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301. Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Malaysia Steps into Spotlight as ASEAN and East Asia Summit Chair

Author:
Phuong Nguyen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Expectations for this week's East Asia Summit and related meetings have been rather modest given the increasing complexity of issues facing countries in Asia and the limited capacity of Myanmar as host. To be clear, Myanmar has done a commendable job given this is its first time chairing ASEAN and hosting other regional meetings.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Malaysia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia

302. Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Americans are reluctant to accept terrorism is part of their daily lives, but attacks have been planned or attempted against American targets (usually airliners or urban areas) almost every year since 9/11. Europe faces even greater risk, given the thousands of EU citizens who will return hardened and radicalized from fighting in Syria and Iraq.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Europe, and Syria

303. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems , but today I'm going to focus as much on facts and numbers as possible.
Topic:
Globalization, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States and China

304. Chinese Strategy and Military Power in 2014

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states. This report focuses on China 's military developments and modernization and how they are perceived in the US, the West, and Asia.
Topic:
International Security, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Korea

305. Issues and Insights Respond and Restrain: Deterrence and Reassurance in Northeast Asia

Author:
Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US extended deterrent in Northeast Asia is strong. US alliances with Japan and South Korea are each arguably in the best shape in years, with alliance modernization efforts proceeding in tandem with domestic adjustments to security policy that strengthen the foundation for cooperative action. Policy toward North Korea, historically a wedge between Washington and allied governments in the region, is largely aligned, and serving as a glue rather than a source of discord.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan and South Korea

306. Insecticide Resistance and Malaria A Threat Decades in the Making

Author:
William G. Brogdon, Anthony Fiore, S.P. Kachur, Laurence Slutsker, and Robert A. Wirtz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Insecticide (DDT) use to control malaria was first employed successfully in the antimalaria program in Greece in 1947. By 1951, DDT success in controlling malaria was reported in 22 countries. However, that year also saw the first report of DDT resistance, in Anopheles sacharovi in Greece. By 1954, resistance to DDT among mosquitos was known to be a global problem, documented in Europe, the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The World Health Organization–led Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) began in 1955, when resistance was already pronounced worldwide. Scientists did not identify the underlying biochemical mechanism contributing to insecticide resistance until 1958. By then, insecticide resistance was recognized by many to be a major contributor to the ultimate dismantling of GMEP, given the limited capabilities and knowledge of the time. Consequently, the global focus shifted from malaria “eradication” to malaria “control” in the late 1960s.
Topic:
Environment, Health, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa, Greece, and Asia

307. U.S. Department of Defense Contributions to Malaria Elimination in the Era of Artemisinin Resistance

Author:
Mark Fukuda and Tom Cullison
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), militaries remain essential to any effort to control and eliminate artemisinin-resistant malaria. Stretching back to World War II and the Vietnam War, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has a long and distinguished history researching and developing new tools for malaria control, in partnership with both military and civilian host government experts. Since the mid-1990s, DoD has significantly expanded its global surveillance, training, and capacity - building investments. As Southeast Asian countries have mobilized in recent years against artemisinin-resistance with the ultimate aim of malaria elimination, DoD and regional militaries have actively joined the effort, initiating promising pilot approaches in Southeast Asia. To strengthen DoD's contribution, it is proposed that the United States launch a Defense Malaria Elimination Program that will significantly enhance partner militaries' capacities, advance the goal of elimination, including the threat of resistance, and accelerate the development of drugs and vaccines.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

308. Transformative Tools for Malaria Elimination

Author:
PATH Malaria Center of Excellence
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past 15 years, malaria has gained increased attention and action from the public health community, with researchers, global and national funders, and, most importantly, national governments and communities in endemic areas. Renewed efforts to fight the disease have resulted in an unprecedented 50 percent reduction in malaria deaths in African children since 2000. This progress has been achieved in large part because effective, efficient, and affordable tools emerged as a result of earlier investments in research and development.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa

309. The Danger of Untreatable Malaria Is Real and Present

Author:
Christopher V. Plowe
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The malaria parasite is thought to have killed more people throughout human history than any other single cause. Over the last decade, a large increase in resources for combating malaria — with the lion's share coming from U.S. taxpayers — has resulted in dramatic reductions in malaria cases and deaths in many countries. These successes spurred the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization (WHO) to call for global eradication of malaria in 2007.
Topic:
Development, Health, Humanitarian Aid, World Health Organization, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
United States

310. Taxes and Development

Author:
Conor M. Savoy and Christina M. Perkins
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The ability of a state to mobilize its own resources to pay for vital social services is at the heart of a well-functioning government. As developing countries have grown wealthier over the past de cade, they have seen a corresponding rise in the amount of domestic revenue available. The numbers are truly staggering: in 2012 developing and emerging economies mobilized $7.7 trillion in domestic resources. Even in sub- Saharan Africa, where the pace of change has been slower, domestic resources topped $530 billion in 2012; official development assistance in contrast totaled approximately $54 billion. Some of this is driven by the commodities boom of the past several years, but much is organic growth that has seen gross domestic product (GDP) rise. These domestic numbers, plus the rapid growth in private capital flows to the developing world, radically change the calculus of development financing.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
Africa

311. The Emirates Center and Gulf Think Tanks: The Next Twenty years

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Let me begin by congratulating the Emirates Center and Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi for so many accomplishments over the last 2 0 years. It has been a privilege to watch its growth, its sustained quality, and its steadily increasing influence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

312. Federated Defense in Asia

Author:
Michael J. Green, Kathleen H. Hicks, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security concerns—from terrorism to cyber attacks—are best met with concerted multilateral responses. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security spending, working together is paramount. This is perhaps most evident in Asia, where present and potential future threats to security and prosperity are high and shared interests are substantial.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Intelligence
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

313. Strategic Partnerships to Advance Family Planning

Author:
Janet Fleischman and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Senegalese minister of health, Dr. Awa Marie Coll-Seck, used a familiar term with us to express her commitment to expanding access to family planning—“yes we can.” That is a bold proposition in such a conservative country, in a region with some of the world's highest maternal mortality and unmet need for family planning. Her leadership reflects an important moment in Senegal, and prospects for advancing women's health and family planning in the subregion may depend on its success.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, and Reform
Political Geography:
Senegal

314. The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: The Metrics of Crisis?

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self-financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

315. Talking Technology Best Practices in Communicating

Author:
Maren Leed, Kathryn Easop, Alvaro Genie, and Jaimie Hoskins
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In recent months, Department of Defense leaders have raised increasing concerns about the potential for the United States to lose its comparative advantage in multiple technology areas. To help address this trend, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently directed a “Defense Innovation Initiative” aimed at fostering the development of breakthrough technologies. Success in this effort will require a series of actions, but all rest on one critical factor: a shared understanding across the research and policy communities of the scientific potential and its importance to our national security going forward. Without that common view, scientists in both the public and private sector will be unable to sustain sufficient support to deliver meaningful advances.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States

316. Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition - Volume I Introduction, US Policy, and Cuts in US Forces and Spending

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self - financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

317. Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition–IV: Progress in Afghan Force Development

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This report reflects major progress in many areas of ANSF development. It also warns, however, just how rapidly the ANSF has expanded, and how poorly that expansion was initially funded and staffed with adequate advisors. It also shows that much of the ANSF is a relatively ineffective and corrupt police force that lacks the support of other key elements of the justice system in many areas. The unclassified reporting also have ceased to provide any meaningful insight into the development of either the Ministry of Defense or Ministry of the Interior, and that the reporting of unclassified readiness data on the ANA and ANP has been reduced in scope over the last six months to the point where it has little or no real meaning.
Topic:
Corruption and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

318. NATO's Posture after the Wales Summit

Author:
Guillaume Lasconjarias
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The recent NATO Summit in Wales has been viewed as a watershed event not just because of the particular moment at which it took place, but because of the pledges taken by heads of states and governments. For sure, the still ongoing Ukraine crisis and the rising insurgency in Syria-Iraq might have acted as true “wake-up calls”, calling the Alliance to step up its posture and show its determination, especially in terms of commitments towards bolstering the main pillars of the Alliance. The initiatives announced in terms of readiness and defence posture, the Readiness Action Plan in particular, belong to a series of reassurance measures towards Eastern allies, but also revitalize the NATO Response Force through an expeditionary spearhead, the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. Although some might consider these measures as “too little too late”, they prove the Alliance's cohesion and the commitment to the transatlantic link.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq, Ukraine, and Syria

319. Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance

Author:
Michael J. Green, David J. Berteau, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Three years have passed since President Barack Obama laid the groundwork for the U.S. rebalance to the Asia Pacific region. Support for the rebalance strategy is substantial, but questions remain about its implementation. As China's power grows and its assertive- ness in regional disputes increases, U.S. allies and partners continue to rely on the United States to help reinforce regional security. In this increasingly tense Asia Pacific security environment, it is critical that regional allies, partners, and competitors recognize and acknowledge that the United States is a Pacific power with the ability to carry out its rebalance strategy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

320. Leveraging Global Value Chains for a Federated Approach to Defense

Author:
David J. Berteau, Scott Miller, Ryan Crotty, and Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
CSIS launched the Federated Defense Project to assess and recommend concrete ways for the United States and its partners to integrate their defense capabilities in support of shared interests. Rather than creating interdependencies that would hinder autonomous action or bind partners to commitments to which they only share a tangential interest, the federated defense strategy builds on the natural interests of allies and partners to develop closer working ties to the United States and one another in order to manage the challenges posed by constrained resources and a daunting geostrategic environment. Buttressing any form of federated defense must be a set of bottom-up, organic interactions within the private sector to develop the capabilities that will underpin these security architectures. The expansion of business-to-business relationships among providers of platforms, supplies, and services to the network of trusted partners and allies is a key building block in ensuring adequate capabilities development, integration, and interoperability. To date, this interaction has occurred despite the many barriers that exist to their success. A federated approach will seek to enable this cooperation and lower these barriers, leading to greater cooperation, collaboration, and integration through global value chains (GVCs). Addressing the findings below is essential to the successful execution of a federated approach to defense.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Privatization, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States

321. U.S. Support Essential to Ambitious Global Introduction of Inactivated Polio Vaccine

Author:
Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Earlier this fall, Nepal became the first low - income country to introduce the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into its immunization system. Many more countries will have to follow suit to meet the ambitious deadlines laid out in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's (GPEI) Polio Eradication Endgame Strategic Plan 2013 – 2018. The plan calls for global introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine childhood immunization schedules followed by eventual withdrawal of the widely used oral polio vaccine (OPV). Currently, 75 mostly high - and middle - income countries use the injectable IPV in their immunization systems, leaving 119 that need to do so by the end of 2015 to keep with the plan's schedule.
Topic:
Health and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

322. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

323. The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan increased 36.8 percent between 2012 and 2013. Fatalities increased 25.3 percent and injuries increased 36.9 percent. No specific perpetrator organization was identified for 86.2 percent of all attacks in Pakistan. Of the remaining attacks, nearly half (49%) were carried out by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Attacks attributed to the TTP killed more than 550 and wounded more than 1,200 in 2013. Twenty other groups, including a number of Baloch nationalist groups such as the Baloch Republican Army, the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Baloch Liberation Tigers, carried out attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. More than 37 percent of all attacks in Pakistan took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 28.4 percent took place in Balochistan, and 21.2 percent took place in Sindh province. The proportion of attacks in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) decreased from 19.6 percent in 2012 to 9.4 percent in 2013. The most frequently attacked types of targets in Pakistan were consistent with global patterns. More than 22 percent of all attacks primarily targeted private citizens and property, more than 17 percent primarily targeted the police, and more than 11 percent primarily targeted general (non-diplomatic) government entities. However, these three types of targets accounted for a smaller proportion of attacks in Pakistan (51.1%) than they did globally (61.7%). Instead, terrorist attacks in Pakistan were almost twice as likely to target educational institutions (6.4%) and more than three times as likely to target violent political parties (4.4%), organizations that have at times engaged in both electoral politics and terrorist violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

324. In India, Election Season Is Never Over

Author:
Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) historic victory in the spring 2014 Lok Sabha1 election was a tremendous accomplishment—yet it still leaves the party with impartial control, at best. Weakness in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP only holds 43 out of 243 seats, may limit the party's ability to enact legislative reforms. And the fact that the BJP only controls 5 of India's 29 states will also blunt the impact of any policy measures adopted at the center. In order to enact a true economic transformation, the BJP will either need the support of a wide range of unaligned parties—which would be a historical abnormality—or to consolidate its power at the state level by winning upcoming state elections. With the BJP's powerful show of force across India in the Lok Sabha election, winning state elections appears to be a viable path.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
India and Southeast Asia

325. Economic Statecraft Redux: Improving the U.S. State Department's Effectiveness in International Economic Policy

Author:
Robert A. Pollard and Gregory N. Hicks
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
At a time when economics has become a more central feature of international relations, the United States needs to raise its game in international economic policy to sustain global leadership. Yet the U.S. government is not well organized at present to meet this challenge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

326. Recent Trends in the South China Sea and U.S. Policy

Author:
Gregory B. Poling
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Tensions in the South China Sea have continued to build over the last year, with the Philippines submitting its evidence against Chinese claims to an arbitration tribunal, Beijing parking an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, and Malaysia growing increasingly anxious about Chinese displays of sovereignty at the disputed James Shoal. These and other developments underscore just how critical managing tensions in the South China Sea are, for the region and for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, China, Malaysia, Beijing, and Asia

327. The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iran has good strategic reasons to seek political accommodation with its Arab Gulf neighbors, to reach an agreement with the P5+1 over its nuclear programs, and to put an end to decades of tension with the US and other Western countries. It is as vulnerable-or more vulnerable-to any interruption in the flow of maritime traffic in the Gulf region as its neighbors, and cannot match the combination of US, UK, British, and Arab Gulf countries in any sustained military conflict.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Iran

328. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation: Opportunities for U.S.-Venezuela Science Cooperation

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy" Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, South America, and Venezuela

329. U.S. Department of Defense Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2012

Author:
David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, and Rhys McCormick
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has been analyzing and reporting on contract spending for national security and across the federal government. This report analyzes contracting for products, services, and research and development (R) by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and its key components. It provides an in-depth look at the trends currently driving nearly 70 percent of all federal contract dollars throughout the growth and subsequent inflection of defense spending of the 2000–2012 study period. This third edition of the DoD report updates reports from previous years and provides greater depth of analysis. Rather than primarily reporting the changes across dozens of graphs, the analysis lists key factors behind growth or decline. However, the ability to dive deeply into raw data is as important to many CSIS readers. To meet that need, CSIS has significantly upgraded the project website (http://www.csis.org/NSPIR/DoD ) to include the graphs and table contained within this report as well as variants by defense component and by product/service area. This web site will be a living repository. Throughout the year, the study team will publish and update the data underlying shorter publications on key issues relevant to the defense- industrial base.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States

330. Biosafety of GM Crops in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania

Author:
Judith A. Chambers
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Against a background of rapid global adoption rates and two decades of safe use, the overly cautious approach to genetic modification (GM) technology in agriculture by African governments seems misplaced. To date, only three African countries are engaged in commercial production of GM crops, although others are experimenting with the technology. Among those African countries experimenting with the technology, several are proceeding along a path toward commercialization and reside geographically close in East Africa, where the potential for regional trade impacts and issues exist. An examination of their historical circumstance and experience with GM technology, and the resultant effects on regulatory policy, can offer some useful insights about the various factors that impact GM technology adoption in Africa, especially from the perspective of the biosafety policies enacted.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Food, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

331. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

332. Investment Facilitation in Transitional and Fragile States

Author:
Jake Cusack and Matt Tilleard
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This paper outlines a new tool for policymakers to deploy to encourage private-sector development in developing nations. Specifically it argues that in fragile states there are systemic failures that cause an intermediation gap between sources of capital and entrepreneurs seeking investment. This gap prevents investment by raising transaction costs and exacerbating information asymmetry. We present a case study of this gap as observed in our work in South Sudan. Then we propose a model of investment facilitation that bridges the intermediation gap. The model is based on donor funding of a neutral nongovernment facilitator to identify attractive investment opportunities, link them to capital, and facilitate transactions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

333. Shaping Iraq's Security Forces US-Iranian Competition Series

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Sam Khazai, and Daniel Dewit
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The last active US combat forces left Iraq in August 2010, marking the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom and the beginning of Operation New Dawn. Some 49,000 advisory troops, four advisor assistance brigades, and a limited number of special operations forces (SOF) remained to train, advise, and assist Iraq's security forces after that date, including the military, intelligence, and police. Until the end, these US troops continued to serve a number of other important security functions: carrying out kinetic operations against Iranian-backed and other militant groups; providing training to the ISF; taking part in joint patrols along the borders of the Kurdish provinces and helping integrate ISF and Kurdish forces; and acting as a deterrent to Iraq's neighbors–in particular Iran.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

334. Chile's 2013 Presidential Elections: Explanations and Predictions

Author:
Carl Meacham and Robert Funk
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the first round of Chile's presidential elections on November 17, Michelle Bachelet, of the progressive New Majority (Nueva Mayoría) coalition, commanded a resounding lead. Garnering 46.7 percent of the popular vote—and putting her 20 points ahead of Alliance for Chile (Alianza por Chile) candidate Evelyn Matthei, her nearest rival—the former president is the likely victor in the runoff elections scheduled for December 15.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

335. The Gulf Military Balance Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
No single aspect of US and Iranian military competition is potentially more dangerous than the missile and nuclear dimensions, and the possibility Iran will deploy long-range, nuclear-armed missiles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

336. Colombia: Peace and Stability in the Post-Conflict Era

Author:
Douglas Farah, Robert D. Lamb, and Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The project that culminated in this report was conceived just over a year ago as an initiative to assess the major accomplishments in strengthening the Colombian government's efforts to bring peace and stability to its countryside.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America

337. Combating Global Poverty: Investing in the Governance and Growth Nexus

Author:
Conor M. Savoy
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Foreign aid donors face a changed development landscape that necessitates a new approach to programming resources. In the last 20 years, countries across the developing world demo cratized, began to improve their governance, and experienced substantial economic growth. Yet, significant challenges remain that must be tackled, many of which fall within the governance and growth nexus. These issues—government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory policies related to the business and investment climate, and barriers to entry to the formal economy—are the preeminent challenges to expanding broad- based economic growth and continuing to reduce global poverty. The United States needs to shift its focus away from meeting basic human needs toward broader institutional development if it is to increase support for the governance and growth nexus. U.S. foreign aid is overwhelmingly directed toward global health and the delivery of other public goods. This must change.
Topic:
Security, Development, Education, Emerging Markets, Health, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

338. Enhancing Value Chains: An Agenda for APEC

Author:
Matthew P. Goodman and Scott Miller
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Economic integration has been a focus of Asia-Pacific affairs for the last quarter century. To support and strengthen economic ties, governments in the region have pursued an array of integration initiatives, from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum launched in 1989 to bilateral and regional trade negotiations currently underway. APEC has been the most successful tool of regional trade and investment integration thus far and has the potential to continue bridging differences between various integration efforts in the region. This report, with input from a wide variety of regional and topical experts, posits that developing a common, high-standard policy approach to value chains could pull together the various integration efforts to the substantial economic benefit of the entire region. The report offers eight recommendations for a broad-based APEC initiative building on existing work in the region on supply chains and connectivity.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

339. Taiwan's Quest for Greater Participation in the International Community

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Taiwan's ambiguous international status has long complicated its ability to participate in international organizations in which the rest of the world shares information and makes critical global decisions. The island's 23 million people cannot reap the benefits that derive from full membership in most international organizations and are unable to contribute their well- developed knowledge, skills, and resources to issues that directly affect them, such as civil aviation regulations, natural disaster response and recovery, and regional economic cooperation. Being barred from international economic organizations erodes Taiwan's international competitiveness and hinders economic liberalization of the domestic economy as well as its further integration regionally.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Non-Governmental Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Island

340. Engaging the Muslim World: Public Diplomacy after 9/11 in the Arab Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan

Author:
Walter Douglas
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Public diplomacy supports the interests of the United States by advancing American goals outside the traditional arena of government-to-government relations. Since 9/11, with the rise of al Qaeda and other violent organizations that virulently oppose the United States, public diplomacy in Muslim-majority countries has become an instrument to blunt or isolate popular support for these organizations. Efforts in this direction complement traditional public diplomacy that explains American policies and society to foreign publics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
America and Asia

341. The Dominican Republic: Becoming a One-Party State?

Author:
Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Is democracy in danger in the Dominican Republic? Is the country headed toward sustained one-party rule? In an effort to understand the state of Dominican democracy and rule of law, CSIS Americas Program director Carl Meacham led a six-month initiative to answer these questions. This report, which details the project's findings, pays particular attention to alleged growing levels of corruption within the government and the independence—and effectiveness—of the country's judiciary, as well as implications for the Dominican Republic's relations with the United States.
Topic:
Corruption and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

342. Afghanistan: Meeting the Real World Challenges of Transition

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The more one looks at the current situation in Afghanistan today, the more likely it seems that Transition will at best produce a weak and divided state and at worst a state that either continues its civil war or comes under Taliban and extremist control. More than a decade of Western intervention has not produced a strong and viable central government, an economy that can function without massive outside aid, or effective Afghan forces. There is no sign that insurgents are being pushed towards defeat or will lose their sanctuaries in Pakistan. This has made every aspect of Transition is a high-risk effort.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Taliban

343. Building Police Institutions in Fragile States

Author:
Richard Downie
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The police are one of the most critical institutions of the state. This is particularly true in nations emerging from conflict, which are characterized by insecurity and high levels of crime. Without security, governments cannot begin rebuilding their economies and improving the lives of their citizens. As a result, they will continue to struggle for legitimacy, and a return to conflict will remain an ever-present risk. A nation's military has an important role to play in dealing with external threats and establishing basic security in the immediate aftermath of conflict, but the police are the institution best suited for dealing with internal security and addressing the safety needs of the public. For citizens, a police officer is the symbolic representation of state authority. Their view of the state and their acceptance of its authority are partially shaped by their interactions with the police.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Corruption, and Crime
Political Geography:
Africa

344. Maternal Health in Nigeria: With Leadership, Progress is Possible

Author:
Jennifer G. Cooke and Farha Tahir
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target date of 2015 approaches, there is a growing sense of urgency among international agencies to intensify efforts on the global challenge of maternal health, where, according to the 2012 MDG progress report, levels of maternal mortality remain “far from the 2015 target”. In 2012, both the G - 8 and the African Union made maternal and child health a keystone of their respective annual summits , and the United Nations launched the Global Strategy for Women ' s and Children ' s Health at a special General Assembly event. A 2 012 global summit in London, co - led by the Gates Foundation, the UK government, and the UN Population Fund, generated $2.6 billion in donor pledges for family planning, a critical element of maternal health. The United States has made maternal health an increasingly important element in U.S. global health efforts, manifested most recently with the launch in June 2012 of the Saving Mothers, Giving Life initiative. The initiative, an ambitious public - private partnership intended “ to drive efficiencies, spur innovation, and ensure impact ” in maternal health , has the strong backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for whom maternal and child health, and women's empowerment more generally, have been consistent priorities.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

345. Conference Report: The Maghreb in Transition

Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, and North Africa

346. The Myth or Reality of US Energy Independence

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US “independence” from energy imports has been a key source of political dispute ever since the October War in 1973 and the Arab oil embargo that followed. Much of this debate has ignored or misstated the nature of the data available on what the US options are, as well as the uncertainties involved in making any long range projections.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

347. Replenishing the Global Fund in 2013

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Hopes are high for a successful outcome of the 2013 replenishment process, through which the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria seeks pledges of $15 billion to support planned activities for 2014-2016. Yet at a time when some experts argue it is finally possible to “turn the tide” on HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis, it is unclear whether countries and other donors will pledge adequate funding to meet the revitalized Fund's replenishment goal. The United States has an essential leadership role to play in helping ensure a successful 2013 replenishment outcome. In the short term it must come through with a strong pledge of its own and engage diplomatically with a range of donor and beneficiary countries to demonstrate support for the organization. In the longer term the U.S. will need to work with the Fund and other governments to identify new ways for public and private-sector entities, as well as individuals, to support the Global Fund's work.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States

348. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume III: The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition. Moreover, large youth populations, high unemployment rates, and political systems with highly centralized power bases have posed other economic, political, and security challenges that the GCC states must address, and which the US must take into consideration when forming strategy and policy. An updated study by the CSIS Burke Chair explores US and Iranian interests in the region, Gulf state and GCC policies toward both the US and Iran, and potential flash-points and vulnerabilities in the Gulf to enhanced competition with Iran. This study examines the growing US security partnership with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – established as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It analyzes the steady growth in this partnership that has led to over $64 billion in new US arms transfer agreements during 2008-2011. It also examines the strengths and weaknesses of the security cooperation between the southern Gulf states, and their relative level of political, social, and economic stability. The study focuses on the need for enhanced unity and security cooperation between the individual Gulf states. It finds that such progress is critical if they are to provide effective deterrence and defense against Iran, improve their counterterrorism capabilities, and enhance other aspects of their internal security.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Oil, Terrorism, Natural Resources, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

349. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

350. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Byran Gold
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iran almost certainly recognizes that US conventional superiority would give the US and its Gulf allies the upper hand in a serious conventional conflict where they could use the full spectrum of their abilities to attack a range of Iranian military targets. As a result, Iran is linking the steady expansion of its asymmetric forces to new uses of its conventional forces, and is building up its missile and nuclear capabilities, in part to deter retaliation against its use of asymmetric warfare, and in part to pose a major challenge to US and allied conventional superiority If the US is to successfully neutralize this complex mix of threats that can be used in so many different ways and at some many different levels of escalation, it must continuously adapt its forward deployed and power projection forces to deal Iranian efforts to improve its capability conduct a battle of attrition in the Gulf or near it, and deal with contingencies like Iran's use of free floating mines, unattributable attacks, and any other form of asymmetric warfare than threatens friendly Gulf states and the flow of world energy exports from the region. The US, must also work with its Gulf partners and other allies to deter and defend against very different types of conflict and be prepared to face sharp limits on the amount of force it can use. US success depends on building up the capabilities of its strategic partners in the Arab Gulf, as well as improving its cooperation with more traditional partners like Britain and France.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East