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39192. Great Promise, but Poor Performance: Understanding the Collapse of Venezuela's Causa Radical
- Author:
- Daniela Nogueira-Budny
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Rising meteorically to national prominence amidst the collapse of Venezuela's ossified two-party system, the leftist Radical Cause (LCR) seemed poised to ease the country's crisis of representation and win the presidency in 1993. Instead, it imploded, paving the way for radical populist Hugo Chávez. How can the poor performance of a party with such great promise be explained? This article explains LCR's initial success and eventual failure through the party's adoption of internally democratic mechanisms. Its highly participatory approach attracted progressive groups, helping LCR's early "meteoric" success. But it also sowed the seeds of LCR's collapse: the absence of formalized decision-making rules and hierarchical leadership hindered the resolution of a political impasse. Internal democracy proved harmful to institutional growth and prevented the party from confronting factional conflict and instituting much- needed reforms in the long run. It is not only a heavy hierarchy and bureaucracy that prevent political change, but also the opposite in a base democracy.
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela
39193. Partisan Protesters and Nonpartisan Protests in Brazil
- Author:
- Matthew S. Winters and Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In young democracies with weak parties, there is some evidence that partisan identification may shift in response to short-term government performance. The massive protests that erupted in Brazil in June 2013 sharply increased the salience of, and public attention to, poor government performance and took most observers by surprise. They were also widely depicted as nonpartisan or even antipartisan. We use two well-timed surveys to examine the effects of the protests on mass partisanship. We find that the protests led to increased nonpartisanship and decreased attachment to the governing Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party, PT) among the public as a whole. We also show that small leftist parties were more broadly represented among protesters than has been previously recognize.
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
39194. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy
- Author:
- John Lee and Charles Horner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
39195. Questions about the Geopolitics of Climate Engineering
- Author:
- Lee Lane
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. intelligence community and other federal agencies have commissioned the National Academies of Science (NAS) to study climate engineering. The term 'climate engineering' (CE) refers to a family of concepts that might be used to curtail global warming. In 2013, the NAS assembled an expert panel to study the subject. The panel plans to issue a report in the fall of 2014.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
39196. Shadow Wars of Weapons Acquisition: Arms Denial and its Strategic Implications
- Author:
- Sarit Markovich and Oren Setter
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In trying to prevent adversaries from acquiring new military capabilities, countries often employ strategies of arms denial; e.g., "unilateral diplomacy," supply chain interdiction, covert sabotage and targeted military strikes. We posit that the prevalence of this approach gives rise to strategic effects that affect all players' behavior. We explore this phenomenon using a game-theoretic model of weapons acquisition and denial. Our model shows that denial could indeed be the equilibrium result of such strategic interactions, and provides the conditions under which the threat of denial is sufficient to cause adversaries to refrain from acquisition altogether. We further identify strategic levers that actors can use to improve their position in this interaction. The results of the model are illustrated using real-world examples and are then used to assess the implications of arms denial on arms races and regional stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
39197. Time to Worry about China's Military Rise
- Author:
- Evan Braden Montgomery
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- What are the potential consequences of China's military modernization? This question is at the heart of recent debates over the durability of U.S. primacy, whether or not the United States can sustain its grand strategy of global engagement, and how it should adapt its armed forces. During the past two decades, China has been increasing its defense spending, developing new war fighting strategies, and fielding advanced weapons systems. Yet many scholars and policymakers still believe that U.S. dominance will remain uncontested.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- North America
39198. The (Re)-Gathering of the Russian People?
- Author:
- James Keeley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Eight hundred years ago, the Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus' left Russians divided among many subordinated principalities and polities. Over time, the Grand Duchy of Muscovy brought them together under its sway, laying the foundation for the Russian Empire. Over time, the Tsars extended their reach, to the marshes on which St. Petersburg was built in the north, in the south to a port at Sevastopol in the Crimea, to another on the Pacific, Vladivostok, and to the heart of Central Asia.
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Central Asia
39199. The Disciplinary Gaze of the Camera's Eye: Soldiers' Conscience and Moral Responsibility
- Author:
- Erella Grassiani and Desiree Verweij
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Even though the concept of conscience is complex and multi-interpretable , it is still widely seen as the prime source of morally responsible behavior and often referred to as the 'internal witness' and as such the moral guide of our actions. However, what happens to conscience in the practice of violent conflict in the post-modern era? Today's battlefields are not mysterious and unknown places anymore; we can 'join' the happenings live through satellite connections and journalists who are on site. In such an era where it seems that nothing we do stays unseen it is interesting to look at what happens to soldiers' conscience and their moral responsibility when they are being watched ; when their actions are 'witnessed' by outsiders armed with cameras. Is there a relation between the external witness and thus judgment from outside, from a wider sometimes unseen audience and the 'internal witness' (private reflection on one's behavior), what became known as 'conscious'? Does the camera, in reflecting soldiers actions, work as a conscientious witness? Is it the disciplinary gaze of the camera that keeps soldiers from engaging in immoral behavior? Yet, if this is the case how can we explain soldiers photographing themselves or letting themselves be filmed when committing immoral acts?
39200. The Limits and Implications of the Air-Sea Battle Concept: A Japanese Perspective
- Author:
- Matsahiro Matsumura
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The world has seen the international distribution of power gradually shifting, driven in great part by China's rise and America's relative decline. Almost continuously for two decades, China has kept double-digit growth rates in defense spending and, consequently, made military build-ups that are unprecedented in modern international history. China has also demonstrated a series of increasingly assertive diplomatic and military actions as related to its irredentist claims to Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands, the Spratly Islands, and the Paracel Islands, among others. Although the regional security order of the East Asia and the Western Pacific appears sufficiently stable, the US and its major regional allies together have to deter and, if necessary, defeat possible China's armed aggression against the territorial status quo. Doing so is a challenge even for the hegemonic US, on the grounds that the aftermath of the 2008 Lehman Shock has seriously impaired the health of the US political economy, and that its defense spending is anticipated to undergo one major cut after another, at least, for a decade to come.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, America, Taiwan, and East Asia