the two existential challenges—the possible secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom, and the risk of a British withdrawal from the European Union. Yet either event would be a fundamental transformation in the very nature of the British state, with profound impact on its foreign and security policy.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

32. Now deliver, say the Scots

Author:
Colin Fleming
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Scotland's referendum saw Scots vote to remain part of the United Kingdom with 55 per cent of voters rejecting independence. However, a narrowing of the polls in the weeks leading up to the vote resulted in promises of significantly more powers for Scotland if it decided to stay part of the Union. With one You Gov poll suggesting a narrow win for the Yes movement–51 per cent to 49 per cent–Britain's three Unionist party leaders promised more powers with a timetable for action to be implemented the day after a No vote. These promises may be hard to keep. Only a few days on, it would appear that agreement on the timetable for change is lacking.
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Turkey, and Scotland

33. Past the point of no return for Catalonia

Author:
Josep Maria Reniu
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Friday September 19 was a rare day in Catalonia. A significant proportion of Catalans had hoped for a victory of the Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum. The result was not as expected, but the day still gave us good news. The Catalan parliament passed a law on consultations and citizen participation that has allowed the president of the Catalan government to call citizens to the polls on November 9 to vote on independence. This vote in parliament took place against a background of impasse between Catalonia and the Spanish government in Madrid, with potentially destabilizing effects.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Spain and Scotland

34. In the care of Nurse Ann Droid

Author:
Noel Sharkey and Amanda Sharkey
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Would you like to be left exclusively in the care of robots in your old age? Robots have been working in our factories, painting cars, assembling tiny components and mixing dangerous chemicals for decades. In the new era, service robots have begun working alongside humans in cleaning, medicine, farming and policing. Now robots are being given the intimate jobs of care and companionship for our elderly. Should we welcome such developments? Could a robot empathize and care for us in the way that a human could? Can we trust robots and robot manufacturers with such important and life–defining roles?
Political Geography:
Japan

35. Life is about to get a lot smarter

Author:
Robert Plant
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When people think of robots, the image that comes to mind is of machines—sometimes in humanoid form—doing manual labour, and sometimes even behaving in something like a human way. The real changes in the world of work, though, are due to something less visible and more pervasive—the rise of connectivity. Connectivity is the ability to link data and things, which in this case means machines and processes—and people too.

36. Interview: Yves Daccord

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the Middle East today there are armed groups that have no respect for the humanitarian imperative. What challenges does this present to the Red Cross? I see two key challenges. The first one is very basic. We want to maintain a very close relationship with people affected by conflict, and access these days is more complex because we are in a very polarized environment. Look at the Iraq front–the problem is not new but it is exacerbated. The second issue is to be able to engage governments and non-state armed groups on a very pragmatic basis on issues related to people under their control. That normally works rather well. What I have found more complex these days is to engage them on issues related to international humanitarian law and the Geneva conventions.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid and Islam
Political Geography:
Geneva, Iraq, and Middle East

37. It's all change in your pocket

Author:
Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The 1970s were years of high inflation in Italy. As the price of goods increased and the lira, a high denomination currency, was debased, the country faced a chronic lack of small change. Those were the years when coins were used to operate all sorts of devices, from pay phones to launderettes, vending machines and jukeboxes.
Political Geography:
Italy

38. As sanctions bite, could Russia isolate itself by switching off the net?

Author:
Keir Giles
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As recently as November 2012, I was able to write in The World Today that although 'the Russian authorities already possess extremely strong legislative tools for controlling internet content, they ordinarily apply these with a very light touch'.
Political Geography:
Russia

39. Review: Neil MacGregor's German lesson

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
From the window in Neil MacGregor's office you can see the swirling crowds of visitors in the courtyard of the British Museum. Seven million people a year squeeze through the Museum's narrow door–almost double the number in 2000.
Political Geography:
Britain and Germany

40. Four lessons the EU should learn about energy security

Author:
Ana Stanic
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Diversification of gas supply has been a strategic priority for the European Union since its dependence on imports began to grow in the early 2000s. The crisis in Ukraine has heightened concerns that the flow of Russian gas passing through this country may be interrupted and has reignited calls for dependency on Russian gas to be reduced. As a new European Commission takes over energy policy in Brussels, it is worth examining the lessons the EU ought to learn from the Southern Gas Corridor project, which for a decade was seen as key to enhancing energy security.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Brazil

41. Ten minutes with Andrei Kurkov, Ukrainian author

Author:
Andrei Kurkov
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
What would you like to see happen to your country? The Ukraine that existed before the events of last year was very peaceful, very tolerant, very quiet–maybe a bit too tolerant to hopeless and corrupt politicians. But now, we have a society that has been radicalized, and in the next parliamentary elections, we will have a lot of new radicals in the parliament. This is partially good because they will fight against corruption, and they will put pressure on the government and the president to carry on the reforms that were promised.
Topic:
Corruption and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Denmark

42. Can the quiet ayatollah of peace save Iraq from collapse?

Author:
Hayder al-Khoei
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in April 2003, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani emerged as one of the most powerful men in Iraq. Sistani was already known to Shia Muslims worldwide as the somewhat reticent leader of the religious establishment in Najaf. The fall of the Ba'ath regime thrust him on to the national and international stage.
Political Geography:
Iraq

43. Iraq's religious mix is at risk

Author:
Gerard Russell
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Iraq is being denuded of its ancient communities, and both it and the world are the poorer for it. As the jihadists of Islamic State try to entrench their rule, it is an open question whether Iraq's religious minorities will survive, and if so, how they can be protected. There is another, deeper question, however. How did Iraq come to have so much religious diversity in the first place, and what does this this say about the type of Islam that prevailed there until the 21st century?
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq

44. Africa's choice of partners

Author:
Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Summits with Africa are in fashion: in August, President Obama hosted America's first; in April, the European Union staged the fourth EU-Africa summit in Brussels; the BRICS countries–Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–held one in Durban in March last year; and in June 2013 Japan hosted its five-yearly conference on African development in Yokohama. Next year will see the sixth China-Africa summit. South America, South Korea and Turkey, which have all held summits with African leaders in recent years, have pledged return matches in Africa.
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Europe

45. The blue helmet blues

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Imagine a dystopian future in which NATO, struggling against Islamist terrorism, has to deploy troops on a constant basis across Africa and the Middle East. Then all of a sudden it is struck by a series of calamities: more than 40 personnel are taken hostage in the Middle East, soldiers start dying on a weekly basis on the edge of the Sahara and an operation to handle an outbreak of ebola begins to spiral out of control. NATO, you might expect, would give up in exhaustion. After Afghanistan, western powers have little appetite for quagmires.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, and Middle East

46. YouGov poll: EU comeback

Author:
Thomas Raines
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
British attitudes to the European Union have become generally more favourable over the past two years, according to a YouGov poll for Chatham House. Those who say they would vote to stay in the EU now have the narrowest of leads–40 per cent to 39 per cent. Two years ago, 49 per cent said they would vote to leave, against 30 per cent to stay.
Political Geography:
Europe

47. Postcard from Södertälje, Sweden

Author:
Mikael Oez
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
If you want to hear the language spoken by Christ, all you need to do is to take a short bus ride from Stockholm to the town of Södertälje. There you will find thousands of Syriac Christians speaking Aramaic as it was spoken in the time of Jesus.
Political Geography:
Iraq and Turkey

48. Expert view: Afghanistan

Author:
Michael Keating
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This has been a roller-coaster year for Afghans. It has included vigorous presidential and provincial election campaigns, a protracted political crisis, the formation of a government of national unity, the inauguration of a president with big new ideas, a financial crunch, devastating natural disasters, widening Taliban attacks and a surge in the number of Afghans being killed. Meanwhile, the US-led International Security Assistance Force is winding down and will conclude in December.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

49. Review: Bauhaus and a spirit of subtle resistance

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Two items from the exhibition tell revealing stories about life in Germany in the 20th Century. Both have a link to the Weimar School of Architecture and Design, called the Bauhaus, which pioneered modern design in the 1920s. Because of its socialist and internationalist outlook, the Nazis set out to destroy it.
Political Geography:
Germany

50. Date with history: The bullet train at 50

Author:
Christian Wolmar
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The opening of the first high-speed line, the Japanese Shinkansen, ushered in a new era of rail travel but it has taken a surprisingly long time for the concept to spread. Indeed, 50 years later, there are still barely a dozen countries that boast trains that can be described as high-speed. And while there are lots of schemes in the offing, the huge cost and long lead times are proving a barrier for their rapid spread.
Political Geography:
Japan