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1. The Polish Economy 2023 and Beyond: How to Mend Home Loans

Author:
Andrzej Reich, Dariusz Filar, and Michal Polasik
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication's second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Interest Rates, Risk, Mortgages, Banking, Loans, and Financial Education
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2. Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Ukraine has been a stellar example of a little reform going a long way. First invaded by Russia in 2014, the Ukraine of 2022 was a different country, with more resilience, more ability, and more depth. As it pushes to repel the Russian aggressor, it is never too early to think about how Ukraine can continue its reform process and become a state that is free of Russia, economically strong, and a model for policy reform. The ways in which Ukraine can attain this goal are contained in the economic roadmap, “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine,” produced by Ukrainian experts and world-class policy advisors under CASE-Center for Social Research and CASE Ukraine and funded by agencies from around Europe and the United States. This report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction, as well as enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. Over 30 years of independence, Ukraine has launched almost all of the necessary reforms to build and develop a market economy. In 2014, Ukraine signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, and substantial progress has been demonstrated since then. However, the country fought against a legacy of start-stop reforms and inattention to major objectives such as building the rule of law and encouraging private sector competition. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, it had been making progress in institutional reforms but still had far to go. This report addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law, a problem lasting for three decades. Our team of experts propose specific mechanisms to make the transition to a country which respects the rule of law, including ways to improve the judiciary, respect property rights, and encourage private sector competition. The report also examines the question on how the Ukrainian government can attract funding and rebuild the country after the war is over, discussing ways in which the EU and the donor community can be involved. The eventual end of the war also provides Ukraine with a unique opportunity to leap ahead in the European integration process and to finish its institutional reforms. With Ukraine now a candidate for EU membership, the prospects of the integration process, the unprecedented support for integration with the EU in Ukrainian society and the continued support of the West, present Ukraine with a way forward and overcoming the obstacles that have delayed, stalled, or even caused the abandonment of reforms in the past.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Economy, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

3. The Fate of Flat Tax in the EU countries

Author:
Krassen Stanchev
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Since 1989, flat tax (FT) reforms have been attempted in Europe and the EU only by ex-communist countries and Iceland. In the 1990s all ex-communist countries lowered and simplified their income taxes, often starting with corporate taxes. In the late 1990s and early 2000s they also reformed their social security systems. In many respects the tax reforms have never stopped, but with regard to income taxation they are less radical than in the 1990s and at the turn of this century. Even when there were reforms re-establishing progressive taxation, they have almost never returned to complex sets of nominal rates and a steep vertical ladder of progressive thresholds. This report attempts to reconstruct the reasons why EU countries moved to introduce proportional taxation on either corporate or personal income, or both, as well as the reasons behind five of them returning to progressive taxation. These reforms happened in different political and economic contexts. It would be difficult to identify unequivocal causality between flattening taxes and economic performance. However, the report compares the dynamics of economic growth and factors related to competitiveness for periods before and after the reforms were launched. The same effort has been made for indicators of wealth and disposable income. The analysis allows for a discussion of lessons learnt and of the prospects for further reforms. The report concludes that it seems impossible to prove that FT systems have been a key contributor to higher economic growth. However, it does seem that, if the social security contributions remain relatively stable and are financed by other tax revenues, they have a positive impact on fiscal performance and general welfare.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Corporate Tax, and Flat Tax
Political Geography:
Europe and Post-Soviet Europe

4. Excess liquidity in the euro area: developments and implications

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The excess liquidity in the euro area is a product of a long period of quantitative easing. It changed the operational framework of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy from the scarce reserves system (SRS) to the abundant reserves system (ARS). To eliminate excess liquidity and return to the SRS, the ECB must intensify quantitative tightening, which is also essential for successful disinflation. Fiscal adjustment can help in this process and mitigate the risk of financial instability. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 25 September 2023.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Finance, European Central Bank, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Place of crowdfunding in financing investment projects in Poland

Author:
Marcin Czugan, Michał Karwasiński, Jarosław Mizera, and Ewa Balcerowicz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Crowdfunding for business ventures, commonly referred to interchangeably as investment crowdfunding or equity crowdfunding, is a young practice. It first appeared in the USA (in 2009), and is now a rapidly expanding market in developed economies. The first case of investment crowdfunding in Poland, historically the first issuance, took place in 2012, barely three years later than in the United States. Such crowdfunding is a form of raising capital from the market (from investors) for the development of companies by entrepreneurs or owners, acting as the issuers. Specialised companies (fintechs) creating so-called crowdfunding platforms for matching demand with supply – and where offerings are announced and transactions carried out – are the market’s intermediaries. The report we are releasing discusses the specifics of investment crowdfunding, or in other words how this form of raising funds differs from older forms of external financing for businesses. It also presents the potential and the role of crowdfunding for the development of the capital market in Poland, describing demand for this type of financing, the level of interest among investors, and what both demand and interest depend on. In November 2021, European regulations were introduced specifically for this new market. Our authors analyse how these regulations will affect the future of equity crowdfunding in Poland. This issue of mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, on crowdfunding in Poland, follows on from a seminar held in March 2022. Three guests at the seminar were experts participating directly in the development of this new component of Poland’s capital market, therefore possessing unique knowledge of the specifics of crowdfunding, and its strengths and limitations.
Topic:
Finance, Innovation, Economic Development, Private Sector, Knowledge Economy, and Crowdfunding
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

6. Anti-fragmentation: an incomplete diagnosis and wrong solution

Author:
Marek Dąbrowski
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
A study by Marek Dąbrowski (CASE) entitled “Anti-fragmentation: an incomplete diagnosis and wrong solution”, requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), was published in the Monetary Dialogue Papers series in September 2022. Since the 1990s, the public debt-to-GDP ratio has gradually increased in almost all current euro area member countries. In most of them, it now exceeds the Maastricht reference value of 60%, in several of them – 100%, and in a few cases – even more. It creates a severe challenge to the stability of public finances, the entire financial system and monetary stability in the euro area being also the primary cause of the so-called fragmentation. The study begins with an analysis of the excessive public debt in the euro area. An overview of the fiscal stance in the euro area as a whole and, separately, in individual Member States from 1997 to 2021 is complemented with the analysis of mechanisms of fiscal discipline – again on the EU/euro area level and the national level separately. Three causes of the ineffectiveness of these mechanisms are then identified: (1) political economy factors at the national level; (2) political economy factors at the European level; and (3) fallacies of economic science. The next part concerns ECB involvement in the sovereign debt market in the euro area. A historical analysis is conducted starting from the period of the EFC (2010–2015) to quantitative easing of 2014-2022. Two important periods from recent history are detailed - additional quantitative easing of the pandemic era (2020–2022) and the turn towards monetary policy tightening in 2022. In the last part of the study, the author argues that the problem of “fragmentation” is wrongly formulated. It is a secondary symptom of the excessive sovereign indebtedness in some euro area economies. It should be remedied by fiscal policy measures (fiscal consolidation) rather than by the ECB’s quasi-fiscal activities. The latter is not consistent with its legal status, compromises its independence (and credibility of the euro), and undermines its ability to deliver on its price stability mandate. When a targeted market intervention is necessary, it should be provided by the European Stability Mechanism, the institution created for this purpose in 2012, instead of the ECB.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Global value chains: Potential synergies between external trade policy and internal economic initiatives to address the strategic dependencies of the EU

Author:
Agnieszka Skowronek and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Global value chains enable two-thirds of international trade, notably for the EU. The EU wants to preserve its commercial links with third countries and organisations to make up for trade disruptions. This study examines sustainable supply of raw materials, commodities, and critical goods using the EU's Open Strategic Autonomy concept. It examines which raw material are crucial for sustainable supply and necessary for the green transition. The paper examines EU internal legislation and international cooperation instruments to determine the EU's disruption risk. It evaluates the economic impact of EU preferential trade agreements on raw material availability. The study illustrates the political and economic relevance of raw material partnerships and plurilateral and bilateral trade agreements. It analyses the EU's toolbox for safeguarding its interests and making independent trade choices to counteract other actors' unfair practices and intervention. Finally, the paper examines regulatory frameworks, international alliances, and activities to find ways to strengthen global value chains in critical EU industries.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?

Author:
Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

9. In search of new opportunities. Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Author:
Agnieszka Kulesa, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz, Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský, and Andrei Yeliseyeu
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
We are pleased to present the report on circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between four research institutions – Warsaw-based CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, CASE Belarus, the Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic), and the Institute of Economic Research, SAS (Slovakia). The partners teamed up to implement the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia”. Additionally, Youth Labour Rights, an NGO based in Belarus, was responsible for launching and maintaining a website addressed to Belarusians interested in working in Poland, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic. The implementation of this project was possible thanks to co-financing from the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration. Circular migration flows between the countries examined in the report were affected by two events that occurred in 2020. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus caused three major shocks – to public health systems, to states’ economies, and to the global financial system. The pandemic also temporarily closed borders and essentially stopped international migration. These measures, together with the border restrictions and lockdown measures which followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, have affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic as well. Surprisingly, in the case of Poland, however, this influence was limited in time and related only to the first months of the pandemic (March-April 2020). In fact, 2020 was the sixth consecutive year since 2014 during which the number of documents issued to Belarusian nationals as part of the simplified system of employing foreign nationals in Poland increased. Longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on circular migration patterns and related policies are yet to be seen, but preliminary observations are presented in the respective chapters. The second event that occurred in 2020 which affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic was the Belarusian presidential election held in August. The announcement of the official results, according to which Alexander Lukashenko could commence his sixth term in office as the president of Belarus, provoked political demonstrations and mass anti-government protests across the country. As a result, officially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Belarusian government closed land border crossings for people wishing to leave the country from 21 December 2020 until further notice. This issue, as it is rather recent and thus difficult to evaluate fully, is just signalled in the report. The report is divided into five main parts. It starts with the executive summary, which discusses the concept of circular migration and synthesises the main findings of the country chapters. The country-specific section includes a chapter concentrated on Belarus, followed by chapters dedicated to the Visegrad Group countries under study – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Each country chapter ends with a set of recommendations addressed to policy makers. Notes on the contributors can be found at the end of the report.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Belarus

10. Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

11. Turning away from globalization? Trade wars and the rules of competition in global trade: Implications for the EU

Author:
Jan J. Michałek and Przemyslaw Wozniak
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit. Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

12. Our Europe: 15 Years of Poland in the European Union

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Mirosława Marody, Maja Sawicka, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Jan J. Michałek, Andrzej Halesiak, Stanisława Golinowska, Irena Topińska, Anna Fornalczyk, Richard Woodward, Grzegorz Gorzelak, Andrzej Kwieciński, Katarzyna Zawalińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Anna Malinowska, Wiesława Kozek, Magdalena Kąkol, Maciej Nowicki, Grzegorz Wiśniewski, Andrzej Cylwik, Tomasz Komornicki, Urszula Sztanderska, Jacek Liwiński, Dorota Ilczuk, Anna Karpińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Mateusz Szczurek, Stanisław Gomułka, and Paweł Wojciechowski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration. This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, Social Policy, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

13. The European Union: State of play and prospects

Author:
Janusz Lewandowski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski, the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

14. The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Anna Malinowska, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report, prepared by a team of economists from CASE, is a continuation of the 2018 analysis The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy commissioned by JTI Polska Sp. z o.o. The purpose of the research whose results are presented in this report is to assess the economic significance, challenges and development prospects of the tobacco product manufacturing, trade and distribution sector in Poland. In the report we analyze a cross-section of the tobacco industry and its significance for the economy as a whole. We also present the significant barriers to the sector’s growth, i.e. the illicit market, costs of compliance and regulatory uncertainty, and we also model the long-term macroeconomic effects of potential changes in the industry. To the best of our knowledge, at the moment this is the most comprehensive economic study of the sector.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Tobacco
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

15. Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Central Bank, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

16. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported. In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019. Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion). The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct. The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap. Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent and EUR 164 billion in 2020. The hike in 2020 could be more pronounced than the gradual decrease of the Gap observed over the three preceding years. Moreover, a return to the VAT Gap levels observed in 2018 and 2019 will take time and require significant action from tax administrations. This Report has been written for the European Commission, DG TAXUD, for the project TAXUD/2019/AO-14, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, and is a follow-up to the seven reports published between 2013 and 2019.
Topic:
European Union, Fiscal Policy, VAT, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

17. The Rule of Law and its Social Reception as Determinants of Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany

Author:
Christopher Hartwell, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Maria Krell
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland. But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020). Against this background, this study examines the rule of law as a determinant of economic development in Germany and Poland from both the de jure and de facto perspectives.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

18. Informal employment and wages in Poland

Author:
Jacek Liwiński
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics. Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

19. Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer, and construction services

Author:
Anna Malinowska, Krzysztof Głowacki, Malgorzata McKenzie, and Przemysław Kowalski
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report analyses the extent of integration within the European Single Market in three services sectors, (1) construction, (2) IT/computer services, and (3) accounting and auditing services, and draws key conclusions in the context of future Single Market services liberalisation efforts. The main body of the report provides a comparative analysis of trade integration and recent trade developments within the three sectors, focusing on Poland’s stakes in the agenda regarding liberalisation of trading in services. It assesses the still existing trade barriers, both for Polish services providers operating in the European Single Market and for foreign firms from other Single Market member states selling to customers in Poland. The discussion of potential benefits from further liberalisation of trade in these sectors for Poland is set in the broader context of the offensive and defensive interests in these sectors of three of Poland’s EU partners: Germany, Hungary and Sweden. The main body of the report is organised into three parts. The first one serves as the background for subsequent analyses, providing general information on trade in services in the EU and modes of the provision of services across borders, as well as presenting statistics on export competitiveness in the sectors of interest. The second part discusses the Services Directive and relevant liberalisation efforts within the Single Market. This is followed by a detailed analysis of the remaining barriers in the three sectors within the Single Market. The last section concludes and provides key policy recommendations. The Annexes present additional sectoral statistics and information on economic characteristics, trade integration, and the remaining trade barriers identified in Poland and the three selected EU partners (Germany, Hungary and Sweden). Additional information on the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index methodology used to assess the significance and implications of remaining trade barriers is also included. The study “Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer and construction services” was commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in consultation with the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Technology) and prepared by CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research. It is intended as a Polish contribution to the ongoing discussion on the future of the Single Market at the highest political level as well as in the context of upcoming programming of the agenda of the next European Commission.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

20. EuroPACE Market Analysis

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski, Izabela Styczynska, Karolina Beaumont, and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
EuroPACE is an innovative tool designed to make home renovation simple, affordable and reliable for all Europeans by combining affordable financing with people-centric technical assistance. EuroPACE offers 100% up-front financing that can be repaid over a long term of up to 25 years. The innovation lies in the collection and repayment mechanism – financing is attached to the property and is repaid regularly with charges linked to a property. Homeowners are offered logistical and technical support throughout the process and access to trained and qualified con-tractors. Thus, EuroPACE overcomes the main barriers to home renovation – lack of financing, technical knowledge and complexity of the works. The concept of EuroPACE is inspired by the success of a financing model called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE), launched in California in 2008. In the United States (US), the PACE market reached over USD 6 billion in funded projects, including the retrofit of over 220,000 homes, which resulted in more than 50,000 new local jobs and the creation of hundreds new companies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, Climate Finance, Fiscal Policy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe