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1. The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector?

Author:
Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. This report reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Tokyo

2. New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders

Author:
Paola Subacchi, Robin Niblett, and Alexei Monsarrat
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
What started last year as a growing international credit crunch and, by September, a global banking crisis has now spread into the real economy. International trade, investment and economic growth are all contracting. A drastic curtailment of credit, collapsing global demand and a loss of trade finance is having a devastating economic effect on both the developed and developing worlds, especially those economies that are heavily dependent on exports.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and London

3. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

4. Thinking About the Future of Food: The Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK: 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change? 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops? Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Population
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

5. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

6. Prospects for an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Area: The World's First Region-to-Region FTA?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The EU and the GCC have seemed close to an agreement on a region-to-region Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – possibly the first in the world between customs unions – for the last two years. The EU seems keener on an agreement than the GCC. An FTA is an element in the EU's Global Europe trade policy strategy and is explicitly linked to energy security concerns. The EU is the GCC's main supplier of goods and services, and since the completion of the GCC Customs Union tariffs are low and the economic effects of an FTA are likely to be small, on goods at least. There may be economic barriers to the final signing of an FTA on both sides: resistance by GCC states to services and investment liberalization; and resistance in the EU over access for GCC refinery products and chemicals. Commentary from the Gulf itself suggests that the EU practice of including clauses on human rights and labour market and environmental regulation may be at the heart of the slow progress from the GCC side.
Topic:
Environment, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

7. Contemporary Chinese Views of Europe

Author:
Karine Lisbonne-de Vergeron
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Undoubtedly, the Chinese currently think of Europe, and of the European Union, primarily in economic terms. Since 2004, the EU has been China's first trading partner, accounting for 15% of its overall external trade in 2006, with a bilateral increase of 25% from 2005. Overall, bilateral trade between China and the EU has increased more than sixty-fold since 1978 to reach nearly €255 billion in 2006. In return, China is the EU's second largest trading partner, after the United States, and in 2006 became the largest source of EU imports, amounting to approximately €192 billion, or 14.4% of the total, a 21% increase from 2005. Over the same period, EU exports to China increased by 23% to approximately €63 billion.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

8. Growth and Responsibility: A Review of Business Action for Africa between the UK and German G8 Presidencies 2005-7

Author:
Richard Reeve
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In March 2005 the report of the Commission for Africa called for a sea change in the way the business community engaged in the development process in Africa. The G8 Gleneagles summit that July made a series of commitments on boosting African development, while in London a new international network was launched to bring G8 and African business leaders together to build on the momentum of the Commission and the UK's dual G8 and EU presidencies. Business Action for Africa (BAA) declared its aims as: to present a clear African and international business voice to promote growth and poverty reduction; to promote more positive, balanced perceptions of Africa; and to develop and showcase good business practice.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and Germany

9. Integrating European Business

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The first speaker considered the questions, 'What was expected from the internal market/ “1992” Programme?' and 'What is the single market?' The single market is the cornerstone of the EU, enshrined in Article 3 of the Treaty on European Union. It had not yet been completed but the Commission had argued, nevertheless, that EU GDP is 1.8% higher than it would have been without the single European market (SEM).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe