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21. The Final Stretch: Tackling Remaining HEU Challenges

Author:
Miles A. Pomper, Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, Margarita Kalinina-Pohl, and Artem Lazarev
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Minimizing civil commerce in highly enriched uranium (HEU) has been a longstanding goal of Global Partnership countries, as HEU represents a highly attractive target for terrorists and proliferators. HEU can be used to create the simplest nuclear explosive device, a so-called gun-type weapon. To make matters worse, because HEU is only weakly radioactive, it is relatively safe to handle and hard to detect. Even HEU waste is less radioactive than one might hope from a security-oriented standpoint. HEU’s primary civilian use is in research reactors, which carry out a range of functions from education and basic scientific research to producing medical isotopes and “doping” silicon for semiconductors. The international community has made significant progress during the last decades in converting such reactors from HEU to LEU fuels.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nonproliferation, Peace, Commerce, and Uranium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Scientific Risk Assessment of Genetic Weapons Systems

Author:
Richard Pilch, Jill Luster, Miles A. Pomper, and Timothy Shaw
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
For any emerging technology, defense and homeland security analysts strive to understand (1) its dual-use potential, meaning whether the same research and technology applied for peaceful purposes may be diverted to illicit ends, for example to develop a weapon; (2) the State and sub-State actors with access to that dual-use potential, whether peacefully or illicitly directed; and (3) motivational factors and indicators of intent that might suggest these actors would divert the emerging technology to illicit ends. Precision medicine represents one such emerging technical space. Precision medicine is defined as medical care designed to optimize benefit for particular groups, especially based on genetic (or molecular) profiling. A long-speculated but incompletely understood dual-use consideration of precision medicine is the possible development of a genetic weapon system, defined as a weapon system designed to optimize effect on particular groups based on genetic profiling. This Occasional Paper assesses the potential for precision medicine to be diverted to develop a population-specific genetic weapon system, examines relevant state capabilities and motivations to pursue such an effort, and offers policy recommendations to manage the dual-use implications of this emerging biomedical field while still preserving its potential benefit for human welfare.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Weapons, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. The Security Sector Governance - Migration Nexus

Author:
Sarah Wolff
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This paper argues that there is a need to improve linkages between security sector governance and migration. Going beyond the state-centric understanding of security sector governance and reform (SSG/R), it provides a comprehensive view of the relationship between SSG/R and migration and makes a series of practical recommendations to operationalize a better inclusion of migration issues at domestic, regional and international levels of SSG/R. It provides guidance as to how the military, police forces, intelligence services, border security services, judicial institutions, interior ministries, private actors, civil society organizations and parliaments should rethink the inclusion of migrants’ rights at the heart of their professional practice.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Governance, Leadership, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Simultaneous estimation and modeling of nonlinear, non- Gaussian state-space systems

Author:
Josiah Steckenrider and Furukawa Tomonari
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper presents a framework for simultaneous estimation and modeling of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space systems. In the proposed approach, uncertainty in motion model parameters is incorporated to avoid overconfidence in state prediction and better account for modeling inaccuracies. The additional original contribution of a model correction stage improves nonlinear model parameter estimates in order to enhance the accuracy of state estimation. The presented nonlinear/non-Gaussian Simultaneous Estimation And Modeling (SEAM) approach was compared with contemporary estimation techniques using a Monte-Carlo simulation study. This study showed that the proposed method successfully reduces estimation error relative to existing approaches even when substantial model parameter uncertainty and multi-modal sensor noise are present. The framework has potential use in a wide range of applications where state-space estimation is employed, including robotics, signal processing, and controls.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Space, Artificial Intelligence, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Overcoming Challenges to Democracy and Lorem Ipsum Governance Programs in Dolor Sit Post-Conflict Countries

Author:
Fernanda Buril, Bailey Dinman, and Chad Vickery
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The quality of democracies around the globe is declining while political crises and conflicts are worsening in several regions. This context makes democracy and governance assistance both increasingly difficult and ever more crucial. In conflict and post-conflict transitional environments, weakened institutions, political turmoil, social divisions and grievances and security threats often hinder efforts to build or rebuild democracy and good governance. Although the COVID-19 crisis led to several ceasefires in early 2020, conflicts are still on the rise globally. This makes it crucial for donors and implementers to understand how to better support partners in these contexts, optimize resources and adapt and improve existing and future programs.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Gender-Sensitive Indicators for Early Lorem Ipsum Warning of Violence Dolor Sit and Conflict

Author:
Louise Allen and Gina Chirillo
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Conflict and violence monitoring and early warning systems can save lives. Gender-sensitive indicators help provide nuanced and complete contextual information to strengthen the systems’ predictive capacity, but their integration has been infrequent and inconsistent. Overlooking gender in early warning risks ignoring gender norms or behaviors that contribute to violence. It further risks formulating policies and responses that do not account for the differential needs and experiences of women, men, girls and boys. Simply put, we must integrate gender in early warning systems, and the alternative is dangerous.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Gender Based Violence, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Social Media Strategies for Election Management Bodies

Author:
Gabe Morris
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Technology platforms and products continue to transform politics and elections with prominent implications for voter trust and understanding. As social media increasingly becomes a space where disinformation and conspiracy about elections flourish, it is essential that democratic actors communicate effectively to share credible information that builds trust and brings transparency to the administration of elections. In keeping with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ (IFES) strategic commitment to ensuring that technology, information and data positively serve democracy and elections, we continue to provide tools and resources to help our partners around the world stay abreast of the evolving technological landscape. Despite the proliferation of challenges stemming from the evolution of social media and digital communication, IFES and its election management body (EMB) partners recognize the value of social media in reaching voters, enhancing transparency and countering disinformation and hate speech with credible, authoritative content.
Topic:
Elections, Social Media, Voting, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Applicability of Transitional Justice in Pre-Conflict Contexts

Author:
Pablo de Greiff
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The current moment can be characterized, politically, in terms of two macro-level phenomena, a lurch towards populism (of the left and the right) on the part of many leaders (and eventually, their followers), and simultaneously, unusually large popular mobilizations in favor of progressive causes. These seemingly dilemmatic factors arguably share a common underlying cause, namely, great lack of trust in the familiar mechanisms of political representation—a lack of trust which itself has deeper roots in increasing inequality and dysfunctional forms of the politics of recognition.
Topic:
Inequality, Populism, Transitional Justice, and Pre-Conflict Contexts
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. From Regressive Subsidies to Progressive Redistribution: The Role of Redistribution and Recognition in Energy Subsidy Reform

Author:
Tara Moayed, Scott Guggenheim, and Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Energy subsidies are one of the few domains where there is a near full-throated consensus among progressives, governments, and economists over the need for reform. Nearly everywhere, energy subsidies are regressive, vastly favoring the car-and energy-consuming parts of the population that are the least in need. The costs of these subsidies can vary, but in many countries, they represent a large fiscal burden. Prior to its 2005 reforms, for example, Indonesia's fuel subsidy was nearly the same amount as its health budget and its targeted anti-poverty programs combined. From the perspective of global climate change, few economic policies are as damaging as the direct and indirect contributions of fossil fuel subsidies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Reform, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. A Civil or Uncivil Civil Society?

Author:
Liv Tørres
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Civil society is part and parcel of the institutional architecture that will be crucial to help us out of our current crisis of staggering inequality, pandemic trauma and required recovery. Yet, civil society is large, complex, fragmented, and polarized. It gained renewed and considerable attention during, and after, the ‘Third Wave’ of democracy in the early 1990s when trade unions, professional organizations, women’s and civic organizations, as well as religious organizations and churches in many countries mobilized for democratic change. This was, of course, not the first nor the last period of civic action and mobilization. Civil society has, however, changed dramatically over the past decades. The number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has grown. Membership in civil society organizations has kept up, but the meaning of membership has most probably changed. Civic space is under considerable pressure, while social movements, activism, and protests have increased. All in all, civil society now represents a wide variety of actors with different governance structures, with/without membership, varying in size and agenda.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, NGOs, and Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus